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#HurricaneBeryl recon finding the cyclone stronger again; likely Cat 4 on next NHC update.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 306 (Idalia) , Major: 306 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 306 (Idalia) Major: 306 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#12 4:00 pm EDT
12.4N 61.3W
Wind: 140MPH
Pres: 956mb
Moving:
Wnw at 20 mph
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ADV#4 4:00 pm EDT
20.2N 97.8W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 7 mph
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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell
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saluki
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 57
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Crazy, wacky CMC
      #79195 - Sun Oct 07 2007 10:54 AM

My questions are addressed to those with expertise in how the forecast models are formulated.

It appears the CMC once again is forecasting a major storm -- last night's run shows 94L blowing up, moving over Havana and poised to strike the southern tip of Florida in six days. I've now officially lost count of how many major hurricane landfalls this model has forecast this year.

So, I'm curious -- what is it in the CMC's methodology that leads to such aggressive forecasting? And, given how consistently prone the CMC is to overdevelopment, does this model have any credibility in the meteorological world?

The scenario laid out by the CMC for 94L certainly is plausible for early/mid-October, but there's a tendency to say, "Well, it's only the CMC."

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