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Bay of Campeche area now being tracked as Invest 92L. 40% chance for development, likely to be a rain event, with most of it on the east.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 227 (Zeta) , Major: 290 (Laura) Florida - Any: 976 (Michael) Major: 976 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean
      #63456 - Fri Nov 04 2005 07:12 AM

It's November, the last and usually a quiet month of the Hurricane Season. This year, even as record breaking as it has been, seems no different in this respect.

In November, you usually look toward the Caribbean for late season storms, and right now there is a wave in the southwestern Caribbean that is indeed being watched.



This wave seems to be getting a little better organized, but still has quite a ways to go before depression status, so it may never make that since it is relatively close to land, and conditions are only marginial for development. But still we will be watching it.

Outside of that, it is very quiet in the Tropics, thankfully.

Chances for tropical development in the southwestern Caribbean in the next two days:
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---*------------------]





Event Related links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands


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Wingman51
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Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: MikeC]
      #63458 - Fri Nov 04 2005 08:35 AM

As we enter the last month, I want to take a moment to publically thank the Mods and the experts for all of the work they have done on the board during a very busy season. Although at times, tempers and opinions have been at the very edge of civility, we have been able to depend on this board for accurate and thoughtful insights into current and forcasted conditions. I am by no means an "Expert" but I have learned a tremendous ammount of new info over the last 2 years and this board has been the major contributor. Her's hoping that the season is finally over and that all who post and read here have a safe and blessed holiday season.

Thanks ALL


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doug
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Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: Wingman51]
      #63459 - Fri Nov 04 2005 12:32 PM

Well said; couldn't agree more. The Mods improved the access to data and the contributions by all were informative, even if not accurate or sometimes "off the wall". Great to monitor and occasionally participate...
Will continue to do so as long as there is something to watch.

--------------------
doug


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Margie
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Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: Wingman51]
      #63460 - Fri Nov 04 2005 12:32 PM

As of this morning, conditions have become very much more favorable for development in the SW Carib...which is not to say that anything will develop. This is not reflected in the wording of the 1130 TWO, which does at least acknowledge the possibility.

Upper level anti-cyclonic motion is combined with three good possible outflow channels, low shear, and increasing vorticity, above the area of disturbed weather from the tropical wave.

Regardless, the continuing heavy rains are causing a huge problem for the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, still dealing with the effects of flooding from Beta.

* * * * *

Well more knowledgeable folks than myself disagree...from the aft TWD:

LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS DON'T APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

Is this because of all the dry air moving in strongly from the eastern Carib (can be seen on the floater)?

* * * * *

Mid-aft...please tell me I am seeing things. Looks like a LLC at about 12N between 80-82W, no assoc convection.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Fri Nov 04 2005 03:47 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: Margie]
      #63463 - Sat Nov 05 2005 05:25 AM

While I agree that the SW Caribbean looks busy. NHC/ TPC aren't calling for any development. As of the 1030PM EST TWO, and the 105AM EST TWD.

Here's the 0945Z image from the SW Caribbean.
Thin cirrus outflow is seen from the North through the East. Low level circulation appears to be nearly onshore at the Nicaragua/ Costa Rican Border.


Edited by danielw (Sat Nov 05 2005 05:37 AM)


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Margie
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Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: danielw]
      #63465 - Sat Nov 05 2005 10:08 AM

Morning...I just logged on and noticed that myself (it can be seen very well until the transition to daylight)...no assoc convection at all, possibly not even assoc with much of a lower pressure, but a clearly-defined LLC, spinning away. This is kind of interesting to me; I didn't realize that could exist alone for such a long time without being a precursor of a TC forming.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Storm Hunter
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Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: Margie]
      #63470 - Sun Nov 06 2005 04:29 PM

ALL LOOKS TO BE QUITE.... weird how TODAY appears to be the deadliest tornado outbreak this season (2005).... the us almost got threw a year with out too many deadly tornadoes....

back to topic... found this the other day.... this is from Rita.... WOW towers up to 18km.... pretty high! water below was around 33C

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/135135main_TRMM_Hurricane_RitaSept30.jpg
more HOT TOWERS!
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/rita_hot_towers.html


Rita page from nasa:
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/h2005_rita.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker


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Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63471 - Sun Nov 06 2005 06:43 PM

Thanks for sharing. I keep a record of all the storms but of course I am most interested in Rita.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: November, Slow But Watching the Southwestern Caribbean [Re: Beaumont, TX]
      #63473 - Mon Nov 07 2005 01:22 AM

some stuff on Wilma

http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/136650main_Wilma_trmm_ppt_lg.jpg

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: Wilam Article [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #63474 - Mon Nov 07 2005 09:14 AM

The Palm Beach Post has an interesting article on Wilma's strength today. It's a quick interesting read.

www.palmbeachpost.com


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Wilam Article [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63475 - Mon Nov 07 2005 09:31 AM

Saw an interview with Max Mayfield Friday.He said the reports that Wilma being a cat 1 are wrong,and they did not come from the NHC.He goes on to say Wilma was a cat 3 storm.I will take Max's word on this one.The house next to me has a weather station and recorded a peak gust of 137mph.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: Wilma Article [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #63476 - Mon Nov 07 2005 09:45 AM

I'd never go against Max Mayfield. I agree, I saw winds of 118 mph in my area. The only thing funny was that it was a dry storm. My pool need water before the storm, but I obviously didn't fill it. After the storm, the pool was just about at the right level, which means I got an inch of rain.

We got more rain from last week's thunderstorms.



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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Wilma Article [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63477 - Mon Nov 07 2005 12:34 PM

The Category rating is linked to the highest one-minute sustained winds that are found somewhere in the storm...this does not mean that the entire area that the storm passed over experienced these highest sustained-wind conditions. Also, wind gusts do not count towards the Category rating. It is very possible to receive a high gust even with a Cat 1 storm.

The newspaper article is entirely consistent with the Cat 3 rating, acknowledging, essentially, that somewhere possibly in the everglades there was a small area on the coast that did experience sustained Cat 3 winds, but also entirely correct in stating that no instruments in any of the areas of SFL recorded anything but Cat 1 sust winds, and if Cat 2 sust winds were experienced, it was likely over a very small area of SFL.

Note that with Dennis there was only one instrument that recorded one-minute sust winds supporting Dennis's Cat rating at landfall, and that there were some places where Dennis's strongest winds did not drop down to ground level, so that many places did not experience high winds with Dennis, but nevertheless the Cat rating was valid.

Now I was very put out with the AOML wind analysis for Katrina and even posted the same somewhere else on the board...haven't even had time to go correct the gross error I made in the post, which was some of the diagrams used mph and some kts. Now even with that adjustment, the wind gusts measured by NWS stations for Katrina do seem to indicate sustained windspeeds a little higher than the AOML model, but over time I have changed my mind and believe that the model is much closer to truth than I believed at first. My main disagreement with the model is that I believe right on the coast the higher winds that are just offshore are experienced and that the friction with land builds up over the first say 1/2 mile to 1 1/2 mile inland. The feedback I had received about extreme wind damage was actually very close to the coast, much closer than I had realized at first, less than a 1/2 mile from the coast.

So overall I do not have a problem with the AOML model except it may be a little low, but not a whole lot, certainly not an entire Cat rating.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
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Re: Wilma Article [Re: Margie]
      #63480 - Mon Nov 07 2005 04:41 PM

I believe that a sustained wind at 101mph (or was it 104?) was measured at one of those key stations around the Biscayne Bay.. a bit away from the center. AOML has been talking about downing Katrina to a 3 based on some measurements taken as it crossed the Mississippi Delta. That might irk some people as to the value of such adjustments, when the central pressure and surge were consistent with a stronger system. Of course, the recon at the time is the best gauge of what the winds were.
HF 2142z07november


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Wilma Article [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63481 - Mon Nov 07 2005 05:54 PM

Well if Cat level is going to be based solely on max sust windspeeed, then they probably have a good shot, especially since their model uses a very generous assumption about friction with land reducing windspeed, right on the coast, and since most all the wind measurement devices that could refute the model output broke or were downed by surge before the max winds could be recorded.

I guess this then brings into question the validity of the Cat scale if it is just going to be tied to windspeed, when pressure and surge are also possible methods of assessing intensity. Now what happens in the case that flt lvl winds do not extrapolate down to surface level as expected (i.e, dropsondes show that surface level winds are not as high as could be expected, given flt lvl windspeeds).

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Lysis
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Re: Wilma Article [Re: Margie]
      #63482 - Mon Nov 07 2005 06:45 PM

A long time ago I made a thread in the hurricane ask/tell section attempting to invalidate the Saffir Simpson scale. I find this debate really interesting. Pressure is the only thing we can realistically measure, but the variability inherent between it and wind speed is painfully large.

It becomes even more perplexing when you consider that the categories are based on what damage will occur in the event the storm makes landfall. Only problem is, depending on where the storm hits, this damage will vary greatly! For example, my neighborhood could probably survive a nuclear bomb blast in light of our rigorous building codes and recent ‘cleansing’ per hurricane Charley. Likewise, since my home didn’t suffer ‘catastrophic damage’ with Andrew, does that mean that I did not experience a category 4/5 (or whatever they are calling him these days)?



In the end though, all this quibbling just makes me appreciate those vintage NW pacific monsters even more.

Just to throw something loosely related out there… I sorta think that Emily may have briefly been a ‘minimal’ category five for a few hours, which if true would make this season’s record of such storms infact four… not three.

--------------------
cheers

Edited by Lysis (Mon Nov 07 2005 06:54 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Wilma Article [Re: Lysis]
      #63485 - Mon Nov 07 2005 10:46 PM

Quote:

I sorta think that Emily may have briefly been a ‘minimal’ category five for a few hours, which if true would make this season’s record of such storms infact four… not three.




That was documented by the NHC discussion:

"5 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EMILY REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BRIEFLY AROUND 03Z..."

But it was inbetween advisories and they did not officially change Emily to Cat 5.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
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looking out [Re: Margie]
      #63486 - Tue Nov 08 2005 01:41 AM

in about a week a couple of the models are picking up on some potential activity in the caribbean. the strongly zonal pattern, with rather universal westerlies in the atlantic right now should kink up some, as a strong sharp trough passing off the east coast at the end of the week should modify the currently strong zonal flow.
cmc is showing a frontal-tail low near the ne caribbean around the weekend, while GFS sees an upper ridge with a slowed low level easterly jet in the western caribbean in a week to 10 days. at this point just watching for persistence in runs, as they're far out. pattern wouldn't support more than caribbean impact from either feature, as it would take one hell of an amplified pattern or a very anomalous and strong northward-displaced subtropical ridge to get a tropical cyclone to the united states this time of year.
by the way, it's been mentioned already... but the tornado deaths this year were at a very low 10 until sunday morning's F3 outside of evansville, IN. 23 people, one of which was 8 months pregnant, died in the tornado. there isn't much of a silver lining in 2005. just waiting for the inevitable blizzard.
HF 0641z08november


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Wilma Article [Re: Margie]
      #63494 - Tue Nov 08 2005 09:56 PM

Well we had Katrina pass through here as a cat 1,Then we just had Wilma come through.All I have to do is compare the damage,it's not even close.Wilma did at least 3 times the damage Katrina did here.So it would be very hard for anyone here to believe Wilma was a cat 1.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Tropics Guy
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Re: Wilma Article [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #63496 - Tue Nov 08 2005 10:14 PM

I experienced the eyewall with Katrina & Wilma passing through S Broward county. Katrina was like a bad thunderstorm as it mostly did tree & shrubbery damage. Wilma was much worse, it took off half my roof, most of the trees are a goner around here, and of course it wreaked havoc on the power and communication systems down here. It is just starting to get back to normal around here, though we will see Wilma's scars for quite some time. Wilma may have been reported as a strong Cat 1 when she passed through Broward but, being through the experience and seeing the aftermath there is no doubt in my mind at least in this area that there were strong Cat 2 winds around here.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
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Re: Wilma Article [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #63500 - Wed Nov 09 2005 07:14 AM

I just checked the October summary for hurricanes at the NHC...it doesn't say anything about Cat 1:

Quote:

THE HURRICANE STRENGTHENED AS IT APPROACHED THE
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...AND IT MADE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE ROMANO ON
24 OCTOBER WITH CATEGORY 3
INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING FLORIDA IN LESS THAN 5 HOURS.
WILMA MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST TO THE NORTH OF PALM BEACH AS A
CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE. IT REGAINED CATEGORY 3 STATUS JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
...AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED THEREAFTER.




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Doombot!
Weather Guru


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Re: looking out [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63514 - Thu Nov 10 2005 02:29 AM

The 00Z CMC, UKM and NOGAPS are all picking up on some development in a few days. Any met comments on how likly that is?

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
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Re: looking out [Re: Doombot!]
      #63515 - Thu Nov 10 2005 06:13 AM

GFS is also showing something. It appears two locations have the potential of genisis: West Carribean and just east of Peurto Rico.

CMC is showing a system spinning off the tail of the cold front and forming off Peurto Rico. NOGAPS and UKM pick up on this some, but also form another low with circulation in the west Carribean. GFS then forms something in the west Carribean.

I checked both low pressure and vorticity models - CMC is the model showing the best organization to anything, but then models aren't really good when the system hasn't even formed yet.

We'll have to wait and see with this. We might have 0 systems, 1 system, or 2 systems within a few days.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: looking out [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63517 - Thu Nov 10 2005 07:54 AM

looks like some say "maybe"; some say "no". I just hope its a fish spinner.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: looking out [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63518 - Thu Nov 10 2005 11:32 AM

The area in the SW Caribbean, while never developing, has never gone dormant, either, since Beta. There is still a lot of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave near Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and if conditions become more favorable for development, then that is a likely area. I am assuming the other likely area will be wherever the tropical wave that is currently in the eastern Caribbean is located at that future point in time.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: looking out [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63520 - Thu Nov 10 2005 11:58 AM

The pattern is finally changing across the US, but it's not going to one to enhance the potential for tropical formation in our basin. It's that time of year where we get deep troughs entering the Gulf of Alaska, sitting and spinning for a couple of days, then moving SE toward British Columbia/Washington as much weaker systems. We tend to see a lot of cut-off lows near southern California in this type of regime: one forming, getting ejected into the midlatitude pattern again about 3-5 days later, and another one taking it's place. We've got a similar setup now, with a cut-off low that appears primed to eject into California off of the west coast right now.

In our basin, that's translating to a trough just off of the east coast with a reinforcing shortwave behind it. An upper-ridge, which previously was fairly stationary and better defined, is located near western Cuba. There's a lot of really dry air and mid-level shear associated with this wave, squelching any activity. Everything east of 50W is done; despite what we have seen this year so far, I am pretty confident in saying that we're not going to see anything out there for the rest of the season. The most favorable region right now is the extreme SW Caribbean just north of Panama, where Beta formed, but this favorable region is confined so close to land that it's going to take the ridge sliding a bit back toward the north and a shortwave north of Puerto Rico lifting out to get something going.

Potential for a hybrid or subtropical-tropical conversion system always needs to be watched this time of year, but we're probably quiet for at least another 3 days overall...and potentially longer. Models are picking up on something in the Caribbean later on into the weekend, but all of them have it at the end of/connecting with a frontal boundary in the central Caribbean except for the GFS. Not sold on the tropical nature/organization of what may form yet, nor am I sold on something actually getting going there. Nevertheless, it is still the 2005 hurricane season...if we thought anything could happen last year, we've really seen that this year.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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HanKFranK
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Re: looking out [Re: Clark]
      #63521 - Thu Nov 10 2005 01:20 PM

there hasn't been great model consistency over the past few days as to what's going to happen in the caribbean next week, but they're getting a bit more persistent. NOGAPS and GFS have a low pressure forming between panama/colombia and jamaica with a weaker low near the ne caribbean (nogaps takes it ne, then cuts it off like a hybrid storm), ukmet has a big broad low in the central caribbean.. and the canadian has a pokey little hybrid to the east sort of like NOGAPS.
the 200mb winds on GFS are what's got my interest more piqued than before. they are showing upper ridging in the western caribbean as next week wears on. if that is the case and there's the kind of convergence the models are indicating at the surface, something will be up. the feature to the east looks less likely, as it is shown getting carried up into the kind of shear that would shred it. noteworthy that the GFS has no subtropical ridge above it, just a westerly 500mb jet. the prog it gives is a meandering low pressure/tropical cyclone that is still in the caribbean around thanksgiving. i'm thinking that if a real system existed, it would track something more along the lines of lenny in 1999 or odette in 2003.
checked some joe b comments, and he thinks something is up. the disturbed weather around panama has been inching a little poleward, so keep an eye on the area during the weekend.
later all.
HF 1820z10november


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damejune2
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Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63523 - Thu Nov 10 2005 05:07 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

--------------------
Gloria 1985 (Eye passed over my house in...get this...northwestern CT!)


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: damejune2]
      #63524 - Thu Nov 10 2005 05:14 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


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Re: looking out [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63525 - Thu Nov 10 2005 05:37 PM


I guess the NHC agrees; something may be a foot?

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST THU NOV 10 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER PANAMA AND THE
ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1024
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Re: looking out [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63526 - Thu Nov 10 2005 05:50 PM

NHC, et al only report on systems that are actively forming. Models detect things before they form. Of course those of us here will talk about what the models show reguardless of what NHC, et al are saying!

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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: looking out [Re: damejune2]
      #63527 - Thu Nov 10 2005 06:10 PM

It is TWC's and Accuweather's job to forecast what weather will impact the United States (and, to a lesser degree, other areas of the world) in the next few days. It is the NHC's job to forecast the potential for tropical cyclone formation over the next couple of days and then to forecast the strength/track of a system once it has formed. They are watching everything we are -- and much, much more -- but it does not get disseminated in some product to the public because no such product exists. There's no reason for it to be, either -- there's nothing out there of immediate concern. Rest assured that they are watching the tropics more closely than we are on a day-to-day basis.

right--their job, my hobby. unless you guys want to start paying me to post here. or to not post here.... -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Thu Nov 10 2005 08:16 PM)


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: looking out [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63528 - Thu Nov 10 2005 06:11 PM

Right as of this evening, conditions don't look as good as they did a week ago when a LLC formed, but was then mashed into the S Nic coast before it could develop any lasting convection. But clearly shear has reduced right in that little notch north of western Panama, even if the shear analysis doesn't quite show it. And according to the cimss product, vorticity there is definitely better than a week ago, on both coastlines.

Well, perhaps another interesting week ahead, but definitely nothing to be thrilled about if you happen to be in Nicaragua. I think the same thing will occur as last week, even if there is some development right there in the next couple days: it'll be ashore before it really can get going. And if something develops there in the EastPac, it'll be heading out to sea.

* * * * * *
Hey, look...I just sat down at the computer after getting home and eating a dinner, and checked out the floater, and gee, things are starting to cook down there in the SW Caribbean. I think I even see some circulation at about 9.5N 81W, right in the niche where I noticed there isn't that much shear (it looks like there is some, but nothing compared to what is surrounding it). That shear will aid outflow. Something to watch this evng.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp

Edited by Margie (Thu Nov 10 2005 08:15 PM)


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MapMaster
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Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: damejune2]
      #63529 - Thu Nov 10 2005 06:38 PM

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

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Random Chaos
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Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: MapMaster]
      #63541 - Fri Nov 11 2005 06:48 PM

NHC is saying the system is nearly stationary but has a chance to slowly develop. Could be another Beta...barely moving but growing ever more organized every day.

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Margie
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Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63544 - Fri Nov 11 2005 08:56 PM

Well I don't see another Beta, however that circ that moved offshore into the EastPac has been spinning like a little top, with convection popping up, all afternoon, just SW of the western coast of Panama, and I don't understand why that hasn't been classified as something. Am I just seeing an optical illusion.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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HanKFranK
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Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: Margie]
      #63545 - Sat Nov 12 2005 12:02 PM

thats a meso convective system core. it probably has a little turning at the surface, but it doesn't have the organized convection of a tropical cyclone. very low latitude and marginal environmental conditions, so i doubt it will do much. stuff generally doesn't form that close to central america on the pacific side.
the features of interest on the atlantic side, if they do anything, will develop very slowly... almost like geologic time. the models are divergent again about what's what and where. GFS has pretty much lost interest in an organized system in its recent runs, and now just shows a general region of disturbed weather in the caribbean. haven't seen the 12Z on anything else, but NOGAPS was favoring a system north of panama, and the canadian has a spurious looking system in the eastern caribbean that develops quickly and charges into heavy shear. euro is still showing generalized low pressure but no tropical cyclone.. while hpc's prog shows a tropical low in the western caribbean (this is nearly 24hrs old, though).
at the surface the weather near panama looks nowhere near organization, though the environmental conditions are such that something could fester there, and slowly develop once the ridging that models have been predicting in the western caribbean for days starts to pump up early next week.
to the east, near 10/56 there's actually a fairly impressive blow up along a wave, under light westerly shear. the wind field is curled around but not closed off. very hostile conditions to the north... but if it hangs out at the latitude it's at and moves slowly, that will be something worth watching. the globals have been suggesting two foci (not with great consistency) at either end of the caribbean for low pressure going into next week... that eastern deal was the one i doubted and it actually looks further along than panama right now.
bottom line: there's been enough model rumbling to suggest something may happen this week, joe b is clucking about it, and the synoptic pattern will at least allow disturbed weather to fester in the caribbean. whether we get a tropical cyclone (or in an insane situation two) out of all this is still 2-5 days out. i would rate the chances at this point as moderate.
HF 1658z12november


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Old Sailor
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93L [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63550 - Sat Nov 12 2005 03:10 PM

Navy has just listed as 93L , not sure if this low will make much of a system, NHC models tend to run the low into Central America as a 50 to 60 mph system maybe.. Time will tell.

Dave


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CoalCracker
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Re: 93L [Re: Old Sailor]
      #63551 - Sat Nov 12 2005 04:51 PM

Initial plots are up on South Florida Water Management site showing what, if anything, develops heading into Central America per Old Sailor's comments.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_93.gif


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damejune2
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Re: looking out *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63552 - Sat Nov 12 2005 06:42 PM

What would you rate the chances of any systems heading towards the US; like Fla, Ala, Miss, etc...??

extremely low. it's hard to get a system up this far north so late in the season, the waters in the northern gulf are below threshold (though they're still good east of florida), and you need a really amplified trough west/ridge east setup. still way too zonal for that, and the upcoming pattern supports lower than normal heights in the east. probably no dice. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Nov 13 2005 12:13 AM)


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NONAME
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93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: damejune2]
      #63553 - Sat Nov 12 2005 10:20 PM

Wow 2 Invest form in one night and it is november look like MJO has started in the Atlantic once again It look like 93L is going kuputt while 94L is flaring some nice convection and should be getting into a better enviorment for Devlopment It Might not be suprising if we have a Tropical cyclone in a couple of days mabye even Two Can I get some feedback on these thanks.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.

Edited by NONAME (Sat Nov 12 2005 10:21 PM)


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Random Chaos
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Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: NONAME]
      #63557 - Sat Nov 12 2005 11:09 PM

94L is in the location CMC has been showing something developing for a couple of days. This might be it.

Looks good for an early pre-TD system on IR - growing quickly. If it can maintain this rate, I wouldn't be surprised to see it classified as a TD tomorrow.

The track CMC takes this system on is between WNW and W. Here are the other model runs: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_94.gif

Also, Floater 2 has been moved to 94L.

--RC


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HanKFranK
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Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63564 - Sun Nov 13 2005 12:20 AM

naw man, floater 2 has been sitting there since that invest 92L was over there, back when beta was still active. that thing never developed, but two weeks later something has popped up to replace it.
i agree that it looks like it may well be classified soon. it looks to have a closed low at this point though cloud motions at night can be tricky, even on ir2. there's definitely a solid mass of convection present with the disturbance, so it looks like the developmental feedback mechanism is in place. that keeps up and it'll probably make it during the day sunday. close to the islands, so they might toss together a recon flight. more likely monday, though.
that's 94L. 93L is still just a broad mess near panama. a lot of convection has developed inland over columbia, and should wander out to sea into the broad low pressure in the region, while the upper air pattern has been consistently forecast to improve for this region. 94 looks to be leading the way right now, but i'd say that 93 has time on its side. both have had modest support from the models, but it's still a little surprising that one is already ramping up.
HF 0520z13november


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Margie
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Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: HanKFranK]
      #63565 - Sun Nov 13 2005 12:57 AM

Isn't that nifty... 94L formed right under the floater. [Jaws music...] just when you thought it was safe to go have a nice Sat evng away from the computer. What a diff six hours makes. Well now we've got the tortoise and the hare bookending the Caribbean. Oughta be a fun week.

Why am I seeing a little bit of outflow to the west, or at least not so much evidence of the westerly shear on the west side, I wouldn't expect to see any at all with that much westerly shear.

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Random Chaos
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Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: Margie]
      #63567 - Sun Nov 13 2005 09:36 AM

SSD gives a Dvorak classification of 1.5 to 94L now, but sat shows convection dropping in the core (though growing on the fringes). It needs a bit of time for organization before hitting TD now...but I'd be surprised if it doesn't make TD within a day or two.

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: Random Chaos]
      #63568 - Sun Nov 13 2005 01:18 PM

94L is looking like its in some shear right now. The circulation center you can very clearly see is off to the north and west of the deep convection. But its not really outracing the entire circulation as there looks like evidence of some low level turning in the atmosphere. I guess it is wait and see now.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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NONAME
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Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #63569 - Sun Nov 13 2005 07:52 PM Attachment (987 downloads)

GFDL Bring 94L up to a 4 in 114 hours looks like after tomorow it will start to devlop more and become a strong major hurrican going through the Central Carribean following a track like Emilys through it.

--------------------
I am a young Weather enthusiast and really want to get to college in a couple of years for meteorology.


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Old Sailor
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Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: NONAME]
      #63570 - Sun Nov 13 2005 08:07 PM

The GFDL models have gone from nothing to Major Hurricane and back to nothing the last 2 days so wouldn't count on that model right now Number of the models that do something has 94L as a strong TS or Cat 1 system.

Dave


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: 93L and 94L Two invest Form in One day in November! Starting to go Active again?!? [Re: Old Sailor]
      #63572 - Sun Nov 13 2005 09:16 PM

Special Tropical Distrubance statement was issued. Looks like TD 27 will form tonight.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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TD 27 [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #63573 - Sun Nov 13 2005 09:52 PM

Has formed. Just...Wow.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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Margie
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Re: TD 27 [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #63574 - Sun Nov 13 2005 10:16 PM

Yes and the discussion was written by Stewart...don'tcha love to read his. They are so thorugh and explain everything in a simple clear way.

Well looks like Central America could be seeing a lot of rain again next weekend, and possibly even a major hurricane.

What's with the pic of TD22 on the LH side?

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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Hurricane Dad
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Re: TD 27 [Re: Margie]
      #63576 - Sun Nov 13 2005 10:44 PM

Very Long time lurker - First post -

Margie,

I have noticed that when a new tropical system forms, the graphics do not update correctly for the first update. This is the case with sTD-22 listed on the top of the page. If you goto the NHC Site you will see the correct graphic.

Marc


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Doombot!
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Re: TD 27 [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #63577 - Sun Nov 13 2005 11:03 PM

Hell has frozen over. How about a new topic?

Funny you should mention it, I was cooking one up just now. El topic nuevo. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Nov 13 2005 11:11 PM)


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