Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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We have the start of a trend in the models; but too soon to think that the models have locked onto something. i am always fascinated by the frictional effects of a coastline on a slow moving storm. Almost seems like drift to the north is from rotational frictional effect. going to be an interesting 12-24 hours. The does concern me, though. Still waiting to see.
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Jim
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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I agree Ron, our local mets started the evening news with, " We have great news, the storm will effect us in a much weakened state(only a cat 1 or TS)". They actually said it was going to spend 36 hours over the Yucatan.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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There are two kinds of Forecasts.
The one the Hurricane Center produces, and the ones that you occasionally get from the local TV Mets.
The echo of the 'weakening' is the correct thing to do right now. As it goes along with the /TPC Forecast.
For a Media Met to go off track too far would be similar to Career Suicide.
We saw this last year, and we will continue to see it. Until something changes.
They All try to One Up the other guy. Whether in the studio in front of a ChromaKey or standing in 75mph winds trying to tell us to stay inside.
Please stick to the Forecast and your Local NWS Office Forecast. As they know the local climatology and conditions. Not to mention the fact that they Are the Official Forecsters.
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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
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OK...let's try this a third time.
Will you guys stop with the wobbling, the northerly motion, etc.
The hurricane is simply oscillating along the (curved) track, which can be clearly seen by the satellite images. And, it is totally on the forecast points.
So...go to the floater, select the wv loop, select the 1845Z image. Now, zoom in a couple times on the eye. Locate a point on the western side, just north of due west, about 300deg (just below where the eyewall stops touching the Yucatan peninsula. Now, move forward four more frames, and watch the rotation of the eye around this point on the eyewall. That's an oscillation. Go back and forth over those five frames and you'll see it better.
Now, zoom out to verify you are at frame 2045Z. Zoom back in. The point of rotation now moves up to just a fraction above the previous one, just above where the SW eyewall stops touching the Yucatan peninsula. Again, move forward four more frames, backward and forward, and now you see that oscillation.
Now you're at 2245Z. This time, the rotation is around the westmost point where the eye meets the Yucatan peninsula (because these oscillations are occuring on a curve, not a straight line). Now move forward three frames, and back, and you can see the third oscillation (up to frame 0015Z).
Sorry but typed in wrong starting point...1815Z is at the end of the prev osc.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Sat Oct 22 2005 01:53 AM)
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funky
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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oh ****, seriously i have been waiting for that turn westward and its not happening. i guess my wife and i are headed to the grocery store tomorrow! time to batten down the hatches here in 34202
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new !! http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
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WE WILL FIX YOU N.O. --- http://media.putfile.com/KATRINA25
Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 22 2005 01:42 AM)
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vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 31
Loc: Seminole country, FL
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please rember that the chat room is open for discussion of to get their go to http://irc.flhurricane.com/
thanks
also would be nice to see this on the main page
it's on the left side bar of all of the forum pages.~danielw
Edited by danielw (Sat Oct 22 2005 01:43 AM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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I will add one thing. It is not usually good for a TV Met to stray from the official. However, I do think it is not wrong for a met to say that it is a very uncertain forecast. Especially since that has been implied by the itself. Sometimes I think the local mets forget to mention that last part. that may be more of wanting to sound authoratative. Sounding unsure is not a good idea in the TV news business.
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Jim
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
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We are hearing in our area that the storm will be a lesser category when it hits Florida but that the Category system will be misleading because of possible interaction with the cold front creating more tornados and more storm damage than the apparent typical category one storm would cause. I am reminded also that when there are no particular conditions guiding or forcing the storm along, it will move poleward due to gravitational influences and physics, I think more of it as being like a compass trying to always point north no matter which way the compass is pointed. If we think about that the only other hold up is the unknown amount of time it will take to move to its next point of impact after it leaves the Yucatan peninsula. I know I read that the schools in Polk County will be closed Monday,. Hopefully it will serve as a gasoline saving measure even if the weather conditions do not warrant the closure. As usual in the tropics, the weather is more interesting than anything on Television. One other point of note, I do not see any one putting away Halloween decorations., If the word does not get out that it is not over for Florida yet, we are going to have many, many headless horsemen, flying pumpkins, and gremlins than anyone ever thought.,
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
I agree Ron, our local mets started the evening news with, " We have great news, the storm will effect us in a much weakened state(only a cat 1 or TS)".
Not getting that here. In fact, they are saying that even if the forecast track and intensity verifies, the Tampa Bay area will still have gale and TS force winds on Sunday night into Monday due to the expanding wind field and the pressure gradient between and the approaching cold front.
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Michael
PWS
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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Remeber though that the model uses source data from the . The has been fairly consistent the last 3 runs, with the last run being the furthest north and the deepest. It has making landfall at hour 66. Cheers!!
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El Gringo Viejo
Registered User
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Posts: 1
Loc: Tuxpan, Veracruz, Mexico
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Flagler County Man posted: My mother-in-law was staying at a resort/hotel in Riviera Maya and she called a few days ago saying they were evacuating her 300 miles west inland to a university...anybody have any knowledge of where this might be?
My best guess would be Merida (capital of Yucatan state) but possibly as far as Campeche (capital of Campeche state). Both are well away from the storm track. And both are nice places, in case she has to pass a few days there. You're fortunate they evacuated her that far away.
Regards
G.V.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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"We are hearing in our area that the storm will be a lesser category when it hits Florida but that the Category system will be misleading because of possible interaction with the cold front creating more tornados and more storm damage than the apparent typical category one storm would cause."
That is my biggest fear. I am on the east side so I know there will be weakening by the time it comes over but tornados scare the crap out of me. Many people forget about that threat.
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BobVee
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 15
Loc: Florida
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Schools will close even in TS conditions because school busses are not allowed to operate in winds greater than 35mph.
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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I still don't understand what models some of you folks are looking at?! I read a few posts about models trending north - when? I checked the models and they still have the system near Naples, Fla. Oh, not that this means anything, but someone said something about Cozumel being "30 miles east of Cancun". This is incorrect. Look at a map and you'll see that Cozumel is South-Southeast of Cancun...actually, it's almost South of there. Thirty miles east would put the little island in the Yucatan Channel.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
Edited by damejune2 (Sat Oct 22 2005 01:55 AM)
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damejune2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
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Whats up with Accuweather? Their forecast is always different from everyone else's. I don't even see them trending with the too much, except storm location and current winds. They have going over extreme south fla as a cat 1.
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Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)
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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
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It seems there has been a lot of staring at the radar and satellite images and speculating about the various wobbles that we usually have on the boards, but once again I am siding with the folks looking at the big picture -- I think we can all agree that is correct in slowing the motion of down and regardless of whether the eye is over the Yucatan or not this will result in weakening as more of the heat is extracted from the same sea surfaces and the Western part of the storm is over land
Then we wait -- as has been pointed out by many over and over this season -- remember Ophelia with all the starts and stops -- when the storms aren't moving prediction of timing and track is the least accurate. When the storm moves far enough N to be picked up by the westerlies we will have a much better idea of exactly which portion of the W Florida coast will be under the gun.
'Til then everyone should be getting ready to deal with the worst without a lot of panic
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MissBecky
Weather Guru
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Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
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Damian, I use the spaghetti models here:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm
If you click on Frame 2 it shows the 0000 guidance. Frame 4 is the earlier 1800 guidance. You can see a northward shift in several of the models. And this has been happening all day.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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The Cuban radar is up and running. Mike, you probably need to mirror it for us.
http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB...(Animacion).gif
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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That would have been me, sorry for the geographical error. Having just been to Playa del Carmen and Cozumel, I know that I had to travel NORTH of Playa del Carmen to get a ferry to go to Cozumel. I may have been off in the exact direction, but it is about 30 miles away from Cancun....if you've never been there, it can be quite confusing, as Playa del Carmen is about 45-60 minutes south of Cancun Airport.
Thanks for correcting my error.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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bobbutts
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 71
Loc: New Hampshire
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Noticed something in this latest http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
It has go way inland on the Yucatan and weaken significantly on an initial track that looks like it will not verify. Then reintensify significantly before taking a track into FL near Boca Grande and then Punta Gorda.
Anyone have an explination for the reintensification (when was calling for weakening earlier) or effects of a less deep trip into the Yucatan as far as track and intensity is concerned?
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