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Another likely quiet week in the Atlantic Basin, and likely will remain quiet until the first week of August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Beryl) , Major: 328 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 328 (Idalia) Major: 328 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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lawgator
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Tracey]
      #61197 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:21 AM



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

I don't think its a question anymore of IF she landfalls on Yucatan. In fact, eye on land now and appears to be WNW, as predicted by Steve Lyons earlier today on TWC. Let's see how long she stays there.


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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: lawgator]
      #61198 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:27 AM

dont focus on every wobble. check back in a couple hours, if motion is still same then it is achange of course. otherwise just another of many wobbles this storm has made.

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Colleen A.
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: lawgator]
      #61199 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:28 AM

Yes, she is mostly on the Peninsula...however, click on "Forecast Points" on that radar image and you will see that the official NHC track has her heading NNW, not WNW. The official forecast was to be WNW, but she really hasn't been following their directions.

Colleen. Was She supposed to follow directions?~danielw

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.

Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 22 2005 12:31 AM)


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Goosus
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: dolfinatic]
      #61200 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:31 AM

I agree with a previous poster. To my untrained eye, what looks like a lurch south and west is really just Wilma's eye shrinking as it trudges NNW. If you place your curser at the SW corner of the eye at the coastline and advance the frames, the eye is both shrinking and still moving very slowly to the northwest.

I'm amazed this storm is keeping category 4 intensity and such low pressures seeing as it's interacted with a large land mass for most of the day and the eye has at least partially been over parts of land now for many hours.


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Tracey
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: dolfinatic]
      #61201 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:33 AM

can some explain why the system moving south from the central U.S. won't meet up with the system moving north over Texas and travel through the GOM?

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html


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lawgator
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: dolfinatic]
      #61202 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:35 AM

Quote:

dont focus on every wobble. check back in a couple hours, if motion is still same then it is achange of course. otherwise just another of many wobbles this storm has made.




The West motion started 22 Oct 05 at 0015 Z and has continued for 3.5 hours. I think its more than a wobble. But, guess it depends on how you define wobble, right?



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dolfinatic
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: lawgator]
      #61203 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:37 AM

you have to take into account the shrinking of the center as well. Motion is still a very slow drift nw

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Big Tk
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Goosus]
      #61204 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:38 AM

Right now the steering currents are so WEAK .It will have erratic motion when it interacts with land. I do not see her moving north at all, if anything she's moving just slightly north of due west.

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Brian S
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: dolfinatic]
      #61205 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:41 AM

I was just wondering....Is it possible for a storm of her size moving as slow as she is that she is dumping enough water and storm surge over a very flat area and creating a kind of marsh land for her to travel over and that is what is keeping her intensity up? Just wondering if that was possible.

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dolfinatic
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Brian S]
      #61206 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:43 AM

interesting concept, but i doubt it.

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tpratch
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Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #61207 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:44 AM

You've said as much before, and you said the same the last time a storm went through there.

I'm not trying to be abrasive, but it's far too early (if you haven't heard from them) to presume the worst.

Relax, and know that the area is probably better of than you think (although obviously, the potential is still bad).

I was sleeping, now I will sleep again.

'night all.


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Tazmanian93
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Brian S]
      #61208 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:46 AM

Actually when a storm moves over a marshy flat area they will draw from the existing heat content present. However, it would not draw from the rains. The rains would actually cool the area.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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satellite steve
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Goosus]
      #61209 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:48 AM

We will have to await the next avail data but I doubt Wilma is a category 4 now

Still not good news for Cancun area with very slow motion now and continued heavy rain

Whoever is giving directions to this storm I remained humbled by the intensification earlier this weak and hope she weakens just as fast.


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Tazmanian93
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: dolfinatic]
      #61210 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:49 AM

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but if you look at this link and view time lapse to landfall, you will see it hit 0:00 2x, meaning in essence 2 landfalls.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2005_TWENTY-FOUR/webManager/last24hrs.gif

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Tracey
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Tracey]
      #61211 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:51 AM

Quote:

can some explain why the system moving south from the central U.S. won't meet up with the system moving north over Texas and travel through the GOM?

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html




Can somebody, anybody look at this WV image and give possible scenario, it has been bugging me all night?


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: satellite steve]
      #61212 - Sat Oct 22 2005 12:52 AM

Agreed, last Dvorak5.5-6, prob Cat 3 at this point

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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satellite steve
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #61213 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:11 AM

Looking at the images from cimss I think the 1st count-down stops at edge of eye landfall at Cozumel and 2nd is Yucatan mainland

Last image there estimated winds down to 110 Kts


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danielwAdministrator
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StormCarib Update [Re: satellite steve]
      #61214 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:19 AM

Latest UPDATE (11:35PM CST)
From: "Kevin Alexander Murcko" <cancunkev at hotmail.com>
Date: Fri, 21 Oct 2005 23:39:25 -0600

After talking to several people here in Cancun via the net I have some new information.

It seems the worst of the storm will be here from 3 to 5AM local time when we can expect to see waves up to 8 meters high hitting the shoreline. Several hotels have been reported to be severally damaged, and the Lagoon is now meeting the ocean in various parts of the hotel zone.

I have been asked to record the sounds from inside the apartment, and I am trying to do that now. I will see if I can post something soon.

Thanks once again to everyone for your emails, thoughts, prayers, etc., they are very welcomed.

More to come....

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: StormCarib Update [Re: danielw]
      #61215 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:42 AM

I am sorry guys,but my heart is breaking,I have so many good friends in Playa Del Carmen.I have lost all contact with them.I am remembering all the places I hung out at,and they are all gone.This was such a great place in this world where everyone got along.We were all living in paridise,and we enjoyed life.Very tough night for me.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


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Loc: Valladolid,Mx
Re: StormCarib Update [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #61218 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:56 AM

Just got a tornado warning up the street from me.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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