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Recon finding #Sam a vigorous Cat 4 and may be knocking on Cat 5 w/ a tight inner core. Hopefully staying away from land.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Nicholas) , Major: 27 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1081 (Michael) Major: 1081 (Michael)
13.5N 49.0W
Wind: 145MPH
Pres: 943mb
Moving:
Wnw at 8 mph
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34.4N 64.3W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Moving:
E at 5 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Tropical Storm Gamma Forms Near Honduras
      #63729 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:44 PM

The remnants of Tropical Depression 27 have reformed in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea. Just off of the coast of Honduras -- and they've gained a name, too,

Tropical Storm Gamma, the season's 24th named system. The expected movement is toward the north and ultimately northeast, passing through the Keys and across extreme southern Florida as a strong tropical storm in 3-4 days.

Residents of the Florida peninsula, Bahamas, Outer Banks, and Cuba should pay close attention to the movement of this system over the next few days; the eventual forecast calls for it to rapidly accelerate up the east coast of the US and merge with a significant midlatitude weather system early next week.



More to come later.

Event Related Links

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

TS Gamma (from Skeetobite)
Click for full size:

Animated Model Graphic (Skeetobite)
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TS Gamma - Static Image
CIMSS TS Gamma Page

Edited by MikeC (Fri Nov 18 2005 06:04 PM)


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Katie
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 167
Loc: Winter Haven, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Clark]
      #63731 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:49 PM

Lovely...just lovely.

Here's to a wet Thanksgiving here in Florida most likely.

Or wet pre-Thanksgiving. Either way it is rain we don't need.

Edited by Katie (Fri Nov 18 2005 03:51 PM)


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Katie]
      #63732 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:55 PM

NOPE KATIE. WAY GONE BY NEXT THURSDAY. AND COOL YEA!!

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Katie]
      #63733 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:56 PM

totally a non event but for rain.The GFDL has it over done IMO and if the GFS and Bam are right and this stays weak it will go way south of Florida but this is NOT OCT or even early Nov.

The shear and cold water temps wil not allow this to go much more and i really think the NHC is even over doing this storm but gamma we have but nothing more then some rain and no wind event or surge just some rain.


My only question is when will the rain come? i hope it holds off till sunday afternoon here on the west coast of Florida.


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras *DELETED* [Re: HURRICANELONNY]
      #63734 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:57 PM

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63735 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:59 PM

oh please no electric this thing is not going to be a wind event IMO if its even a depession ill be suprized if it even makes it here.

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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Weather Station [Re: Katie]
      #63736 - Fri Nov 18 2005 03:59 PM

Here is a weather station on the small island(Roatan) off of Honduras very near the center. Winds have been sustained at 45 gusting to 60 mph during the past few hours and the pressure is at 29.58".

http://63.245.92.231/Current/Current_custom.htm

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: ralphfl]
      #63737 - Fri Nov 18 2005 04:00 PM

The official intensity forecast (max at 55 kts) seems pretty bullish considering that they only have the GFDL to use as a basis for that prediction and the environment seems to be rather unfavorable, though if it turns NE, the effective shear may be reduced somewhat.

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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Katie]
      #63738 - Fri Nov 18 2005 04:00 PM

It will be a wet and breezy day on Monday, probably staying as a TS through the Keys or extreme South Fla.
The shear should keep this in check, if not weaken it as it approaches South Fla, nothing to get too excited about.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: ralphfl]
      #63739 - Fri Nov 18 2005 04:02 PM

Hey in Boca today someone sneezed and we lost power. I agree the NHC is most likely over doing it, but with the electric lines being held together with spit and glue it won't take much.

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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63740 - Fri Nov 18 2005 04:05 PM

I don't think it will be much of anything. The high tops have warmed and the shear is up to 25knots. Some rain for s.fl and the keys. Other then that it's is still amazing. Maybe will have one every month. I need a break!

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ralphfl
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 435
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63741 - Fri Nov 18 2005 04:05 PM

does it look like a wet start to Sunday? i really hope it holds off here on the west coast till sunday night.

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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #63742 - Fri Nov 18 2005 04:07 PM

I agree and the center is not so well-formed either so I think they're jumping the gun on naming this one, it must be based on windspeed.

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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Margie]
      #63743 - Fri Nov 18 2005 04:16 PM

Does anyone think they're being overly cautious becuase they under rated Wilma?

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Tak
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 41
Loc: Altamonte Springs, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Margie]
      #63744 - Fri Nov 18 2005 04:21 PM

I had been watching IR4 sat earlier and it looked like convection bloomed up around 12 UTC for a couple of hours. Color looked like -90 C but then it warmed up. I guess that was enough to push it over the edge and close the circulation.
If there is an upside, even though it is projected to be a "small " event it will at least bleed off some heat/energy out of that basin.


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Tak]
      #63746 - Fri Nov 18 2005 04:33 PM

I'm not normally one to throw out comments like this but i dont think the NHC is overdoing this really. With recon finding a closed circulation, and the Bay Islands reporting sustained tropical storm force winds, NHC really had little choice but to classify it as Gamma. Sure, their forecast track and intensity may be off, and Gamma may not last all that long, but one thing for sure is that it is here now - and the observations support that.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Lee-Delray
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Rich B]
      #63747 - Fri Nov 18 2005 04:37 PM

Rich-

We're not denying its a TS; we're questioning the strength as it moves closer to Florida.


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Rich B]
      #63748 - Fri Nov 18 2005 04:39 PM

I agree, this is a tropical storm, just check the conditions at the weather station link to Roatan Island that I posted a little while ago. Winds have even gusted there to 60 mph and the pressure at that station if calibrated correctly is a bit lower than that estimated by the NHC.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma forms near Honduras [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63749 - Fri Nov 18 2005 04:39 PM

Apologies, i seem to have misunderstood.

I too would question the forecast strength, especially given the current shear, and the forecast upper-level conditions. wouldnt be surprised to see it absorbed by the frontal system sooner than indicated. However, it does pose a real threat to south Fla, admittedly not as a major system, but a potentially dangerous system nonetheless.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 426
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Tropical Storm Gamma [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #63750 - Fri Nov 18 2005 04:43 PM

Gamma's strength will depend on how long it can stay over open warm water in the NW Carribean before it shoots toward, orver , and beyond Florida. The SST is not as warm in the GOM - still, speed is a factor of how strong Gamma will be when it impacts on Florida.

--------------------
________2017 Forecast: 12/6/3________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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