MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I know the tendancy is for everyone to jump on the apparant northerly motion, and the models. But I'm not convinced. REally until the storm enters the Gulf, conjecture anywhere along the coast probably belongs in the forecast lounge. but I'm thinking that it will still make landfall on the mainland of the Yucatan, and likely stall out over that part. To think otherwise would require a few hours of trends rather than a disrupted eyewall and wobbles.
So it's a bit early to claim it will miss the Yucatan. (I don't believe it will miss)
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Rdietch
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hard to believe that when a storm goes 7 miles north and the eye has shunk so it does not look to have moved west and right away that means tampa  when if you think about it that is less west so less north it has to go when it goes NE.
But anyway its not going fast anywhere at this moment its not moving.
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weatherwatcher2
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new !! http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 22 2005 01:08 AM)
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stormchazer
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Loc: Central Florida
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I agree Mike. I of course am concerned with an approach closer to Tampa, but I think we need more then just one run before we start thinking its coming further North. Its the same as a yesterday (or was it Wed?) when the models went nuts and everyone started thinking it was Mitch reborn. Lets wait for a few more model runs.
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Jara
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Hugh
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I'm starting to think there really is some misalignment in the floater. In the 0015z image, movement almost due west. In the 0045 image, it moved back to where it was in the 2345z image, for a net zero movement.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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ThirdRay
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
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willw
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eh new is much northern...... then it's previous track
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iuhoosiers
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AFTER SEEING THE NEW MODELS, ARE THOSE CAT 3 WINDS EFFECTING N. BROWARD COUNTY ALL THE WAY UP PAST BREVARD?????????
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Rdietch
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The new GDFL is a little more north but the eye is so huge in that run as it gets to the coast makes it look to cover Ft Myers to the Port.
Look at the largeness if the eye as it gets to the coast hence the more looking north of the Model but that model is on Weather Underground if you want to get a better look at it.
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dolfinatic
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It appears the does not weaken as before. Also does not stall it. It continues to move it across tip of yucatan and out into GOM. probably why there is not much weakening in this model run
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NewWatcher
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as the storm moves closer and closer and then into the GOM we will start to get better and better runs off the models until they prob come into agreement and we can all know approx. where in fl this woman is gonna come ashore. i look forward to more model runs through the night and all day tomorrow
peace
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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iuhoosiers
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ALL THE MODELS ARE LOOK TO BE BETWEEN SARASOTA AND KEY WEST, WHICH PUTS NAPLES IN THE MIDDLE. HOW ABOUT THE UKMET MODEL, THAT IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRUSHES THE YUCATAN, THIS MODEL'S PATH COULD BE RIGHT. REMEMBER THE HIGHEST WINDS FOR THIS STORM IS GOING TO BE AT AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
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danielw
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Since the has come up in the discussion.
All of the following assumption, ideas are based on the 18Z Model alone.
Notice two things about the 18Z run.
116kts prior to landfall and 104-106 after passing over the Peninsula.
This mean a CAT 2-3 over the Peninsula.
The last run of the indicates...AT THAT TIME, the Eye would pass NORTH of Lake Okeechobee.
This would be very similar to the -'04 track but at not such a steep angle. This forecast track would place the Center off of the East FL Coast between Melbourne and Ft Pierce.
Now that's based on the 18Z Model. 50/ 50 chance of that track.~danielw
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EMS
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Am I missing something, or does it appear that is rapidly degenerating? Cloud tops are warming; eye may be opening to the NW.
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NewWatcher
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heres a look at the 18 z runs and the consensus at the top and some 12Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/compare/05102118/M5.html
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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DeLandT
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Loc: Parrish, FL
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I agree and disagree. Tampa is a central location as easily to plot. I spent the last 4 years on the east coast and basically I felt the same way... I lived in New Smyrna Beach for the first two years and then the last two years where spent in Deland. I purchased a home in Deland and never thought a storm would make a direct impact. Charlie proved us wrong....... Then every storm that hit florida seemed to hover overhead and take out anything that was left standing. People are scared and there are some here that have never been in this situation that like to voice their opinions and make people jump.... or react badly. This is the reality of the internet.....
Here is the reality of the storm....
It may or may not hit Tampa. It may or may not hit Sarasota. It may or may not hit Punta Gorda......
It is too early too tell and all we can do is make predictions, everyone is entitled to their own opinion, it is your job to decifier whom you choose to beleive.... If you feel you and your family may be in danger, then leave. Dont let anyone tell you otherwise, If you feel you want to wait, do so but if someone offers you a ride out of the cone, take it....
I am an IT Director and my job is to ensure that our data is offsite and safe in situations like this. Many times that means telling my family to go and I will catch up with them later, sometimes they think I am crying wolf. There is no crying wolf when a hurricane is approaching.....
Amazingly all of the ideas that were thrown around months ago that cost money seem like a good deal.
Why take a chance with your life ..? This storm may weaken and then she may pick back up. I am not going to put my family in a situation where we try out the new florida building codes. I want them out of the area altogether safe and sound. We can rebuild our house, we cannot rebuild our home with the loss of life.....
BTW I live in Sarasota now......
Edited by DeLandT (Sat Oct 22 2005 01:32 AM)
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Ron Basso
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Loc: hernando beach, FL
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Boy, I know its only one model run, but the 18Z is scary for Sarasota County residents. A CAT 3 storm with 120 mph winds smashing into Venice in 66-72 hrs. I don't like the trend in the models shifting north. It started with the on yesterdays runs and continues today. The has been on and off shifting its track between Tampa and Ft Myers. It looks as though the new models are picking up on a slightly more amplified trough which would move more NE rather than E-NE. If I look where has traveled the last 6 hours and where she is likely to go, the new seems to have it pretty close, with just a short run over the NE tip of the YP. All I've heard from the local TV METs and CNN too is that this storm is gonna weaken considerably over the YUC and only be a CAT 1 by the time it gets to FL. Right now, that doesn't look to pan out. There could be surprised people in Tampa tomorrow if the models and trend even slightly more northward. 
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
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RJB
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MichaelA
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I think that is more of a result of the interaction with the land mass. Yes, there is some weakening happening. That is expected.
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Michael
PWS
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collegemom
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Loc: Central Arkansas
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Quote:
Since the has come up in the discussion.
All of the following assumption, ideas are based on the 18Z Model alone.
Notice two things about the 18Z run.
116kts prior to landfall and 104-106 after passing over the Peninsula.
This mean a CAT 2-3 over the Peninsula.
The last run of the indicates...AT THAT TIME, the Eye would pass NORTH of Lake Okeechobee.
This would be very similar to the -'04 track but at not such a steep angle. This forecast track would place the Center off of the East FL Coast between Melbourne and Ft Pierce.
Now that's based on the 18Z Model. 50/ 50 chance of that track.~danielw
I rest my case. I see said the blind person worried about Melbourne. BUT it will be ok. I have no doubt.
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character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking
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MissBecky
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Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Lee County has issued mandatory evacuations beginning Saturday at noon for mobile homes and all the barrier islands, which includes Captiva, Sanibel and Ft. Myers Beach. With more models trending northward, I'm starting to get a very very bad feeling about this.
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