MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
|
|
3PM EDT Update
Wilma is still moving northeast, and beginning to accellerate. It is moving at 12MPH. It's eventual landfall intensity is still in question. There are valid reasons for it to weaken (shear, fast forward motion) and valid reason for it to strengthen (water temperatures, eyewall reformation) so the best guess is to see it at a category 2, but it would be wise to prepare for a category 3.
The track is still set for landfall near Naples, with a large area on either side of the storm feeling hurricane to tropical storm force winds. The windfield will likely expand so expect winds to pick up tonight along the peninsula. Sooner in the keys, which already have some rainbands approaching. Folks should be using today to prepare.
The Cancun radar recording has been stopped, and a new recording from the Key West radar has been started here.
447AM EDT Update
Not too much has changed since last night, the track was shifted just a bit south, but the warnings cover the entire previous watch area. The large windfield will still be an issue. It looks like a Category 2 or 1 at landfall is the most likely scenario now.
Hurricane is moving slowly Northeastward. Still no significant increase in strength.
Hurricane Warnings have been extended North of Jupiter Inlet to Titusville.
Hurricane Warnings are now in effect from Longboat Key southward to the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay. And from Titusville southward to the Florida Keys, including Lake Okeechobee.
Tropical Storm Warnings are now in effect from:
Steinhatchee River to Longboat Key on the West Coast.
And From Flagler Beach to Titusville on the FL East Coast.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect fromFernandina Beach to Flagler Beach on the Florida East Coast.
130AM EDT Update
Hurricane is back over the Gulf, and the timeline has pushed warnings into the Florida coastline, from Longboat Key (just west of Sarasota) southward, throughout the keys to Jupiter Inlet on the east coast of Florida. A Hurricane warnings means that hurricane conditions may likely be seen within 36 hours, or in this case Monday. morning (Late Sunday for the Keys)
The remainder of the Hurricane Watch Area (up to Titusville) will likely be upgraded in the morning, as it currently falls outside the 36 hour window.
The forecast track takes it near or just around Naples (this official track has been very consistant for days now) across the state and exiting near Fort Pierce, a little north of where and Jeanne made landfall last year. Right now I do not see any reason to doubt that general track. The angle of approach is nowhere near as oblique as was (Map showing and ) so that also improves the odds of 's forecast track being fairly close.
The bottom line, however is that anyone in the Hurricane Warning area needs to prepare for hurricane force winds. The Hurricane center is expecting a Category 2 or 3 system upon landfall. at that time will be accelerating quickly over Florida so there is not much time for it to weaken before it reaches the East Coast. So the winds will be an issue throughout the direct path. Tropical Storm Force winds likely will be felt over a large area of the Peninsula, and Hurricane force in a smaller area near the center of .
Because of the size of storm surge may be a larger issue than of last year, which was a much more compact, but stronger system.
Listen to local officials and media for more information on your specific area, and if you are in the Hurricane Warning area use tomorrow to prepare. At the very least picking up loose items outside.
More to come tomorrow morning.
Tropical Storm Alpha is moving northwest and will likely move over Hispaniola sometime tomororw, then eventuall be dragge dnorthward and be absorbed by a transitioning later in the week.
Tropical Storm Alpha Discussion
Report Conditions from in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.
(full size)
Image courtesy Weather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: Radar hasn't sent a new image since 7:30 it will still continue to check, but the radar may be down due to )
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Long Run Animated recording of Approach Radar (Flhurricane mirror of NWS radars) (
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real )
Barometer Bob
WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)
Reply and let us know of other links.
Wilma
* NEW * Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page
Tropical Storm Alpha
* NEW * Animated Model Graphic of TD#25
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TD#25 - Static Image
cmss page
|
Doombot!
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
|
|
Looks like it's going to be windy here in Lakeland. This will be a hurricane like no other with the storm one afternoon and a low of 50 degrees that night.
|
Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
|
|
If the lights are out we won't miss the A/C and the mosquitoes won't be a problem either. We'll be able to enjoy a hurricane aftermath for once.
--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
I hope that windy is the best term for it . And nothing else. And even windy is too much.
|
gavsie
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 18
Loc: Seminole Fl
|
|
If two storm masses collide it creates more of a risk for tornadic activity, correct? I'm just wonder how bad we here in the central area will have it. I hate to admitt it but I have done very little to prepare for this one. I guess I will be buying a few things tomorrow.
|
Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 337
Loc:
|
|
One more day to prepare. Just in case.
Batteries, water, fuel, canned food, check your list and make sure.....
then get ready for Monday.........
|
GuppieGrouper
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
|
|
The latest information I read says that the risk of Tornados is limited due to the stable air behind the cold front. I hope they are not mistaken. However I do have a question about when the cane passes into Atlantic, and goes Zooming to New England, If the coast of Florida will continue to be effected by this hurricane all the way up the east coast until she is out of our area?Florida
--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
|
Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
|
|
You are correct regarding increased tornadic activity but the heads up from the NWS still says that the probabilities are slim.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/hazards/?type=tornado
Edited by Multi-Decadal Signal (Sun Oct 23 2005 01:40 AM)
|
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
|
|
Tornadic activity is likely -- mostly concentrated ahead of frontal boundary and SE of 's circulation center - at least by current forecast Seminole County is likely to be on N and thereby safer side of the circulation center
|
gavsie
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 18
Loc: Seminole Fl
|
|
I think I like tornados less than hurricanes. I was hoping there might not be too much of an issue with them. After living aroung tornado alley I think I can do without them. 
|
satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 51
Loc: Satellite Bch FL
|
|
as is likely to be moving along at >20mph and the frontal boundary will push by behind her with cooler/dryer air E coast of Fl is not likely to have lingering effects
High temps Tues are likely to be in low 70's lows in 50's with clear skies
|
mojorox
Weather Watcher
Reged:
Posts: 46
Loc: Orlando
|
|
The 11:55 NWS melbourne statement is pretty intense. They stress that the track is still uncertain and to be ready for some wind.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Local+Statement
Edited by mojorox (Sun Oct 23 2005 01:47 AM)
|
jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
|
|
Quote:
You are correct regarding increased tornadic activity but the heads up from the NWS still says that the probabilities are slim.
yeah until this morning at 6 when they issue another product. if you think the probablity of tornados will be low through this event then you have another thing coming.
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 01:56 AM)
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
URNT12 KNHC 230544
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/05:28:40Z
B. 21 deg 49 min N
086 deg 48 min W
C. 700 mb 2759 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 072 deg 079 kt
G. 342 deg 030 nm
H. 962 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO20-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 2024A OB 06
MAX FL WIND 79 KT N QUAD 05:20:00 Z
INNER EYEWALL IS RAGGED
|
Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
|
|
Midnight Sunday - Miami Local Office
...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO
PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING
COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A
PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING LATER SUNDAY...AND COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE STATE AND RAIN BANDS BEGIN
IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING
|
Margie
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged:
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
|
|
Couldn't sleep again, so I came to see if Danny was having a fun time tonight yet.  Yes
Wilma is already having trouble with the dry air.
Earlier when a patch of dry air pushed into the western side while she was over land, she neatly incorporated it into the large eye and then when she moved offshore she closed the gap with convection (now that's the way to make lemonade out of lemons). But that convection just got sheared off again. Also dry air had worked its way completely around the Yucatan and eroded the SE side of the storm, and now that is also happening again, coming very close to the SE eyewall. The convection gets going again and in the next sat frame it has that splat! Lady Cottington pressed fairy, bed head look.
I thought she was trying on her Halloweens Masks?~danielw
--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 02:12 AM)
|
HanKFranK
User
Reged:
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
|
|
most of the guidance from 00Z is very clustered. pretty much all of the dynamic and global guidance is pushing the hurricane across a corridor in florida bound by port charlotte and everglades city on the west coast, west palm and sebastian on the east coast. still personally camping on fort myers. the cat 2/3 official intensity i'm going to roll with, since like the forecast track it agrees with ideas i've had for a while (excepting that i didn't think the hurricane would make it ashore in the yucatan a few days back, and thought tomorrow would be the impact day up until thursday). there's a double eyewall structure and the hurricane will have a very hard time shaking it. got a hunch that it will morph into an asymmetrical system that is slightly stronger tomorrow as shear and momentum increase.
after florida the hurricane will likely continue to be a threat. the official track doesn't favor it, but almost all of the global guidance has the hurricane clipping cape cod and hitting maine or nova scotia late tuesday night or early wednesday morning... as a hybrid baroclinic system. notable that these models show a deepening system. mind that the hurricane may maintain a warm core to quite a latitude as it accelerates ahead of the trough. i wouldn't be surprised if the entire area around the gulf of maine experiences hurricane conditions.
it is worth noting that tropical storm alpha is progged to drive north and entrain into 's right quad in the newer official forecast. with modeling showing deeper penetration of the shortwaves over land and the hurricane undergoing a phasing event, i'm thinking that this solution of alpha rocketing northward is looking more feasible. the tropical storm is going to cross the thick part of the island, so there is a chance it won't survive the crossing or won't recover any from it.
again worth noting that global models show one or two areas of interest next week. the first is the wake of , in the sw caribbean. the hurricane will leave a large weakness in the trades around there, with perhaps a weak sw flow off the pacific. it's at the periphery of the upper ridge dominating the caribbean, with modest surface convergence.. a low pressure area is shown on several models, though none do much with it. the feature is slowly lost or gives way to the other from the east.
the second area is a favorite. shows a low materializing off a wave east of the islands, driving into the caribbean under the subtropical ridge, and developing into a weak tropical system. sketchy near the beginning of november as shows a some energy pulsing into a coastal storm from the nw caribbean... were a tropical system there it would probably lift across cuba. thereafter keeps low pressure in the western caribbean through the end of its forecast cycle. it all isn't quite adding up yet, but there does appear to be the potential for more action in the caribbean. both of these systems have shown up in multiple model runs, just not completely convincing yet.
HF 0608z23october
|
danielw
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
|
|
This update has nothing to do with Hank's post above. Just my bad timing.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
137 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
VALID OCT 23/0000 UTC THRU OCT 26/1200 UTC
MODEL TRENDS...
..HURCN
THE 00Z IS SLOWER AND FARTHER S WITH THE TRACK OF THRU DAY 2 THAN THE 12Z NAM. ON DAY 3...THE CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER LIFTING NWD ALONG THE E COAST...BUT TRENDS FASTER TURNING THE SYS EXTRATROP AND ABSORBING IT INTO THE FNTL SYS ASSOC WITH THE UPR LOW OVER THE GRTLKS/OH VLY. THE 00Z IS MORE SLY WITH THE TRACK OF ON DAYS 1-2 THAN THE 12Z . ALSO ON DAY 2...THE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER E WITH THE SYS...BUT BY DAY 3...THE WRAPS MORE OF THE H5 ENERGY ASSOC WITH AROUND THE NERN SIDE OF THE H5 LOW OVER THE OH VLY/GRTLKS AND SHIFTS THE SFC LOW FARTHER W THAN THE 12Z RUN.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
...OVERALL...
THERE SEEMS TO BE SUPPORT FOR THE SCENARIO IN THE NRN STREAM...BUT IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY IN THE SRN STREAM WHERE THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IS SLOWER AND MORE ELY THAN THE UKMET AND ON DAY 3. IF MOVES FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE H5 ENERGY ASSOC WITH THE SYS COULD GET WRAPPED AROUND THE NERN SIDE OF THE H5 LOW OVER THE ERN GRTLKS LIKE THE UKMET AND ...BUT SEEING THAT THERE IS LITTLE 18Z ENS SUPPORT FOR THIS SCENARIO... THAT THE OTHER OP GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUPPORT THE MORE WLY UKMET/GFS ..AND MOST IMPORTANTLY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A MORE ELY PSN...CAN NOT RECOMMEND THE ON DAY 3 IN THE NRN STREAM. THE 18Z ENS MEAN SEEMS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR NOW AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE PSN FOR AND IT ADOPTS THE H5 LOW PSN OF THE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VLY BY THE END OF THE PD.
..HURCN
THE AND CARRY ON A MUCH SLOWER/MORE SLY TRACK THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THRU FL. AS THE SYS MOVES UP THE E COAST...THE 72 HR OFFICIAL PSN FOR THE EXTRATROP LOW ASSOC WITH IS CLOSEST TO THE CAN GLOB... ...AND 18Z ENS MEAN PSNS...HOLDING THE LOW OFF CAPE COD WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE AND UKMET SOLNS. OVERALL...THE CAN GLOB IS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK. SEE THE LATEST BULLETIN FOR DETAILS ON .
http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus10.KWNH.html
|
FreakedInFlorida
Verified CFHC User
Reged:
Posts: 20
|
|
Thanks for your detailed reply Steve to my inquiry about Fort Pierce. It should be interesting. We've never actually sat through a storm in a house before, but usually opted for a motel or shelter in the past. I imagine the noise will be the scariest. In the shelter, couldn't hear it. Good luck to all in the path and thanks for the advice that everyone shows on here, makes it easier to understand then just what the news says.
|
Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 467
Loc: Tucson, AZ
|
|
fascinating,
does anyone else see what appears to be the inner eyewall reforming?
-Mark
--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
