MikeC
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8:00AM EDT 6 September Update
Shear, the main thing preventing 99L from developing, will continue today, the upper level low that never backed off as predicted continues to tear up 99L, which looks more like a front than a tropical disturbance at the moment.
It still has a low level circulation, however, and if it manages to survive the windshear it then could develop, and meander a bit. Chances of it ever doing so are even lower than yesterday, however. It still may slide westward a bit, but it seems the models are just not handling this system very well, and it's not expected to amount to much, if anything.
Looking beyond 99L, there is not much else going on. So far this season has been lulls sprinkled with weak systems and two due west monster category 5 Caribbean Hurricanes. We still have the rest of September and October to get through, but so far the US has not had anything to deal with other than the flooding assisted by the weaker systems in Texas.
Chances for Tropical Development of Disturbance off Southeast Coast (99L) In Next 2 days
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
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11:05PM EDT 5 September Update
99L is still being sheared, and the 33% chance for development mentioned earlier still holds. It's looking more likely that it will not affect the mainland. If the circulation center survives the night, and the shear relaxes the chances for development go up. But it appears now that even through most of tomorrow, that won't be the case.
4:40PM EDT 5 September Update
Aircraft recon has flown into the disturbance off the coast (99L) and has found a circulation and released a vortex message with 33 knot flight level winds and a pressure of 1005mb.
Suggesting that a tropical or subtropical depression may be forming or has formed off the southeast. Advisories may begin as early as 5PM, but the system remains highly sheared this afternoon with the center of circulation mostly exposed so it's more likely tomorrow before it will form.
Models currently are very unreliable with this system, but if it forms, along with the new data from recon. We should have a slightly better picture with later model runs. However, slowly moving storms are usually very difficult to forecast and folks along the southeast would be advised to watch to see what happens with this system.
That said, it is still most likely that it will head out to sea.
Original Update
Hurricane Felix, now a depression, is spinning itself out over the mountains of Central America, bringing massive amount of rainfall and flooding to the area after making landfall yesterday.
Much closer to home, the disturbance off the east coast of Florida (99L) is still a bit of a wildcard. There are signs of it both being a tropical system and subtropical system (a hybrid low), the center itself seems to be exposed, and the shear is still high in so there isn't too much chance for development today, but it may later if convection occurs more around the center after the shear lets up.
Only could it then become a tropical or subtropical system. There is an off chance the center may reform under the convection too, and if that happens it will likely be more subtropical.
Chances for Tropical Development of Disturbance off Southeast Coast (99L) In Next 2 days
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*-------------]
The lack of any real steering currents in the area makes predicting the track hard, it could go anywhere from staying offshore and out to sea to affecting the Carolinas. Right now it's about a 50/50 split on it making landfall or not. More likely would be in the Carolinas. (GFDL and models tends toward South Carolina, while some of the others say North Carolina, yet more take it out to sea) If this happened it would be around the weekend. It's equally as likely (maybe even more likely) that it will move out to sea.
Since this hasn't developed yet it's just worth watching.
Where do you think this system will go? Will it develop? Let us know here in the forecast lounge.
More to come later...
Radar Loops
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nc_tropical_wx79
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looks like 99L has multiple vortices which is a sign of disorganization right? Just my opinion but it's satrting to look like the flight into 99l may not happen. On your scale from 1-10 what chance do you give 99L of becoming a TC?
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W.D. Duncan
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Ed in Va
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It's still fighting a lot of shear, which is supposed to relax. I don't think we'll know its fate until that happens.
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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nc_tropical_wx79
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Dr. Masters has it as a subtropical depression already (in his blog) could it be subtropical and making the transition slowly because of the high shear? I've heard my local Met say he wouldn't be surprised if a new LLC forms under the convection and 99l starts to really take shape.
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W.D. Duncan
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invest1
Unregistered
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It appears that on the vis sat loop that 99L is being sheared with winds from the sw. Does anyone see this happening because with the center exposed, the cloud masses looks to be blowing off the tops to the ne while the center itself is moving slowly due e. IMO if the shear does not slacken soon this system may go the way of 98L. Also have noticed the models are bouncing all over the place and I realize that it is not classified as of yet so models are not handling it well at this time, but what I'm still seeing is a lot of shear. Can anyone strighten me out!
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LoisCane
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Well, honestly the models are beginning to converge on an east coast hit so I believe the will have to take it a little more seriously than they might otherwise.. as all I see is a nice low level swirl/center on visible that is too far east I think to make that dip down under the high and get pushed back towards land.
Unless ...the storm forms further south.. or moves further south.
But, with that many models turning back to the west.. you have to figure they see something we don't.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200799_model.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Tampa
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I will say 2 things regarding intensity and track:
1. For intensity, the convection is very close to the LLC, so I believe
that once shear lessens, as the latest says that conditions will become
more favorable, rapid strengthening is likely with a building ridge to the north.
Several models make this a hurricane and brings it to Category 2.
That is not impossible given the warmth of the gulfstream waters and the several
days this system has over the water.
2. As for track, I do not see this going out to sea. As we have seen with
Felix and Dean, the early long-range models out 3-5 days tend to
underestimate the ridge. Therefore, I think the track and model
consensus should shift substantially to the left, increasing
the threat to the carolinas, and depending on the ridge, possibly
even georgia or florida. This early in the forecast, you cannot rule
these areas out.
Convection as certainly been impressive, and it is likely to consolidate
closer and closer to the low level circulation as shear lessens.
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Steve H1
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I agree Tampa. This is a fairly strong vortex and once shear lessens, it should strengthen in short order (if shear lessens). I also believe that its reached its furthest east position now, and should begin a more westerly movement during late afternoon or tonight. This will be fun to watch, since models have shifted a bit to the left (even the 12Z NAM) and may be a sign that the ridge will stay entrenched over the east coast longer than anticipated last night. The EC and have this as a SC or GA hit. They initialized it a bit further west, but that may be negated by the fact that its a bit further south, and may actually drift a bit south while making the turn westward. Hopefully, the SE will get some much needed rain out of this without too much wind. Cheers!!
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MikeC
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The positive factors for development I really didn't mention before are the fact that there is a rather strong low level circulation, and the T numbers actually support a tropical system now. But it still is incredibly sheared. Thankfully Recon will be out there soon enough to help make that determination.
The shearing, exposed center, and water vapor satellite loops show a huge negative for development, and that's why it's about 33%. Right now I don't think much of 99L. Tomorrow, however..
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Storm Hunter
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just an update on the aborted recon flight from the other day.
N42RF flew a 3D Doppler Winds experiment into Hurricane Felix. It left St. Croix, USVI at 04:00 PM AST, and it recovered at St. Croix, USVI at ??? ADT. Mission was aborted due to it encountering graupel and severe turbulence.
More to come.
As for 99L... looks to me its drifting to the ENE on vis sat this morning... the low level is exposed... Alot of shear.
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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doug
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My thoughts exactly as expressed in the other thread yesterday...the only change I see today is some convection on the NW which did not exist yesterday...that certainly is consistent with increasing development...the longer it hangs around... I'm still at 3 on the analog scale.
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doug
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teal61
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Was just looking at a vis loop of the remains of Felix . It appears that he has taken a turn to the NW. If you run the loop from the NOAA site with the wind overlay you can see the spin in the Caribbean just offshore Guatemala and just south of Belize. The wind barbs also seem to confirm this. Also went to the NASA site and did a "super" zoomed in loop of the same area and the weak circulation shows up pretty well.
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CDMOrlando
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP
DEVELOPING CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...
THE IS FURTHER TO THE S AND W THAN THE THRU MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AND IS AROUND 25 MB DEEPER AT THE SFC BY THE END OF DAY 2.
THE 00Z /12Z /UKMET GLOBAL ARE FASTER THAN THE TO
CARRY THE SYSTEM WWD...BUT THE SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED GIVEN
THAT ITS 12HR FORECAST SHOWED A POSITION WELL WEST OF WHAT WAS
OBSERVED AT 12Z...WHILE THE /UKMET INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM TOO
FAR W AS WELL. GIVEN THE POOR INITIALIZATIONS OF THE MODELS...DO
NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SOLUTION...
BUT IN COMPARISON TO THE REMAINING MODELS THE
APPEARS TOO WEAK WITH THE MID LVL RIDGE TO THE N OF THE SYSTEM AND
IS THEREFORE TOO SLOW TO MOVE THE SYSTEM WWD...WHILE ALLOWING THE
SYSTEM TO MOVE TOO FAR TO THE N. A MORE PROGRESSIVE/AMPLIFIED/SLY
SOLUTION THAN THE WOULD BETTER FIT THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NOT
READY TO BUY INTO A SOLUTION AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE GIVEN ITS
POOR FORECAST OR THE /UKMET GIVEN THEIR POOR INITIALIZATIONS.
NOT SURE A SYSTEM AS DEEP AS THE IS IN ORDER EITHER GIVEN ITS
TENDENCY TO OVER-AMPLIFY ANY SYSTEM OF A TROPICAL NATURE. THAT
SAID...THE CURRENT HPC/TPC THINKING IS FOR A TRACK FURTHER TO S
AND DEEPER THAN THE ...BUT NOT QUITE AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE
GLOBAL/UKMET/00Z .
THERE ARE ALSO ISSUES WITH THE STRENGTH/WRN EXTENT
OF THE MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC AND ERN/SERN .
TELECONNECTION-FAVORED UPSTREAM CONFIGURATION FAVORS A HEALTHY
SERN RIDGE CLOSER TO WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE /RECENT
MEANS/06Z-12Z . GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SERN COAST TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NWD ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THE 12Z HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WWD TOWARD THE
DOMINANT CLUSTER OF OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE.
FINAL MANUAL FCST http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day3nav.html
DEPICTS THE HPC/TPC COORDINATED TRACK FOR THIS FEATURE.
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LoisCane
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How come there is no discussion of the . Is that normal or just for this system?
I'm a little confused on that one.
Aren't the planes in the system by now? Where are they flying out of.. if anyone knows?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200799_model.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MikeC
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Quote:
How come there is no discussion of the . Is that normal or just for this system?
I'm a little confused on that one.
Aren't the planes in the system by now? Where are they flying out of.. if anyone knows?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200799_model.html
The aircraft are in there now, and they found some pretty good winds (around 33-34knots), but with it still attached to the front a bit, and the convection sheared off like it is, I doubt the will upgrade it to a depression tonight. Tomorrow, however, is a different story.
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craigm
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99L has a very impressive LLC. When the shear lets up the system should start building vertically. The dynamics can really be seen in this loop with bursts of convection above the coc being sheared to the NE
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-rgb.html
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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MikeC
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Recon release a vortex message, 1005mb, 33 knot flight level winds. It'll be a pure judgment call for the to upgrade or not at 5PM, although this leans more toward tropical rather than subtropical. If it were up to me I would not upgrade it right now.
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DJINFLA
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Here's what the Indian River County Emergency Office sent on its email weather update a few minutes ago:
"Hurricane recon aircraft investigating satellite investigation 99L this afternoon have found a well defined closed circulation and surface winds near tropical storm strength. It is likely that the National Hurricane Center will upgrade this system to either Tropical Depression Seven or Tropical Storm Gabrielle at 5:00 p.m. This afternoon’s computer guidance has had a more westerly trend for the projected path of this developing system. However, it appears that most of the models have not initialized the system in the correct location. Once the data from the hurricane hunters is ingested into the model runs, it will be interesting to see if the westerly trend continues. In any event, climatology would dictate a track to the north, but we will need to pay attention just in case. I will continue to monitor and advise as needed."
May it just pull a Kyle from a few seasons ago and meander around the Atlantic spinning up fish before it dies!
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nc_tropical_wx79
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Ummm DJINFL there was no upgrade at 5pm? Honestly didn't really expect one because looking at this invest I still say IMHO that dry air and shear will keep it just that 99L. Even with the trough forecast to move away and to it's north I still say too little too late and it's moved so far to the east I'm doubting it gets named/recognized and starting to doubt it's impact/landfall on the SE coast/US period. I'd give 99l on the scale a 1.5 maybe 2.
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W.D. Duncan
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Ed in Va
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99L looks very ragged tonight. I'm not sure it's going to survive. Does anyone have any specifics on when the shear is supposed to lessen?
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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