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Bay of Campeche area now being tracked as Invest 92L. 40% chance for development, likely to be a rain event, with most of it on the east.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 227 (Zeta) , Major: 290 (Laura) Florida - Any: 976 (Michael) Major: 976 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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SkeetoBiteAdministrator
Master of Maps


Reged: Sun
Posts: 298
Loc: Lakeland, FL
Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes [Re: Old Sailor]
      #63419 - Mon Oct 31 2005 08:17 PM

1) Dennis - Cat 4
2) Emily - Cat 4
3) Katrina - Cat 5
4) Maria - Cat 3
5) Rita - Cat 5
6) Wilma - Cat 5
7) Beta - Cat 3

.


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Multi-Decadal Signal
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 149
Loc: BROWARD
Re: I am back from Wilma [Re: dave foster]
      #63420 - Mon Oct 31 2005 08:46 PM

Finally back on line. FPL got its act together. Hope that all are well with, at most, minimal damage.

--------------------
Who you gonna' believe?
Me, or your damn lying eyes?
_Ö_ _ö_


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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 318
Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes [Re: SkeetoBite]
      #63421 - Mon Oct 31 2005 09:14 PM

Look how many of those affected the US. Dennis-Florida, Emily-south Texas, Katrina-LA, MS, AL, and FL, Rita-Southeast Texas and
LA, Wilma-Florida. Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma actually made landfall in the US. And everyone of these made landfall
from the Gulf. Interesting.


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dave foster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 73
Loc: UK
Re: I am back from Wilma [Re: Multi-Decadal Signal]
      #63422 - Mon Oct 31 2005 10:15 PM

Well, looks like 92L is back, and moving at a fair lick by the look of it.

It's track appears to be taking it over the large islands which should keep it quiet hopefully.

--------------------
Dave Foster
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 160
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
November! [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #63423 - Tue Nov 01 2005 01:34 AM

Happy November all, hope this is it for 2005!

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: November! [Re: Doombot!]
      #63424 - Tue Nov 01 2005 01:58 AM

nothing but some frontally associated features shown on the models in the coming days. with NAO positive the chances of hybrid cutoffs is low. SOI pulsed to weakly negative and an MJO wave is coming on in a week or two, but things aren't looking too perky right now. 91L washed out into a trough, 92L isn't well defined.
HF 0658z01november


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: November! [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63425 - Tue Nov 01 2005 11:58 AM

Quiet is good!!!!!

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: November! [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63426 - Tue Nov 01 2005 01:39 PM

Quiet in the tropics = quiet on this board...

The first I don't mind.

I just wish it didn't lead to the 2nd


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: November! [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63427 - Tue Nov 01 2005 01:45 PM

Year end analysis can't be far away?

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63428 - Tue Nov 01 2005 01:46 PM

All the major storms became hurricanes west of 50W

Edited by Lee-Delray (Tue Nov 01 2005 01:47 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1177
Loc: fl
Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63429 - Tue Nov 01 2005 01:51 PM

center of a weak low pressure is 125 miles SW of Naples moving NE. The system is developing gradually but will probably not develop into a depression as its core is small and will encounter land in 6-8hrs. It should develop more once it gets east of florida tomorrow morning and could be classifed tomorrow evening. In the next 2 days however it will become more of a hybrid system and merge into a larger low pressure system over the N Altantic.......anyways its just interesting to watch right now in its developing stage off of Naples...I expect sw florida to have some gusty winds near 30-40mph and possible isolated tornados near the landfall and over extreme s florida later this evening into tonight until the center passes off the coast tomorrow.

scottsvb


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Tak
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
Re: November! [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63431 - Tue Nov 01 2005 05:22 PM

From Dr. Gray's Oct 3 forecast:

"We will be issuing our forecast verification for the 2005 Atlantic basin hurricane season on Friday, November 19. The first forecast for the 2006 hurricane season will be issued on Tuesday, December 6. All forecasts are available on our website at: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts"


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: November! [Re: Tak]
      #63432 - Tue Nov 01 2005 05:30 PM

Do we really ned to hear this Dec 6th?

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Tak
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
Re: November! [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63433 - Tue Nov 01 2005 05:33 PM

I think it was Dr. Gray who said, "the hurricane game is won in the off season". Might as well hear it about it Dec 6. More time for more prep.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Cat II Beta Hits Nicaragua; Invest 92L Slowly Organizes [Re: scottsvb]
      #63434 - Tue Nov 01 2005 05:42 PM

near florida... that's a baroclinic profile. sheared environment along an old frontal boundary, set to merge with an oncoming front... naw, i wouldn't expect any tropical development out of it. may take over as the primary low as the shortwave picks it up, become a noreaster type system well offshore.
some of the modeling is showing a piece of the front it leaves tailing in and east of the bahamas, with an inverted trough moving along it to it from the east and inducing another surface low at the end of the week out to sea. probably will be too much shear around for it to do anything, in spite of warm ocean waters below.
the SOI downward pulse we've had hasn't translated to backing in the tropics yet. this late in the year it usually results in a monsoon trough-type feature in the sw caribbean across into the pacific, rather than the further westward feature that tends to form in the summer (esp in el nino years). not impossible that the western caribbean will remain a center of focus. active monsoon trough off africa as well, but waves are entering a rough zone in the central atlantic. ITCZ is depressed over the atlantic but far enough north that anything nearing the caribbean should be over water. the region from east of the islands to the western caribbean will remain the focal area for anything else that tries to start up in the current pattern.
until some blocking events or nao negative setting up, don't expect much in the way of subtropical hybrids. based on the circulation profile of the basin though, doesn't look like we're finished yet. october was exceptionally active (six storms, four hurricanes, two major)... with a similar pattern to late october holding i don't see why november won't try to cough up another storm or two.
then again it could be that my ability to sense inactivity is fried by the tremendous activity we've had this season and doesn't work anymore. sometimes an active october is followed by a quiet november (1995), or an active one (2001).
HF 2242z01november


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: November! *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Tak]
      #63435 - Tue Nov 01 2005 06:00 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Tak
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
Re: November! [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63437 - Tue Nov 01 2005 06:12 PM

Yeah, that too.

But I also got a lot done last off season and will continue right on this year too. A few more precautions/improvements left to go. Then it comes down to a little luck. Maybe we'll all get lucky next year and they will all stay out to sea.


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: November! [Re: Tak]
      #63440 - Wed Nov 02 2005 07:14 AM

Ah, excellent TWO this morning:

530 AM EST WED NOV 2 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH


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NONAME
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 136
Re: November! [Re: Tak]
      #63441 - Wed Nov 02 2005 07:16 AM

There is a flare up of convection in the Central Carrib with what i think is from what was 92L Look like it might try to make a comeback but I dont think it will with that trough comeing trough and it has quite a bit of shear.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.

Edited by NONAME (Wed Nov 02 2005 07:18 AM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: November! [Re: Tak]
      #63443 - Wed Nov 02 2005 11:39 AM

Much more interesting than the forecasts at Colorado State were the comments Dr. Gray submitted to Nature and Science on the two articles that caused such an uproar this year, saying that hurricanes are getting more destructive due to global warming (link in the upper LH corner of their web site). He came out firing with both barrels and it was a great read.


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