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JohnS
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63336 - Sat Oct 29 2005 10:40 AM

Quote:

I think the birds know something. After Rita hit and my husband came home to survey the damage he found bird poop lined
up in a row along the bench and the windowsills on the back porch.




Are you saying that Rita scared the $heet out of them?

I read the site regularly now, and I appreciate all the time and effort people put into the posts to help keep people better informed. I also appreciate all the effort to keep this site up and running. It is a great service to all. I don't have cable, so this is one of my main souces for info.


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Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Loc: Jax, FL
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: MikeC]
      #63337 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:33 AM

Just a concern from a NON-weather expert living in north FL - can anyone explain to me why Accuweather is showing Beta north of Cuba heading toward FL by Thursday??? They always seem to be a bit different than anyone else with their speculations. Is this just to be different or are they using tools that no one else has access to?

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: JohnS]
      #63338 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:35 AM

Funny! However, that is what birds do better than eat. But, as far as storms go, when we were at Walmart on Sunday before Wilma, the birds were all so confused here in Central Florida. They were responding to the cold front from the north and the hurricane from the south and they were all flying around in small circles landing any place that would hold their weight and having conferences about what to do next. They reminded me of the congress, the various committees that get appointed after disasters and the general public trying to get information. So far we are not seeing any confusion like that with Beta. Every thing this morning is calm but there is a stiff wind. I am not looking forward to anyone in Florida getting another storm. The prices are high and grocery stores this direction are having a very hard time stocking normal nutritious fruits and vegetables. If you want junk food, chips and such for ball games it is a gold mine.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Hugh]
      #63339 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:43 AM

There isn't enough cold air around for snow/ice very far south... I think by "winter-like" they just want to emphasize the non-tropical nature of the system. The main concern would be severe thunderstorms.

Tough to tell because the eye is obscured, but it appears as if Beta is taking the expected turn to the left.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: JohnS]
      #63340 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:56 AM

I don't know if anyone has noticed, but...Honduras is going to get a heck of a lot more rain than Nicaragua. I am not sure why the focus has remained on Nicaragua all this time she was moving north.

Oh and good morning all...I slept in. I see the forecast is back up to 95kt at 11...as it should have been at 11 last night, to correspond to the rhetoric in the disc. Also good to see they are talking about major hurricane before landfall.

Another "pinhole eye;" shades of uneasy.

The 5am discussion from Stewart was so outstanding, esp compared to what we have seen the past two days.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63341 - Sat Oct 29 2005 12:05 PM

it isn't moving much at all, but beta's northward momentum seems to have slackened off now. seems the weight of almost all the globals is more than that bullish northward motion beta insisted on taking from its inception. really hard to know if the intensity numbers provider are close to right, since the storm is still small and the eye is concealed by thunderstorm blow-off. recon will better fix that info this afternoon, but the storm could be anywhere inside the strength range suggested by the Dvorak scores.
91L is not well defined anymore. the energy from it should propagate into the nw caribbean on the north side of then-inland beta, and get gummed up for a day or two. not very likely it can do something in that time, but a small chance will exist, as some of the models seem to see a weak low signature up there.
none of the models see more than a wave out of the feature near 50w, but it seems to have taken the forefront in terms of development candidates. it's been holding down persistent scattered convection on it's forward edge, and has a weak surface low at about 13n. upper low ahead of it should keep it under modest southerly shear, but it is moving into a high SST region and the shear profile may slowly relax over the next couple of days. pattern is modestly supportive of further development in the caribbean--with active waves like these the chances of such an event are high enough to merit attention.
HF 1605z29october


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roatanisland
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63342 - Sat Oct 29 2005 12:16 PM

Can anyone tell me what the probabilites of Beta hitting the Bay Islands of Honduras are? We live on the eastern end of the island of Roatan, the largest of the bay islands. We got some really bad weather from Wilma and are concerned with Beta moving in now. Just wondering if we should consider evacuating as there is a flight out tomorrow morning we can get on.

It seems like most of the tracking systems still show it going into the mainland of Honduras and staying to the south of us. But the winds have already started to pick up here and have been increasing. Any help or insight would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
Justin


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: GuppieGrouper]
      #63343 - Sat Oct 29 2005 12:37 PM

Currently, the trough over the easter contiguous U.S. that has brought cooler than normal weather for many areas east of 85W - in lieu of Wilma - and adjoining large-scale features are being transitioned into a new pattern. That is beginning to take place this morning!

The new regime will feature zonal to at times a very progressive trough above about 37N during the week and accompanied by flat ridging building into the areas of the deep south... Meanwhile, the counterpart expression of these large scale changes will tend a subtropical ridge dominance in the Atlantic Basin as well; which may in fact become connected to all and really drive a warm 3-5 day period for the southern 1/3 of the U.S..

Again, the infancy of all these changes beginning today.. As a side note, areas of the northeast U.S., currently getting unseasonably cool conditions with even some wet snow associated with a last gasp of foresaid trough, are going to experience a 20F temperature jump as close by in time as Sunday afternoon, do to these large scale changes. This is stated to demonstrate the rapidity in which these types of pattern changes can occur, and this will do so and most likely block any N moving tropical disturbances. Pattern at large is changing; the indexes that are used to determine the confidence levels for that prognostic are also quite lending to that confidence.

In simple terms, Beta has a very short lease on life... Yesterday in a post I stated that the TC had about 18 hours left of more N component to motion, then the ridge of the deep south and adjacent areas would begin to steer the system more W. The only fly in the ointment of that philosophy then was the exact degree of amplitude of the ridge that was replacing the trough, currently leaving the East Coast. Those uncertainties are disappearing per the last 24 hours of model runs combined with verfication of pressure/height rises currently taking place over the eastern Gulf and SE U.S.. These features mean that it is extremely unlikely that Beta will find the wherewithal to move much further N than the latitude already achieved. Any errors that were seemingly present in the models from 3 days ago, regarding the timing of such turn are finally ironing out - as indeed it appears the only error was that there was perhaps a bias to turn W too quickly... Those are no longer relevant from this point forward however; a, it's in the past, and b, large scale changes are more readily observed, present in the models, and will therefore begin to dictate more concertedly where Beta will motion - not this wobbly to the N routine... Definitely very W in nature over the next 24 hours.

Beyond the immediate storm surge and wind impacts at the shores, this is unfortunately likely to produce a tremendous amount of heavy rain over a landscape that has a particularly exaggerated vulnerability to flooding and mudslide activity. Extensive developmental practices of the land have caused erosion prone hill-scapes. I'm familiar with the wet season climatology of the area being April through December - however, rarely does this include these types of TC. There's been little to test the land-slidable loose hill-side sediments (save Mitch?). These are going have to take large rainfall deposition where formerly there were rain forests and/or deeper vegation root systems in general. The pre-developed era aided in preventing much of that... Remove those root systems and change the land-scape for hill-side farming and the SOIl loosens, and it's a nasty feed-back scenario where thousands of years of no mud-slides because of healthy flora system can result extreme short-duration catastrophics affects for having removed that system. In other words, "disaster potential" is exaggerated and needs lesser of triggers to have larger results... So, there are some uniquenesses about the geography of that area anyway, and over the last 100 years those in situ risks have been augmented by the presents and activities of man.

It simply is going to be a very rough day tomorrow and beyond for Central America; the last thing we need is this SHIPs hyper intensity guidance to go up to 65% on the last run! ...which it has.

Other than Beta...NHC mentions that the wave in the Central Caribbean still might get absorbed into Beta... I'm disinclined to agree. Beta has a very small, compact circulation that is equally small in how it controls the surrounding environment. Moreover, as soon as it moves inland it will begin losing potential influence.. In fact, from the statellite obs I've studied this moring, the wave is not being affected by Beta's presents at all, not even for outflow. To mention, there are subtlties in the steering levels for respective disturbances that don't really suggest an interaction is looming... It is for these reasons that I believe Beta will continue to migrate with increasing W component, move inland, while whatever the wave does it will likely do so unperturbed by Beta's evolution over the next 24-36 hours.

There is also a notable mid-U/A low that is tumbling though, decelerating into the eastern Caribbean Sea. These types of systems need some relatively rare scenarios to bore down to the surface to where they can couple with the SST's and begin transitioning into warm core systems... The current Caribbean arena is hostile to those situations.. It is more likely this feature will weaken as it move NW and lose identity altogether over the next 3 days.

Another system is approaching the Lesser Antilles from about 600naut miles (est by sat)...This wave occasionally hints at cyclonic orientation but seems to lose it again.. Provided the above mentioned U/A low is out of the area of the Caribbean - attenuation - this feature would likely encounter a favorable U/A as it enters the area; so something to watch.


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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 575
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: roatanisland]
      #63344 - Sat Oct 29 2005 12:57 PM

Quote:

Can anyone tell me what the probabilites of Beta hitting the Bay Islands of Honduras are? We live on the eastern end of the island of Roatan, the largest of the bay islands. We got some really bad weather from Wilma and are concerned with Beta moving in now. Just wondering if we should consider evacuating as there is a flight out tomorrow morning we can get on.

It seems like most of the tracking systems still show it going into the mainland of Honduras and staying to the south of us. But the winds have already started to pick up here and have been increasing. Any help or insight would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,
Justin




...You should "tentatively" be ok... There is some additional risk until Beta actually succeeds in making the more westward motion that is heavily anticipated by most forecast models and agencies alike..

...You should take note of your local methodogies for quick departure just in case, just to have those available, but right now it looks like you are on the lower end of the probability for being impact directly by this system.

...Current, watches are warning for hurricane Beta (NHC):

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA
PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA.
A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER
WITH COSTA RICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING
LA CEIBA.

...It appears that by this time tomorrow, Beta will be moving WNW if not W... This motion would bring it asshore over the extreme NE Coast of Nicaragua... From there it should move primarily W and begin losing intensity. This decay won't be too fast at first becauas the coastal plain in that area is fairly flat with slow rolling none-affectual hills. However, as it moves west the terrain will become increasingly hostile and taller. Beta is a compact storm so when she does begin to lose intensity, the suspicion is that it will be very quick... However, an extreme rain and flood threat will persist for a number of days, and this may enhance normal rainfall across the Bay Islands N of the Honduras shores - that's a beautiful area by the way!!

...In a nut shell, you probably do not need to evacuate but if you have access to "official" recommendations regarding the matter, I'd suggest you use those! In the meantimes, probably will be an impactor for area well enough S of you - slim margin granted, but S nonetheless...
Good luck!

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Oct 29 2005 12:59 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #63345 - Sat Oct 29 2005 02:58 PM

couple of comments:
1) beta's progress west, extrapolated, gives a landfall a little south of puerto cabezas around 04z or midnight eastern time. recon should shortly fix the intensity so we can get an idea of how fast it's deepening, and get a good idea of how much more it can do before making landfall. like the forecast says, cat 2 is the safest bet, though a small-core cat 3 wouldn't be surprising in the least. it has a definite hurricane signature on satellite, but by its compact size and eye being consistenly shrouded by convective blow-off the true intensity is hard to easily estimate.
2) what tip said about the beta/91L interaction. beta's circulation envelope is pressing against the slow, elongated gyre extending southeast of jamaica, but hasn't really entrained it. as beta will be ashore and weakening tomorrow, and this feature continuing to move through a moderately favorable development environment (ridging aloft, some surface convergence), it can potentially begin to assert itself.
3) potential recon for the surface low/spotty convection feature at 13/52 for halloween day. it is better defined than yesterday in spite of continued s/se shear from the upper low ahead of it. the upper low appears to be elongating and filling, which should result in an improved outflow pattern nearby.
in a nutshell, the idea of the caribbean crowding up isn't laid to rest by the finicky nature of 91L, as the original disturbance lingers and a new one approaches from the east.
HF 1858z29october


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63346 - Sat Oct 29 2005 04:33 PM

HURRICANE BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005
...BETA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT REPORTS
REPORTED OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N... 82.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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damejune2
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 237
Loc: Torrington, CT
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63347 - Sat Oct 29 2005 04:40 PM

I read Accuweather's "expert" comments on Beta a little while ago. A little alarming if you ask me telling folks that Beta could possibly go north after hitting Nic/Honduras. They are saying that it could go through Cuba and then South Fla........not something i wanted to hear about. Anyone got an idea on this?? I haven't read too much about Beta on NHC site; are they saying this is a possibility too?

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


Edited by damejune2 (Sat Oct 29 2005 04:40 PM)


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SEFL
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 9
Re: Thanks [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #63348 - Sat Oct 29 2005 05:16 PM

Things almost back to normal in northern Palm Beach County. My electricity came back today and there are no lines at gas stations.

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GuppieGrouper
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 596
Loc: Polk County, Florida
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: damejune2]
      #63349 - Sat Oct 29 2005 05:36 PM

That forecast is one of many model guesses. It is the one that will get the most viewers to read the website as well. However, the article does not say it will come to florida or effect florida just that it will come near Florida by Thursday if it takes that path.

--------------------
God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Beta Moves West [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63350 - Sat Oct 29 2005 06:14 PM

I should have stuck to my original take on Beta. First I thought the ridge was stronger than it turned out to be, then just as I decided it was weaker, it got stronger.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Thanks [Re: SEFL]
      #63353 - Sat Oct 29 2005 07:53 PM

FINALLY got my power back today here in Broward county., South Florida is about 50 % restored now. Gas lines are shortening and some stores are re-opening.
Personally, lost half of my roof and most of the trees, there were definetly Cat 2 wind gusts around here, locally they were reported at 108 MPH here in Dania Beach (1 mile from FLL airport.)

TG

quite a lick for a back-door storm coming across the everglades. hope the repairs aren't too long in coming. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Oct 29 2005 08:28 PM)


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Israel
Re: Thanks [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #63355 - Sat Oct 29 2005 10:20 PM

92L has been classified. Its the tropical wave nearing the Lesser Antilles.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Thanks [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #63356 - Sat Oct 29 2005 10:39 PM

92L is in the latest TWO - possible development over the next several days. Something to watch after Beta makes landfall.

--RC


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Hurricane Fredrick 1979
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 116
Loc: Mobile,Alabama
Re: Thanks [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63357 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:15 PM

The SHIPS model brings it to 62K in 82hrs.

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Beta: Category 2 [Re: Hurricane Fredrick 1979]
      #63358 - Sat Oct 29 2005 11:25 PM

11pm is out. Beta is now officially a Category 2, and has the possibility of reaching Cat 3 before landfall.

--RC


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