Margie
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Rhome started invest 98E overnight and since it looks better than some of the previous invests, in spite of heading towards some very dry air, I thought I'd start a thread on it. Also it's not likely to go anywhere except continue wnw, but it has pulled away from the and has developed significant convection and good organization over the past 12 hours.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
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Never got it's act together and likely to be history soon.
Meanwhile...slow mover 04W NONAME (Ewiniar) has had its 40th (!) advisory issued by , and will shortly make landfall.
* * * * * * *
Guess I wasn't paying enough attention.
Looks like 98E has become 03E NONAME on web site, and the next eastpac is out shortly. Big convective blowup around the center. Easier to see right now on the eastpac sat image than the floater.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Mon Jul 10 2006 11:23 PM)
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Margie
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Going back to Sunday morning when it looked like ollie ollie infree for 98L, estimates from SSD at the time had dropped to "too weak."
TD-Three-E now up on web site. From the discussion: "TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 625 NMI SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E."
Appears it'll get to "Bud" (there's not enough real names...we have to go with nicknames?). Almost even odds on reaching minimal hurricane strength in a couple days.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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cieldumort
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Bud looks like a lock with 3E. Wouldn't be surprised to see >50 mph advisory by sunrise.
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Margie
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Bud is up to T3.0 this aft from SSD. Entirely possible we could see Hurricane Bud. Also the disturbance to the east, invest 90E, looking better.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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Margie
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Stacy, along with Jamie Rhome, issued a special advis at 2230Z to upgrade Bud to a hurricane. It was interesting to watch the spiral band wrap completely around the center this afternoon (starting at about 2030Z). Now forecast to reach Cat 2. The eye formed and cleared out unusually quickly, so by early morning I wouldn't be surprised to see a major hurricane. SSD T-number increased to 4.5.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
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cieldumort
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imho, they were a little bit conservative in their advisory this morning.. really not at all surprised to see Bud already a hurricane... might take him a while to tighten back up after that eye popped out, but certainly can see a high-end Cat 2, or greater, within 36 hours as a real possibility if not likelihood 
In the future, suggest that you state your reasoning behind your intensification forecast - otherwise it could be considered as nothing more than hype or conjecture by many of the readers.
Question: Where do I find the direct link from the main page to your east pac thread? (had to scroll through 96L to find it) Tanks 
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jul 11 2006 11:35 PM)
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Margie
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Quote:
Question: Where do I find the direct link from the main page to your east pac thread? (had to scroll through 96L to find it) Tanks
Thought I'd posted a reply to this...I select other forums on the RH side, and then select other storm basins, and then this thread; kind of a roundabout way but I don't know any other.
I think I had posted a reply! maybe a half hour ago, because I remember mentioning 90E is now 04E NONAME on the web site. note: now TD Four-E on web site.
Cloud tops continue to warm, a downturn of convective activity, and a loss of moisture on the eastern side, where some of the convection associated with 90E / 04E NONAME are approaching, since 2330, although structure continues to look good, so it's a little hard for me to get a handle on what's happening with Bud. This doesn't look like rapid intensification, but perhaps it is reorganizing; see where it is around 0800Z.
The 8pm PDT discussion continues indicating rapid intensification so I assume this must be due to the good organization; the eye remains visible, and a smaller core appears to be consolidating around the center.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Tue Jul 11 2006 10:59 PM)
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Margie
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It is now very obvious on sat imagery that Bud is continuing to intensify...is continuing to reorganize around a small symmetrical core, and the eye is clearing out rapidly. It may be that convection will start to build up again in the central core now.
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Finally a decent microwave image; was curious to see the SSD intensity, which I thought would be out by now, but guess that'll have to wait until morning.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Wed Jul 12 2006 01:12 AM)
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Margie
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Bud did reorganize last night as a compact hurricane. This morning's appearance is different from 12 hours ago, but the intensity appears to be about the same. Convection continued to build around the center overnight and appears this morning as a tight spiral around the center. The eye is obscured by the and a small burst of convection on the eastern side right now, but the first daylight pass did show the location clearly (at about 15.7N 116.2W). It is edging a little further north of the previous track.
The next advisory should be out shortly.
From the discussion by Mainelli and Pasch:
INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS REVEALED AN OBSCURED EYE PATTERN WITH THE HURRICANE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH THE REDEVELOPED EYE PATTERN...JUSTIFIES RETAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT. IF THE EYE BECOMES MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT THE INTENSITY WOULD BE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.
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Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp
Edited by Margie (Wed Jul 12 2006 11:01 AM)
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Margie
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The eye is starting to clear out, and mid-morning microwave passes showed a complete eyewall.
Convection is consolidating again, and Bud is more compact than this morning, as it turns out appropriately named, providing an odd counterpart to loosely organized flowering Carlotta.
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The eye did clear out and Bud is really looking better. However SSD T-number at 1800Z was still T4.5. Time's running out for Bud to make it to major hurricane status, but it appears to be very close.
Continues to oscillate a bit around the track path due to the lopsided convection. A recent microwave pass from 1629Z continued to show good organization with a closed eyewall and stronger convection wrapped just a little more than halfway around, and one spiral band immediately connected to the core circulation.
Edited by Margie (Wed Jul 12 2006 04:13 PM)
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Margie
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Advisory #9 increased the intensity to 90kts. Bud has just about reached the border of 28deg C water. The well-defined eye is large in comparison to the small symmetric area of convection, but is not cleared out (a water vapor image shows that convection still lopsided in terms of intensity).
It appears on sat imagery that the eye has expanded a little and become more symmetric the last couple hours (if the eye gets any larger it is going to remind me a little of Epsilon). This may mean the structure is more stable, which will enable the storm to continue to hold together nicely over the next day or two, with intensity dropping off slowly. With water temperatures decreasing, it doesn't appear that convection will be able to ramp up enough to push the winds up to 100 kts. The diurnal max in about 10-12 hours will be the last call for this to happen, but the convection may have lost ground by then and will just be playing catch up to the current intensity.
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Margie
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Ha! The eye shrunk, pressured dropped, winds increased...Bud is now Cat 3. Been watchin' this evening but kind of busy so I didn't post...but I was thinking it looked promising.
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cieldumort
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I wouldn't be surprised if Bud continues to defy, and becomes a cat 4 overnight. Those innermost bands are tightly wound at this hour. Nice compact little hurricanes like this can spin up quite remarkably, and defy forecasts, I'm sure you already know.
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cieldumort
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AODT now up to 6.0
Niiiiiiiiice eye temp differential
Date : 13 JUL 2006 Time : 063000 UTC
Lat : 17:12:27 N Lon : 119:53:45 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 953.4mb/115.0kt
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +5.4mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km
6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.0 6.1 6.1
Center Temp : +1.2C Cloud Region Temp : -61.2C
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Margie
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Morning...looking at the sat loops from overnight, saw Bud peaked at Cat 4! Looks like it has crossed past 26C now, comparing to SST maps, and cloud tops have continued to warm, but nice larger clear eye, smaller, very symmetric, stable structure, windfield continues to pull in. What a very striking petite hurricane.
And it looks like Carlotta has become a small hurricane this morning, as well.
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From this morning's discussion on Bud:
BUD'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS BUT THE EYE STILL REMAINS DISTINCT IN THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES...BUD SHOULD BEGIN A QUICK DECLINE SINCE IT IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C SSTS
Edited by Margie (Thu Jul 13 2006 11:58 AM)
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nl
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im curious! could this happen to us on the east coast or the gulf. what if two twin hurricanes were beside each other one was a 4 and the other was just born. the first one hits and really does damage and then the second one becomes a 4 or worse and hits. is that possible? im just curious. because if that happen we are all screwed! because if its in the gulf there goes the gas prices. just wondering thanks! and everybody keep up the good work i have a feeling the atl and gulf is getting jealous of the pacific ocean and will show it soon.
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cieldumort
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Quote:
im curious! could this happen to us on the east coast or the gulf. what if two twin hurricanes were beside each other one was a 4 and the other was just born. the first one hits and really does damage and then the second one becomes a 4 or worse and hits. is that possible? im just curious. because if that happen we are all screwed! because if its in the gulf there goes the gas prices. just wondering thanks! and everybody keep up the good work i have a feeling the atl and gulf is getting jealous of the pacific ocean and will show it soon.
"Twin" hurricanes are nothing unique, although you are more likely to see that kind of situation in the Pacific and central Atlantic than in the Gulf or right along the east coast. The odds of two back-to-back major hurricanes becomes increasingly unlikely, however, as the first often tends to cause upwelling of the cooler waters, and, as in the case with Bud, they can create unfavorable shear for the other tropical cyclone within too close of a proximity.
In other situations a larger, more powerful hurricane can also simply eat a smaller, less virorous one. Just last year we saw this with essentially digesting Alpha, for example.
Net-net, the odds of a a back-to-back strike in the same general location of two major hurricanes are very low, IMHO.
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cieldumort
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I stayed up way too late to watch Bud - very impressive little storm - good thing he stayed well out to sea.
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