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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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JMII
Weather Master


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Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: dolfinatic]
      #61147 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:04 PM

Quote:

It looks to be elongating . Is this from shearing or interaction with land?




I noticed this too, I think it's a combination of shear and the squeeze play between the two high pressure areas the storm has been stuck in between for the last two days. This explains both the slow motion and excellent outflow. Now on IR image you can clearly see the western side of storm lossing it's colder cloud tops - I assume this is from interaction with the land. Hopefully this is start of the system lossing some it's power.

I was very shocked to hear the local mets forecasting a weaker storm, they almost never do that for fear of people letting down thier guard. All local info I've heard says: Cat 1, Monday afternoon landfall, near Ft. Myers, rapid NE motion across the state, right over Lake O. Effects to be very strong winds in SE quad because the hurricane force winds will be compounded by the forward speed of the storm (25+ mph). Also expect very wet conditions to the N of the track due to the interaction with the cold front coming down. I have no seen alot of info on this aspect, but people to the north should take note, your winds may be lighter but it's really going to drop alot of rain in a short period of time.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22


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satellite steve
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: sara33]
      #61151 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:10 PM

2 points to think about future track --

1) As several recent posts have noted with just a tiny change in direction and change in speed of only 1 or 2 mph Wilmas stay oveer the Yucatan could go from 6 or 7 hours to 17 or 18 --- that can translate into dramatic differences in storm strength in GOM. In terms of track - a stronger storm is more likely to push more N

2) The time and point the storm kind of re-initializes in the GOM will be very interesting because that right now is roughly the boundary of W steering flow --- and again small changes in the near future can translate to many miles down the road at US landfall


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3rdGenFlaNative
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: JMII]
      #61152 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:11 PM

Long time lurker, first time poster here. Can't tell you all how much I appreciate everyone here at this forum. I've been monitoring since mid-season last year (and what a year it was!). Feel like I've learned SO MUCH, and it's only made me eager for more info. In my quest to educate myself on this subject however, I just can’t seem to decipher all the numbers on some of the reports and technical images. Many of the contributors to this forum seem to have a solid working knowledge of the field, and I feel like I’m missing out on some of the data being used to form your opinions. Is anyone aware of a good, well-rounded source (preferably online) that provides basic explanation and instruction in understanding some of the more intricate tools? I’ve poked around on this site, and gathered much useful information, but haven’t found exactly what I’m looking for. If it is here and I’ve missed it, please forgive me, and thank you for all the help!

I’m in Lakeland with husband & kids, have a father in a mobile home in Lake Wales, and a nephew in Port Charlotte. We all got our fill of hurricanes last year and, as you can imagine, are watching Wilma closely. We are as prepared as we can be, but this waiting is maddening! And it seems that whatever we might hope for in sparing still-shellshocked Floridians from more trauma only causes even greater devastation to someone else! I’m very concerned for our neighbors in Cozumel. Can’t get them off my mind.

Hurricane watching is most definitely addictive, IF you can handle the emotional roller-coaster! It's difficult to reconcile all the feelings you experience as you watch these storms develop – the beauty and thrill of watching nature at it’s most powerful, coupled with the anxiety and concern that build when you realize that soon someone’s life (maybe yours or someone you love!) will be forever changed.

--------------------
28.0 N 81.9 W
Inland Tropical Storm Warning
Tornado Watch

Began my entrance into this world during Hurricane Dora, 1964 - Have since experienced effects from: David ('79) - Irene ('99) - Charley, Frances, and Jeanne ('04)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: JMII]
      #61153 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:14 PM

the eye is shrinking and becoming ragged
link
link 2


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satellite steve
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: 3rdGenFlaNative]
      #61154 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:15 PM

Good place to start is at NHC website

Hurricane Hunter data translation can be found here

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/recco.htm

Edited by satellite steve (Fri Oct 21 2005 11:15 PM)


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jjj
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: danielw]
      #61155 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:18 PM

I believe the TWC has been a joke all afternoon. They better get their people out of Key West and head north if they want a story. The new strike probabilities for Cedar Key are as great as that of Key West. Dr. Steve Lyons at 4:00 PM had this storm over the peninsula of Mexico for an amazing 36 hours and all but reaching south Florida as a cat 1 at best. This storm will be in the GOM before noon tomorrow and headed in the direction of Sarasota/Tampa if not further North as a cat 2 or 3. I am not a met (most of them have been clueless also) but I am a 47 year native of Florida and a long time mariner. I was raised reading a radar and know that this spinner will defy the odds. Charley was Tampa's storm 24 hours out and ended up in Punta Gorda. Rita was headed into Houston and ended up on the East Texas border. Wilma will keep the "experts" guessing all the way to the end. And when it is over, and she goes everywhere but where they had thought, the Monday morning quarterbacking will begin.....

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Multi-Decadal Signal
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: satellite steve]
      #61156 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:18 PM

11:00 discussion finaly out

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/220259.shtml

HURRICANE Wilma DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

Edited by Multi-Decadal Signal (Fri Oct 21 2005 11:23 PM)


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satellite steve
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #61157 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:18 PM

More importantly notice bands of heavy convection have decreased dramatically in all quadrants

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dolfinatic
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #61160 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:20 PM

dont think it is shrinking as much as beginning to fill in. Sign of weakening.

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LSUFAN
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: satellite steve]
      #61161 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:22 PM

All the forecasts are so focused on the westerlies taking Wilma to Florida. Is there any chance at all of the westerlies not doing this and Wilma continuing north/northwest?

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #61162 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:23 PM

Quote:

11:00 discussion finaly out

HURRICANE Wilma DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005




GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS FLORIDA...ALL
INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF Wilma AND MAKE APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS.

Notice He said " The Florida Peninsula "

Edited by danielw (Fri Oct 21 2005 11:24 PM)


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satellite steve
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: jjj]
      #61163 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:23 PM

I don't think NHC focuses on any particular site 72 hours out -- The media certainly gets much more 'juice' out of a landfall in a major city

Biggest issue is logistics -- evacuating a major city -- Miami, Houston, NO is much more exciting to the media and unfortunately occasionally they do get hit and damage is more intense due to more people being in harms way


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3rdGenFlaNative
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: satellite steve]
      #61165 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:26 PM

I checked out that link, Satellite Steve - exactly what I was looking for. Thanks so much. Hopefully the distraction will make the time pass faster until Wilma decides to get moving.

--------------------
28.0 N 81.9 W
Inland Tropical Storm Warning
Tornado Watch

Began my entrance into this world during Hurricane Dora, 1964 - Have since experienced effects from: David ('79) - Irene ('99) - Charley, Frances, and Jeanne ('04)


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satellite steve
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: LSUFAN]
      #61166 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:28 PM

No not really

As soon as Wilma gets far enough N all the flow is W to E now and basic physics is going to keep pushing her N into this stream

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html


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Rdietch
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: jjj]
      #61167 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:31 PM

Quote:

I believe the TWC has been a joke all afternoon. They better get their people out of Key West and head north if they want a story. The new strike probabilities for Cedar Key are as great as that of Key West. Dr. Steve Lyons at 4:00 PM had this storm over the peninsula of Mexico for an amazing 36 hours and all but reaching south Florida as a cat 1 at best. This storm will be in the GOM before noon tomorrow and headed in the direction of Sarasota/Tampa if not further North as a cat 2 or 3. I am not a met (most of them have been clueless also) but I am a 47 year native of Florida and a long time mariner. I was raised reading a radar and know that this spinner will defy the odds. Charley was Tampa's storm 24 hours out and ended up in Punta Gorda. Rita was headed into Houston and ended up on the East Texas border. Wilma will keep the "experts" guessing all the way to the end. And when it is over, and she goes everywhere but where they had thought, the Monday morning quarterbacking will begin.....





All i can say about this post is Gotta love snow as its coming early.


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sara33
Weather Guru


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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: satellite steve]
      #61168 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:31 PM

Will we get some new model runs soon?

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: jjj]
      #61169 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:33 PM

Quote:

Dr. Steve Lyons at 4:00 PM had this storm over the peninsula of Mexico for an amazing 36 hours and all but reaching south Florida as a cat 1 at best.




and so did the NHC.

Weather changes constantly, and they give their best report of what they see at that time, which is why the reports update several times a day.


PS - the NHC called the East Texas landfall at 10AM CDT Thursday the 22nd....1 1/2 days before landfall.
link

but they called a "Houston area" landfall a few 5 days head of time.
link 2

but of course, you're focusing on the cone and not the line......right????


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DeLandT
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: jjj]
      #61170 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:34 PM

Its nice to finally know what is going to happen. By the way what is the winning lottery ticket numbers for tomorrow night?

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sara33
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: jjj]
      #61171 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:34 PM

WELCOME
I hear what your saying...we'll see. Thanks for posting


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pincty
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: satellite steve]
      #61172 - Fri Oct 21 2005 11:35 PM

Good post Sat. Steve. That little wobble to the South in the last two frames may be enough to keep it in the Yucatan for a while longer. That would be great news for Florida.

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