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Area for development tagged in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf), 20% development in next 5 days (may increase later into next week)
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
 


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4365
Loc: Orlando, FL
Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida
      #62350 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:00 PM

11 PM EDT Update
Wilma is now a category 3 storm. Track has not changed.

Full track and archive here: SkeetobiteWeather.com

9:20 PM EDT Update
Recon is reporting 114 Knot winds at flight level, which equates to roughly 103 knots at the surface, or near 120MPH winds.

8:30 PM EDT Update
The latest recon report suggests 110 Knot winds in flight level, which would equate roughly to 115MPH winds at the surface. It looks like Wilma may become a Major Hurricane this evening once again.

8PM EDT Update
Wilma is strengthening. Up to 110MPH winds, it appears that the shear isn't as great, or rather the relative shear isn't as great as expected. It is likely that Wilma will make landfall as a Category 3 system.

The atmosphere this evening is very ripe for short lived Tornadoes and waterspouts spawned off of Wilma. In fact, several tornadoes have already been reported across the peninsula this evening.

Jim Williams from Hurricane City is doing his Hurricane Warning Show tonight you can listen/view his show Here.

The chat room link here is also open tonight.

Original Update
Hurricane Wilma is making its move toward Florida now racing 14mph northeastward to the Peninsula. The outer Squalls of Wilma are beginning to approach the Keys, and conditions there will deteriorate overnight.

Wilma is still forecast to make landfall near Naples as a high category 2 or low category 3 storm, Wilma has strengthened just a bit in the late afternoon, the windspeed is up to 105 MPH from 100. It has a chance to strengthen a little more before landfall.


For reference the threshhold for Category 3 is 115 MPH. It is expected to exit the state around Jupiter. However one should not focus too much on these points, as the error could be large either north or south. Anywhere in the hurricane warning area should be prepared.

As it is rocketing across Florida, it may begin transforming into an extratropical system, which will likely mean an expansive windfield around the system. Make sure loose items in the yard, etc are brought in if you are in the warning area (Tropical Storm) or have an inland wind warning out for your area.

For east central Florida, expect frequent showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday, with conditions rapidly deteriorating late Sunday evening.
Expect heavy squalls and winds near hurricane force from 9am Monday morning through 1pm Monday afternoon with three to five inches of rain likely between Sunday morning and Monday evening.

Listen to local media and officials for more details about your specific area and please use official sources for information as well. This is an unofficial site and although we make every effort to be correct and help, we do not have the resources and knowledge that the National Hurricane Center does. Always, If there is any doubt whatever, take their word over what you see here or any unofficial source.


A storm surge of nine to seventeen feet is possible on the west coast near the point of landfall, mostly on the south side because of the direction of approach, ie Everglades City and the 10,000 islands area.
Storm surge is also possible in lake Okeechobee up to 5 to 8 feet.

The potential for tornadoes exists throughout the warning areas.

More to come...

Alpha is now a tropical depression and moving north of the island of Hispaniola. Tropical storm watches/warnings for the southeastern Bahamas have been dropped.


Report Conditions from Wilma in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.

Tropical Storm Alpha Discussion

Event Related Links

Long Run Animated Radar recording of Wilma's Florida Approach (Flhurricane mirror of NWS radars)

Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: We have stopped recording this radar, but you still may view Wilma's approach and departure of the Yucatan here)
West cuban Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is in Naples, and has set up equpiment to record the storm in Marco island and in Everglades City see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)

Reply and let us know of other links.

Wilma

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Various Wilma Satellite Imagery
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Floater IR Satellite with storm track/front overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page

Tropical Storm Alpha

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic of TD#25
[url=http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?25]South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of
Various Alpha Satellite Imagery
TD#25[/url] - Static Image
cmss page

Edited by SkeetoBite (Sun Oct 23 2005 11:12 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #62353 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:05 PM

(Repost) Pressure down a little more and the eye diameter is shrinking if the vortex reports are accurate, which would allow for more intensification if it continues.

I assume the increase in winds is due to that one dropsonde in the eastern eyewall I mentioned earlier. The most recent dropsonde in the NE eyewall measured 86 kt surface winds. There is a NOAA plane with an SFMR in the area, which may have some additional data on the surface wind speed. It'll be interesting to see what the discussion says.

URNT12 KNHC 232053
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/20:30:10Z
B. 23 deg 34 min N
085 deg 03 min W
C. 700 mb 2760 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 144 deg 088 kt
G. 044 deg 052 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 8 C/ 3055 m
J. 15 C/ 3048 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C45
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF304 2124A Wilma OB 32
MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 17:16:40 Z


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LizL
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 17
Loc: St Cloud, Fl
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62355 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:12 PM

Osceola County Report
POSTED: 4:47 pm EDT August 17, 2004
UPDATED: 4:22 pm EDT October 23, 2005
NOTE:
Winds of tropical storm force expected to arrive in St. Cloud at 5 a.m. Monday, peaking at 50 mph with gusts to 70 mph around the 11 a.m. hour, and dropping below tropical storm force by 5 p.m.
A state of emergency in St. Cloud will be declared at Sunday night.
EVACUATIONS:
The county will be issuing evacuation information Sunday for residents living in manufactured homes and low lying areas prone to flooding.
CLOSURES:
Osceola Schools will be close on Monday, Oct. 24. As student safety is paramount, Superintendent Blaine Muse has closed all Osceola public and charter schools on Monday, Oct. 24, due to Hurricane Wilma. No employees should report to work unless directed by their supervisor for emergency purposes.
Also, Kissimmee City Hall will be closed Monday, Oct. 24 and all non-essential employees do not need to report to work.
Kissimmee Utility Authority (KUA) offices will be closed for normal business on Monday, Oct. 24. An operations meeting will be held on Monday morning to determine hours of operation for the remainder of the week.

City of St. Cloud offices are closed Monday.

All Barry University sites throughout Central Florida and the Treasure Coast will be closed through Monday, October 24, due to Hurricane Wilma. This includes all programs in the Orlando and Treasure Coast areas, i.e. all sites throughout Brevard, Highlands, Martin, Orange, Osceola, Polk and St. Lucie counties. Barry University has also announced that all sites in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Lee, Collier, Highlands, Desoto, Manatee and Sarasota counties will be closed throughout Monday.


SAND BAGS:


The City of Kissimmee Public Works Department is currently distributing free sandbags to residents until 7:00 p.m.

The city has already prepared 6,000 sandbags and has the capability to prepare another 30,000 if necessary.

The sandbags may be obtained at the Public Works service center located at 2201 Mabbette St., just behind the YMCA off Thacker Avenue.

Residents may pick-up no more than 12 sandbags per household.

The city asks recipients to supply valid ID to verify their address.


INFORMATION:

The EOC will be activated at 2 a.m. Monday and will remain operational until the threat from Hurricane Wilma ceases.


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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: LizL]
      #62357 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:17 PM

We just got our first feeder band here in Port Charlotte, not too bad kinda breezy. I'm thinking a lot of the trees that barely survived Charley aren't gonna make it...

Hurricane Charley '04(Port Charlotte)


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 131
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Cuban Radar <repost> [Re: LizL]
      #62358 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:18 PM

The radar at La Bajada, Cuba has the entire eyewall.
La Bajada Radar

Other Cuban Radar Locations:

Cuban Radar Sites

-Bev


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Rasvar
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 571
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
Re:Position <Repost> [Re: Bev]
      #62359 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:22 PM

That last vortex message is about ten miles at 290 degrees from the 5:00PM EDT position from NHC. Granted, when you have a 45 mile wide eye, ten miles is still in the eye. Don't like seeing that pressure drop continuing. Does not bode well.

--------------------
Jim


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re:Position <Repost> [Re: Rasvar]
      #62360 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:29 PM

No sign yet of increasing shear adversely affecting the system, as noted by NHC in their latest discussion. They seemed to have backed off on weakening the storm much before landfall. The system increasing in forward speed in the same direction as the deep layer flow will mitigate the shear effects somewhat. That is why it looked so dangerous for Florida a few days ago when it looked like a stronger Wilma was going to go through the Yucatan channel... there was not going to be much time for the shear to weaken it once it reached the Gulf. As it is, it is still a large and dangerous hurricane and should not be taken lightly.

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62362 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:37 PM

...Wilma has spent the day traversing over top a local heat content maxim as notable by: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005295go.jpg ....a region indirectly associated with the well-discussed loop. There is a lag-time for response, even in the highly coupled boundary-layer/SS environment of the TC model... Wilma is no exception and we are tending to see colder ct explosions and a weak attempt at a better defined CDO as we type, which will likely continue while she avails of the additional heat injection...

It is not unthinkable that Wilma could go through a 3 hour period of more rapid intensification; we may be on the threshold of seeing that happened this evening. She has little room to spare and I think cat-3 is easy from here on out... Just my opinion. She is also got an awesome outflow channel established NNE, which may also be keyed into the westerlies veering into a front entrance jet structure just N of a stationary boundary in the area... This could all presage a rapid transition scenario just off the SE Coast. Once she gets over land and the western ends of the boundary should start crashing into her backside... rasping in cooler and drier continental air... This will almost immediately establish cold frontogensis because at that time she will be intertwining, rather complexly, with the jet structure associated with a very powerful U/A low settling into the Ohio Valley and will have differential thermal advection in her southern flanks... (1st signal to transition is the establishment of baroclinic boundaries and most models also show mid- tropospheric warm frontal genisis extending out into the open Atlantic as Wilm climbs in latitude, as well)

If you are in Eastern New England, you'd better have contingency plans if you are prone to marine attacks...Just in case... Hurricane Bob did a billion in damage to marine interests along and this "could" conceivable be almost as costly because it will have a much greater areal assault of less winds. We currently have high wind watches established for eastern coastal Massachusetts... 970mb hybrid bomb is crashing NNE up underneath a 1034mb high in Quebec... Umm... Do the math. If the absolute phased scenario pans out and an extratropical low is born of Wilmas potential energy, could be a real press maker. One saving factor is that we are at the astro-low side of the tide cycle...But, with 70mph (potential) sustained NE winds and extremely low bp we are likely going to have at least a 3 to 4 foot storm surge...Tides are slated in the 8.9 foot (mean) during the high tide Tuesday and that could be trouble with 20foot breakers are crashing to shore..

If that were not enough, there are deeper convective elements popping in the vicinity of Alpha as it is moving off the N Coast of Hispanola, over SSTs that are still warm enough for TC, under an upper level anticyclone that is transiently located over the eastern Bahamas... Fairly obvious curved banding suggests that NHC allusion to regeneration may be afoot... This system is modeled to recurve but I have issues with that taking place. The Nor'easter over night is fast escaping and there'll be a natural rebound in the ridge tendencies in it's wake; meanwhile, the U/A low and trough in the Ohio Valley is in the process of taking on deeper meridianal extent, which "should" mean heights out in the Atlantic would teleconnect higher... The combination of these feed-backs would tend to a model solution closer to the 12Z GFDL than those provided by the 18Z run... Not sure why it reverted back to the 06Z-like pathways in the models et al for that matter, because the 12Z made for a better intuitive fit... Actually, for New England's sake, they'd probably better hope the ridge hypothesis above doesn't work out and Alpha recurves and doesn't get caught up in the fruckus of Wilma's rage. It just seems to me that this plot could all get very hairy in a hurry if Alpha explosively regenerates and takes bee-line at Long Island during the next 24 hours, because the models and man, neither would have really seen that coming - or at least I suspect that to this point, that "outside" possibility hasn't really been talked about... But imagine that...having a tropical storm slam in with almost no warning and then have to deal with a transitioning Nor'easter with warm core characteristics... It would be truly rare..

Update 1: Also, not to be insensitive because yes INDEED...I should be focussed on Florida concerns first in deference to urgencies..
Update 2: Judging by recent IR frames I am inclined to think that indeed....a rapid intensification is underway...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 05:45 PM)


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efaulkSWFLA
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 17
Loc: Fort Myers, Florida
Re:Position <Repost> [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62363 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:42 PM

Good Evening all..
FInal preparations are complete, and the wait has begun.. Cant get myself away from football to check out local info, so I am catching up here online. I am expecting hurricane force winds, but still wondering how bad they will be. In looking at that few visable loops I see it "possibly" taking a bit more of a northern (or left) track, than the forcast points.. Is that me reading into this incorrectly? Or is this movement possible now that the storm is picking up its forward speed?

Any info would be excellent...

Edit: the very best info for you can be seen on your local forecast page here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.php?CityName=Fort+Myers&state=FL&site=TBW



Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Oct 23 2005 05:57 PM)


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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
Re:Position <Repost> [Re: efaulkSWFLA]
      #62365 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:47 PM

The eye is coming into view on this radar out of KW

Ft Myers is about to get it's initial heavy stuff

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 902
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re:Position <Repost> [Re: efaulkSWFLA]
      #62367 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:48 PM

Looks pretty consistently NE to me. Better organization now being seen on the vis floater loop. Also, East CONUS WV Loop really shows the trough dropping southward from Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri with a wind/vorticity max in the Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana area.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 1/0/0


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Forum Rules Revisited [Re: MichaelA]
      #62373 - Sun Oct 23 2005 05:58 PM

The site bandwidth could be severely tested today as the storm approaches the coast, but you can help by not posting the obvious and keeping your posts informative. We need to reduce the number of one-liners so that we can keep the site up and running during this serious event. Your help is appreciated. Some one-liners are ok if they are informative - just try to keep the number of them down.

Post FACTS in this thread.. the rest belongs in the Forecast Lounge.

Thank you!


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Genesis
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 125
TORNADO WARNING - TAMPA AREA [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62377 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:03 PM

TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR TAMPA - multiple visual reports of a rope.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
548 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 548 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
FORT GREEN BY 550 PM EDT.
FORT LONESOME BY 615 PM EDT.

AT 545 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ALSO REPORTED SEVERAL
PUBLIC SITINGS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST SOUTHWEST OF ZOLFO
SPRINGS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.


&&

LAT...LON 2749 8200 2762 8186 2787 8212 2768 8223

$$


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re:Position <Repost> [Re: engicedave]
      #62378 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:08 PM

Taking a break from the fourth load of laundry!

Wilma's continuing to look better but at a very slow rate; the area of convection has been steadily growing. She still hasn't been able to get the needed organization around the core.

She's going to be moving over the loop current about the next six hours. There's no sign of the shear they talked about, so as I posted when I got on this am (11ish), this is the time coming up when she will have the best opportunity to intensify, which now looks to be between about 7pm and 2am.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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3rdGenFlaNative
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc: Polk County, FL
Re: TORNADO WARNING - TAMPA AREA [Re: Genesis]
      #62379 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:08 PM

GULP! Tornado warning here in Lakeland, Radar on channel 8 shows a NASTY cell headed our way. This is what has made me nervous all along. Stay safe everyone. Here we go!

--------------------
28.0 N 81.9 W
Inland Tropical Storm Warning
Tornado Watch

Began my entrance into this world during Hurricane Dora, 1964 - Have since experienced effects from: David ('79) - Irene ('99) - Charley, Frances, and Jeanne ('04)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: TORNADO WARNING - SARASOTA COUNTY [Re: 3rdGenFlaNative]
      #62380 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:23 PM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
618 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 618 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF NORTH PORT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK BY 635 PM EDT.
LAUREL BY 640 PM EDT.
BEE RIDGE BY 645 PM EDT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE INTO A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...
SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH...OR LOW SPOT...AND COVER YOUR HEAD
WITH YOUR HANDS.


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harmlc.ath.cx
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 54
Loc: Longwood
Re: TORNADO WARNING - SARASOTA COUNTY [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62383 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:29 PM

Local stations here in metro orlando are asking for everyone to be aware of a strong cell of storms heading north with the possiblities of tornados in the next hour.

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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 70
Loc:
Re: TORNADO WARNING - SARASOTA COUNTY [Re: harmlc.ath.cx]
      #62384 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:32 PM

The link listed for the Key West radar also flashes the Tornado cells/areas in boxes

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

BTW - Click on "Autoupdate" and just let it go...refreshes automatically every 5 min


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Excellent current wind field display [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62385 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:32 PM

Over 200 miles across:

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_field.asp


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4365
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #62389 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:41 PM

Fix for last post. There was an issue with the forums n the last few posts. Nothing was lost, just moved around. It should be ok now, however.


Edited by MikeC (Sun Oct 23 2005 06:45 PM)


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #62390 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:47 PM

I am here in East Polk County just now starting to get some of the "bands"

Funny thing, with Charley last year as his bands came across the pressure in my head was horrible to the point to where nothing would take it away. In the past 20 mins the same thing has happened again. Of course WOW - I just looked out tyhe window an amazing lightening right now!! HOLY COW, that was incredible. Anyway,....there is a bad system heading my way.

For anyone in this - good luck - I know I am a little worried right now with the tornados "coming" at night. I don't like that one bit.

My ex is with the S.O. and as he gets any B.O.L.Os for tornados he will wake me so we can go in to safety.

I hope to hear that eveyrone is safe tomorrow.

-Katie


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Real time Lightning Data [Re: Katie]
      #62391 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:49 PM

http://www.flamedia.com/lightning/light.htm

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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Excellent current wind field display [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62392 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:51 PM

Earliest guess on radar fixes suggests that Wilma may actually be moving more ENE than NE proper ...
in fact, that may be generous because it looks essentially east on this channel:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml

...Obviously, this may be a range related...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 06:51 PM)


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Lake Okeechobee [Re: MikeC]
      #62393 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:51 PM

Palm Beach EOC just on T.V. They are a bit worried at the southeast end of the lake in Palm Beach County about the dike. Once the storm passes the lake to the NE they expect the NW winds to raise the lake 3 to 5 feet at the southeast end.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Prospero
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Alpha Wilma [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62394 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:53 PM

Pretty incredible to see both storms a spinnin' side by side:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html



--------------------
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the young weatherman
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Katie]
      #62395 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:53 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Edited by tpratch (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:32 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: the young weatherman]
      #62396 - Sun Oct 23 2005 06:54 PM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
649 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
.. TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME WESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF YEEHAW JUNCTION...
.. UNTIL 730 PM EDT
AT 649 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO OVER THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE ...3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
YEEHAW JUNCTION...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.
.. THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE CROSS STATE ROAD 60 AND PASS NEAR THE
OSCEOLA AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTY LINE NEAR YEEHAW JUNCTION THROUGH
715 PM...

also thought this was interesting, cuz things are going downhill now for the keys:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
652 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST HAS ISSUED A
.. SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM
.. UNTIL 745 PM EDT
.. AT 648 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
POSSIBLE VIOLENT WATERSPOUT ...AROUND 27 MILES NORTH OF SMITH SHOAL
LIGHT...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 23 2005 06:56 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62398 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:01 PM

latest MESO out of SPC: (storm prediction center)

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0557 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2005
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 836...
VALID 232257Z - 240100Z
TORNADO THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND SRN FL.
WILMA CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD TOWARD SWRN FL ATTM...WHILE INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORM CELLS WITHIN LOOSELY-DEFINED OUTER BANDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ROTATION. ALONG WITH NNWWD-MOVING CELLS MOVING ACROSS THE FL
KEYS...A CLUSTER OF WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS IS ALSO INDICATED FROM
THE TAMPA AREA EWD INTO OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES -- INVOF
WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING W-E ACROSS THIS AREA. THREE TORNADOES
HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST HOUR
-- ONE IN HARDEE COUNTY AND TWO
IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...AND THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION
INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY -- WHERE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY
EXISTS.
EXPECT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FL
WITH TIME...AS CENTER OF Wilma CONTINUES EASING CLOSER TO THE SWRN
FL PENINSULA.
..GOSS.. 10/23/2005
...PLEASE SEE www.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX...

well its down hill now til she passes:

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62399 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:07 PM

Quote:

latest MESO out of SPC: (storm prediction center)
..............................
EXPECT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT TO INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL AND S FL
WITH TIME...AS CENTER OF Wilma CONTINUES EASING CLOSER TO THE SWRN
FL PENINSULA.
..GOSS.. 10/23/2005
...PLEASE SEE www.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...EYW...TBW...JAX...

well its down hill now til she passes:




It's the extraordinary SRH - Storm Relative Halicity - that is in the area associated with that boundary... Winds across the horizontal depth of the surface trough are backing S to N, from the SSE to the ENE... Compounding, you still have to deal with the conservation of angular momentum by land falling hurricanes, and the local spin ups... Basically what you got there are over-lapping mechanics for twisters... Could be an interesting night; could almost envision tornado swarms...


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pcola
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62400 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:07 PM

I noticed the ene motion on the radar also...I know radar can be deceiving, but a ene motion at this point would be a nice thing

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: pcola]
      #62402 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:10 PM

Satellite still shows NE .. There maybe wobbles from time to time or stair stepping. Also keep in mind the radar is deceiving.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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damejune2
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: pcola]
      #62404 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:12 PM

We just had our first squalls come in. Not too gusty yet, but some good hard rain and two tornado warnings - one in Sarasota county and one in Hardee county.

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: pcola]
      #62405 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:16 PM

still looks like a nasty cell on the turnpike area...
(edit: appears this cell is heading north along that county line..)

warning text
here's a better site that may help show locations on a map....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mlb_N0Z_lp.shtml

NOTE* tune to local NWS radio or local TV media for latest...
cuz the internet may not always be up to date!!!

Also was looking at that "violent waterspout" in vis shots... did see the cell had some overshooting to its cloud tops... appears it will stay offshore... it's between radars now and starting to show up on tampa nexrad.

Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 23 2005 07:20 PM)


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willw
Weather Watcher


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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62406 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:18 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: willw]
      #62407 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:19 PM

Hey all please use This thread to report conditions in your area.

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ParrishNStPeteFL
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Pinellas County, St. Petersbur...
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: damejune2]
      #62408 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:22 PM

Heavy rain and lightening has begun in st. pete. I too am concerned about tornados at night, at least in Oklahoma and Texas there are sirens..lol...Good luck to all, thanks for important information.

--------------------
The energy you emit will return to you, have grace and gratitude in all you do.
'Lil Weather Bug


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Lake Toho - Kissimmee]
      #62413 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:28 PM

Quote:

Satellite still shows NE .. There maybe wobbles from time to time or stair stepping. Also keep in mind the radar is deceiving.




She ought to start gaining some latitude pretty soon if she's gonna make Napels... I'm still registering an almost due E motion on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62414 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:31 PM

radar beams are not that accurate that far out.... where eye is now... would be shooting up 25ft and higher... so low "surface center" could be just little off.... expect a wobble all night.... shear to me is not all that bad... she's not feeling to much of effect from the second cold front.... yet!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Thunderbird12
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62415 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:35 PM

There has been a fairly significant improvement in the satellite presentation of Wilma in the last couple of hours. The eye is showing up much better on the most recent image (2315Z) and there is deepening convection around the center. On the long-range Key West radar, the eye looks to be a little irregularly shaped, but that may be an artifact since the west eyewall is just barely in radar range.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62416 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:35 PM

cell is slowly moving:

College of DuPage Meteorology Radar Loop - MLB

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62417 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:37 PM

Quote:

radar beams are not that accurate that far out.... where eye is now... would be shooting up 25ft and higher... so low "surface center" could be just little off.... expect a wobble all night.... shear to me is not all that bad... she's not feeling to much of effect from the second cold front.... yet!




honestly, i don't think shear is going to be that big of a factor with Wilma... she's moving along smartyly with the flow, where as, if she were somehow resisting she'd be more susceptible to shear.. . as long as she keeps moving along and accelerating she's actually more likely to behave as though she were in a light upper wind environment..


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62418 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:41 PM

Still not much sign from the satellite of any shear adversely affecting Wilma at the present time. Upper-level winds are increasing to the north of the system, which is enhancing the outflow to the N and E. Sooner or later, Wilma will start to feel more shear from the southwest, but for the next few hours at least it may intensify some more.

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Storm Hunter
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62419 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:42 PM

yeah... agree and that's not good... i do think she will make it up to cat 3 now... ((low end!))
like others said.... appearance on sats is improving... but would only expect the "core of strong" winds in a small area near landfall... almost like Dennis this year.... Charley last year... the main strong winds in a very small area.... well see how she does tonight!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62420 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:42 PM

Quote:

There has been a fairly significant improvement in the satellite presentation of Wilma in the last couple of hours. The eye is showing up much better on the most recent image (2315Z) and there is deepening convection around the center. On the long-range Key West radar, the eye looks to be a little irregularly shaped, but that may be an artifact since the west eyewall is just barely in radar range.




absolutely...there is definitely an attenuation issue....BUT, what i'm wondering is why this still looks like it's got so much east component - don't think attenuation actually causes storm motion issues...

anyway...i agree with the intensity profiling you've made... i wrote a post awhile back regarding what i suspect might be a narrow window for rapid or near rapid intensification rates.. furthering those points:
a) storm relative shear is quite low now that she is moving along quickly and this will allow her to avail of a in situ lighter u/a
b) she's making use of having traversed the some pretty dern warm heat content during the day
c) ...finally, the enterance region of u/a wind maxim is beginning to excite her polarward outflow channel, which should give her some core ascending assisting for a short time.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 07:46 PM)


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vvvteddybearvvv
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
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Loc: Seminole country, FL
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62422 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:45 PM

please rember the chat room is open for discussion and makes for instant feedback me and a lot of others will be camping out their all night to get thir you go to http://irc.flhurricane.com/

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 07:52 PM)


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emackl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 205
Loc: Indianapolis
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62423 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:47 PM

Will someone please plot these cords? Didn't the GFDL 18 run just have a shift north? I know how to plot but I dont have a plot form and it's hard on the computer.
Thanks
Jackie

ROFL, It's wigged me out so bad I forgot the link:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05102323

Edited by emackl (Sun Oct 23 2005 07:48 PM)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62424 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:47 PM

looks like little sis (alpha) tried to make a comeback.... not to often we see two systems....including this late in the season!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

loop that goes with above:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 23 2005 07:48 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62425 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:50 PM

I just checked the Nexrad Wind Profilers in Southern Florida.
Key West-max of 78kts at 19000ft.
Miami- max of 45kts at 20000ft.
Tampa-max of 58kts at 45000ft.

All of the current winds on the profilers appear to be unidirectional.
Dr Greg Forbes at TWC just displayed One front as Stationary from North of Ft Myers to the Melbourne area.
With SE winds on the south side of the front and NE winds on the North side. Combined with Wilma's wind field this is probably the setup for the spin associated with the Tornado Warnings.

00Z Soundings aren't in as of yet.
12Z soundings from Key West indicated a helicity of near 150m/s/s., and Tampa's helicity was near 100m/s/s.
(I hope I got the m/s/s correct~danielw)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62426 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:51 PM

also a mod could post these links on front page:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/wilma.html Wilma imagery

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/alpha.html alpha imagery

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 23 2005 07:52 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62427 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:51 PM

Quote:

Quote:

There has been a fairly significant improvement in the satellite presentation of Wilma in the last couple of hours. The eye is showing up much better on the most recent image (2315Z) and there is deepening convection around the center. On the long-range Key West radar, the eye looks to be a little irregularly shaped, but that may be an artifact since the west eyewall is just barely in radar range.




absolutely...there is definitely an attenuation issue....BUT, what i'm wondering is why this still looks like it's got so much east component - don't think attenuation actually causes storm motion issues...

anyway...i agree with the intensity profiling you've made... i wrote a post awhile back regarding what i suspect might be a narrow window for rapid or near rapid intensification rates.. furthering those points:
a) storm relative shear is quite low now that she is moving along quickly and this will allow her to avail of a in situ lighter u/a
b) she's making use of having traversed the some pretty dern warm heat content during the day
c) ...finally, the enterance region of u/a wind maxim is beginning to excite her polarward outflow channel, which should give her some core ascending assisting for a short time.




I generally agree with your analysis, though Wilma still has some issues to deal with before that happens. Can the eye clear out (still some stubborn old eyewall fragments around the center) and can the eye contract enough to allow for a more rapid deepening? I guess we are about to find out.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62428 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:51 PM

Quote:

looks like little sis (alpha) tried to make a comeback.... not to often we see two systems....including this late in the season!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg

loop that goes with above:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html




...honestly...not intending to toot one's owh horn here but i discussed that in hammered intensity in a lengthy post near the beginning of this thread....
...and, yes, i agree, not only trying to come back but it is uncertain how much that come-back really will be, and therefore, an issue for me that it isn't getting more consideration further n and even w, as the synoptics seem to connote it "should" be gobbled up in the more massive circulation of Wilma and her transition into some kind of exotic ne u.s. coastal event..


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danielwAdministrator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Hurricane Local Statements-Updated [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62429 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:55 PM

Here is a link to the Updated Hurricane Local Statements.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml

Please check them frequently for updates specific to your area.
They are not to replace any other information. Just to localize some of the information.~danielw


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62430 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

There has been a fairly significant improvement in the satellite presentation of Wilma in the last couple of hours. The eye is showing up much better on the most recent image (2315Z) and there is deepening convection around the center. On the long-range Key West radar, the eye looks to be a little irregularly shaped, but that may be an artifact since the west eyewall is just barely in radar range.




absolutely...there is definitely an attenuation issue....BUT, what i'm wondering is why this still looks like it's got so much east component - don't think attenuation actually causes storm motion issues...

anyway...i agree with the intensity profiling you've made... i wrote a post awhile back regarding what i suspect might be a narrow window for rapid or near rapid intensification rates.. furthering those points:
a) storm relative shear is quite low now that she is moving along quickly and this will allow her to avail of a in situ lighter u/a
b) she's making use of having traversed the some pretty dern warm heat content during the day
c) ...finally, the enterance region of u/a wind maxim is beginning to excite her polarward outflow channel, which should give her some core ascending assisting for a short time.




I generally agree with your analysis, though Wilma still has some issues to deal with before that happens. Can the eye clear out (still some stubborn old eyewall fragments around the center) and can the eye contract enough to allow for a more rapid deepening? I guess we are about to find out.




...i know...and the trouble is that the 'contracting eyewall' scenario is like the latter half of an ERC - lose analogy because it is unclear much of this strange core appearance was for that cause to begin with... trouble with that is, there is really poor predictive skill for timing contractions and so forth... what she really needs is a burst of deep convection amid the inner aspect, to lower that pressure and drive the wind field tighter in... the 8pm advisory is coming out now so we should get a fix on pp... if we see a 5mb drop we can bet that contraction is either underway or about to begin.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Hurricane Local Statements-Updated [Re: danielw]
      #62431 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM

New advisory in, pressure down to 958, winds up to 110. Still heading NE, now at 15.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62432 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM

URNT12 KNHC 232353
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/23:33:20Z
B. 23 deg 59 min N
084 deg 27 min W
C. 700 mb 2744 m
D. 50 kt
E. 312 deg 101 nm
F. 073 deg 071 kt
G. 309 deg 046 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 9 C/ 3033 m
J. 15 C/ 3049 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A Wilma OB 06
MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 23:19:50 Z
GOOD SPIRAL BANDING


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62433 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM

just to confirm our posts:

HURRICANE Wilma INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
... WILMA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
GRADUALLY ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA AND
APPROACHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

here we go at 9:00pm

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
HOURLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATES WILL BE ISSUED BEGINNING
AT 9 PM EDT . THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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LizL
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Re: Hurricane Local Statements-Updated [Re: danielw]
      #62434 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:57 PM

BREAKING NOTE:

Due to the potential of tropical storm force winds associated with Hurricane Wilma, all four Walt Disney World Theme Parks, Typhoon Lagoon, Downtown Disney and Disneys Wide World of Sports will not open tomorrow morning, Monday, October 24. Weather permitting, Walt Disney World may reopen one or more theme parks after the storm passes on Monday to entertain the tens of thousands of Guests currently staying in our resort hotels.


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danielwAdministrator
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Updated [Re: danielw]
      #62435 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:58 PM

The Weather Channel is reporting that Wilma's wind speed is now up to 110mph.
Her pressure has dropped a little too!

I can't find a link for this yet, but will post it a.s.a.p~danielw

DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110
MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. Wilma IS A STRONG CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY... AND Wilma
COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE... STRENGTH AS IT
NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST MONDAY MORNING.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/232354.shtml

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:05 PM)


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62436 - Sun Oct 23 2005 07:59 PM

Pressure steady at 959 mb in the last vortex, though the dropsonde that recorded that pressure measured 15 knots at the surface, so based on that and the drop in 700mb height, the actual pressure is probably 957-958 mb. Still a slow drop, but nothing rapid yet. That is probably still a couple of hours away if it is going to happen.

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typhoon_tip
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Re: Shear [Re: danielw]
      #62437 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:00 PM

Quote:

I just checked the Nexrad Wind Profilers in Southern Florida.
Key West-max of 78kts at 19000ft.
Miami- max of 45kts at 20000ft.
Tampa-max of 58kts at 45000ft.

All of the current winds on the profilers appear to be unidirectional.
Dr Greg Forbes at TWC just displayed One front as Stationary from North of Ft Myers to the Melbourne area.
With SE winds on the south side of the front and NE winds on the North side. Combined with Wilma's wind field this is probably the setup for the spin associated with the Tornado Warnings.

00Z Soundings aren't in as of yet.
12Z soundings from Key West indicated a helicity of near 150m/s/s., and Tampa's helicity was near 100m/s/s.
(I hope I got the m/s/s correct~danielw)




Hi DanielW... I wrote this in a post earlier in this thread and I believe the reasoning is still quite valid:
It's the extraordinary SRH - Storm Relative Halicity - that is in the area associated with that boundary... Winds across the horizontal depth of the surface trough are backing S to N, from the SSE to the ENE... Compounding, you still have to deal with the conservation of angular momentum by land falling hurricanes, and the local spin ups... Basically what you got there are over-lapping mechanics for twisters... Could be an interesting night; could almost envision tornado swarms...[\i]


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62438 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:01 PM

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ESTIMATED TO BE
958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:03 PM)


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Big Red Machine
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Re: Updated [Re: danielw]
      #62439 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:01 PM

recon reporting 104 kt winds.

959 mb pressure.



edit: sorry daniel... you beat me by a second buddy. Great minds think alike.


Edited by Big Red Machine (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:03 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Updated [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #62440 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:04 PM

with houly updates starting next hour... wouldn't be susprised if it happens in 9:00hr... she close to a cat three now... clouds tops on east side are pretty cold.... see how she does with recon out there now....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Big Tk
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Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62441 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:06 PM

If this storm really decides to get it's act together. will there be a change in direction?

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typhoon_tip
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62442 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:07 PM

Quote:

just to confirm our posts:

HURRICANE Wilma INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
... WILMA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENING AS IT
GRADUALLY ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA AND
APPROACHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

here we go at 9:00pm

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...23.9 N... 84.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
HOURLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATES WILL BE ISSUED BEGINNING
AT 9 PM EDT . THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART




right, not surprising...and now we see the -80 sinister black toned cloud tops of utter terror returning to an attempt at a CDO...

it's likely to me that this will in the process of deepening fairly quickly for the next several hours, just as we said - which is somewhat unusual climatologically for hurricanes moving NE in this area of the Gulf, quite frankly, but that's a whole angle i don't want to get into now..

nonetheless, i feel fairly confident that this will be the case because of Wilma's unique orientation with respect to her own motion - within the flow and thus relatively less shear; and, availing of a very intense polarward outflow channel associated with the enterance region of jet fields NW of the stationary/quasi-stationary boundary.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62443 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:09 PM

I just read that Recon has now found flight level winds of 110. Which should equate to a cat 3 if I am not mistaken, right?



Note: This is unconfirmed as of this time.


EDIT: It is confirmed.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



Edited by CaneTrackerInSoFl (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:15 PM)


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Margie
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Re: Updated [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #62444 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:12 PM

What I saw happening and posted about this morning & last night has just started. Timing worked out to be very good for increase in intensity, with the exception the eyewall is still quite large. The 2245Z wv sat image shows she finally got the core tog. Since T12 has started quoting himself maybe I'll try to dig up my post from last night and do the same.

Now expect some strengthening, for some hours will be rapid strengthening, until about 1-2am.

One of the things that has helped her a lot the past 4-5 hours is the feeder band she developed from the Caribbean, where the air is much less dry than the GOM.

Here it is, from noonish...part of my earlier post:

"Looks like some quick intensification starting tonight, if she continues to slowly organize. Again timing of how far along she is in the reorg process when she hits the loop current will determine this to a large extent, even with the other things that factor into intensity."


--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:30 PM)


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Shear [Re: Big Tk]
      #62445 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:12 PM

Quote:

If this storm really decides to get it's act together. will there be a change in direction?




Not likely... Wilma is caught up in the deep layer winds associated with veering and a large negative anomaly in the Ohio Valley (deep trough).... In fact, the only change will make is determined on the orientation of the isoheights she's locked in; they may actually orient more S to N post Florida visit, which would mean a smooth curve N up the coast... But, that will be subtle and registered over longer time lengths... You won't have to worry "as much" about short duration abrupty changes and large wobbles in her track. for lack of better words - locked into governing synoptics of said trough and how it is mass-balanced against ridges.


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62447 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:14 PM

The last recon did not report an eye at all, but instead noted good spiral banding. Perhaps they are also seeing the oddly shaped eye that is apparent from the long-range Key West radar, which seems to be comprised of more than one arc of convection.

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typhoon_tip
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62448 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:16 PM

Quote:

I just read that Recon has now found flight level winds of 110. Which should equate to a cat 3 if I am not mistaken, right?



Note: This is unconfirmed as of this time.




Depends...if that is a flight level none-extrapolated wind field, then you have to take note of the altitude and then fix it to the surface using standard conversion ratios for that altitude...example, 950mb I believe is 90%...So, 110kts =~ 99kts at the surface... I rarely do this conversion so check these number on the web or through other astute users. If that is already the surface estimate though, that's it: it's 110kts... and if that is the case, you'd have somewhere's around the mid 120's mph in common terms. But, I think that was a flight level estimate you've got there??


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Big Tk
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Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62449 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:17 PM

Is there any possibility of this storm hitting north of Fort myers. Because i believe that would put tampa in Hurricane force winds.

Edited by Big Tk (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:18 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62450 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:18 PM

not sure about this warning text.... understand the warning but....

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
812 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
.. TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP
.. UNTIL 900 PM EDT
.. AT 810 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.
.. THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
CAMP HOLLY FISH CAMP BY 830 PM EDT
TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!
TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

BEST ADVICE.... don't wait to hear or "see" it.... if its in your area take cover in a interior room or closet away from windows... DON'T look/WATCH for "POPPING OF ELECTRIC LINES"...especially at night.... MOST likely you will not see it!!!!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
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Extrapolated Track [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62451 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:18 PM

Using the last Two Recon Fixes.
I plotted the heading up to the Florida Coast.

On the Current heading. The Center would come ashore just East of Marco Island.
This is 196.31nm from the 2333Z Recon Center Fix.

Do Not Fix the storm on this point. This is just an extrapolated track. Based on her heading over a 3 hour time frame.~danielw

Remember...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER
...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.


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Lysis
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Re: Updated [Re: Margie]
      #62452 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:20 PM

What effects, if any, would a stronger intensity have on Wilmas track, specifically in regards with her interaction with the surrounding synoptic environment? Obviously, I am having trouble wrapping my mind around this whole setup --which is fascinating to say the least.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:21 PM)


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62453 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:20 PM

The most recent supplementary vortex message found a max flight-level wind of 110 kts in the SE quadrant. It was roughly 40 miles from the center with slowly increasing winds between the center and where the max winds were found, so the wind center is still pretty broad, as you would expect from the satellite.

OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01238 10842 13750 11413 22044
02236 20841 23792 21212 23075
03235 30839 33868 30909 23103
04233 40837 43929 40909 22094
05231 50835 53965 50808 22086
MF235 M0840 MF110



Edited by Thunderbird12 (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:22 PM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62454 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:21 PM

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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typhoon_tip
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Re: Shear [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62456 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:25 PM

Quote:

not sure about this warning text.... understand the warning but....

............................
TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!
TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES.

BEST ADVICE.... don't wait to hear or "see" it.... if its in your area take cover in a interior room or closet away from windows... DON'T look/WATCH for "POPPING OF ELECTRIC LINES"...especially at night.... MOST likely you will not see it!!!!




Actually, having grown up in the Midwest before moving to eastern Massachusetts I can vouch for this.. This is standard for nighttime alert statements and actually makes a good deal of sense. In 1980, an F3 twister tore through downtown Kalamazoo, Mi, and I stood there frozen in awe watching from about a mile away before large hail brought me to run home... You know how when you have a bad dream and you can't run fast... It was that incarnate... Anyway, in the distance you could hear a) a low pitched hum/rumble and b) the sound of various debris popping and snapping... If it's not daylight and you cannot see these things taking place, you have to trust your ears that if that sound is unusual and kind of like...scary sounding? It is, and TAKE COVER.


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danielwAdministrator
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Radius of Winds [Re: Lysis]
      #62457 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:26 PM

Using the hypothetical Landfall Location, just east of Marcos Island.
Would give Hurricane Force winds south of a Bradenton to Melbourne.
And Tropical Storm winds from the Suwannee River to near Jacksonville.


Again...this is a hypothetical area. Based on Wilma's movement over the 3 hour period from 2030Z to 2330Z.~danielw

See Skeetobite's Map pages for graphic versions.


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62458 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:26 PM

Quote:

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.




cool - what is the flight level ...i.e, 950mb, 700mb ...etc?


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62460 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:28 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.




cool - what is the flight level ...i.e, 950mb, 700mb ...etc?



I believe 950.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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trinibaje
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Re: Radius of Winds [Re: danielw]
      #62461 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:28 PM

Quote:

Using the hypothetical Landfall Location, just east of Marcos Island.
Would give Hurricane Force winds south of a Bradenton to Melbourne.
And Tropical Storm winds from the Suwannee River to near Jacksonville.


Again...this is a hypothetical area. Based on Wilma's movement over the 3 hour period from 2030Z to 2330Z.~danielw

See Skeetobite's Map pages for graphic versions.




stupid question.. don't laugh.... that would include miami dade county right?

btw danny i attempted to shutter the house.. but i didn't get finish.. but i have a secure area to be in the downstairs area... hope all goes well...

--------------------
-----------MY 2005 PREDICTION--------
15/10/5


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garrison
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62463 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:29 PM

Looks like 120 -125ish, at landfall, just S of Marco Island,

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62464 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:30 PM

live radar from wesh 2 in orlando

http://mfile.akamai.com/12890/live/reflector:38190.asx

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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amonty
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Re: Shear [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62465 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:30 PM Attachment (953 downloads)

Heres what i've picked up on my GRLevel3 software.

See attachment above~danielw

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:33 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Shear [Re: amonty]
      #62467 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:32 PM

latest information for central florida:
http://www.wesh.com/news/5131657/detail.html


also here's a link to a WESH met flying with the G-IV crew two days ago i think... maybe yesterday..
http://www.wesh.com/video/5146967/index.html

Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:36 PM)


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Margie
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62468 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:33 PM

Quote:

what is the flight level ...I believe 950.




I don't think so!


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garrison
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62469 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:36 PM

700 MB is FL, 950 would be skirting the tree tops

Edited by garrison (Sun Oct 23 2005 08:36 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Hypothetical Wind Fields [Re: Margie]
      #62470 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:36 PM

Using the hypothetical Landfall Location, just east of Marcos Island.

This would give an area of Hurricane Force winds south of a Bradenton to Melbourne line. The Southern Half Of the Florida Peninsula.

And Tropical Storm force winds from the Suwannee River to near Jacksonville line. Basically the Whole Folrida Peninsula!


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62472 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:37 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.




cool - what is the flight level ...i.e, 950mb, 700mb ...etc?




The flight-level is 700mb. A 950mb flight level would not be advised in this situation.

The "eye" has cleared out even more on the 0015Z IR image, though there appear to be bands of convection to the SW and NE of the center that are impinging on the eye, giving it an oblong appearance. It gives the impression of a smaller eye trying to form by wrapping bands of convection closer into the center.


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Shear [Re: Big Tk]
      #62473 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:37 PM

Quote:

Is there any possibility of this storm hitting north of Fort myers. Because i believe that would put tampa in Hurricane force winds.




Firstly, any prediction I render is not official..... It is important that you know that.

Right now, the odds for Wilma-centroid impact on the Tampa/Fort Myers area directly, is lessoning... HOWEVER I cannot stress enough that Wilma is a big critter with a large circumvellate, and you should by no means think this means you're off the hook.. Tropical storm force sustained winds and possible gusts to at least hurricane force, particularly in more intense near CDO type feeder band squalls will rake said areas, even if Wilma's core stays over southern sections. In addition, this TC is apparently already become tornado happy...there are some other circumstances in the area, which are compounding this, accentuating that threat... Numerous tornado warnings have already flown and this will also add to dangers in peripheral areas not being directly assaulted by her core. So, please, if you are in the Tampa/Fort Myers areas, treat this as though you are being directly impacted and pay very close attention to your local instructions by municipalities, because their advise (more times that not) will be advise that may save your life.

off the record, you should have 40 -70 mph winds; the latter more in gusts, which could even be higher... Right now, and this is MY opinion only, Wilma appears slightly S of predicted track... Doesn't mean she won't start hooking N in the next few hours, but that is less likely...So, I personally do not believe Naples will be the landfall, but like I said, a big nasty powerful beast makes the pin point center of circulation almost irrelevant.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: garrison]
      #62474 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:38 PM

LOL. I can't read those reports well yet. Haven't taken the time to study how to read em. :P

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swimaway19
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Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62476 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:39 PM

What do you think the time of landfall will be? The local mets say around 8am, but that sounds a little late to me

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62478 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:42 PM

I have the Hypothetical track on some software here.

As Soon as I get another Vortex fix I will plot that and update whether she appears to be on That track or a different track.

As Tip said. The Tornado Threat is very, very real right now. And It will Only GET WORSE. As Wilma is traversing the state and interacting with a frontal boundary and jet stream.
Take ALL Tornado Warnings seriously...and Take Cover.


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civil2183
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Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62479 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:42 PM

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?

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typhoon_tip
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62480 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:43 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Yeah, thats why I said flight level winds of 110.




cool - what is the flight level ...i.e, 950mb, 700mb ...etc?



I believe 950.




Ok - so that should be a 90% conversion... or 99kts at the surface 114mph ...just shy of cat 3...But there is time and an ever improving sat/rad structure...It's just a matter of time - not that I wish that on anyone!!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Shear [Re: civil2183]
      #62482 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:47 PM

Quote:

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?




Katrina and Rita both spun off F1, F2 and a few F3's in MS and LA.

They all tear up the neighborhood. Some worse than others. I believe the first fatality in MS was from an F2 in the Delta near Belzoni,MS.


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Shear [Re: civil2183]
      #62483 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:52 PM

Quote:

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?




ah kinda....you'd hear it... trust me!


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Joshua
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62484 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:55 PM

Quote:

LOL. I can't read those reports well yet. Haven't taken the time to study how to read em. :P




http://flhurricane.com/recon/

You can now read them


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DrMos
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: danielw]
      #62485 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:57 PM

Based on the 2pm vs. 8pm changes coordinates, it appears Wilma is gaining 0.8 degrees of latitude for every 0.9 degrees of longitude. Going by the 5pm vs. 8pm coordinates Wilma is gaining 0.8 degrees latitude for every 1.0 degree of longitude.

Assuming the 5pm vs 8pm numbers, extrapolation from her current lat/lon of 23.9n, 84.4w would seem to bring Wilma farther north than your calculations. For example,
23.9n, 84.4w
24.7n, 83.4w
25.5n, 82.4w
25.9n, 81.9w

That would bring Wilma onshore somewhere just north of Naples. Do you agree? Moreover, if the 2pm vs. 8pm coordinate changes are used, then that brings landfall even closer to FMY, assuming extrapolation of course.


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danielwAdministrator
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Relayed Post [Re: danielw]
      #62486 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:57 PM

This was sent to me in a PM.
From: Rdietch

Well i can't post till after the storm but anyway i do wish everyone well down there Naples and below.You know im not a wishcaster but did say south of Naples on here 4 days ago so im close but really i wished it would dissapate...

I agree with him wishing you guys the best~danielw
Oh, and I asked him if I could post this. I did edit out the latter portion of it.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Wilma Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Joshua]
      #62487 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:58 PM

We have a pretty strong burst of conection now in the last frame of the IR loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

See the 00:15 UTC image.


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Beaumont, TX
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Re: Shear [Re: danielw]
      #62488 - Sun Oct 23 2005 08:58 PM

I do not know if any tornadoes were recorded in Beaumont but Rita had to have spun off some tornadoes or at least tornadic winds
here.If you look at the destruction you'd know some of it had to be tornadic. Also, the few people I know who
stayed heard the "freight train" sounds. Of course, there is wind damage absolutely everywhere
but the way some of the trees were broken off and twisted it looks like tornado damage. Looks like Wilma may make it to Cat 3.
I hope everyone has evacuated that needed to and that all have made preparations. Will be thinking of everyone and hope for the
best.


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Relayed Post [Re: danielw]
      #62490 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:00 PM

Quote:

This was sent to me in a PM.
From: Rdietch

Well i can't post till after the storm but anyway i do wish everyone well down there Naples and below.You know im not a wishcaster but did say south of Naples on here 4 days ago so im close but really i wished it would dissapate...

I agree with him wishing you guys the best~danielw
Oh, and I asked him if I could post this. I did edit out the latter portion of it.



In that case, I did tell my uncle and several other people Last Sunday that I thought it would hit Naples or a little south of. Not wishcasting, just was taking into account climatology and models.

--------------------
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typhoon_tip
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Re: Shear [Re: swimaway19]
      #62492 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:01 PM

Quote:

What do you think the time of landfall will be? The local mets say around 8am, but that sounds a little late to me




..Take her reco fix translation speed (15mph) and devide it into the distance she is from landfall (or whatever location it is you are interested in) on the heading she's currently on... They are saying NE (which I'm in argument over.... guess I'll have to just suck it up but DanielW recently said he'd help us out by dong a plot analysis soon...) Anyway, the 8pm intermediate advisory had her on 15mph at 365km..."SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA." ....~225miles from the southwest coast of the Penisula... NOTE That provided it stays on this heading and speed, which is not a certainty. If anything, she "should" gain latitude and accelerate, but we'll leave that aside and just say that 225/15 is about 15hours ...I suspect with acceleration this will be around 12Z monday morning, however.. So I agree with them...

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:06 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: DrMos]
      #62493 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:02 PM

I haven't looked at the NHC plots.

I came up with 25min N and 36min E over 3:30.
That would be 0.4N and 0.6E in decimals.
I use the dd mmm format from the aircraft, and convert it to decimals. Divide the minutes(mm) by 60 to get decimals.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Shear [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #62494 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:03 PM

You can just barely see how the cold front is starting to interact with the farthest northerly outflow of Wilma on this loop. Look how the farthest north outflow gets pushed just a tad to the south:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html


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Colleen A.
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Re: Shear [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62495 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:04 PM

I will tell you what we have been experiencing here in Lakeland...T-storms started about 5pm and the most intense had to be from 6-7:30pm. We probably got a .25 to .50" of rain. Lots of lightning and thunder, but not too much wind.
Humidity is still there outside, temperature reading is about 81.
Hope that all in the path of Wilma stay safe as it looks like this storm may be nastier than expected.
Colleen

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Margie
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: danielw]
      #62496 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:07 PM

The eye is clearing out at a rapid rate now.

She appears to be Cat 3 on sat images.

She now has time to achive Cat 4 status before weakening.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:12 PM)


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Shear [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62497 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:09 PM

SPC has upgraded the severe weather risk from "Slight" to "Moderate" over about the southern half of the peninsula. While that may not sound too bad, keep in mind that they only use three risk levels (slight, moderate, high), with "High" risk generally reserved for big tornado outbreak-type days in the Plains. A Moderate Risk is pretty rare for a landfalling hurricane scenario, so the risk of tornadoes is considered to be somewhat greater than normal for a tropical cyclone:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html


FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...ROUGHLY ALONG/NORTH OF A TAMPA/MELBOURNE LINE. THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...ENHANCED CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE HAS
PROVIDE MAIN FORCING/FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN TROPICAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

AS AMPLIFICATION OF CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
CONTINUES TONIGHT...IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE DIGGING
INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS...NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF HURRICANE Wilma INTO
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS WILL OCCUR BY 12Z MONDAY. AS OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND LATER THIS EVENING...AND
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS/SHEAR STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM...TORNADIC POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN FLORIDA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EVIDENT
IN LATEST SOUNDINGS...THIS RISK APPEARS RELATIVELY SUBSTANTIAL.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES
EXISTS...PARTICULARLY LATE TONIGHT IN OUTER BANDS EAST/NORTHEAST OF
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT APPROACHES LANDFALL.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:11 PM)


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Genesis
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Re: Shear [Re: civil2183]
      #62498 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:10 PM

Quote:

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?




I used to chase tornadoes when I lived further north.

Been near several, and through two (one of which had not touched down yet - it went right over the top of me.)

You will hear it, unless you're in the middle of the hurricane and the entire house sounds like its going to come apart already, in which case loud is just loud (e.g. during Ivan last year, I doubt I would have heard a tornado before it got me, simply due to the lack of time to react from the time the sound was distinct from the hurricane's general noisefield to when the vortex got me.)

But in this case, where you're expecting tropical storm sustained winds, yes, you will hear it - provided it doesn't drop down right on top of you (which they can!)

Ivan last year kicked off a bunch of smaller tornadoes around here and an F3 that ripped through Marianna. The destruction path on the latter one was unreal; a friend of mine's home took a tree-spear through the roof; the next lot over was wiped completely clean - the house formerly there was cleanly removed from the foundation with the pieces distributed over a wide area.

Please don't take the threat of tornadoes lightly, and if you wake up in the middle of the night hearing something loud and odd......


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: danielw]
      #62499 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:11 PM

Quote:

I haven't looked at the NHC plots.

I came up with 25min N and 36min E over 3:30.
That would be 0.4N and 0.6E in decimals.
I use the dd mmm format from the aircraft, and convert it to decimals. Divide the minutes(mm) by 60 to get decimals.




Goes to show you what a fool's errand basing early radar fixes can turn out to be... Because now that she is firmly coming into range on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....I can better see a N component evolving... Oh man... IF YOU LIVE IN NAPELS OR ANYWHERE FROM TAMPA SOUTH FOR THAT MATTER, STAY ON THIS RADAR IMAGE! that's going to help you tremendously.

Particularly over the next 4 hours will be telling as to where this is going to landfall, such that you will be confident with ~7-8 hours lead time awareness... This particular type of incursion to the coast is not one that will have very abrupt changes in direction and/or distracting wobbles.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:14 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Oops [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62500 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:14 PM

Thanks for the Update Tip and Thunderbird.
I can only do so much.

If you post a Tornado Warning...Post the whole thing, please.
Not the link. It might be near someone here. And the link could/would delay their seeking safety. Thanks.


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JG
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62501 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:15 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I haven't looked at the NHC plots.

I came up with 25min N and 36min E over 3:30.
That would be 0.4N and 0.6E in decimals.
I use the dd mmm format from the aircraft, and convert it to decimals. Divide the minutes(mm) by 60 to get decimals.




Goes to show you what a fool's errand basing early radar fixes can turn out to be... Because now that she is firmly coming into range on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....I can better see a N component evolving... Oh man... IF YOU LIVE IN NAPELS OR ANYWHERE FROM TAMPA SOUTH FOR THAT MATTER, STAY ON THIS RADAR IMAGE! that's going to help you tremendously.

Particularly over the next 4 hours will be telling as to where this is going to landfall, such that you will be confident with ~7-8 hours lead time awareness... This particular type of incursion to the coast is not one that will have very abrupt changes in direction and/or distracting wobbles.




Is it my imagination or does the southern part of the eyewall look like it's trying to close off, north of the current track. If you look at this map, it does appear a more northern trend was starting this afternoon.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex1.gif


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satellite steve
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: Margie]
      #62502 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:16 PM

Consensus now is Cat 3 based on latest radar Dvorak's -- motion continues to NE -- I expect some of the discrepancy of time of landfall is that we can't extrapolate exactly the 15 mph current forward motion as it is expected to continue to accelerate -- therby landfall will prob be in 11-12hrs not the 15hrs it would take at 15mph

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typhoon_tip
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Re: Shear [Re: Genesis]
      #62503 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:16 PM

Hmmm, I believe tropical system usually spin off weaker tornadoes (F1 - F2). Would this low hum/rumble sound be as easy to hear as it was with the F3?




I used to chase tornadoes when I lived further north.

Been near several, and through two (one of which had not touched down yet - it went right over the top of me.)

You will hear it, unless you're in the middle of the hurricane and the entire house sounds like its going to come apart already, in which case loud is just loud (e.g. during Ivan last year, I doubt I would have heard a tornado before it got me, simply due to the lack of time to react from the time the sound was distinct from the hurricane's general noisefield to when the vortex got me.)

But in this case, where you're expecting tropical storm sustained winds, yes, you will hear it - provided it doesn't drop down right on top of you (which they can!)

Ivan last year kicked off a bunch of smaller tornadoes around here and an F3 that ripped through Marianna. The destruction path on the latter one was unreal; a friend of mine's home took a tree-spear through the roof; the next lot over was wiped completely clean - the house formerly there was cleanly removed from the foundation with the pieces distributed over a wide area.

Please don't take the threat of tornadoes lightly, and if you wake up in the middle of the night hearing something loud and odd......

TAKE COVER!


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collegemom
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Re: Shear [Re: Genesis]
      #62505 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:17 PM

Please don't take the threat of tornadoes lightly, and if you wake up in the middle of the night hearing something loud and odd......

Anyone within the cone should remember to spend the majority of the storm passage in a safe environment. You might feel silly in the bathtub with a mattress over you and the kids but we had a local family (2 years ago) fly in one.
IT was the most amazing story I have ever heard.

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62506 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:17 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

I haven't looked at the NHC plots.

I came up with 25min N and 36min E over 3:30.
That would be 0.4N and 0.6E in decimals.
I use the dd mmm format from the aircraft, and convert it to decimals. Divide the minutes(mm) by 60 to get decimals.




Goes to show you what a fool's errand basing early radar fixes can turn out to be... Because now that she is firmly coming into range on: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml ....I can better see a N component evolving... Oh man... IF YOU LIVE IN NAPELS OR ANYWHERE FROM TAMPA SOUTH FOR THAT MATTER, STAY ON THIS RADAR IMAGE! that's going to help you tremendously.

Particularly over the next 4 hours will be telling as to where this is going to landfall, such that you will be confident with ~7-8 hours lead time awareness... This particular type of incursion to the coast is not one that will have very abrupt changes in direction and/or distracting wobbles.




Is it my imagination or does the southern part of the eyewall look like it's trying to close off, north of the current track. If you look at this map, it does appear a more northern trend was starting this afternoon.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex1.gif




Absolutely...And, I think when this completes we may have bigger problems then cat 2!


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JG
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62507 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:21 PM

Quote:



Absolutely...And, I think when this completes we may have bigger problems then cat 2!




So there it is. I can't wait to see the vortex messages close to 2300. I think we could be looking at another Charley situation with an intensifying storm hitting between Bonita Springs and Fort Myers. The second cold front and the "dry air" and the "shear" does not seem to be intimidating Wilma one iota.


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Margie
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: satellite steve]
      #62508 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:22 PM

Well, nice that somebody noticed! I was beginning to wonder if I should go back and make my text red / bold / large / all capital letters. No question that we now have a major hurricane that is intensifying as we watch. She is directly over the loop current now.

Since she's moving faster, my estimate that she'd intensify until about 1-2 am seems too late now, probably will peak earlier, just after midnight. Why does this always have to happen on the nights before work days? I haven't gone in early or with a decent amount of sleep for days now!

--------------------
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swimaway19
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62509 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:23 PM

Another question: Do you think that the windfield will expand more than projected before landfall?

--------------------
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Swim Away, Swim Far Away....



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JG
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: swimaway19]
      #62510 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:25 PM

Quote:

Another question: Do you think that the windfield will expand more than projected before landfall?




Max Mayfield answered that question on FNC about two hours ago. The answer is YES.


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Joshua
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: swimaway19]
      #62511 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:25 PM

Quote:

Another question: Do you think that the windfield will expand more than projected before landfall?




If it intensifies, the CDO/COC may even contract. This is hard to forecast though, so stay tuned to local media and local officials (NHC/TPC)


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62512 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:26 PM

Quote:

Quote:



Absolutely...And, I think when this completes we may have bigger problems then cat 2!




So there it is. I can't wait to see the vortex messages close to 2300. I think we could be looking at another Charley situation with an intensifying storm hitting between Bonita Springs and Fort Myers. The second cold front and the "dry air" and the "shear" does not seem to be intimidating Wilma one iota.




Exactly.... I've been trying to hammer this point, that she will be less adversely touched by these detriments because she is caught up in an in situ environment that is moving along with her - that is by definition storm relative shear, which in this case is exceptionally low in value... In otherwords, I see quite the alternative, pure, almost unmitigated strengthening potential right up to landfall - which is very, very ungood


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Joshua
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62513 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:28 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:



Absolutely...And, I think when this completes we may have bigger problems then cat 2!




So there it is. I can't wait to see the vortex messages close to 2300. I think we could be looking at another Charley situation with an intensifying storm hitting between Bonita Springs and Fort Myers. The second cold front and the "dry air" and the "shear" does not seem to be intimidating Wilma one iota.




Exactly.... I've been trying to hammer this point, that she will be less adversely touched by these detriments because she is caught up in an in situ environment that is moving along with her - that is by definition storm relative shear, which in this case is exceptionally low in value... In otherwords, I see quite the alternative, pure, almost unmitigated strengthening potential right up to landfall - which is very, very ungood




This is exactly why I tried to post and tell people to prepare for +1 category from the NHC track. In fact, I did that this morning. So, there really is no excuse why people should not be prepared for a major hurricane (except, of course, for being stubborn and relying too much on a past hurricane's performance)


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Storm Hunter
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: Joshua]
      #62514 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:28 PM

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
924 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
FLC009-240145-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-051024T0145Z/
BREVARD FL-
924 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...TORNADIC STORM MOVING TOWARD VIERA WEST...INTERSTATE 95...AND
ROCKLEDGE...
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
BREVARD COUNTY...
AT 919 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR COCOA...OR ABOUT NEAR ROCKLEDGE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
THE TORNADO WILL BE CROSS INTERSTATE 95 JUST NORTHWEST OF
ROCKLEDGE...
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CANAVERAL ACRES...CANAVERAL GROVES...SHARPES...BELLWOOD AND PORT
SAINT JOHN.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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satellite steve
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62515 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:29 PM

Everything is relative -- The intensification we have seen today is nothing like that of last Wed with the pressure dropping 100mb in 12 hrs

So far today the wind field has increased but no signif pressure change so far and forward speed is accelerating which will effectively increase wind speed on S of storm


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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new watch [Re: Joshua]
      #62516 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:30 PM

A new tornado watch is forthcoming that will include roughly the southern two-thirds of the Florida peninsula, including both coasts. This is the initial notification, with details coming soon:

WWUS30 KWNS 240119
SAW7
SPC AWW 240119
WW 837 TORNADO FL CW 240125Z - 241500Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF LINE..
45WNW ORL/ORLANDO FL/ - 80S MIA/MIAMI FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM EITHER SIDE /39WNW ORL - 70S MIA/
WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500.MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18045.

REPLACES WW 836..FL CW


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JG
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62517 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:30 PM

Quote:


Exactly.... I've been trying to hammer this point, that she will be less adversely touched by these detriments because she is caught up in an in situ environment that is moving along with her - that is by definition storm relative shear, which in this case is exceptionally low in value... In otherwords, I see quite the alternative, pure, almost unmitigated strengthening potential right up to landfall - which is very, very ungood




A local friend who is much more knowledgable on this subject told me that the shear, if it's in the same direction the storm is moving will not affect nor deteriorate the storm alot unless it is at a super high velocity (above 30 kts I think is what he said). Is that true? Regardless, I think Wilma is going to be like Charley. Thank you for your posts and heads up on the behaviour of this storm.


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weatherwatcher2
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Loc: Parrish florida
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62518 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:32 PM

when you say like Charley do you mean it might make a more southerly track?

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recmod
Weather Guru


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114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: JG]
      #62519 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 PM

It appears that Wilma is a solid Cat 3 now....Recon has just recorded flight level winds of 114knots

--Lou


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satellite steve
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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62520 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 PM

This cell is tracking rapidly to the N and has so far stayed inland off the beach

Appears so far to be isolated and not part of an extended band

After this passes at least for a few hours E central FL radar appears to be clear


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JG
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: weatherwatcher2]
      #62521 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 PM

Quote:

when you say like Charley do you mean it might make a more southerly track?




No. More like defy the experts and do what it wants and intensify right before landfall.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Re: new watch [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62522 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:33 PM

Click the link for a graphical depiction of the watch:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0837.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 837
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
925 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 925 PM UNTIL
1100 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF ORLANDO
FLORIDA TO 80 MILES SOUTH OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 836. WATCH NUMBER 836 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 925
PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...HURRICANE Wilma WILL BE CROSSING SRN FL LATER TONIGHT
AND MON AM. STRONG SHEAR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS SRN FL AND WILL
ONLY INCREASE AS Wilma APPROACHES. WITH 0OZ SRN FL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A MDTLY UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIR MASS...THE TORNADO
POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS SHEAR
BECOMES VERY STRONG.

THE FORECAST MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS AND MEAN CELL MOTION APPLY TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE EYEWALL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME
TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI
WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18045.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 575
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62523 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:36 PM

Quote:

Quote:


Exactly.... I've been trying to hammer this point, that she will be less adversely touched by these detriments because she is caught up in an in situ environment that is moving along with her - that is by definition storm relative shear, which in this case is exceptionally low in value... In otherwords, I see quite the alternative, pure, almost unmitigated strengthening potential right up to landfall - which is very, very ungood




A local friend who is much more knowledgable on this subject told me that the shear, if it's in the same direction the storm is moving will not affect nor deteriorate the storm alot unless it is at a super high velocity (above 30 kts I think is what he said). Is that true? Regardless, I think Wilma is going to be like Charley. Thank you for your posts and heads up on the behaviour of this storm.




Exactly - you're friend gets a gold star
Seriously, SRS - Storm Relative Shear is exactly what it sounds like... relativity... To the hurricane, the wind that is shear impactive may have the physical presents of say 5mph, which is generally not enough to inhibit strengthening. If Wilma was translating along at say...10mph, that physical presents becomes 10mph. If she were standing still, she'd be encounter all of the environmental wind field's capacity to impinge on her vertical structure, or 20mph... (I'm not saying the envir. field is 20mph - just a facsimile)... Anyway, her storm relative shear is quite low when she's already 15 or 16mph, because all the wind barbs I've seen since 00Z have been about 18kts... after conversion, she's in for what...6mph of shear... Nah, not gonna touch her.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:38 PM)


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Sneakbridge
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Highlands County, Florida
Re: new watch [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62524 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:37 PM

The eye looks huge now. How many miles wide is it?

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swimaway19
Weather Watcher


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Posts: 32
Loc: Safety Harbor, FL
Re: new watch [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62525 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:37 PM

I have been continuously watching this aforementioned link; http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml and though I am not an expert, it looks like the SW portion of the eye wall is trying to contract even more

--------------------
Chris
Swim Away, Swim Far Away....



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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: new watch [Re: swimaway19]
      #62526 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:38 PM

URNT12 KNHC 240135
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/01:12:40Z
B. 24 deg 15 min N
084 deg 08 min W
C. 700 mb 2732 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 142 deg 114 kt
G. 039 deg 027 nm
H. 958 mb
I. 8 C/ 3053 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO45-60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A Wilma OB 13
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 01:04:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C, 225 / 24NM
OUTER EYE IS RAGGED
INNER EYE IS OPEN E-SW


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62527 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:39 PM

This might be a better satellite to see the more Northerly component evolving

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html

I hope your wrong Tip as I live in TB and that more Northerly component wouuld bring the hurricane force wind path into and North of my area. I do have to agree with you though, as it is a meteorologically sound call. But I hope you're wrong

--------------------
Matt


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Posts: 1191
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Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: recmod]
      #62528 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:39 PM

Quote:

It appears that Wilma is a solid Cat 3 now....Recon has just recorded flight level winds of 114knots

--Lou



Hey Lou, go back and read my post from 8:07pm.

You can see the spot where they found the 16C in the eye, on the wv image.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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JG
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 55
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62529 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:40 PM

typhoon_tip you've been a huge help. Makes me wish that I was good at math so I could have been a met.

Well, let's hope the tornadoes let me get some sleep tonight. My weather radio is wearing me out. Recon seems to indicate the 2300 update will call for a Cat 3. I wonder, based on your discussion with me in these recent posts, if she has enough time to get up to the 130-135 mph range before landfall.

Some folks seem to think that an 84 degree SST is not enough to support those windspeeds. What do you think?


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


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Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
00Z Soundings [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #62530 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:41 PM

Key West Sounding
Helicity (spin) of 524m/s/s.

Tampa-Helicity of 256ms/s.

Miami-Helicity of 236m/s/s

Tip or Thunderbird12. Care to elaborate on the Helicity and the F scale if you have time.

BTW-Jeff Morrow is in Miami. He just said "I don't like the looks of that satellite right now!"~danielw


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: new watch [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62531 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:46 PM

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
944 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A
.. TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SHARPES...PORT SAINT JOHN
.. UNTIL 1030 PM EDT
.. AT 944 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A TORNADO OVER COCOA...APPROACHING MERRITT ISLAND...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THE PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND BETWEEN COCOA AND
MERRITT ISLAND AT 943 PM...NEAR THE HUBERT HUMPHREY BRIDGE.
.. THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVE OVER NORTH MERRITT ISLAND
AND BE NEAR...
KENNEDY SPACE CENTER BY 1010 PM EDT
THE IMMEDIATE DANGER OF A TORNADO IS HIGH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS
TORNADO ARE URGED TO QUICKLY PREPARE FOR ITS APPROACH. THIS IS A
DANGEROUS SITUATION! ACT NOW...SECONDS CAN SAVE LIVES!!
IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF A TORNADO...THE SAFEST PLACE IS IN A STRONG
BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A
BATHROOM OR CLOSET. KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF NECESSARY...GET UNDER
A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR
PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY. ABANDON YOUR MOBILE HOME OR RV FOR MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...GET INTO AN
UNFLOODED DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS AND
ARMS. ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE IF THE TORNADO IS NEARBY.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: new watch [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62532 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:48 PM

Still only slow intensification noted on the latest recon, though as Margie has been pointing out, it has likely reached cat 3 status now. More rapid intensification will not occur until a single eyewall forms... right now there seems to be (almost) two eyewalls.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Margie]
      #62533 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:48 PM

Derek Ortt, meteorologist from UM, speaking on Hurricane City says this will be the worst hurricane in South Florida since Hurricane Andrew and the worst hurricane in Broward County since Cleo in 1964. Says high end cat. 3 at landfall. Doesn't predict a 4, but wouldn't be surprised. Says 100 mph winds will effect all of the 5 million people in SE Florida.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 575
Re: Extrapolated Track [Re: JG]
      #62534 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:51 PM

Quote:

typhoon_tip you've been a huge help. Makes me wish that I was good at math so I could have been a met.

Well, let's hope the tornadoes let me get some sleep tonight. My weather radio is wearing me out. Recon seems to indicate the 2300 update will call for a Cat 3. I wonder, based on your discussion with me in these recent posts, if she has enough time to get up to the 130-135 mph range before landfall.

Some folks seem to think that an 84 degree SST is not enough to support those windspeeds. What do you think?




Untrue... 84 is plenty... It depends on numerous factors... Heck, you had Vince in the eastern Atlantic over waters that were 72 I think (check that)...Anyway, point being, peculiararities about her internal structure and also how she's interacting with her environment are more inducive then any rigidity surrounding generalized SST rules.

Namely, she has an extraordinarily powerful outlfow channel established that is rocketing mass from the rim of her upper CDO to Greenland at about ludicrous speed... Sarcasm aside, it really is a potent artifice of circumstantial design...

a) She travels inside the belly of an air mass that is moving along with her, together, she and this air mass are not suffering the ill-affects of shearing erosions and dry air entrainments, because of storm relative shear, which I explained in an earlier post and am getting leary of re-writing...
b) There is a very strong U/A windfield moving into the SE U.S.; the enterance region of a strong negative anomaly (deep trough) carving out between 75 and 80W.. This wind max is moving SW-NE and has latched onto Wilma's outflow, yanking it right along and enhancing the hell out of it... That is why you see the outflow channel so strongly on her NNE polarward side..

a) + b) = c) ...Cataclysm, Catastrophy, you name it... She will have the ability to maximize for these rare combinations of well-timed parametrics. ...Not etched in stone of course, but judging by sat/rad...I think cat 3 is easy... 125 at landfall...no problem... (Early est and I retain the right to eat crow in peace! )

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 09:58 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: 00Z Soundings [Re: danielw]
      #62535 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:52 PM

Quote:

Key West Sounding
Helicity (spin) of 524m/s/s.

Tampa-Helicity of 256ms/s.

Miami-Helicity of 236m/s/s

Tip or Thunderbird12. Care to elaborate on the Helicity and the F scale if you have time.

BTW-Jeff Morrow is in Miami. He just said "I don't like the looks of that satellite right now!"~danielw




That sort of helicity coupled with the instability in place is supportive of a few strong (F2 or higher) tornadoes. The helicity is not necessarily higher than you would expect with an approaching hurricane, but the amount of instability is somewhat higher. This is due to some good heating today over south Florida and a lack of a major precipitation shield ahead of the system.

The timing of the landfall may mitigate the overall tornado threat somewhat, though what tornadoes that do form will be more dangerous because it is dark and they will be fast moving and hard to track. If the storm was approaching closer to peak heating, an even more widespread tornado event might have been possible.


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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru


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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #62536 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:52 PM

Quote:

Derek Ortt, meteorologist from UM, speaking on Hurricane City says this will be the worst hurricane in South Florida since Hurricane Andrew and the worst hurricane in Broward County since Cleo in 1964. Says high end cat. 3 at landfall. Doesn't predict a 4, but wouldn't be surprised. Says 100 mph winds will effect all of the 5 million people in SE Florida.



If I'm not mistaken Derek has his landfall futher south than most have predicted. I think it is his belief that from WPB to Miami will take the brunt of this storm. I will go back and read his post from this afternoon to be sure.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #62537 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:55 PM

HURRICANE Wilma TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...
255 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM... SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE Wilma
IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH.

FORECASTER STEWART


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62538 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:57 PM

The previous update was old... here is the new one:

HURRICANE Wilma TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 10 PM EDT...0200Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
210 KM... WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM...
SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE Wilma
IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH. IF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EYEWALL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AND REMAIN WELL
ORGANIZED... THEN Wilma WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE 11 PM ADVISORY.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS... AND ARE NOW WITHIN 40 MILES OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST.

FORECASTER STEWART


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62539 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:58 PM

WOW..... UH OH... NASA "MIGHT" BE IN TROUBLE!!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
954 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
FLC009-240230-
/O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-051024T0230Z/
BREVARD FL-
954 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY...
AT 953 PM EDT...MELBOURNE DOPPLER RADAR... AS WELL AS HIGH RESOLUTION
TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED A TORNADO OVER NORTHERN MERRITT
ISLAND NEAR COURTENAY...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH TOWARD THE KENNEDY
SPACE CENTER COMPLEX.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION. A TORNADO WAS REPORTED ON THE GROUND BETWEEN COCOA AND
MERRITT ISLAND AND DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED!!! I DIDN'T ADD THE !!! MARKS
THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
KENNEDY SPACE CENTER BY 1010 PM EDT
MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE BY 1030 PM EDT
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING
FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
LAT...LON 2837 8084 2837 8067 2840 8067 2859 8060

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 23 2005 10:01 PM)


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JG
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 55
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62540 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:59 PM

Quote:

HURRICANE Wilma TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE
WILMA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA
NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES...
255 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 210 MILES...
340 KM... SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE Wilma
IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH.

FORECASTER STEWART




Based on the latest vortex message, she's still north of the "line" or projected path. I agree with Tip; this looks more like a Bonita event.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex1.gif


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62541 - Sun Oct 23 2005 09:59 PM

That must have been posted an hour ago then.

Glad Stewart is on tonight. Can't wait to read the 10pm if he's going to be writing it up.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3522
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62543 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:02 PM

I'm getting quite a few PMs about what to expect in ___ area.
I don't mind the PMs but there are over 910 people on site right now.

If you were in Florida last year and went through any of the Hurricanes that pummeled the state.
Think and plan on the idea that it will get Bad.
Set your sights and thinking one step above that level.

Then hope and pray that it doesn't get there. If it does...you are prepared right now.

If the weather will permit it where you live. Make a quick check around the house for anything that will blow....anything.
Then get your 'safe room' in order so you can go there at a moments notice.
That means finding a mattress to shield/ cover yourself with.

Okay Jim Cantore just said it!..."You Need To Seek Shelter Before Midnight Tonight."
I didn't hear him say an exact location. If you are in or on the Florida Peninsula.It wouldn't be a bad idea.

Oh and go ahead and prepare the kids. Tell them it's going to get really, really Bad. In whatever manner you wish. So they can be somewhat prepared for it.

Edited by danielw (Sun Oct 23 2005 10:08 PM)


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: 00Z Soundings [Re: danielw]
      #62547 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:06 PM

Quote:

Key West Sounding
Helicity (spin) of 524m/s/s.

Tampa-Helicity of 256ms/s.

Miami-Helicity of 236m/s/s

Tip or Thunderbird12. Care to elaborate on the Helicity and the F scale if you have time.

BTW-Jeff Morrow is in Miami. He just said "I don't like the looks of that satellite right now!"~danielw




Hi Danny..
The kind of Storm Relative Helicity in question is a measure consisting of two parameters:
1) Stream line shear with height.
2) Directional shear with height.

1)...is the increase in wind velocity ascending through the layer in question.
2)...is the change in wind direction asceding in altitude.
The calculations are performed at 1km and 3km layers above ground level.

The units suggest this in being m/ss. The larger the SRH, the greater the chance for tornado development.
SRH Value Tornado Potential
150-299 weak
300-449 moderate
>450 strong

Simpler "Helicity" is just a measure of rotation in a storm's updraft... You can bet that a huge SRH value will be codependent.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Oct 23 2005 10:14 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
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Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62548 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:06 PM

If High-Res Terminal Doppler is indicating a tornado, then there is debris in the air. That storm looks nasty right now, like something you would see in the Plains during tornado season.

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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
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Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: danielw]
      #62549 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:07 PM

WOW. Looking at the Wunderground loop with storm signatures ("show storms") - you can clearly see the Tornado Vortex Signature near the cape, but thankfully it looks like it's slightly west of the launch pads and VAB. WAY too close for comfort though - this is going to be a long night.

--------------------
[witty phrase here]


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62551 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:08 PM

YEAH.... i don't have my GRLevel up... bet would be some crazy images... including level II data from MLB right now... (storm was close to nexrad)...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Big Red Machine
Storm Tracker


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Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: JG]
      #62552 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:09 PM

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1004 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 1004 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
NORTHERN GIBSONIA
RURAL NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO
A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES. LEAVE VEHICLES AND GET INTO A DITCH OR LOW
SPOT.



That's right over my house.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Tampa
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62553 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:09 PM

WFUS52 KTBW 240205
TORTBW
FLC105-240230-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0026.051024T0204Z-051024T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1004 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT

* AT 1004 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
NORTHERN GIBSONIA
RURAL NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.

TORNADOES ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO
A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
ABANDON MOBILE HOMES. LEAVE VEHICLES AND GET INTO A DITCH OR LOW
SPOT.

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62554 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:11 PM

live WESH doppler

http://mfile.akamai.com/12890/live/reflector:38190.asx

(not zoomed in) anyone have GRlevel3 running?

just in:

Tornado Warning: key west

AT 1006 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
VIOLENT WATERSPOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST...MOVING NORTH AT 60
MPH.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62555 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:14 PM

uh... trying to find a live cam at space center

so far found this

http://www.wesh.com/wxcam/1472278/detail.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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RockledgeRick
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Loc: Space Coast, FL
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: leetdan]
      #62556 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:14 PM

That's the same storm cell that produced a tornado over Cocoa, FL around 9:45 PM. Channel 13 now on TV reporting confirmed tornado touchdown near Cocoa Village took the roof off of the El Charro Mexican Restaurant. No injuries.

--------------------
Been through Agnes, Erin, Irene, Dennis, Floyd, Charley, Frances, Jeanne, TS Fay, Matthew


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: RockledgeRick]
      #62558 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:22 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html


Is it just me, or is she heading a little east for the near term?

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast [Re: RockledgeRick]
      #62559 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:23 PM

Some significant wave heights are quickly approaching the West Coast of Florida.

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/index.html


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #62560 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:30 PM

Quote:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html


Is it just me, or is she heading a little east for the near term?




If anything it is more NNE. It is probably just a wobble. Remember don't concentrate on just 1 frame concentrate on the big picture.

--------------------
Matt


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Convergence
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 35
Loc: Ellicott City, Maryland
Re: Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62561 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:30 PM

There are going to be some very nasty waves coming ashore with Wilma... not only is she going to be moving at least at the optimum cyclonic storm wave producing speed of around 20 knots at landfall, but she's accelerating, which means that the waves are going to be trapped under the storm and built up for a LONG time... which is called fetch-trapping. The beaches aren't going to look very nice after this one. I wouldn't be surprised to see 15m waves.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: RockledgeRick]
      #62562 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:30 PM

Y'know I've been mainly looking at wv and IR loops tonight, but I just took a quick look at the visual. It doesn't show the lack of solid organization like the others, just that things are a little 'fuzzy' but I'll say this...the overall cloud structure is, perhaps only coincidentally, very similar to the strong "buzzsaw" signature you can get with Cat 4. All this hurricane has to do is just get that core organized, which is occuring painfully slowly, and I bet she'll spin up quick. Of course that could fail to happen before she runs out of ocean real estate.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
Naples Information [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62563 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:31 PM

We just came back from dinner with friends from Naples who had to evacuate and are staying up here in Tampa. After the storm goes through, does anyone have any suggestions on the best place for them to get comprehensive post storm information, damage information, road information, etc. Is Collier EOC the best place to start?

As an aside, they mentioned there is one of those temporary pumpkin patches near their house where someone is selling pumpkins; they said that whoever was running it just abandoned it and left all those potential 20+ pound projectiles sitting out in the open...just crazy. When I was a kid part of our pre-storm ritual was to cut the coconuts out of the tree...but we never had to worry about pumpkins!


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3rdGenFlaNative
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 8
Loc: Polk County, FL
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Big Red Machine]
      #62564 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:31 PM

OMG you guys! I am really starting to freak out here in Lakeland! I was here last year for all three hurricanes and was never this scared! What is really alarming is that the very people who normally seem (IMHO as a previously quiet lurker) like the voices of reason seem EXTREMELY concerned with what appears to be developing.

I have taken every recommended precaution, and have the whole family in the safest room with mattresses, but am still hesitant about freaking the kids out - they just got settled for the night, and I'd love for them to be able to sleep through the worst of things (I know I sure won't!). But I am seriously considering telling them what's going on, after what Danielw said. Polk county seems to be a hot spot right now, and I have a feeling this may be unlike any storm - of any kind - that I've ever experienced.

Thanks for all the crucial support you guys are providing! I don't have cable, and the info I am receiving here is invaluable. Best of luck to everyone and please stay safe!

--------------------
28.0 N 81.9 W
Inland Tropical Storm Warning
Tornado Watch

Began my entrance into this world during Hurricane Dora, 1964 - Have since experienced effects from: David ('79) - Irene ('99) - Charley, Frances, and Jeanne ('04)


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast [Re: Convergence]
      #62565 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:32 PM

THE NWS HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11:14AM EDT
Issue Time: 10:28PM EDT, Sunday Oct 23, 2005
Valid Until: 11:14AM EDT, Monday Oct 24, 2005
Back to summary

Flood Warning National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL 1026 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2005

A River Flood Warning Has Been Issued For... The Little Manatee River At Wimauma, The Manatee River At Myakka Head, And The Peace River At Arcadia.

Hurricane Wilma Is Forecast To Gradually Accelerate While Moving Northeast Toward Southwest Florida Overnight. Wilma Will Race Across The Florida Peninsula Early On Monday. Heavy Rains Fell Over Portions Of West Central And Central Florida Sunday Night, And Additional Heavy Rains Of 2 To 4 Inches Will Be Possible Again On Monday. Residents With Intrest Along Rivers In West Central And Southwest Florida, Should Closely Monitor For Additional Updates And Forecasts.

For The Little Manatee River At Wimauma, The Latest Stage Is 2.9 Feet At 10 PM Sunday. Minor Flooding Is Forecast, With A Maximum Stage Of 12.5 Feet Around 8 AM Tuesday, Which Is 1.5 Feet Above Flood Stage. The Stage Will Rise Above The Flood Stage Of 11 Feet Around 01 AM Tuesday. The Stage Will Fall Below Flood Stage Around 7 AM Wednesday. This Compares To A Previous Crest Of 12.5 Feet On Aug 29 1981. At 13 Feet, The Canoe Rental Area Floods. At 11 Feet, The River Overflows Its Banks.

For The Manatee River At Myakka Head, The Latest Stage Is 3.2 Feet At 10 PM Sunday. Minor Flooding Is Forecast, With A Maximum Stage Of 13.4 Feet Around 8 PM Monday, Which Is 2.4 Feet Above Flood Stage. The Stage Will Rise Above The Flood Stage Of 11 Feet Around 12 PM Monday. The Stage Will Fall Below Flood Stage Around 9 AM Tuesday. This Compares To A Previous Crest Of 13.4 Feet On Aug 24 1979. At 11 Feet, Private Road And Bridge 1 Mile Downstream Flood. Agricultural, Rural Kibler Area Begins To Flood.

For The Peace River At Arcadia, The Latest Stage Is 3.8 Feet At 9 PM Sunday. Minor Flooding Is Forecast, With A Maximum Stage Of 11.3 Feet Around 2 PM Thursday, Which Is 0.3 Feet Above Flood Stage. The Stage Will Rise Above The Flood Stage Of 11 Feet Around 5 PM Wednesday. This Compares To A Previous Crest Of 11.3 Feet On Mar 29 1970. At 12 Feet, The Girl Scout Camp Floods. At 11 Feet, Access Roads To River Acres Become Flooded. At 10 Feet, 3 To 4 Homes In The River Acres Subdivision Flood And The Lowest Portion Of The Girl Scout Camp Floods.

Do Not Drive Cars Through Flooded Areas...

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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bposner
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 5
Loc: Sunrise Florida
Re: Naples Information [Re: Geoff]
      #62566 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:33 PM

off topic
Not a weather person, but have been reading all your posts for the last week, I'm in Sunrise Florida, just wanted to thank you all for great info.



Edit: Glad to see you post one! Thanks for the kudos.. I'm sure all the Mets and Met wannabe's thank you.



Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Oct 23 2005 10:36 PM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: chase 22]
      #62567 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:33 PM

Quote:

Quote:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html


Is it just me, or is she heading a little east for the near term?




If anything it is more NNE. It is probably just a wobble. Remember don't concentrate on just 1 frame concentrate on the big picture.



Yeah, but also, NBC 2 on the west coast of Florida is also confirming a possible ENE track.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: 3rdGenFlaNative]
      #62568 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:34 PM

Considering the storm is well south of you, I think you'll be ok.

It is good you haven't taken anything for granted but I'm not so sure it will be as bad in Polk County as you are envisioning right now.

Stay safe!


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BTfromAZ
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 75
Loc: San Francisco/Green Valley, AZ
Re: Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62569 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:35 PM

Sorry to sound ignorant, but is that red blob (implying 40 ft heights) only peak-to-trough waves or is that the storm surge (which is obviously not 40 ft but could be 10 to 15 ft with 25-30 ft waves on top)?

Edit - Not quite sure as I am not a Met. However, the data is there for us to assume something is seeing 40' wave heights.

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Oct 23 2005 10:37 PM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #62570 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:36 PM

It is becoming more apparant that this storm is going to much stronger upon landfall than what anyone had predicted...CNN's freaking out..dopes.

The weird thing is this: when they show the faster loops, it looks like it is going to hit Naples in 2 hours. However, when you look at the Key West radar, it almost looks like it's going more north than east. Is that because they play slower loops out of the Key West area than they do the other loops? It's kind of deceiving.

The, uh, mets on CNN seem a little....dazed.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: 3rdGenFlaNative]
      #62571 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:41 PM

Quote:

OMG you guys! I am really starting to freak out here in Lakeland! I was here last year for all three hurricanes and was never this scared! What is really alarming is that the very people who normally seem (IMHO as a previously quiet lurker) like the voices of reason seem EXTREMELY concerned with what appears to be developing.

I have taken every recommended precaution, and have the whole family in the safest room with mattresses, but am still hesitant about freaking the kids out - they just got settled for the night, and I'd love for them to be able to sleep through the worst of things (I know I sure won't!). But I am seriously considering telling them what's going on, after what Danielw said. Polk county seems to be a hot spot right now, and I have a feeling this may be unlike any storm - of any kind - that I've ever experienced.

Thanks for all the crucial support you guys are providing! I don't have cable, and the info I am receiving here is invaluable. Best of luck to everyone and please stay safe!




Conditions should not be too bad with the hurricane itself (probably not anything worse than tropical storm conditions) where you are... the main threat is probably tonight with isolated tornadoes around in the outer bands. Just make sure to stay abreast of any tornado warnings on your local media. It also wouldn't hurt to have a battery-operated radio in case power goes out. Keep in mind that tornadoes are inherently rare phenomena and generally affect only a small area, so try not to worry too much.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Sun Oct 23 2005 10:42 PM)


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Geoff
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 50
Loc: Tampa, FL
Naples Information [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #62572 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:41 PM

We just came back from dinner with friends from Naples who had to evacuate and are staying up here in Tampa. After the storm goes through, does anyone have any suggestions on the best place for them to get comprehensive post storm information, damage information, road information, etc. Is Collier EOC the best place, or is there a better source? [Feel free to PM me]

As an aside, they mentioned there is one of those temporary pumpkin patches near their house where someone is selling pumpkins; they said that whoever was running it just abandoned it and left all those potential 20+ pound projectiles sitting out in the open...just crazy. When I was a kid part of our pre-storm ritual was to cut the coconuts out of the tree...but we never had to worry about pumpkins!


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #62573 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:42 PM

HURRICANE Wilma ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005
...WILMA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.4 N... 83.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Oct 23 2005 10:43 PM)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
11 PM is out - Wilma is a Cat 3 [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62574 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:43 PM

HURRICANE Wilma ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...WILMA STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS LASHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
AND WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH
OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED... IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER
OF Wilma IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER... Wilma IS
A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL BEFORE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL... ACCOMPANIED BY THE STRONGEST WINDS...
WILL REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA ABOUT 2 HOURS BEFORE
THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. Wilma IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS
...AND Wilma WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.
SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS Wilma CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME THE CENTER REACHES
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... WESTERN CUBA... AND THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS. THESE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA COAST BY MIDNIGHT... WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING
THE LOWER KEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST BEFORE SUNRISE


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WeatherNut
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Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62575 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:44 PM

Yeah...these guys at CNN...nothing like selling a story (wonder what they are charging for advertising while this is going on). Its gonna be a long night for you guys in SW FL..
These dopes at CNN are reporting storm surge already in Key West...cant possibly be there yet

Edit - hmm, you better look at this data - looks to me like there is a significant surge occuring:

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/index.html

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Oct 23 2005 10:46 PM)


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abyrd
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11 pm out [Re: Geoff]
      #62576 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:45 PM

115 knts moving due NE at 18 mph

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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker


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Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62577 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:45 PM

Seems pretty close to track right now. I do not see a ENE movement. More like a NE movement.. If you look at the storm on satellite, its following the NHC track points pretty well. Maybe a hint north of the track, depending upon your prospective.

Local weathermen and TV like to hype movement. Great for ratings.. Best bet is to go by Recon positions and NHC advisories. They provide the official positions. They are providing these every hour. So there should be no confusion on direction.

--------------------
Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!


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Random Chaos
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Re: Naples Information [Re: Geoff]
      #62578 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:45 PM

Couple hours old, but just posted at NRL - microwave pass from SSMI:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks

You can see the convection circling the core almost completely now.


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chase 22
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Re: Naples Information [Re: Geoff]
      #62579 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:46 PM

Quote:

We just came back from dinner with friends from Naples who had to evacuate and are staying up here in Tampa. After the storm goes through, does anyone have any suggestions on the best place for them to get comprehensive post storm information, damage information, road information, etc. Is Collier EOC the best place, or is there a better source? [Feel free to PM me]

As an aside, they mentioned there is one of those temporary pumpkin patches near their house where someone is selling pumpkins; they said that whoever was running it just abandoned it and left all those potential 20+ pound projectiles sitting out in the open...just crazy. When I was a kid part of our pre-storm ritual was to cut the coconuts out of the tree...but we never had to worry about pumpkins!




Probably the Collier EOC or FEMA. They may have to be patient as they will be swamped immediately following the storm.

--------------------
Matt


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BTfromAZ
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Re: Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #62580 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:47 PM

I asked about the storm surge vs. wave height because the highest "waves" seem to be perilously close to the Keys which are, as we all know, only a few feet above sea level. I had envisioned the max surge being a bit farther north impacting primarily the northern reaches of FL Bay, the Everglades and, perhaps, Naples. Withe the exception of Naples, that would be a "good scenario" as those areas are natural marsh capable of absorbing the water and unpopulated. But if it hits the Keys, that would, arguably, be worst case.

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Jonathan Franklin
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Wilma's a Cat 3 [Re: MikeC]
      #62581 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:47 PM

It is official. The 11 pm discussion is out.

Cat 3

115 MPH

958 mb

18 mph NE


***

Wave height off of Key West is 20-30 ft

Jonathan


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Colleen A.
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Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: 3rdGenFlaNative]
      #62582 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:48 PM

First of all, please sit down and take a VERY DEEP BREATH. Thank you...now...listen.
First of all, we will have conditions close to what we have when a severe t-storm comes through Polk County. What do you tell your children then? The last thing they need to see is their mom freaking out. That will scare them more than any storm cell coming through.
If you have taken every precaution you possibly can, I would NOT wake up your children to tell them ANYTHING unless you have to...and if you do have to wake them up due to a tornado warning or anything else, do it as calmly as you can because they need to be reassured by YOU...
I have been through some scary storms ---Georges comes to mind with his tornados --- but a certain calm will come over you when it comes to dealing with your children.
Just be alert...my kids are sleeping, they know that the night may be rough, but they also know where I will be all night long.
So...now take a BIG DEEP BREATH again, and try to relax...hey, the wind isn't even blowing here yet.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Re: Naples Information [Re: Random Chaos]
      #62584 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:49 PM

Another good radar image of the eye:

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


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Updated current wind field data [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62585 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:50 PM

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_field.asp

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Wilma's a Cat 3 [Re: Jonathan Franklin]
      #62586 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:51 PM

AP-FL--Wilma-Forecast URGENT, take two
Wilma regains Category 3 strength
Tropical storm-force winds are lashing the lower Florida Keys. Minor flooding is reported in Key West.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Addicted2Cane
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Re: 11 PM is out - Wilma is a Cat 3 [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62587 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:51 PM

Been lurking around here for a few days sucking up all the knowledge that has been spinning around here and just wanted to shout out a big thank you. Looks like its going to be downhill from here for many on the board...good luck to all and be safe. Thanks for all of the great insight you have shared.

--------------------
Where is the wind and rain...I NEED to sleep!!


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typhoon_tip
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Re: Naples Information [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62588 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:52 PM

Any word out of Key West? Rad just showed them get whacked by a supercell and this was confirmed during the last hour by the fact that a violent water spout was 13miles S of them moving north.. That cell has gone by them now..

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h2ocean
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Re: Wilma's a Cat 3 [Re: Jonathan Franklin]
      #62589 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:53 PM

I am located in Brevard Co, FL - on Merritt Island - it is very calm right now (should have TS winds tomorrow). I have an anemometer on my roof and here is a link to the data - updated every few seconds.

http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather/livewx.html

--------------------
Merritt Island, FL Home Weather Station


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Jonathan Franklin
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Updated maps [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62590 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:53 PM

Way to go Skeet!

Here's a great updated map:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=z&m=24

Unbelievable. We're in Palmetto Bay (South of Miami). We're getting socked tomorrow.

Apparrently, Wilma's outrunning the trough. So no shear.

Jonathan



What counts is not necessarily the size of the dog in the fight - it's the size of the fight in the dog.
Dwight D. Eisenhower , speech to the Republican National Committee, January 31, 1958


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collegemom
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Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: 3rdGenFlaNative]
      #62591 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:53 PM

You be fine. Don't alarm the kids but be alert. Read to them but keep your ears open. Good luck and God Bless

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


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Re: 11 PM is out - Wilma is a Cat 3 [Re: Addicted2Cane]
      #62592 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:54 PM

WFUS52 KMLB 240252
TORMLB
FLC069-240345-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0025.051024T0249Z-051024T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1049 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
LAKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MASCOTTE AND GROVELAND...

* UNTIL 1145 PM EDT

* AT 1048 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH
OF MASCOTTE AND GROVELAND. THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
MASCOTTE AND GROVELAND BY 1110 PM EDT

TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET AND KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY.

STORMS WITHIN DOMINANT RAINBANDS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES VERY QUICKLY!
OFTEN...IN SITUATIONS SUCH AS THIS...MORE THAN ONE TORNADO IS
PRODUCED. BE PREPARED FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF MULTIPLE TORNADOES MOVING
THROUGH THE RAINBAND!

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.

LAT...LON 2827 8190 2830 8170 2890 8175 2886 8205

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Thunderbird12
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Re: Naples Information [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62593 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:54 PM

The Weather Channel is also reporting some surge on Key West.

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Genesis
Weather Guru


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Posts: 125
Re: Wave Heights appraoching the West Coast [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #62594 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:57 PM

Quote:

Sorry to sound ignorant, but is that red blob (implying 40 ft heights) only peak-to-trough waves or is that the storm surge (which is obviously not 40 ft but could be 10 to 15 ft with 25-30 ft waves on top)?

Edit - Not quite sure as I am not a Met. However, the data is there for us to assume something is seeing 40' wave heights.




That posted graphic link is a model, and does not include surge.

There are no working stations in the immediate area - there are two in the lower Keys, but it appears they were both damaged in September and are out of service.

Wave heights are usually given as peak-to-trough. Wave heights do not include surge, which is non-existant in deep water; it is basically "rammed water", added to by the lessened pressure (think an upwelling as pressure falls in a stick - same principle a water barometer works on.)

The only good news, if you can call it that, is that waves that are more than roughly half the height of the water under them is deep will crest and break. The reasons for this are complicated and have to do with the fact that there is "drag" on the bottom of the ocean that the wave energy runs into, which tends to "hold" the bottom of the water, causing it effectively "fall over" (develop a coamer and break)

Deep fall-offs allow wave heights to be maintained all the way up to the shore or very close to it, while shallower shelves tend to limit wave height as the shore is approached. However, whatever does reach the sthore comes in on top of the surge.

So if you have 20' waves on the beach, and a 10' surge, then the peak of the waves will be at 30' above MSL.

I would not be surprised to see 15-20' breakers on top of whatever surge that comes with it, at the eyewall and south of where it comes ashore.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Re: Naples Information [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62595 - Sun Oct 23 2005 10:58 PM

The satellite presentation seems to have leveled off for now. I think the eye is simply too big and not well-organized enough for a rapid intensification to occur, though slow intensification is likely still possible for another few hours.

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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


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Live from Key West [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62596 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:02 PM

Live TV from the Keys

http://mfile.akamai.com/12908/live/reflector:35252.asx


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Turba
Registered User


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Re: Naples Information [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62597 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:04 PM

Newbie here, just wanted to say thanks to everyone for the great info. I've been reading all day. I don't live in FL but my In-Laws do, on Marco Island. They did leave the island, but only went to Naples to a hotel 3 miles from the beach. We tried to talk them into going much, much further north, but they wouldn't. Anyway, of course we are worried about them, but they seem to think that Naples will be OK. I'm not so sure, but all I can do now is wait and hope they come through OK.

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3rdGenFlaNative
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Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62598 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:04 PM

OK Colleen - am taking deep breaths as requested... alright, that's better. Thanks so much for the support. Kids are asleep (AND HUBBY! - unbelievable!). Instead of subjecting them to constant tornado warnings on local tv, they watched dvd's until they fell asleep. I've been online, and haven't shown to them any of the panic that I was beginning to feel. So I think you're right, just gonna let everyone else sleep.

Sorry to have sounded like such a lunatic. I've lived here all my life, and have always handled hurricanes, tornado warnings & severe t-storms quite well - no, really! But it seemed like in the period of about an hour the weather service announced several strong tornado warnings for my specific area, while at the same time I watched in disbelief as Wilma started to explode! Guess it just got a little overwhelming. Of course I know that landfall will be well south of me. The unusually severe threat of strong, long-lasting tornados was what really freaked me out. But I do feel better now, and will just continue monitoring the situation, as that's all I can do. I'm truly as prepared as I could be, and I've trained my children well. So, thanks again to everyone for your support, and here's hoping for the best for all of us.

Chelle

--------------------
28.0 N 81.9 W
Inland Tropical Storm Warning
Tornado Watch

Began my entrance into this world during Hurricane Dora, 1964 - Have since experienced effects from: David ('79) - Irene ('99) - Charley, Frances, and Jeanne ('04)


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


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Max Mayfield Just Said.. [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62599 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:06 PM

20' storm surge in the Keys all the way up towards Naples..

Instead of isolated tornadoes in Florida, he now says scattered tornadoes from Northern Central Florida to the Keys - that is a significant change.


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JG
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Max Mayfield Just Said.. [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62600 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:08 PM

Quote:

20' storm surge in the Keys all the way up towards Naples..

Instead of isolated tornadoes in Florida, he know says scattered tornadoes from Northern Central Florida to the Keys - that is a significant change.




Because of the intrusion of the cold front, I'm not too suprised to hear the tornado statement. I fear that from Tampa to the Keys we'll be dealing with tornado watches and warnings until after lunch tommorrow if not later. Once the second front blows through, our air will finally get more stable.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Max Mayfield Just Said.. [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #62601 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:09 PM

Quote:

20' storm surge in the Keys all the way up towards Naples..

Instead of isolated tornadoes in Florida, he now says scattered tornadoes from Northern Central Florida to the Keys - that is a significant change.




I believe he said 8-17' foot surge.

Edit - Thanks.. that's what I though he said too but then the Met summarized and said 20' so I left it as that. In any case, high.

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Oct 23 2005 11:10 PM)


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DebbiePSL
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Re: Naples Information [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62602 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:10 PM

Quote:

The Weather Channel is also reporting some surge on Key West.



Also saw earlier on TWC Steve Lyons said looks like landfall right now will be around everglades city.


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BTfromAZ
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Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #62603 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:11 PM

Was just watching Melbourne radar (because my personal concern is for the Daytona area where my remaining family lives) and saw what appeared to be a severe tornado cross Cape Canaveral. Earlier this evening, I spent some time on the phone with my 80-something mom trying to convince her to close the roll-down storm shutters before she goes to bed. Now I'm glad I did.

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Colleen A.
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Re: 114 Knots at Flight Level! [Re: 3rdGenFlaNative]
      #62604 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:14 PM

I am glad you are feeling better. While that information about the tornadoes can scare you, the meteorologists on CNN, MSNBC and FNC can freak you out even more because it's ANOTHER BIG HURRICANE STORY!! AGH! I know you said you didn't have cable (consider that a blessing in itself! ) but if you have a radio, tune into WFLA and let Steve Jerve calmly get you through the storm. He has got to be the most calm, down to earth guy I've heard on TV...and he and Jennifer Hill make a great team.
It's amazing how our adrenaline kicks in when needed, isn't it? Now, who's gonna watch the kids tomorrow when we fall asleep on our feet?

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #62605 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:15 PM

URNT12 KNHC 240310
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/02:46:30Z
B. 24 deg 22 min N
083 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2733 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 215 deg 105 kt
G. 123 deg 036 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 9 C/ 3037 m
J. 15 C/ 3048 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C55
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 2424A Wilma OB 20
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 01:04:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C 320 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR


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KikiFla
Registered User


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Posts: 5
Loc: Miami, FL
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #62606 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:16 PM

Forcast low for Miami on Tuesday morning...... 59 degrees! At least it will be nice to know that we won't be sweltering for once..... once the electricity goes out!

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Turba
Registered User


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Posts: 2
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: KikiFla]
      #62607 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:18 PM

Can someone tell me if this site will remain up even if there are massive power outages in FL?

Thanks,
Doug

Edit: we'll do our best - but we are at the mercy of the datacenter which is in VA. We should be ok.

Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sun Oct 23 2005 11:30 PM)


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shrinkdoc weather watcher
Registered User


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Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: BTfromAZ]
      #62608 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:20 PM

Hi, "first time poster", long time admirer of those knowledgeable about weather. I too have family in Daytona area and fear that if I wasn't learning what was happening from you all, they would not have the foggiest idea of what they could be in for tonight/tomorrow! Thank you for the valuable info and good luck to you all down there, from the quiet West Coast.

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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 318
Re: Naples Information [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #62609 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:22 PM

They said on CNN Key West hasn't been hit by a major hurricane since early 1900's. Wilma seems to be aiming
for Key West. Not surprised she is a cat 3 with the way this season has been. Hopefully, she will blow through quickly.
Looks that way. I am praying for everyone that she may affect.


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Jonathan Franklin
Verified CFHC User


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Posts: 11
Loc: Miami, Florida
Pressure dropping as of 11:30 pm [Re: MikeC]
      #62610 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:23 PM

They're reporting that the pressure is now 957mb per air force reports at an updated 11:30 report.

Jonathan


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1024
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Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Turba]
      #62611 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:23 PM

Quote:

Can someone tell me if this site will remain up even if there are massive power outages in FL?

Thanks,
Doug




Doing a traceroute on the site, it looks like their host is in Virginia, so it shouldn't have a problem remaining online.

Although there are a few moderators in the state of FL that could find themselves without power or internet access. Sorry to interrupt your post, but it seemed more prudent than doing a redundant answer. -Tom

Edited by tpratch (Sun Oct 23 2005 11:26 PM)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


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Posts: 644
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Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Random Chaos]
      #62612 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:26 PM

LAKE FL-
1112 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM EDT FOR WESTERN
LAKE COUNTY...

AT 1107 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO OVER SOUTH LAKE COUNTY. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
EAST OF STATE ROAD 33 ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF STATE ROAD 50 BETWEEN
CLERMONT AND MASCOTTE. THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MINNEOLA BY 1125 PM EDT
ASTATULA...HOWEY IN THE HILLS...LITTLE LAKE HARRIS AND 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF YALAHA BY 1145 PM EDT

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM EDT MONDAY MORNING
FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.


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chase 22
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 82
Loc: San Angelo, TX
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Random Chaos]
      #62613 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:28 PM

They are currently showing footage of the flooding in Key West on Channel 8 here in Tampa. It doesn't look good for them.

--------------------
Matt


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MissBecky
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 112
Loc: Ft. Myers, FL
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Random Chaos]
      #62614 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:30 PM

Well, I'm off for the night. Time to unplug the computer and head out to the living room. It's going to be a long night...

I wanted to say thanks to everyone on this site for their insight and knowledge. To everyone in Wilma's path, stay safe!

Rebecca


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62615 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:30 PM

Just added some Grlevel X images. They update every 5 mins.

http://hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=4173


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Key West [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #62616 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:30 PM

Didn't see the usual press coverage of the evacuation of the Keys.
A report on CNN's coverage said that over half of the residents opted to remain.
Initially, the forecast was not for a healthy Cat 3 to hit, if I remember correctly.
Can anyone verify that Key West still has most of its residents??

Edited by BabyCat (Sun Oct 23 2005 11:33 PM)


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Sneakbridge
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Highlands County, Florida
Re: Key West [Re: BabyCat]
      #62617 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:33 PM

I was listening to the news earlier and they said 90% did not evacuate, as opposed to Marco where 90% of the population did evacuate. Don't ask me where they got their #s.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Key West [Re: BabyCat]
      #62618 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:35 PM

Derek Ortt said earlier on Hurricane City that only 15% of the people left the Keys. He said unfortunately the death toll could be very high!!!! He said a number that I don't want to repeat. There is no where to go when the water starts rising.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Key West [Re: Sneakbridge]
      #62620 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:39 PM

High gust here so far was 32mph.People are still parting here,although the cat3 upgrade did seem to sober the mood.I will be up most of the night,as I want to see how strong she will get.I can not do more than I have already done.It's hunker down time.Good luck to all.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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royener
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 11
Loc: Clearwater, FL
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: shrinkdoc weather watcher]
      #62622 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:41 PM

I was looking at the IR Floater Loop and was wondering if the definate line to the NW was a system acting on Wilma. It is showing a definate cut off, is this squeezing the storm further south?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Key West [Re: BabyCat]
      #62623 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:44 PM

I did hear on two different radio stations that only 20% of the residents in the Keys left the island. They showed some footage of people partying at various bars in Key West. They just mentioned about an hour ago that they are "no longer partying here."
Steve Jerve just went through when and what affects we will feel in each county.
Since I live in Polk, here's what he said:

9AM - 2PM :
Squalls/Tornados
Winds 30-50mph === possibility of being sustained winds
Gust to 60 possible.

So, I think maybe those of us in Polk county may be able to get some sleep tonight instead of waiting another 7 hours!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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KC
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 87
Loc: Naples, FL
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: royener]
      #62624 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:47 PM

Rain is just starting at my house (Naples - inland) so I ran the dogs out one last time - don't know when they'll get their next trip. The dogs and I are ready to move into the closet; husband is sleeping - glad to hear I don't have the only one sleeping tonight! Don't know how much longer we'll have power, so it's probably time to head back to the other side of the house. Thanks for all of the info tonight!

Karen


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Key West [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #62625 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:50 PM

Well, unfortunately, a lot of people decide not to leave when told to do so. I hate to hear that the death toll could be high, but if people didn't learn from Katrina, than I don't think they will ever learn. So now instead of dealing with a Cat 1, there are a lot of people who will be dealing with a low-to-mid Cat 3. I just hope those people who were partying will have enough sobriety left to deal with what is going to be a very dangerous situation.
I have little sympathy for those who are offered ways out but instead decide to stay and "ride it out", especially after the horrible toll that Katrina left in her wake in AL, MS, and LA.
That may sound cold, but it's the truth.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62626 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:51 PM

WFUS52 KMLB 240345
TORMLB
FLC069-240445-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0026.051024T0342Z-051024T0445Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1142 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TAVARES...HOWEY IN THE HILLS...
GROVELAND...FERNDALE...EUSTIS

* UNTIL 1245 AM EDT

* AT 1141 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER
CLERMONT... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
FERNDALE BY MIDNIGHT EDT
LITTLE LAKE HARRIS AND HOWEY IN THE HILLS BY 1230 AM EDT
6 MILES SOUTH OF TAVARES BY 1245 AM EDT

TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN WRAPPED IN
HEAVY RAIN AND ARE HARD TO SEE OR HEAR UNTIL THEY ARE VERY CLOSE. DO
NOT GET CAUGHT OFFGUARD!

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM...SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR
CLOSET AND KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE. WATCH FOR THE POPPING OF
ELECTRIC LINES AND TRANSFORMERS OR LISTEN FOR THE SOUND OF LOUD
RUMBLING AS THAT OF AN APPROACHING FREIGHT TRAIN.

LAT...LON 2854 8191 2847 8176 2848 8166 2886 8166
2886 8177

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: KC]
      #62627 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:52 PM

The local mets here are saying I can expect 6 hours of 75+ winds,a good chance of 100+ winds.Also said Palm and Broward counties will get the worst here on the east coast.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Key West [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #62628 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:53 PM

Hey Bob,

I'll be here all night with you. Looks like we are both going to get clobbered. Hurricane City program had 112 mph worst winds for me around 9 a.m. They said worst hurricane for you guys in Broward since 1964. They had the track going over the Palm Beach/Broward line. Pressure really starting to drop now. Down .05" in just the last hour to 29.59". Peak wind only 23 mph and no rain yet.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Key West [Re: WXMAN RICHIE]
      #62629 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:56 PM

I really hate to even ask this,But what are the chances she could get to a cat 4?

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Sneakbridge
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Highlands County, Florida
Re: Key West [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #62630 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:58 PM

I'm no expert but I think the eye would really have to reduce in size quickly and get nice and tight for there to be any chance for a 4... not thinking that is going to happen... Although, Charley did surprise a lot of people too though..

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 408
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: royener]
      #62631 - Sun Oct 23 2005 11:59 PM

I don't think there any place in the Keys that is more then 2 feet above sea level! Water came over US1 (the only road in/out) in Key Largo during Katrina's Cat 1 landfall, at Cat 3 coming from the SW will be much, much worst due to the shallowness of Florida Bay and the increase winds - plus you got to factor in Wilma's forward speed... all in all this not going to be pretty in southern FL.

High tide in Key West is 1:35AM (EDT 10/24) - which will be just slightly ahead of when the eye passes close to them. For tides in other places go here: http://66.135.8.10/tideserver/LocationSelect.asp pick FL as the state, pick the date and then scroll down. Tides are listed from north to south for the east (Atlantic) side till you hit Key West. Then tides pickup at Flamingo (Florida Bay) and are listed from south to north up the west (Gulf) side of the state. Marco Island will have high tide around 4:30AM, with landfall estimated to be around 6-8AM the surge will be very high I fear. I do alot of fishing in Florida Bay and the tides are much wind driven given the shallow water.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Key West [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #62632 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:00 AM

Quote:

I really hate to even ask this,But what are the chances she could get to a cat 4?




It can't completely be ruled out, but given that it has such a large eye, it will not be prone to rapid intensity changes. It may get a little stronger from where it is now, though. It is still possible that some weakening may set in before landfall, but time is running out for any sort of major intensity changes, one way or the other.


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tpratch
Moderator


Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Maryland
Re: Key West [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #62633 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:01 AM

She's experiencing relatively low shear, is in fairly warm waters and already made it up to Cat 3. Should her eye contract, I'd say there's a chance that she could. However, your guess is as good as mine, and the NHC's guess trumps us all If they issue an update cautioning against the possibility, then hold on tightly.

Stay safe everyone and thanks for making mod duty especially easy tonight.


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weathernut2
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Lake Wales fl
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62634 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:02 AM

thanks for the info on polk county. with the current track isnt it possible to make the same sudden shift as Charley did ?

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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: JMII]
      #62635 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:03 AM

Windley Key is 18 feet above sea level, but this is the highest elevation in the Florida Keys

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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BabyCat
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62636 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:03 AM

I hope they are all around to regret their choice.
I certainly don't like the graphics for the wind fields...
OR the surge forecasts...

Edited by BabyCat (Mon Oct 24 2005 12:06 AM)


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Sneakbridge
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 20
Loc: Highlands County, Florida
Re: Key West [Re: BabyCat]
      #62637 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:05 AM

It may be very stupid, but I think that is the thinking of some people from the Keys... They ride through the storms there. I'm not saying it is intelligent, but it does seem part of the culture for parts of the population.

Edited by Sneakbridge (Mon Oct 24 2005 12:06 AM)


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Ned
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 31
Loc: W.Coast Fl.
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62638 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:06 AM

Quote:

I did hear on two different radio stations that only 20% of the residents in the Keys left the island. They showed some footage of people partying at various bars in Key West. They just mentioned about an hour ago that they are "no longer partying here."
Steve Jerve just went through when and what affects we will feel in each county.
Since I live in Polk, here's what he said:

9AM - 2PM :
Squalls/Tornados
Winds 30-50mph === possibility of being sustained winds
Gust to 60 possible.

So, I think maybe those of us in Polk county may be able to get some sleep tonight instead of waiting another 7 hours!


Any word on Tampa?

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R2RICKSTER
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Loc: Delray Beach, Fla
Re: Category 3 Wilma, Strengthening, Moving Rapidly Toward Florida [Re: JMII]
      #62639 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:06 AM

With Wilma moving so fast by the time it gets to the east coast will there be any "calm time" in the eye, if it passes over me in Delray Beach ?

--------------------
Andrew was enough for me!


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Key West [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #62640 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:07 AM

Landfall continues right on NHC path..maybe slightly N of there near Bonita Springs.....I see no reason to disagree with a landfall between Ft Myers and Naples....36hrs ago I posted a premature forecast saying it would probably be Sarasota-Charlotte counties maybe a tad N or S of there...but given the drift E off the coast and never going N (like a couple models showed) this brings the center further down the coast by 50miles....Any jog to the N will be a Sanible Island landfall and any jog to the south would bring it over the Everglades.......since this does have a large circulation...Hurricane forces winds will be from Sarasota county south to near the keys. Also the east coast from N or Miami-Vero Beach. TS winds will be from Pasco County-Daytona......... Expect many tornados throughout the state tonight into the morning hours,,,especially in the hurricane warning area and south florida into the afternoon on monday........

This will be my last update on Wilma./

scottsvb


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: Key West [Re: Ned]
      #62641 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:08 AM

I just asked Colleen the same for Tampa, cause I missed Jervey, basically the same as your quote for Tampa

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Key West [Re: weathernut2]
      #62642 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:09 AM

No, I don't think it will make a sudden shift like Charley. Charley was moving slower than Wilma is now, and she is only expected to keep chugging along at a good rate of speed. Most mets (TV mets) have agreed that it's pretty much a straight shot with not a lot of deviation in track...of course they have to add that it *might* happen, but I think they are talking only about a fews miles left or right.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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weathernut2
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
Loc: Lake Wales fl
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62644 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:13 AM

The reason i brought up the shift like with Charley is because of the history of this storm when it came close to land before it hit cozumel it slowed down and took and more westerly course than they expected and also slowed down more than they had predicted as well. but right now im just watching for any meso's to pop up as they did earlier in the central part of the state.

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GoBigSurf
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 15
Loc: Port St. Lucie, FL
Re: Key West [Re: Sneakbridge]
      #62645 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:14 AM

My grandmother is "hunkered down" in Tavernier in the Keys. Her response is "I have made it this long, I'll be allright..." Conchys don't like to leave. I on the other hand, have been boarded up in Port St. Lucie since Thursday night. (Bad memories from last year's double whammy)

Other than the 5:00/11:00 NHC full adviseries, are there any other places to get updates on the sustained hurricane force winds in the mean time?

--------------------
Miami - Hurricane Andrew
Port Saint Lucie - Hurricanes Francis & Jeanne
etc...etc....etc....


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Key West [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #62646 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:18 AM

Well, this storm isn't going to make landfall until early morning, so there's no point in me sitting up all night waiting for it and then be exhausted in the morning! So I'm calling it a night...
I hope everyone stays safe and sound wherever you are!
Colleen

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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collegemom
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 82
Loc: Central Arkansas
Re: Key West [Re: weathernut2]
      #62647 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:18 AM

She's not gonna slow down but I still expect a tad more northern bend

--------------------
character has been defined as what we do when no one is looking


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Key West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #62648 - Mon Oct 24 2005 12:22 AM