nc_tropical_wx79
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I know this doesn't have anything to do with the center being exposed but w/ 95L lost/decrease in convection have to do with it making the transition from low attached to a front to a tropical low? Lows that transition from cold to warm core as they do change do they loose convection and refire it again once they become warm core and feed off of the ocean water? (sorry hope my question is understandable and not wordy or confusing).
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W.D. Duncan
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Clark
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Quote:
I know this doesn't have anything to do with the center being exposed but w/ 95L lost/decrease in convection have to do with it making the transition from low attached to a front to a tropical low? Lows that transition from cold to warm core as they do change do they loose convection and refire it again once they become warm core and feed off of the ocean water? (sorry hope my question is understandable and not wordy or confusing).
Nah, and in fact it is usually the persistence of convection that signifies a system undergoing transition to a warm-core entity; it suggests that the ingredients are in place for a tropical system to survive and helps build the mechanisms by which oceanic warmth can be carried to the upper levels.
Sometimes you'll see tropical disturbances in the deep tropics build convection, have it die out, and then build it again and develop -- but it's somewhat different than what we're looking at here (even though it does help erode the very weak cold core believed to be associated with tropical waves) as it relates more to the development of a vortex than the transition of a pre-existing vortex.
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danielw
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Here's is a near perfect sat shot of what WX79 is mentioning above... I think.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/img/2007241_2045vis.jpg
Almost appears to have a sheared mid to upper level circulation.
Surface circ. is near 30N/ 76W and mid level circ center appears to be near 30N/ 73W or about 150 miles to the east of the surface center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/jsl-l.jpg
The red area on the JSL enhancement is normally associated with deeper convection.. and I've found that the 'red' indicates the most likely area for lightning in tropical systems.
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madmumbler
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I wake up and there's FOUR invests on the site????
It looks like 95L and 96L are both the Atlantic system off of SC, or are those two separate systems they're focusing on??
Can one of the mets please explain this?
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Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.
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Hugh
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Quote:
I wake up and there's FOUR invests on the site????
It looks like 95L and 96L are both the Atlantic system off of SC, or are those two separate systems they're focusing on??
Can one of the mets please explain this?
I'm not a met but I heard the explanation on CNN 
The system off of the southeast Atlantic coast actually *is* two distinct low pressure areas, and thus, two invests would be warranted. They won't BOTH develop (knock on wood), and I would *think* the fact that a second low has developed (the northernmost low developed overnight, according to the 's ), that would indicate that the first low is less likely to develop.
Bay of Campeche system is too close to land, and the Atlantic fish-swimming system is not looking very impressive this morning, to me.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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doug
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A quick and brief look this morning: it looks as if 94L is organizing a bit more, as predicted. My guess is this is an important day for this system as it seems to be less influenced by the SAL and is developing a low latitude feeder system for energy..Of the current systems of interest my guess is this one will be classified first.
I don't have a real good feel for the two headed system(s) in the ATL which are transitioning a bit. They may devlop seperately, if I can differ from the previous post...I think the northern most of the two is moving out NE but the second is still drifting south and the distances will only slowly increase. I don't see the northern one being purely tropical, but the second one if it goes would more likely be a warm core, IMHO.
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doug
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danielw
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Looks like you all have the morning wrap on the three systems.
94L is looking much better to me than 12 hours ago. Especially with the beginnings of the high thin cirrus outflow fingers on the western semicircle. 94L still lacking/ slacking in the eastern semicircle.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/img/2007242_1245vis.jpg
95L appears to have consolidated over the lower level circulation that was visible late yesterday. However the convection is on the low side. (Sat shot is just north of the present center...as it appears that SSD has not moved the shot to follow the storm)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/img/2007242_1245vis.jpg
96L-the most northern system. Has the better satellite signature of the three systems. Moderate or higher convection colocated near the center of circulation. Both a poleward and equatorward outflow channel... if you will. Actually had a decent signature late yesterday. Better than 95L off of Florida.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/img/2007242_1215vis.jpg
97L System in BOC. Looks like the area that Dean clobbered a few weeks ago is going to get some more rainfall. That's my take on the 3 or 4, depending on what you are counting, systems.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/img/2007242_1245vis.jpg
The numbers here may differ frfom the or MY sites. As I'm using the SSD satellite page for numbering.
See attachment for latest visible of 95L and 96L.
Edited by danielw (Thu Aug 30 2007 01:39 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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well, someone threw the switch on!!! Out of our invest list right now, 96L looks to be the most impressive one. It has a small window to be become a TD, before the front grabs it and takes it off to the NE. The low to the south of it... 95L can be seen on vis sats.... drifting to the SW... as for 97L... well you can tell the BOC still has warm waters... but running out of time. 94L... i think it getting caught up more into the westerlies now... so its going to be interesting... warm waters ahead.
**Notice (Surface Map) and are putting more stock into 94L now.. TCPOD-07-098 puts a few flights out there.**
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 30 2007 03:50 PM)
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cieldumort
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96L to the ne of 95L (talking about the two Gulf Stream lows for those wanting reference) has, IMHO, had the upper-hand for the better part of the last 24 hours, of the two, and I was admittedly surprised that there was not a separate invest tag on it - so kudos, I suppose. Clearly, its presence so close to 95L has been hampering 95s development. This is probably a situation not terribly unlike the unnamed tropical storm of 2006 and Beryl, with the exception that 95L continues to drift S-SE, and has been weakening.
For all practical purposes 96L is almost there, already. Recent scatterometer images strongly suggest that the surface low is now just about nuzzled back under its deeper convection. 95L is probably not going to be too far behind, but only provided it can begin taking up the favorable conditions 96L has somewhat robbed from it, so far.
94L clearly is freeing itself from the tight grips of all of that SAL which has been inhibiting development, and now has a fairly well-defined convective coc. Probably not fully back down to the surface, as it degenerated into an open wave at the surface yesterday, after having had a surface low prior days.
97L in the BOC is running out of time (ocean) unless it can begin taking a more northwesterly course, again, but this seems to have ended in much the same way (interestingly) that it did so for Dean ... generally WNW and then about due west until landfall. Unless it slows down a great deal, stalls, or begins moving NW, the best it can probably achieve is minimal TS, and that might be generous. Regardless, it is guaranteed to be a prolific rain-maker... and apparently over more yet more areas that simply do not need any more prolific rains.
In summation, given current trends, I wouldn't be surprised to see a issued today for 94L & 96L, and to lesser chances 97L & 95L. As for bugging mainland U.S., I think we should be watching 94L & 95L the most. 96 will likely continue on its merry way out to sea, and 97 is hugging old Mexico.
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doug
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I agree with the last post...96L has the best signature now. 94L is coming along but is still hampered by its environment...if it were more centrally located in the envelope of moisture that is behind it ,it would be a storm by now...it is trying to grab that and hence some convection SE of the LLC is growing.
the other two: 95 L is at best a sharp inverted V wave that is now being pushed east by the ridge exiting the SE coast . I don't see a closed low there and the western component is at the base of the trough to its west. In fact this is caught in that trough...I don' see this being a player.
97 is out of time as stated.
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doug
Edited by doug (Thu Aug 30 2007 04:15 PM)
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scottsvb
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Well looking at data and sat obs 94L has the best chance of any. It does have a LLC and winds are 25-30kt with higher gusts.. the shower activity is also close to the center. Dry air is inhibiting more development but if T-Storm activity picks up tonight...recon will go in tomorrow and find a Tropical Storm.. but lets see what tonight brings first. 50%
96L just doesnt have the mid-circulation and LLC together..plus its running into a front....I think it will be a Baroclincal low as the midlevel takes over and strengthens while the LLC merges with the front. So no development here. 20%
97L doesnt have a closed circulation and is running into MX before any development will take place 20%
95L weakening elongated trough and a weak LLC... 10%
Pretty much high pressures and dry air continues this year. Probably be around labor day before we get a good storm to come off Africa....94L has the only near term shot.
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doug
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95L is no longer a feature of interest apparently...somebody must be reading all the posts here, I guess?
94L is fighting to get organized...I see some persistent convection in four distinct locations east and Se of the LLC, and some now on the WSW section. BUT there is evidence of shear across the system as seen by blowoff SW -NE, and some low level type outflow boundaries consistent with interaction with dry air,,,continued development will be a struggle.
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doug
Edited by doug (Thu Aug 30 2007 08:08 PM)
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danielw
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Amazing consensus with the last few posts.
There is normally a slight difference of opinion among posters. But I can't recall seeing this many post in agreement. For the most part.
Must be the storm heading and distance away from ! 
94L has a long way to go. It has consolidated most of the convection near the center. But the outer periphery is still irregular. (using rgb and jsl only)
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mar32366
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94L is becomming better organized this evening as satellite images showing an increase in thunderstorms to the south and east of what looks like a center of low pressure. Upper level winds have dropped to 5-10 knots and actually look to lighten further over the next 48 hours. Water temperatures are at 83-85 degrees and temp. should incease as it gets into the carribean. There is still dry air to its north though this should only hold development down over the next 24 hours as water vapor is showing a slight increase in moisture over the system. 48 hours ago I felt it was a 4 now have increased to a 5-6 range. I would like to see tommorow mournings satellite before I increase higher. Models are still mixed as development goes but the track seems to be a west to w-nw for the next 72 hours. I feel the models hold a ridge to its north a bit to strong as an old frontal boundary and a new front moves off the east coast this weekend. I'm looking for a more w-nw as it enters the carribean and a nw early next week before the ridge rebuilds due to a trough over the middle of the US. Turning it back to w-nw or west in time. So yes I feel if this system developes its a western carribean and gulf storm. Too early to even go this far but its a calculated guess. Just a note if anything does develope off the coast of Florida to NC then this may change the track of 94L. Something to watch as I believe next week will see a increase in activity across the atlantic so the quiet before the storm as they say.
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allan
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94L is one interesting system.. I'm not in too much dissagreement on the track but looking at the troughing situation, this should likely move more into the GOM in my opinion. Although.. what i'm wondering is why models are having such a hard time on the strength? 94L should be a TD easily either late tonight or in the morning as it continues to do it's thing tonight.
On to our next area, poses little threat but should stay away from the USA. 96L, very subtropical looking to me, I got to dissagree with the "baronic low" that one person was mentioning, however, it still may not be named, we'll see what happens with it tonight, if it doesn't get classified now, it could be classified at post analysis with our last 96L lol. The track is simple, not a fish, but a canadian storm.. wouldn't be surprised if it affected Maine.
97L may run out of time to develop in my opinion, should be in Mexico sometime at noon tommorrow as either an invest or maybe just MAYBE a TD.
(dubbed) 95L by , can't say no or yes on development, the UKMET still shows a stalling low near the Florida coastline, but as a friend of mine told me earlier, I give it less than a zero chance.
Overall, it's a really good that we will be tracking a classified system! 
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Allan Reed - 18,9,5
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HanKFranK
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the can't-quite-develop theme continues.. with the yucatan system almost making it, but hugging the coastline, the stuff off the east coast remaining sheared, and good ol' 94L trucking along half made and without a care. overall it's been an unusually quiet august for a la nina year. yeah, i'm sure dean with it's powerhouse run added a ton of NTC activity, but aside from that august has only managed a weak trickle. the atlantic is overall running a good bit warmer than normal... strange that atmospheric conditions haven't allowed more action to take place. we're getting tight on the statistical peak of the season, so the puttering tropical cyclone activity is not likely to continue.
disturbed weather should hang near the east coast/southeastern u.s. and keep trying to spawn a system. it hasn't succeeded yet, but with the sort of blocky, persistent weakness hanging off the eastern seaboard it becomes a likelihood over time. 94L has real potential to cause trouble if it can develop, but most of the models continue to show a lack of support, and if it does develop it will be tracking more or less along dean's wake. the monster ridge that pushed dean hard west isn't in place, so even though the models show a weak storm tracking westward, a stronger storm could still be a nuisance to folks further north.
interesting westpac typhoon, with a northeastward moving storm banking left in the mid-latitudes under a strong ridge and forecast to recurve hard near eastern japan. bad storm if that verifies. the atlantic reflection would be a jeanne-type system. the atlantic might try to mirror that sort of pattern later on, though getting a storm to coincide with such a thing has long odds.
HF 0115z31august
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cieldumort
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TCFA is up on 96L now. Probably not too long for 94L now, either. While 96 is almost assuredly going to be nothing more than a Nova Scotia and/or out-to-sea bugger for shipping interests, 94 shows a lot of promise for those of us this side of Atlantic Standard Time.
If you ask me, the real story of the past 72 hours has really been the seemingly orchestrated chorus of increased activity from the west pac all the way out to the central Atlantic. Not catching much attention in the presses, but even waaaay north in the central Pacific an arguably "there" tropical cyclone formed near 30N, and an arguably "there" subtropical cyclone/gale came into form waaaay north up around 43N in the central Atlantic. Again, the common theme here has been a sudden and seemingly orchestrated pop in the activity all across the seaboards. While 92C in the north central Pacific and the subtropical gale in the north central Atlantic may, if they're lucky, garnish a footnote at the bottom of some annual 2007 summary, clearly WestPac Fitow, East Pac TD11 and probably TC-to-be 94L will use up much more ink than that.
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danielw
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94L, 96L and 97L are now up on the Site listed above.
NRLMY for 96L and others
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charlottefl
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Looks like we're on track for a season a little above average. In 2004 we were upto at this point, making landfall Labor Day Weekend.
And wiith 94L looking like it has a good chance at a future we're looking at similiar #'s to 2004, at least upto this point. One thing that strikes me
kinda odd though it the difficulty storms have had in organizing the past 2 years. In 2004, and 2005 conditions seemed perfect for these systems
to pull together quickly and there has been a remarkable difference the last 2 years, and i'm just wondering what is having that effect.
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CoconutCandy
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Well, it certainly is beginning to look like the Hurricane Hunters will find a closed off low level center, with steadily lowering surface pressures. This one has TD and Storm written all over it.
It seems likely, IMHO, that there is no turning back now. While you've all slept overnight, I've been watching this little invest mushroom into something more than just a 'little invest'. (Remember, I am 6 hours behind Florida time)
Judging from the greatly increased aerial coverage and the intensity of convection, I'd hazard that surface pressures are beginning to lower. This is also evidenced by carefully observing the low-level inflow patterns. One can see a nicely defined cyclonic circulation, with long cumulus streets spiraling inward in all quadrants, and, where convection had been 'lacking/slacking' earlier in the E semi-circle previously, there are now several, short banding features blossoming out indicating a steady increase in organization, when all the convection works together to lower surface pressures, which in turn steadily increases the winds.
But of course, you all know this already. It's just always interesting, from a weather hobbyist perspective, to see it happening right before your eyes, time and again. Let's hear it for animated time-lapse satellite loops! 
Additionally, there is also developing a central dense overcast -like feature over the inner core convection, which usually bids well for an intensification surge.
Of all the current invests floating around, I'd place my bets, as has almost everyone it seems, on 94L to become TS Felix in the not-too-distant future. The has been out for some time now, the thermodynamic environment is becoming increasingly favorable and the 'negative' factors seem to be dwindling.
It'll be interesting to see what the Recon mission will reveal with regard to thermodynamic structure and wind fields.
And it'll be interesting, too, to see what becomes of the 'alleged' FAMCG (Far Atlantic Monsoon Cyclonic Gyre  ), currently cycling within a large area SW of the Cape Verde, in the coming days and possibly weeks as it seems that the gyre might be setting up shop there for awhile.
The latest tropical weather discussion (2am EDT, as I write) indicates " ...BROAD ELONGATED LOW / MID LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERING THE AREA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 25W-36W WITH SEVERAL POSSIBLE ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.", which would be entirely consistent with the behavior of a monsoon cyclonic gyre, as discussed in the "Hurricane Ask/Tell" Forum. Pretty interesting stuff. Well worth a look.
Hold onto your hats and batten down the hatches, as it appears that "Ferocious Felix" will be the start to a quick succession of storms in the coming weeks, in a still yet predicted 'above average' total number of storms for the season. 
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