Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | >> (show all)
Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: willw]
      #61118 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:35 PM

Quote:

oddly even though the computer models and the last track was above where it was before... they have it below look at where it crosses below lake o..... i don't get their forcasting i don't. heh everything is going north and they go south more? confusing





Looks like a "no change" forecast. It was just south of the Big O before. Might as well wait and see if there is continuing trend before changing the forecast. No warnings are up yet, so still have plenty of time.

--------------------
Jim


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tpratch
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: MichaelA]
      #61119 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:35 PM

Radar outage is over for now. With a 3 hour gap, I decided to momentarily let go of the 4 and 6 hour points. Note how close the last two points are? That's as far as she's moved in the last 3 hours. Definitely dragging her heels, this one. What's in the GOM that she's so scared of?



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: bobbutts]
      #61121 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:36 PM

I think...and anyone here with more info than I have can correct me..that the models have their information put in about 6 hours prior to their output, so the info may be old.
As far as the reintensification, that was forecasted tonight (at least by my local stations) at 6pm. They said it would "weaken significantly" after it's trek across the Yucatan but "reintensify" once it entered the GOM again. I don't really have a good explanation for that reasoning, though. They didn't really explain "why", if you know what I mean.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: tpratch]
      #61124 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:39 PM

Much as being slow is bad for the Yucatan - it is OK by me here in FL - I hope she emerges in the Gulf in a much weakened state

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: Colleen A.]
      #61127 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:42 PM

Data input for the various model runs varies some -- In general if the Model is run every 6 hours the oldest data input can be is 6 hours (just after the last run) but it can be very recent -- With modern supercomputers the runs don't actually take long to produce

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: Colleen A.]
      #61128 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:43 PM

There will be a window of opportunity for Wilma to reintenisfy over the Gulf IF its inner core is still relatively intact after possibly being over land for awhile. If the inner core is too disrupted then that won't happen. Whatever it reintensifies to in the Gulf, it will likely weaken a little again from that as it approaches Florida, because of an increasingly unfavorable upper-level environment, though the GFDL suggests otherwise. Because of an increase in forward speed, the max winds may tend to increase on the southern side of the system as it approaches Florida, while decreasing on the northern side.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
susieq
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 49
Loc: Panhandle
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #61129 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:45 PM

Any ideas as to why Pensacola's chance of having this hurricane jumped from a five to a ten percent chance? I mean -- no way, right?

--------------------
Gulf Breeze girl still not over Ivan

Edited by susieq (Fri Oct 21 2005 10:46 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: susieq]
      #61131 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:46 PM

because the time horizon is now smaller. all the percentages went up.

plus it is the chance of the "CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES"
not a direct hit.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #61133 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:52 PM

Using the Radar image above..thanks, Tpratch.

From present position to the GOM Beach, following the Purple Line. 65nm or 12-13 hours at 5 kts.

Using the last two Points, to the GOM Beach.
55nm or 11 hours at 5 kts.

Noon Tomorrow at the current track and speed. Before Wilma's Center is over the GOM. Give or take an hour and a few miles.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
sara33
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #61134 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:53 PM

Most models trending North...Any comments?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
tpratch
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: danielw]
      #61135 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:54 PM

Grrr...

As soon as I posted that, a new radar image popped up. Her eye is oblong and she wobbled... WWSW... *sigh*

I'll scrap all but the 1hour trend until tomorrow morning and I might just be heading to bed.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 89
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: danielw]
      #61136 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:54 PM

Quote:

Using the Radar image above..thanks, Tpratch.

From present position to the GOM Beach, following the Purple Line. 65nm or 12-13 hours at 5 kts.

Using the last two Points, to the GOM Beach.
55nm or 11 hours at 5 kts.

Noon Tomorrow at the current track and speed. Before Wilma's Center is over the GOM. Give or take an hour and a few miles.





Only problem is present movement toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 3 kt

Its not going that fast


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: sara33]
      #61138 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:56 PM

The models that show the further north solution on that map are generally not reliable and not used for track guidance by NHC. The two models on that map that are cited by NHC in their discussions are the GFDL and the UKMET.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
willw
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 32
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: sara33]
      #61139 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:56 PM

Quote:

Most models trending North...Any comments?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif


Will take 2-3 more computer runs before NHC would ever change the track. they are dead set on southern florida. I don't buy it to be honest.. Usually wherever they predict first is where it doesn't go. We'll see what happens though.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
komi
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 43
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #61140 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:56 PM

What thay say on WC, after turn on the way to FLA, will be much faster moving storm, probably 25-30 mph over FLA, maybe more .. what will give us about 6 hours of strong wind ....

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
willw
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 32
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #61141 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:56 PM

Quote:

The models that show the further north solution on that map are generally not reliable and not used for track guidance by NHC. The two models on that map that are cited by NHC in their discussions are the GFDL and the UKMET.


gfdl is trending north now.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
sara33
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: sara33]
      #61142 - Fri Oct 21 2005 10:58 PM

But they (GFDL)are trending North of earlier tracks... Not "wishcasting" just noticing


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
willw
Weather Watcher


Reged:
Posts: 32
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: sara33]
      #61143 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:01 PM

Quote:

But they (GFDL)are trending North of earlier tracks... Not "wishcasting" just noticing



i agree.. But really nobody knows, i don't think anything is definite on florida landfall.. still could be tampa or could be naples. there has been nothing shown yet on why it wouldn't go north or south... imo it's just relative to how far it goes north before the front influences it...

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: sara33]
      #61144 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:01 PM

NHC forecast is still for landfall near Marco Island......no change.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged:
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: sara33]
      #61145 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:02 PM

Until this thing gets off of the Yucatan, there are probably going to be some fluctuations in the model tracks. Looks like Wilma is finally making its painfully slow move inland.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 798 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 73152

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center