weathernet
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Lois,
I respect your opinion, however must differ wholehardedly regarding your take on the Canadian Model. Polar opposite from the 'ol ( sadly neutered for several years now ), strikes me as a tropical cyclone model on "crack" ( no offense to our Hudson Bay neighbors to the north ). To be fair, often times an Atlantic system WILL form and in fact picked up by the model. That said, quite common an occurance would be the other 79 tropical systems forecasted to form by simply only to end up as "ghost cyclones". For whatever the reason, I have found early season and end of season formation picked up with somewhat better accuracy by .
In object fairness, I must admit that has for several runs now been forecasting "the son of Dean" to form east of Florida, and then to slam into Central ( and now Southern Fla ). Up to today, there has been only slight hints of agreement from some of the other models, yet today a greater admission by some other models of at least a significant inverted trough approaching from the SE. Of course on satellite, one cannot deny that what appears to be 14 3/4 vorticity points all contained in one massive high amplitude wave, is in fact approaching 60W with some serious 29C octane fuel dead ahead. Even the European is "hinting" at something around days 6-10 near Fla.
As a fellow "model monger", I too check the each run. I am looking for consistancy of runs, followed by some consensus by the other models, especially the UK and/or European. has started to drop what it was detecting as a developing system east of Trinidad ( and there is a legitimate vort. here too ). Given the outflow shear from Dean, it would appear reasonable that something "could" form in the more convective area farther to the north where is forecasting. Guess a few days to come will prove whether or not this "outlier" model was on to something or not. My guess would be to lean conservatively towards a strong wave to approach Florida in the 4-7 days to come, perhaps with some weak 1010mb spin-up towards the end of the cycle. Now that i've erred on the side of "blah", watch the 0Z runs tonight have four major models bringing the "son of Dean" upon Florida's doorstep!
Andy
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Radar is notoriously unreliable in terms of detecting motion of hurrixcanes, but having said that, it does appear that Dean's eye is paralleling the southern coast of Jamaica, moving a bit north of west.
Maybe it's just me, but the ULL appears to have slowed down, too.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Loc: Manchester, NH
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Quote:
Lois,
I respect your opinion, however must differ wholehardedly regarding your take on the Canadian Model. Polar opposite from the 'ol ( sadly neutered for several years now ), strikes me as a tropical cyclone model on "crack" ( no offense to our Hudson Bay neighbors to the north ). To be fair, often times an Atlantic system WILL form and in fact picked up by the model. That said, quite common an occurance would be the other 79 tropical systems forecasted to form by simply only to end up as "ghost cyclones". For whatever the reason, I have found early season and end of season formation picked up with somewhat better accuracy by .
In object fairness, I must admit that has for several runs now been forecasting "the son of Dean" to form east of Florida, and then to slam into Central ( and now Southern Fla ). Up to today, there has been only slight hints of agreement from some of the other models, yet today a greater admission by some other models of at least a significant inverted trough approaching from the SE. Of course on satellite, one cannot deny that what appears to be 14 3/4 vorticity points all contained in one massive high amplitude wave, is in fact approaching 60W with some serious 29C octane fuel dead ahead. Even the European is "hinting" at something around days 6-10 near Fla.
As a fellow "model monger", I too check the each run. I am looking for consistancy of runs, followed by some consensus by the other models, especially the UK and/or European. has started to drop what it was detecting as a developing system east of Trinidad ( and there is a legitimate vort. here too ). Given the outflow shear from Dean, it would appear reasonable that something "could" form in the more convective area farther to the north where is forecasting. Guess a few days to come will prove whether or not this "outlier" model was on to something or not. My guess would be to lean conservatively towards a strong wave to approach Florida in the 4-7 days to come, perhaps with some weak 1010mb spin-up towards the end of the cycle. Now that i've erred on the side of "blah", watch the 0Z runs tonight have four major models bringing the "son of Dean" upon Florida's doorstep!
Andy
Here in Miami, the winds have been strong today. We have also had a greater increase of cooler weather. My question is, is this a part of Dean? I would doubt that, however the radar here does show some sort of storm that is forming and is going to hit us in 4-7 days. Would you mind if you could tell me a bit more about this "storm" that you can see on the radar or ? What do you see happening? We do have some strange weather here going on right now. 
Another Question, when I am looking at the radar here, what is that wierd blue thing that extends from Miami to Ft Lauderdale Area and goes off to sea?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=amx&product=NCR&loop=yes
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
Edited by StrmTrckrMiami (Sun Aug 19 2007 07:35 PM)
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madmumbler
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Quote:
Another Question, when I am looking at the radar here, what is that wierd blue thing that extends from Miami to Ft Lauderdale Area and goes off to sea?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=amx&product=NCR&loop=yes
Looks like a radar blip to me. I've seen it before but don't know exactly what it's called or what exactly causes it. I know here on the west coast, "chaff" from military planes running exercises can interfere with radar (Robert Winkler on 2 has talked about it before, he's former military), but that's a different signature.
It's not anything to worry about, in other words.
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Thank you.
What is the storm that everyone here is calling "little dean" that is going to hit us in 4-7 days? Do you know anything of this? Is there radar on this?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
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weathernet
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April,
Well, I too am in S. Florida ( Broward Co. ). You are right in that the winds have certainly picked up quite a bit. In this case however, these winds are neither directly from Hurricane Dean, nor any "yet to verify storm". These winds, while not of Dean's circulation, certainly are being caused in part due to the tightening pressure gradient from higher surface pressures to our north, and Dean's lower pressure to the south. The combination of such a very fluid weather dynamic is simply a "squeeze play". Windy in part due to Dean, just not directly from Dean.
As for the blue line on radar, I did see that as well. This is a false return, and appears to merely be what I have always called a "radar sweep signal". These fast moving showers coming over Florida are ver shallow, most with tops under 15,000 feet. In order for local radar to pick up on these showers, the radar itself must be tilted much more towards the horizon. This would serve less a tool to measure the high tops of an afternoon Everglades severe storm with tops of around 50,000-60,000 feet. Doplar can better determine how severe a storm may be along with different level vorticities. When the radar is tilted as such, it then misses what might be many very shallow rain-showers such as what we are experiencing now.
I do not see any real evidence of any other storm forming at this time. Radar may only detect this if showing cyclonic turning ( which it is not ), and so far no other forming tropical cyclones in our neck of the world. Things could certainly change with time......
Andy
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Maryland
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It has not formed yet. There is discussion in the Tropical Weather Outlook, but the conditions are not yet favorable.
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qtpa2ts
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I have a few questions for whomever wishes to answer.
I live in Corpus Christi, Texas. Our pressure has been dropping. Is that signifigant to anything?
What are these other models on the link below that are shooting Dean up north?
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...&stormNum=3
The thing off to the ESE of Florida.. What is that and how would it effect Dean if at all? And also on this radar below.. If Erin is joining that ULL (or whatever it is doing on this radar,) what does that mean for the ULL and Dean?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
I apologize if this is the wrong forum to post these questions on. If it is please let me know the right direction to go and except my apology.
Thank you.
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StrmTrckrMiami
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Weathernet, thank you for your input. I shall keep in touch with you regarding this "storm" that we seem to have going over our heads right now, and the one to form.
RandomChaos, where can I find this discussion that the has? Do you have a possible link?
Thanks
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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On the , click the "Tropical Weather Outlook" link just above the active storms section.
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craigm
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Wthout knowing the author of the models pulling Dean North, you need to determine if they are statistical or numerical. Statistical models show you where Dean could go, on average, compared to other storms in the same vicinity as Dean historically. While numerical models use dynamic real time data I.E. ,NOGAPS, UKMET and the 'tropical suite' amongst others
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Sun Aug 19 2007 08:11 PM)
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
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Quote:
On the , click the "Tropical Weather Outlook" link just above the active storms section.
Could you please provide a link to this storm. I can not seem to find it on the website. Thank you
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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QT,
Took a look at the link you asked about showing potential future tracks for Dean. This link is to Accu-Weather, and while these tracks may contain more and less accurate tools to forecast, there is little detail here to differentiate, thus means nothing. Here is one link from . Click on the link and then hit the "forward" button to start the loop. The superensemble is a fairly new model and often fairly accurate. Others I would consider would include , , UK, and EURO. Here is the link: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.html
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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Whoa. Weather Underground is reporting 173mph winds in Kingston, Jamaica.
http://english.wunderground.com/global/stations/78397.html
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danielw
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The weird blue thing is associated with sunrise and sunset. Apparently the solar radiation bounces the radar signal back at a frequency similar to light rain.
You should see the same blue line on nearly every radr as the sun rises or sets in that particular area.
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Allison
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Loc: Laredo, Texas
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Quote:
Quote:
On the , click the "Tropical Weather Outlook" link just above the active storms section.
Could you please provide a link to this storm. I can not seem to find it on the website. Thank you
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
...or just click the link on the left-hand side of the page. 
Regarding Dean, in case it hasn't been mentioned already, Brownsville, TX has a voluntary evacuation order in place: Brownsville Herald
Also, if you're so inclined, you can review the Texas Department of Emergency Management current situational report here: ftp://ftp.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/sitrep/Hurricane%20Dean%20SITREP%207%20081907.pdf
Texas is taking no chances.... 
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Allison
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Storm Hunter
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hmmm... just read the 5:30
I posted earlier that closest sat pic i had of the low to the SE of Barbados.... But i am a little confused in the wording of the text... This low seems to be what some models are showing to swing through the NE part of the islands into the atlantic... and the blows it up too a system off of Florida... which i not quite sure about that yet... will have to see what the 00Z runs bring.
"THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE
LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Does anyone understand what that line means?
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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danielw
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Quote:
Whoa. Weather Underground is reporting 173mph winds in Kingston, Jamaica.
http://english.wunderground.com/global/stations/78397.html
I checked that observation against the ADDS. The 173mph is estimated... as most , if not all wind sensors fail before 150mph. One of the possible exceptions being a hot wire anemometer.
Place MKJP in the blank and click the translated version.
http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/metars/
MKJP 200000Z E11099OO150KT 0KM BKN008 SCT010CB OVC080 25/24 Q1001
SACA31 KWBC 192100 RRA
MTRKJP
METAR MKJP 192100Z 14070KT 1000 BKN010 SCT016 OVC080 XX/XX Q0992
000
SACA31 KWBC 192000 RRD
MTRKJP
METAR MKJP 192000Z 09013KT 6000 BKN018 SCT020CB OVC100 27/21 Q0995
The bold E is the eastimated observation.
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BillD
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I interpret that to mean that the showers are several hundred miles to the North of the low which is SE of Barbados.
Bill
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qtpa2ts
Registered User
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Post deleted.
Use your PM feature for questions such as this.
Edited by Storm Cooper (Sun Aug 19 2007 08:35 PM)
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