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Another likely quiet week in the Atlantic Basin, and likely will remain quiet until the first week of August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Beryl) , Major: 328 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 328 (Idalia) Major: 328 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Hugh]
      #60931 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:33 PM

Quote:

Quote:

THere is a brave soul still uploading photos from Cancun at this link from StormCarib. The worst hasn't reached there yet.
I've posted the link in the main thread, but thought it beared mentioning here as well.




My god... what is that guy THINKING???? Of course... these pictures are a good example of why NOT to go out during a category 4 hurricane. I wonder how long he'll be able to provide new images, though... not long I don't think.




well he certinly gets some free publicity for his real estate business.


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the young weatherman
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 23
Loc: Toronto, ON, Canada
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: collegemom]
      #60933 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:34 PM

Quote:

Quote:

From looking at sat images. The last 6 frames, or 3 hours, show about no movement. If anything she is creeping north ever so slightly. Doesn't look like she will bury herself in the Yucatan, but you never know, she could start moving west again.



Is it the cool front we are experiencing here in Arkansas that is supposed to turn this thing east? Someone please tell me exactly what is supposed to nudge this baby once it finally gets enough steam to "walk on through to the other side"?




The cold front that is going to bring cold temparature and rain to southern Ontario in Canada has lowered to Jet stream to move Wilma

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komi
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 43
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: sara33]
      #60934 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:39 PM

Quote:

WOW Komi, Thanks for the photos.




You are welcome .. !

I am in central Florida and i dont see them too much like this ...

Anyway, first time i see spinning and possible tornadic clouds, and i am 18 months in Florida !

There is nothing similar in Europe !

Edited by MikeC (Fri Oct 21 2005 07:41 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #60935 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:40 PM

Dropsonde in the SSE eyewall (which is the stronger side of the system right now) measured 137 kt winds at the surface, while a dropsonde in the NE eyewall measured 102 kt winds at the surface.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 946
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Wilma Crosses over Cozumel [Re: komi]
      #60936 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:43 PM

Ah, now I see. Yes, those are impressive clouds and storms. Look at it from my perspective - Florida native and nearly 55. You'll get used to these, maybe.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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sara33
Weather Guru


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Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: jlauderdal]
      #60937 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:43 PM

Anyone have the link to that latest GFS model. Earlier post said just S. of Tampa

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #60938 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:45 PM

Quote:

Dropsonde in the SSE eyewall (which is the stronger side of the system right now) measured 137 kt winds at the surface, while a dropsonde in the NE eyewall measured 102 kt winds at the surface.




How reliable was the reading in the SSE eyewall, I wonder? 137kts is *JUST* over the threshold of cat 5 (157.55 mph by my calculation, which the NHC would round to 160). Will we see the storm upgraded to cat 5 at the 8pm intermediate advisory, or was this considered a gust? I assume it was a gust.

Edit: Well the 8pm advisory is already out with winds at 140... so I guess it was a gust.


--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Fri Oct 21 2005 07:46 PM)


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: sara33]
      #60939 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:45 PM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Lance Wilson
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 23
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: sara33]
      #60940 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:45 PM

Quote:

Anyone have the link to that latest GFS model. Earlier post said just S. of Tampa




NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE Wilma 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 21

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.4 86.7 320./ 4.1
6 20.6 87.1 295./ 4.1
12 20.7 87.4 291./ 2.8
18 21.1 87.6 332./ 4.2
24 21.3 87.7 334./ 2.5
30 21.7 87.7 3./ 4.2
36 22.0 87.7 353./ 2.4
42 22.5 87.6 14./ 5.4
48 23.1 87.0 39./ 7.9
54 23.9 86.2 48./11.3
60 24.6 84.9 60./13.3
66 25.8 83.3 54./18.2
72 27.1 81.2 58./23.3
78 28.9 78.4 56./30.6
84 31.8 75.6 46./37.5
90 35.9 72.7 35./47.6
96 39.9 70.3 30./44.2
102 43.1 69.7 12./31.9
108 44.7 69.7 358./16.3
114 45.8 69.9 351./10.7
120 46.2 70.5 308./ 6.1


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 946
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: sara33]
      #60941 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:47 PM

A little more on that cold front: East CONUS WV loop
Will it dig as far south as they think? Or is that the one that is expected to miss Wilma and another will come along behind it?

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: sara33]
      #60942 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:48 PM

Not sure if you got an answered PM or not,

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Hugh]
      #60944 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:49 PM

One dropsonde indicating 137 kt winds is not enough evidence to raise the intensity up that high, because it could be more of a gust. There have been several dropsondes prior to this in the 120-130 knot range at the surface though, stronger than the winds at higher levels measured in the same dropsonde, so the wind profile may be a little unusual compared to most storms.

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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 223
Loc: Polk City, FL
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: jlauderdal]
      #60945 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:49 PM

Quote:


well he certinly gets some free publicity for his real estate business.




Yes, because people will be clamoring for real estate in Cancun after this...

18z GFS @ 66 hrs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_066.shtml

Further north than previously, and not exactly a weak system either. This run is more along the lines of what my thinking has been for the past few days.

Tpratch, I'd like to give you a big public thank you for your work with the radar and the track today. That has been VERY helpful. I really appreciate it and hope that you will continue.

Edited by Big Red Machine (Fri Oct 21 2005 07:51 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 946
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: NewWatcher]
      #60947 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:53 PM

That looks like somewhere near Punta Gorda. Not good.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #60948 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:54 PM

Mine too I am afraid, also the GFDL and a couple of the others are following suit. max says cat 1 or 2 but i think higher maybe 2 or 3
it is moving way more northerly than west now and just brushing the coast of the yuc, not thrilling for cent fl i think

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: NewWatcher]
      #60950 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:56 PM

Tampa says Yuck to that one

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: MichaelA]
      #60952 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:57 PM

Quote:

A little more on that cold front: East CONUS WV loop
Will it dig as far south as they think? Or is that the one that is expected to miss Wilma and another will come along behind it?




I just don't see how that front is going to push Wilma EAST as far as they say. The orientation of the front and the position of it just doesn't make sense for that kind of trajectory IMHO. Now, there are two more troughs behind that one I think, and the THIRD one is the one they expect to move the storm out... but it too is oriented wrong for that in my opinion. I still expect a landfall further north in Florida than the forecast, unfortunately.

Edit: Punta Gorda sounds about right... and we know what happened last year when Charlie got near Punta Gorda.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Fri Oct 21 2005 08:01 PM)


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged:
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #60953 - Fri Oct 21 2005 07:59 PM

Just when I thought we might be okay
Christine
St. Petersburg


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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: sara33]
      #60955 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:02 PM

18z GFS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/05102118/1.html

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 946
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Hugh]
      #60956 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:02 PM

I've had a bad feeling about this storm for several days. Maybe the LBAR model will verify - maybe not, but my gut feeling is that landfall will be closer to Tampa Bay.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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