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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 21 (Milton) , Major: 21 (Milton) Florida - Any: 21 (Milton) Major: 21 (Milton)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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maddie
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Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida [Re: Tracey]
      #61924 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:18 AM

I have been away from the board for a while today getting my In-Laws ready for the storm....am trying to catch up with all of the info...In your opinions how strong do you think Wilma will be when she makes landfall?

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Joshua
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Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida [Re: maddie]
      #61925 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:20 AM

maddie,

Of course, No one wants to uproot the NHC's position on the landfall. Right now they think it will be a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of up to 114 MPH.

Also, in the latest discussion:

"WILMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT COULD HIT AS A
CATEGORY THREE."

Preparation for a 2-3 would be wise, depending on where you live. Always heed the advice of local officials, and keep it locked on your local radio/news program for more information on your area's effects from Wilma


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saluki
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Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida [Re: Joshua]
      #61926 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:21 AM

Longtime lurker, first-time poster with what might be a dumb question: Which model runs go into which NHC advisories? Is the 0000Z GFS, for example, out in time to be factored into the 11 p.m. advisory?

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tpratch
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Movement [Re: Joshua]
      #61927 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:21 AM

Movement is still eratic as her innermost eyewall tries to decide on staying or going.

Slightly north but mostly west of the last point, Wilma does not appear to want to do anything in a straight line.



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Joshua
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Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: saluki]
      #61928 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:23 AM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Big Red Machine
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Re: Tampa [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #61929 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:25 AM

Quote:

00Z GFS still suggests landfall near Ft. Myers around 12Z on Monday. The GFS has been further north of most of the other models in the last couple of runs, so keep that in mind:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif




Actually no, the GFS shows a Sarasota County landfall.

That's fairly far north of the consensus (but in line with my thinking).



Edited by Big Red Machine (Sun Oct 23 2005 12:29 AM)


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Big Red Machine
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Re: Movement [Re: tpratch]
      #61930 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:27 AM

Quote:

Movement is still eratic as her innermost eyewall tries to decide on staying or going.

Slightly north but mostly west of the last point, Wilma does not appear to want to do anything in a straight line.





Of course TP... after all that time in Cancun and Cozumel, who could walk in a straight line? Jamaica... Cancun... Cozumel... S. FL (maybe)... looks like Wilma went on her Spring Break about 6 months too early.


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida [Re: Joshua]
      #61931 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:27 AM

Actually I hate to correct you, but I am not sure you are accurate in stating the 00Z is accounted for in the 11 PM forecast. I think its accounted for in the 5AM. 00Z does not usually finish compiling until after 11 PM

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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Joshua
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Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #61932 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:30 AM

The early-cycle 00Z models (NOGAPS, GFDL, LBAR, BAMM, BAMD, etc.) are all accounted in the 11PM advisories. Late-cycle models are included in the 5AM advisory.

I don't believe this to be accurate. I am trying to validate this information~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 12:46 AM)


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maddie
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Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida [Re: Joshua]
      #61934 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:31 AM

Joshua- thank you , I have been tuned into all the local channels today , but of course you get different opinions on all of the channels as to where and how strong they anticipate the storm may be. Being the novice that I am , I get more informned information here on the board with all of you.......I think I speak for many of the "lurkers" here on the board , you guys just seem to make all of this easier to understand.....

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satellite steve
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Re: Movement [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #61935 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:31 AM

Although she is meandering a bit -- it looks like some of the dry air N and W in the GOM is starting to mix in some -- will be interesting to see if any strengthening of signifacance can occur with the dry air and the oncoming shear

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html


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Joshua
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Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida [Re: maddie]
      #61936 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:34 AM

maddie,

I understand completely. I try to stay away from the news channels around here except for the press conferences directly from the NHC, because they like to hype it up way more/less than it actually is at times. Sometimes, they don't even know what they are talking about, or they are just blatantly mistaken.

Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best is what I always say. Your neighbors may laugh at you for putting up storm shutters, but hey, its better to be safe than sorry, correct?


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida [Re: Joshua]
      #61937 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:34 AM

I did not think GFDL or GFS or NOGAPS were early cycle. However, with said I am always learning something new. Thanks for the input.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Joshua
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Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #61938 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:35 AM

Quote:

I did not think GFDL or GFS or NOGAPS were early cycle. However, with said I am always learning something new. Thanks for the input.




I am not positive if the GFS is early cycle, but I am positive that GFDL and NOGAPS are.


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Brian S
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Re: Movement [Re: satellite steve]
      #61939 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:39 AM

This is a link that was posted here yesterday and it has some updated pics from the damage in what I believe is Cozumel. I wish everyone there the best and hope everyone in florida is prepared and stays safe.

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml


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pincty
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Re: Front [Re: Genesis]
      #61940 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:39 AM

2 local mets in Tampa Bay stated on the late news that the front will be in place and have full confidence that it won't track into the Tampa area. D. Philips stated that he felt that the Ft. Myers track would be accurate to within 50 miles north or south of Ft. Myers. The Hurricane Update on the Weather Channel also showed the front pushing down. I believe we will be safe here in Pinellas County.

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Rdietch
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Re: Tampa [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #61943 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:45 AM

Quote:

Quote:

00Z GFS still suggests landfall near Ft. Myers around 12Z on Monday. The GFS has been further north of most of the other models in the last couple of runs, so keep that in mind:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif




Actually no, the GFS shows a Sarasota County landfall.

That's fairly far north of the consensus (but in line with my thinking).







Do you need a quote from the NHC or Tampa on the GFS? its NOT Sarasota its at the border of Charoltte county need it posted? here is from the NHC The 18Z GFS is well to the
left...calling for a landfall near Charlotte Harbor...BTW 0z is exact same to the .01

Also Tws also has the GFS at there also at 0z so please don't want to argue but Sarasota is wrong. thanks.


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evergladesangler
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00Z GFDL [Re: Joshua]
      #61944 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:46 AM

Has moved south to around Marco Island. Other than GFS, just about everything else is Marco-Keys. The way this thing is meandering and being encroached by the dry air from the west-northwest she might have trouble going north.

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maddie
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Re: Front [Re: pincty]
      #61945 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:48 AM

I'll tell you what frightens me so much ...last year we anticipated Charlie being a direct hit near us ....had all of the windows boarded , generator, supplies ...at the last moment I decided to move my kids to thier grandparents in Polk County , thinking they would be safer., not knowing that at the last minute it would shift and have a direct hit on the area we were staying in....a huge tree fell on the house trapping my kids in the room in the house they were in, for hours.....I do not think I will ever be confident of landfall until it actually happens ......

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satellite steve
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Re: Front [Re: pincty]
      #61946 - Sun Oct 23 2005 12:49 AM

As we all continue to speculate on tracks I have to note that the NHC has been very consistent on the track crossing Florida from the Naples area across Lake Okachobee and exiting in the Fort Pierce/ Hutchinson Island area (Home of both Frances and Jeanne in 2004)

Here is link to Skeetobites spaghetti animation -- compare the NHC track from 10/19 to Now -- pretty similar huh

http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?24

Yabba Dabba Doo


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