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Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
Azores
      #70134 - Tue Aug 15 2006 06:47 PM

If I was a betting man, I'm not, and wouldn't place a inappropriate bet, I would expect the Gulf "BLOB" to develop, rather quickly. Based on what I think I might of learned from different sites, without going into detail, cause I probably got it all wrong, I think a serious storm will head initially west, then over the next couple days head sw, and on or about three days from now make a loop and head towards the sw and end up on the western shores of Florida in about 6 to 7 days from now. Further, I do not see much happening with the other system in the western Atlantic; i think that missed it's chance for development.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
GOM Blob [Re: SebastianLou]
      #70135 - Tue Aug 15 2006 06:52 PM

Quote:

cause I probably got it all wrong, I think a serious storm will head initially west, then over the next couple days head sw, and on or about three days from now make a loop and head towards the sw and end up on the western shores of Florida in about 6 to 7 days from now. Further, I do not see much happening with




The cluster is already well west of Florida. How is it going to continue moving west and southwest and end up on the western shores of Florida in a week?

Based upon the current satellite image, I don't think development is likely in the near term. IF it were to develop, I'd expect it to pretty much sit where it is until the front come down and picks it up. Final destination, probably east of New Orleans to somewhere around the Big Bend area. If the front doesn't pick it up, it might just move west into Texas, or dissipate (most likely I think).

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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madmumbler
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 324
Loc: SWFL
Re: GOM Blob [Re: Hugh]
      #70136 - Tue Aug 15 2006 06:55 PM

Quote:

Quote:

about three days from now make a loop and head towards the sw and end up on the western shores of Florida in about 6 to 7 days from now.




The cluster is already well west of Florida. How is it going to continue moving west and southwest and end up on the western shores of Florida in a week?





I'm glad YOU grabbed that one. I was sitting there thinking HUH??

Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC just did the 6:50pm (eastern) Tropical Update and didn't seem to be really worried about it.

--------------------
Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

Edited by madmumbler (Tue Aug 15 2006 06:55 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: GOM Blob [Re: madmumbler]
      #70137 - Tue Aug 15 2006 07:18 PM

Quote:


Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC just did the 6:50pm (eastern) Tropical Update and didn't seem to be really worried about it.




These things can spin up in a hurry - and down just as quickly - so time will tell. I didn't even know it was there until two hours ago, and it seems to be dying down already. If it were to maintain itself for more than a few hours, it might have a shot, but Dr. Lyons is more than likely correct.

In truth, I'm surprised the TWO mentioned any possibility of development with it.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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SebastianLou
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 36
Loc: Florida
Re: GOM Blob [Re: Hugh]
      #70138 - Tue Aug 15 2006 07:20 PM

Like I stated, I probably got it wrong. I meant it would basically do a big loop! Hope not! Sorry I got to wordy with that post.

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: GOM Blob [Re: SebastianLou]
      #70139 - Tue Aug 15 2006 07:27 PM

there is no reason that thing would do anything except take a general westward heading. unless sebastianlou has a hurricane tractor beam in his back yard. climatologically speaking this time of year florida doesn't get hit from that direction unless you've got a deep late summer trough digging in over the mississippi valley. they're stuck under a big hot ridge over there, so no dice.
the initial burst cooled and secondaries are going off in a ring on the western semicircle. some additional cells fired on the eastern side, too. all it is right now is a convective burst near a wind-shift.
the thing in the western atlantic... again, nice circulation at the low levels, nice upper air profile... no convection, really. it hasn't really changed all day. until it starts blowing deep convection, it's a can of corn.
HF 2327z15august


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2017
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: GOM Blob [Re: madmumbler]
      #70141 - Tue Aug 15 2006 07:43 PM

Interesting, "63L"

I always appreciate Dr. Lyons' take on everything tropical and ocean-related, as well. It seems to me that he does give it some consideration - it *is* a tropical low, after-all - and, storms have fired for close to 9 hours, so far -

If they persist overnight...and especially if we see another convective burst overnight, then I think those of us in Texas should start paying very close attention, IMHO.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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yomelmer
Unregistered




Re: GOM Blob [Re: cieldumort]
      #70142 - Tue Aug 15 2006 07:49 PM

thing are slow when you wishcast acloud jn the gulf

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: GOM Blob [Re: cieldumort]
      #70143 - Tue Aug 15 2006 08:00 PM

Quote:

I always appreciate Dr. Lyons' take on everything tropical and ocean-related, as well. It seems to me that he does give it some consideration - it *is* a tropical low, after-all - and, storms have fired for close to 9 hours, so far -





It's not even a low, let alone a tropical low, at this point. It's a mass of clouds. Nine hours is not long enough to determine anything.

Interesting numbering by NRL. Why didn't they call it 95L?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2017
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: GOM Blob [Re: Hugh]
      #70145 - Tue Aug 15 2006 08:19 PM

I don't suppose you would like to explain to me what your definition of a Low is, then? And then, tropical low?

For whatever it's worth, storms have been firing up along this side of the trof for well over a day now, but we saw a deep burst of deep convection this afternoon. BTW - low level clouds have been rolling into the center of this cluster from multiple directions all afternoon.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: GOM Blob [Re: cieldumort]
      #70147 - Tue Aug 15 2006 08:23 PM

Quote:

I don't suppose you would like to explain to me what your definition of a Low is, then? And then, tropical low?
For whatever it's worth, storms have been firing up along this side of the trof for well over a day now, but we saw a deep burst of deep convection this afternoon. BTW - low level clouds have been rolling into the center of this cluster from multiple directions all afternoon.




A low is, well, an area of pressure that is less than the surrounding area, so in that sense, it probably is a low, but I haven't seen pressure readings. But there is no hint of a circulation at any level, which would be needed for it to be a cyclone. Or if there is, it's not very strong.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: GOM Blob [Re: Hugh]
      #70149 - Tue Aug 15 2006 09:12 PM

It was a convective flareup along the tail end of a weak surface trough. NRL has a test Invest on it (63L, or at least they did earlier today) if you want to see a satellite loop.
ED


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2017
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: GOM Blob [Re: Hugh]
      #70150 - Tue Aug 15 2006 09:24 PM

Well, Hugh, perhaps I am not as great a met as you are.

However, NHC, Dr. Lyons, Dr. Jeff Masters, among other mets and agencies, have all analyzed this feature as a Low - with potential to TC within 72 hours, I might add.

So, I'll assume you skipped that class, and listen to the others, thank you.

Let's chill some and take a break. shall we...

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)

Edited by Storm Cooper (Tue Aug 15 2006 09:27 PM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: GOM Blob [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #70151 - Tue Aug 15 2006 09:25 PM

I looked at the possiblity of something forming out of this yesterday but I was glued to other areas. I still think this can develop some and I'll keep an eye on it until...




--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: GOM Blob [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #70153 - Tue Aug 15 2006 09:51 PM

Looks like we have a new invest, 95L... I assume it is the BLOB in the GOM. No images yet, but a link on the index at NRL.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Just A Reminder [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #70154 - Tue Aug 15 2006 09:57 PM

While this Forum is not as strictly moderated as some of the others, there are some general site rules that still apply here. See the leadoff post in 'The Tropics Today' Forum for guidance. Having different points of view about the weather is fine, but having different points of view about each other is not what this site is all about. Thanks for your cooperation.
ED


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
95L [Re: Hugh]
      #70156 - Tue Aug 15 2006 10:32 PM

Hey everyone! I posted a link to the NRL site on this new invest on the main page. You are more than welcome to discuss it there; just keep in mind no "wishcasting" and/or personal attacks on others. Of course, I know that won't be a problem.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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