Wilma Crosses over Cozumel - FLHurricane.com

10:30PM
Portions of the New Advisory are out. Track hasn't changed all that much future wise. STill predicting a high end Category 2 as it approaches Florida. Some models are showing more restrengthening before hitting the shear, so a 3 isn't out of the question. But it could weaken still as well. The NHC doesn't do very well with intensity forecasts.

Winds are down to 140MPH.

9:30PM
Model trends are moving more northward again with the latest GFS and GFDL runs, but as stated before, until the system moves away from the Yucatan, it will be nearly impossible to pick a landfall point. Anyone in the cone of uncertainty needs to pay attention to the system.

The Cancun radar seems to have gone down. The mirror will continue to try to communicate with it, but it's very likely no new images will appear from it.

8:15PM
Wilma is north of Cozumel, and judging by recon reports is moving very slowly, more northward than anything at the moment. But it is over water this is likely a wobble and a more north northwesterly motion will occur soon.

The Florida keys are still asking nonresidents to leave, and will be considering mandatory evacuations for all tomorrow morning which they may implement later.

Original Update
Hurricane Wilma has made landfall in Cozumel and now will make landfall in mainland Mexico, it has slowed down during the day and may stay over the Yucatan for upwards of 24 hours. Weakening the storm, but devistating the resort towns along the area.

Larger shot of the above view

Wilma will likely emerge from the Yucatan as a weaker hurricane, have a slight chance to restrengthen (depends on how much the Yucatan takes out of it) and then hit conditions to weaken again as it gets pushed to the ea st.

Visible on satellite is the "wing" of clouds coming from the northeastern section of the storm, which is now flowing over Florida. This is a fairly good indicator of what direction the storm may take later. However it will be a while before it gains enough latitude for itself to be pushed eastward. Until the storm clears the Yucatan it is nearly pointless trying to pick any single landfall point.

More to come later on Wilma.

Elsewhere... The wave in the east Caribbean is showing signs of organization and may become a depression in day or two. Early models suggest it may turn north over some the of central islands in the Caribbean, but not affect the United States but we'll watch it as well. Hopefully it won't have much time to develop before approaching the islands.

Report Conditions from Wilma in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.

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Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.

Event Related Links

Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: Radar hasn't sent a new image since 7:30 it will still continue to check, but the radar may be down due to Wilma)

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)

Reply and let us know of other links.

Wilma

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page

Wave 99L

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