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Another likely quiet week in the Atlantic Basin, and likely will remain quiet until the first week of August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Beryl) , Major: 328 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 328 (Idalia) Major: 328 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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komi
Weather Watcher


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: sara33]
      #60959 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:04 PM

Hmmm ...

Looks to me like this storm already made this "Yucatan turn" ...


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Lance Wilson
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: komi]
      #60960 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:05 PM

Quote:

Hmmm ...

Looks to me like this storm already made this "Yucatan turn" ...




What do you mean?


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Tracey
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: MichaelA]
      #60962 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:07 PM

No change in coordinates at 8 p.m. yet moving northwest at 4????

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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: komi]
      #60963 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:07 PM

yes it would seem Wilma has decided she doesnt like cancun after all

--------------------
Pam in Volusia County

According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: sara33]
      #60964 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:08 PM

Quote:

Just when I thought we might be okay



Keep your seatbelts on. These October storms can be really unpredictable.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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komi
Weather Watcher


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Lance Wilson]
      #60965 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:08 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Looks to me like i smovin NNE now, or i need more sleep ....


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: NewWatcher]
      #60966 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:08 PM

Lighter note, Mike Siedel is in Bonita Bch and apparently is near a bar in which nearly everyone was dressed for their role on the Flinstones. Better get serious

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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StPeteBill
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: MichaelA]
      #60967 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:09 PM

Quote:

I've had a bad feeling about this storm for several days. Maybe the LBAR model will verify - maybe not, but my gut feeling is that landfall will be closer to Tampa Bay.




HOLY crap, I had just this afternoon, just resolved myself that we were free and clear here in the St. Pete/Tampa area.


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collegemom
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Hugh]
      #60968 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:10 PM

Quote:

Quote:

A little more on that cold front: East CONUS WV loop
Will it dig as far south as they think? Or is that the one that is expected to miss Wilma and another will come along behind it?




I just don't see how that front is going to push Wilma EAST as far as they say. The orientation of the front and the position of it just doesn't make sense for that kind of trajectory IMHO. Now, there are two more troughs behind that one I think, and the THIRD one is the one they expect to move the storm out... but it too is oriented wrong for that in my opinion. I still expect a landfall further north in Florida than the forecast, unfortunately.

Edit: Punta Gorda sounds about right... and we know what happened last year when Charlie got near Punta Gorda.



OK ok cool jet stream might be a factor. We're talking more massive radii here. I see a bit of topography and cooler waters in the gulf. I just don't see an abrupt turn. North hanging then NNE.

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: StPeteBill]
      #60969 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:13 PM

Quote:

HOLY crap, I had just this afternoon, just resolved myself that we were free and clear here in the St. Pete/Tampa area.



Never "free and clear" until the storm is passed.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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Myles
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: komi]
      #60970 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:13 PM

It doesn't look as though it has turned. It may have stalled, or be creeping north. The eye contracting is also throwing the sense of movement off. We need to watch it longer to get a real sense of what it's doing. If it does keep the current movement(I think its barely moving north), then it looks like it may aviod landfall and could stay a cat 3 or even a minimal cat 4. Now it wont maintain that in its turn across the gulf, but a cat 3 isn't out of the picture if it stays off land.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: NewWatcher]
      #60971 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:15 PM

Quote:

yes it would seem Wilma has decided she doesnt like cancun after all




If I hear one more weather man talk about how much Wilma is going to weaken significantly from spending so much time over land, I think I'm going to implode. Yes, it will weaken IF it spends ANY time over land... but... it's NOT OVER LAND. The eye is centered just to the north of Cozumel... and appears to be moving just east of due north. The next land mass it should encounter on this track is Florida. There is absolutely no evidence that the storm is currently moving northwest.... and there hasn't been any evidence of a westward component to the movement since it made landfall officially at Cozumel.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Hugh
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: collegemom]
      #60973 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:17 PM

Quote:


OK ok cool jet stream might be a factor. We're talking more massive radii here. I see a bit of topography and cooler waters in the gulf. I just don't see an abrupt turn. North hanging then NNE.




Meaning what, exactly, long-term? Where would that put landfall in Florida?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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komi
Weather Watcher


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Hugh]
      #60974 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:17 PM

will c in the morning where this going ... maybe is effeted by getting closer to land, or - is turn ... i hope i am wrong but looks to me like turn ...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeir3.html

Edited by komi (Fri Oct 21 2005 08:20 PM)


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sara33
Weather Guru


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: MichaelA]
      #60975 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:20 PM

Is the LBAR always this stubborn with it's guidance.

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Myles
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Hugh]
      #60976 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:20 PM

Quote:

The eye is centered just to the north of Cozumel... and appears to be moving just east of due north. The next land mass it should encounter on this track is Florida. There is absolutely no evidence that the storm is currently moving northwest.... and there hasn't been any evidence of a westward component to the movement since it made landfall officially at Cozume




You correct on the first statement, its certainly not moving NW and hasen't made landfall. Cant say she is moving NE or even NNE either. The eye is shrinking and she is wobbling so to say it has made a turn is kinda pre-mature. We'll probably know what she is really doing in a couple of hours .


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: komi]
      #60977 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:20 PM

Well it looks like the town I lived in for 3 1/2 years (Playa Del Carmen) is gone.My heart goes out to all my good friends there.Paradise lost.Very sad,one of the coolest places on earth.

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


Edited by ftlaudbob (Fri Oct 21 2005 08:25 PM)


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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: komi]
      #60978 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:22 PM

Just noticed that wunderground has moved the cone back into the Big Bend area. How far north do you think it could possibly go?

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bobbutts
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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: Hugh]
      #60979 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:23 PM

If you ask me it's slim to none this thing is going into the Yucatan.. back to preparing for (another) direct hit from a major 'cane here in Port Charlotte

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: Looks like a stall [Re: komi]
      #60980 - Fri Oct 21 2005 08:23 PM

Looks due North and then slightly West of North. Also, eye is getting smaller. However, with the close proximity if land, I don't think there will be any intensification.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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