MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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10:45 am edt
Hurricane watches are now up for the Florida Keys, and may be further north along the west coast later today for Hurricane . Hurricane is forecast to near Florida as a category 1 to low 3 system during the day Monday. The forecast track hasn't changed since the prior advisory. Mandatory Evacuations of the Florida Keys are now in affect as of this morning. Everyone in the cone of uncertainty needs to watch this system, has a chance to have a large windfield as it approaches, and storm surge may be an issue along parts of the western Florida peninsula coast. Do not focus on a specific landfall point.
Collier county (Naples area) also has asked for evacuations in certain areas. See the county websites below or local officials media outlets there for more information.
Tropical Storm warnings are up for Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Hati) and watches are up for the Southeastern Bahamas for TD#25.
9:30 AM edt
Tropical Depression 25 has formed in the Eastern Caribbean. Advisories are likely to begin at 11AM.
If it were to become a tropical storm (which is fairly likely) it would be called Alpha since the regular list of storm names for the year has been exhausted. Currently it looks like it will not affect the US, but will affect Hispaniola.
2005 is truly a record breaking year for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in a variety of ways.
Wilma is still over the extreme northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. The situation setting up ahead of it may bring a large area under tropical storm force winds for Florida, the motion of the storm combined with the pressure gradient may create a unique situation over Florida regardless of where the actual system makes landfall. (although this still has an impact for the highest winds)
More to come later
Discussion topic for TD#25
Original Update
Cancun is getting nearly the worst combination of hurricane affects that it could possibly get. The storm is just to the south of it, moving slowly or not at all as a strong Category 3, the position for that coast brings the worst of the surge onto Cancun. (Which won't be as dramatic as Missippi during the because of the deeper sea floor along the Caribbean, but will still be quite bad)
However, the length of time it will be facing these conditions is unreal. Things will get weakend and eventually break from this prolonged exposure. Structures that normally would survive an hour of these type of conditions may fail. In general Cancun is not very pleasant today. Along the main hotel row, storm surge flooding has been reported as reaching into the lagoon.
Cancun could be in conditions like this all day, the storm surge could remain there all day until the eye passes. Playa del Carmen has been within the eye of the system for hours. A reporting station near Cancun has been reporting 90MPH or higher sustained winds for 9 hours.
Beyond this the forecast track has not changed as much, but the intensity may lower some. The forecast still is for a category 2 system making landfall.
More to come as is known.
Report Conditions from in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.
(full size)
Image courtesy Weather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: Radar hasn't sent a new image since 7:30 it will still continue to check, but the radar may be down due to )
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real )
Barometer Bob
WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)
Reply and let us know of other links.
Wilma
* NEW * Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page
TD#25
* NEW * Animated Model Graphic of TD#25
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TD#25 - Static Image
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ILoveflorida
Registered User
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In the previous thread, there was a discussion on tornadoes . It was noted a "Train" sound is heard when one is approaching.
This is not always the case. Last year, during we had a small twister come through our property, that had no train sound, nor was it picked up by NOAA or radar.
We knew of the risk by listening to our weather radio when everything else was down. It's important to follow what the officials say. And in times like these, don't forget to check on your neighbors.
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 89
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The local Paper then other day said there could be a bank of them as the front comes down so i was more worried about them then the storm.I hate to wish rain on anyone or Bad luck but i hope that thing rots right where it is for 24 hours yet.
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Very simple Forcast the longer its over Land the more south it goes.
With this in mind i have not seen much movement lets hope it stays that way for awhile.
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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Tampa, FL
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Also, don't forget about the equally dangerous microbursts that hurricanes spawn as well.
Quote:
In the previous thread, there was a discussion on tornadoes . It was noted a "Train" sound is heard when one is approaching.
This is not always the case. Last year, during we had a small twister come through our property, that had no train sound, nor was it picked up by NOAA or radar.
We knew of the risk by listening to our weather radio when everything else was down. It's important to follow what the officials say. And in times like these, don't forget to check on your neighbors.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Very simple Forcast the longer its over Land the more south it goes.
With this in mind i have not seen much movement lets hope it stays that way for awhile.
Looking at the IR loop.. the increasingly disorganized eye is moving.... albeit at a snail's pace. Looks like it will emerge off the Yucatan into the GOM right on the forecast track, but perhaps a few hours earlier than the forecast (note: I say perhaps, but I doubt it).
Update: Confirmed by ... is drifting northward as of the 8am advisory. Storm is located 10 miles WSW of Cancun. Winds are down to 120mph.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Oct 22 2005 12:02 PM)
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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I was just looking at a composite sattelite. I know it is not a complete picture but is good. I saw an optical illusion of another circulation center in the outflow of the cane north and off in the gulf. Is it any possibility that another center of circulation could form in the outflow if the current center continues to weaken over land? It is not something I am saying will happen, but a question of could it happen, or are the dynamics not there?
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist
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Drifting is the word they use so about what you said.At 8am Drifting.
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Also of note: the local forecaster here said that as approaches and *if* the cold front comes in where it is supposed to, the windfield will expand well north of where it makes landfall; some TS force winds could be felt along with heavy batches of rain on Monday. Imbedded in those could be very strong T-storms, so our weather here is not going to be pleasant. Of course, it will be worse wherever it actually hits, but DO NOT let your guard down if you live further north than where it makes landfall.
And for pete's sake, please do NOT go outside to see if you can "see the tornado coming". Do exactly what they have instructed you to do. Been though enough of them, believe me, most of the time you WILL KNOW if you've got one coming your way.
My heart goes out to the people in Cozumel and Playa del Carmen...it is so beautiful there. Unfortunately, most of the people do not have adequate housing to survive such a beating as they are taking right now. I do know that at the hotel that I stayed at that some of the people that worked there also lived there, but I can't imagine what it must look like right now. Hopefully, their torture will end soon.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Quote:
Drifting is the word they use so about what you said.At 8am Drifting.
Drifting what a cool word and especially fitting for a Saturday morning.
I think will "drift" it's way out into the open Atlantic.
I do think there are multi millions of dollars worth of damage to Cancun and the Hotels there.
Perhaps some new inlets formed.
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nicolew
Verified CFHC User
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
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Mandatory evacuation for all Keys residents today just announced.
12 pm - lower keys
3 pm - middle keys
6 pm - upper keys
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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That's an excellent question. Could you post the link to the composite satellite you saw?
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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emackl
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
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I was reading the stormcarib pleas for help. It's so sad. Honestly, I want her to get off the coast and then die. What those in the area are suffering is just tragic.
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StormHound
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looks to me like she's made it over halfway across the peninsula. At her current rate of drift, the eye looks like it will start emerging over water in a couple more hours. I'd guess is slightly ahead of last nights forecast, and should emerge in reasonably good shape. Fortunately, she won't be the same storm she once was.
Only question now is the timing of the bus ride to Florida.
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Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Lots of important information for Florida in the 5 a.m. discussion:
1-A modest strengthening may occur once the hurricane moves back over water into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later tonight or Sunday.
2-The forecast intensity of while crossing Florida is a blend between the global models which keep an intense hurricane with 100 to 115 knots and the SHIPS model that rapidly weakens the cyclone.
3-Wilma to move on a northeast track with a significant increase in forward speed. Most of the dynamical models are in a better agreement tonight making the official track forecast more certain.
4-Wilma's wind field will probably expand as it crosses the Florida Peninsula.
5-A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later today for portions of central and South Florida and the Florida Keys.
In summary, it looks more and more likely that a cat 1-2 hurricane will cross the Naples-West Palm Beach area very quickly on Monday with a large windfield. However, based on possible modest strengthening and the global models, a cat 3 is not out of the question.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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StPeteBill
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 42
Loc: Pinellas County
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Well here in St Pete I am only planning on brining in the hanging plants, everything else stays where it is. I honestly do not think the winds are going to be that bad here.
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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html
Here is the link. I do realize it is an angle of light, but it sparked my question due to the long time over land of the real eye.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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Actually, on WV loops it looks as though it's being tugged north, with a system from TX merging with the system in midwest that looks to be moving a little bit slower and further north. If that's the front/trough whatever it is that is supposed to pull to the SE, we have to wait and see just how far south it actually gets into GOM before we can say for sure that she will stay further south.
If EVER begins to move...and it looks like she is trying to...then we can look at all the dynamics and make an educated guesstimate of where she will eventually end up in Florida.
Hopefully, that will happen sometime TODAY, so that we all don't lose our sanity...or what's LEFT of it, LOL! 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Additional middle-level dry air associated with trough and spreading out of rather substantial wind field are just two of the factors pointing toward rather significant tornado threat for South Florida on Monday as makes landfall. Further supporting evidence that seems to be a reasonably good analog for this event was hurricane Isbell in October of 1964. She spawned perhaps a dozen tornadoes across southern portions of Florida including 4 of F2 intensity on the fujita scale.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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JG
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 55
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This may sound like an insane question, but it's been a while since I've been close to a hurricane that actually rides along an actual cold front.
Since most models and forecasts indicate that will be riding ENE to NE along the cold front which will drop down near the Tampa area, won't the impact of the warm tropical air meshing with the cold front increase the risk of numerous tornadoes? My thinking is that this is the ultimate collision with the high heat and humidity from the hurricane impacting into the front creating massive instability, primarily in the areas to the north of the storm.
I'm asking this question on every board I subscribe to so I can warn my friends and relatives to be prepared. I'm concerned because we're already set up for massive amounts of rainfall being pinched between the hurricane and the cold front at my location if all the forecasts bear out.
Thanks again to all for the great job everyone does here.
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