Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Hmmm...that sounds to me as if they are beginning to look more closely at the models that have been trending it more northerly (is that a word?) the last few days. They had been saying "ANYWHERE FROM CEDAR KEY TO THE FLORIDA KEYS". Sayint the ENTIRE peninsula is something different.
However, as you look at the radar link, now it DOES look as though it may begin its trek across the Yucatan Peninsula ..although at a NNW @ 3mph, it still may just graze the coast.
Did anyone else notice on that radar how it looked like Cozumel was gonna get another punch?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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komi
Weather Watcher
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Right, all we are looking now for "deep and long" landfall on Yucatan, what is better for Fla, but bad for Yucatan ...
I am trying to remind you, when hurr move offshore, all we will get better picture whats goin on ... All models and predictions will be adjusted until hurr get closer to Fla ..
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tenavilla
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Loc: Tampa Area
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The only problem I've had with today is that their cone is much, much smaller than the 's. The 's 3-day cone goes well north of Tampa, but 's cone stops near Sarasota/Bradenton. Too many people watch to get storm information and their graphic is very misleading.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i'm surprised the didn't revise their disco really quickly before sending it out. has lurched w-sw in the last couple of hours, and this subtle twitch and diversion is likely to add to the time over land. if the nw movment doesn't resume soon expect a ts/cat 1 range storm coming off the north yucatan tomorrow evening. if it does, cat 1/2 during the late afternoon instead.
once over the gulf for 12 hrs or so the storm should begin to reintensify slowly, unless the inner core is completely messed up. it can regain a category or two sunday/early monday as it nears florida. going to keep with the fort myers area as my bullseye, with the range from sarasota to chokoloskee. no keys, i'm thinking.. not that they won't get some nasty weather regardless. i'm not sure why the is killing the intensity as much as it is over florida and off the east coast. they're either overusing ships or discarding the idea that the storm will begin to acquire baroclinic characteristics and deepen that way. i don't see why it won't... nao is still really freakin negative, and there's plenty of high latitude blocking.. this is the sort of pattern that encourages such things. if wasn't showing a sub-950mb system zipping up towards maine every other run i'd probably let this idea go, but i'm not about to as things stand.
the mexican government is really good about evacuating folks, and even though this is a really wicked hurricane there probably won't be many fatalities. on the other hand damage to the cozumel/cancun area has got to be pretty extensive. having a category 4 hurricane sit overhead all day can do that.
that invest 99L seems to have it's stuff together pretty well, but hispaniola figures in its future.. and beyond that it'll be closer to (though the upper environment east of the bahamas looks ok. this little system might squeeze out a named storm, but it's going to be iffy. puerto rico radar shows what looks like a closed circulation right at the convective blow up near 15/65... visibles tomorrow morning might show a depression.
pattern going into the future is looking kinda static--deep trough in the east, mid level and upper ridge centered north of the eastern caribbean. result: waves coming underneath find a favorable environment to act up. there's also the issue of the surface high pressure persisting in the east, which favors synoptically lower pressure over the caribbean. keeps wavering on the when/where (the current system goes up, then there appears to be something acting up in the western caribbean later next week... and something else which may be related moving into the eastern caribbean around then as well). pretty sure we're talking greek letter system(s) before the month is out. early november continues the pattern.
tsfh jr rolls on.
HF 0344z22october
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jjj
Registered User
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It did out West. Good call.
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jjj
Registered User
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Snow did come early out West last week. Great call.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Some of the models should be coming out shortly. If they aren't out right now.
The doesn't usually come out until 0430Z or an hour from now.
Speaking of Models. I checked the Models current mileage error rates at 72 hours. (3 days)
OFCI-82.5nm
NLMC-86.5
OFCL-86.6 (Official Forecast-(not bad)~danielw)
DRCL, MRCL-86.9
CONU-87
OHPC-93
DSHP,DSNS-98.1
SHIP,SHNS-98.1
GUNS-99.4
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crpeavley
Weather Watcher
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Actually Daniel, the is coming out as we speak
00Z21102005GFS
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Domino
Weather Guru
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Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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I am cruising to San Juan on Sunday. Going to be interesting to see what 99L does. Looks like if it does get together it'll shoot north in a couple days. Any thoughts on that? If all things work out I will be able to post directly from the ship. The ship I am on (Explorer of the Seas) has a complete NOAA lab so I'd be able to provide some interesting insight to the area for the next week if anything should pop.
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dolfinatic
Weather Guru
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Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
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gfs no change. still ft myers
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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This is an interesting loop...look at the area extending from Indiana into Ohio...it almost appears that it may be going west-to-east but pulling to the north in Ohio, helping to pull in a more northerly direction.
WV Loop from Midwest
I believe that two of our mets made mention of this little feature at noon, saying it could help pull more to the north. Don't know for sure, though, that's why I posted the link. Lots of stuff out there that could steer her, but the key is WHEN and IF she ever gets out of the Yucatan Peninsula/Channel.
Satellite Steve: is this what you were seeing on the link you posted earlier?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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satellite steve
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Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Don't get too hung up on the cones edges - remember these are just graphic represantations of the range of most likely tracks. The error keeps expanding into the future so the cones widen
The middle portions of the cones however contain the vast majority of the likely tracks and various entites draw their edge lines at 80 or 90 or 95% probabilities of the track being inside the cone.
This means a track at the edge of the cone is unlikely -- certainly many times less likely than one down the middle --- but there are still track possibilities outside the cone. You are not 100% safe outside the cone.
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Tracey
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So much for losing strength. Looks like convection is flaring up again. Intensifying over land?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
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Tracey
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Did she really shift south and west? Mark the southwestern side of the eye wall and loop the image. The eye is shrinking from the north to the south and from the east to the west which does put the eye more on shore, however, the southwestern edge of the eye didn't move.
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DeLandT
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Parrish, FL
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The cold front out of the north is pushing down at a much faster rate than the trough coming out of the west. It appears that will miss the train again...
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Colleen A.
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Interesting radar loop...if you look at the outflow clouds, they are almost north/south....and the forecast points follow an almost due north movement, not as much NW as previously. Looks like a little bit of the eye may still be over water.
God bless those poor people in Mexico...today/tomorrow must be hellacious. We should all be thanking our lucky stars that we may just get a Cat 1 or 2 no matter where it goes in Florida.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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evergladesangler
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Quote:
Did she really shift south and west? Mark the southwestern side of the eye wall and loop the image. The eye is shrinking from the north to the south and from the east to the west which does put the eye more on shore, however, the southwestern edge of the eye didn't move.
She sure did and looks to be moving faster too.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/anim8ir.html
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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We have to remember this was the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic,She will not die easy.Tonight I would say that Florida may have a stronger storm than What they were thinking this morning.Amazing she is still as strong as she is.It is going to be a long weekend here.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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Colleen - Nice representation on that image of the low in central US--with counter-clockwise flow and W to E on its S side. That is going to be the major steering influence in association with the front approaching from the W. Against that flow there is no way for to get further W once she is in its grasp. The opposite was true for /Rita -- they were running along the S side of high pressure with Clockwise flow.
The question of how far N gets on the Fl peninsula is influenced by where the front is when gets there.
Without the winds the forces of spinning bodies direct them away from the equator so tend to drive them N in the Nothern Hemisphere.
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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I pray for all my good friends in Playa Del Carmen,a very sad night for me.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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