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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun [Re: Rdietch]
      #61462 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:46 PM

Not sure if someone mentione this earlier, apologies if it was. Keys Watch is up

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1145 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

CORRECTED FOR ERRONEOUS HEADER

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-231000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1145 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT WATERS...

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF AT LEAST 74
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS WITHIN
36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE DEADLY CLOUD TO
SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CONSULT THE LATEST National Hurricane Center ADVISORIES CONCERNING
THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE Wilma. CONSULT THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN KEY WEST FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE Wilma.

A THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADO THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD AS HIGH AS 10 FEET BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND IN EXCESS OF 12 FEET...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 20
FEET...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS NORTH AND WEST OF KEY WEST...AS WELL AS THE DEEP WATERS
SURROUNDING DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING AS HURRICANE Wilma ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY RAINFALL GREATER THAN ONE INCH...AND WIND GUSTS 40 MPH OR GREATER

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Re: Front Location [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #61463 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:48 PM

Ed...is the cold front that is supposed to be coming down the feature near lower Mississippi and central Alabama or is it not showing it on this WV Loop?

WV Loop

If that's what you're talking about, you're right...I don't see it coming down as far unless it really speeds up. Looks like we might see the tail end of that one IF it's the cold front...but I could be wrong about it being the cold front.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Need some advice.... [Re: lulu]
      #61464 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:49 PM

Someone posted earlier the eye is moving erratically...it is not. Wilma's eye continues to have a pronounced oscilatory movement, and I have determined that the current oscillation of the center is around the outer eyewall (not much left of the center eyewall at this point).

Wilma looks to spin up rapidly once off the coast.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Front Location [Re: Colleen A.]
      #61465 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:53 PM

I believe that's the one, Mets/Mods, more aptly educated, any different perspective?

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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k___g
Weather Guru


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Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun [Re: Colleen A.]
      #61466 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:57 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

I have been following this loop for a few hours and it appears that the dry air entering the Gulf is eroding back to the NW in response to Wilma. Could it be that the hurricane may influence the progression of the front?

Just something I've been watching....


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun [Re: k___g]
      #61468 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:58 PM

It sure looked like a Tug O' War to me the last couple of hours also

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 89
Re: Front Location [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #61469 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:59 PM

what city is about 26.1 Latt in Florida anyone?

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: Front Location [Re: Colleen A.]
      #61470 - Sat Oct 22 2005 01:59 PM

If you look at this link and turn on the fronts you can see it.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Front Location [Re: Rdietch]
      #61471 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:01 PM

2PM update back to Drifting northward (model change coming again) and now a cat 2 storm down to 110 mph...Lets see if she can go to 100 before back out.

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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Front Location [Re: Rdietch]
      #61472 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:02 PM

26.1 is Marco Island

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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 17
Loc: Fort Myers, Florida
Re: Front Location [Re: Rdietch]
      #61473 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:02 PM

Quote:

what city is about 26.1 Latt in Florida anyone?




I know I am in Ft. Myers. and we are at 26.5 north. Dont have a grid to pin point 26.1, but that is a bit south of Ft. Myers


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tpratch
Moderator


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Posts: 341
Loc: Maryland
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #61474 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:02 PM

The storm was definitely being artistic with it's spriograph-like path upon landfall.

I realize that they points are so close to each other that without my usual legend, you may not be able to see the trend.

At any rate, doing things around the house today, so this is the extent of the graphic for now. I'll knockout the bearings at a later point.




*NOTE: there is a degree of uncertainty on the actual center being shown on radar. Based on the elongation and outer wind maxima, it's entirely possible that I'm about 15 pixels left of actual.

YMMV SPSFD


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Need some advice.... [Re: Margie]
      #61475 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:03 PM

I think I was the one who said it was moving erratically, or at least moving erratically between E and W superimposed on a northward drift. I think we are talking about the same thing, only using different semantics. I'm still more focused on the inner eyewall, though that may not be appropriate for much longer. Most of the outer eyewall is over water and it appears to be maintaining itself quite well.

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Front Location [Re: Rdietch]
      #61476 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:05 PM

That would be Naples, precisely, 26.1 would be right around A&B Charter Fishing

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 89
Re: Front Location [Re: engicedave]
      #61477 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:06 PM

Quote:

26.1 is Marco Island





Ok thanks the 12Z GDFL has it right off 26.1 heading to the coast NE so the 12Z GDFL has it going then just north of there so between there and 26.5 the new GDFL is.


Thanks.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Posts: 495
Loc: Tampa
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun [Re: tpratch]
      #61478 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:07 PM

Reminds me of Lite Bright

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Colleen A.
Moderator


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Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
To The Moderators *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #61479 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:09 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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emackl
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Front Location [Re: Rdietch]
      #61480 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:10 PM

I saw that. It has it exiting way to close to Melbourne for my taste. Is there a 12Z GFS. I'm not sure when all the models run. I'd be curious to see that one though.

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Rdietch
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: To The Moderators *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Colleen A.]
      #61481 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:12 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
Re: Front Location [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #61482 - Sat Oct 22 2005 02:12 PM

Quote:

If you look at this link and turn on the fronts you can see it.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html




That's the front graphic I had mentioned earlier in relation to the Buoys. I would have thought based on the front location that Buoy 42002 (25.17 N 94.42 W) would have registered a temperature drop by now. The ones farther north and northeast have already.


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