Maitland, FL
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I'm not sure if it means anything, but a couple of the local weather stations are alluding to the disturbance in the Caribbean as something to watch in the coming days. If anything, hopefully it will bring us some rain since we are in need of some. Also, I'm hopeful that it will just be a disturbance and not an early, strong system that wants to start off the season with an ominous tone. 
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Storm Hunter
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East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 28 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
SURFACE LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TRPCL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 36-48 HRS
...AT 10N88W 1006 MB GETTING MORE LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION WHILE
SLOWLY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. LITTLE MOVEMENT AT THIS
TIME BUT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NE AS SECOND LOW PRES OVER
SW CARIBBEAN INTERACTS WITH IT. ASSOCIATED STRONG CONVECTION
AFFECTS S NICARAGUA AND MOST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING
WITH PLENTY OF WARM MOIST TRPCL AIR MASS INFLUX FROM THE SW.
WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT AND GUSTY WITHIN 150 NM S AND SE
QUADRANTS. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF MEXICO TO PANAMA WITHIN NEXT 48 HOURS.
INTERACTION BETWEEN BOTH LOW PRES CENTERS ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO
DEVELOPMENT FORECAST AND THEIR TRACKS...BUT PROXIMITY TO LAND
AREAS COULD CURTAIL SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER ONE FOR
THE TIME BEING. COMPOUNDING THE SCENARIO IS TRPCL WAVE ALONG
80W DISCUSSED BELOW WHICH IS LIKELY BOOST THE PROBABILITY OF
INTENSIFICATION AS MUCH AS TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF ANY FORECAST
Just what i was thinking and have been posting about... the question to me... i not sure where this second low will form on the caribbean side.... although it will dift and move to the NW... along the central american coast line. I have more tonight when i get a good look at today's data.
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scottsvb
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The whole area is a mess in the carribean. A upper trough of low pressure that came down a couple days ago pulled up the as a elongated trough from the EPAC to the WCAR.. on the sw side of the trough (in better upper air support from the trough hanging down over central america) a low pressure system formed and is been migrating underneath the trough. The trough though is now weakening and pulling out as a ridge builds in from the eastern carribean. The low pressure system over the EPAC near 10N and 86W will get pulled NNE and into central america. Another weaker low is situated off the east coast of Nicaragua near 12N and 81W. This low dont have the upper level enviroment due to the EPAC low proximaty. With the EPAC low moving inland on Thurs.. the weaker low off Nicaragua should get pulled into Honduars or Belieze by Friday. Now with that said a tropical wave of low pressure may develop near Jamaica as upper level winds calm down as 1 the upper trough is now out of the way and the EPAC low is now a trough over central america. This wave will have a chance to develop and move WNW towards the Yucitan and S Gulf.. There is nothing really to pull anything in the near term north to florida or anywhere in the gulf right now ...and besides anything after 3 days has a growing amount of error.
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dem05
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Not much to add here so far...Looks like everyone's posts today have covered everything pretty good.
One note that I will make, is that unless 90L does a quick U-turn, this is a system that has likely missed it's opportunity to become a tropical depression in the Pacific. Latest RAMSDIS Loops do indicate that 90L's primary center of circulation has crossed the coastline of Coasta Rica now. We shall have to see if this get's hung up on land, traverses Cantral America into the SW Caribbean, or becomes a "jumper" (Re-forms a new Low in the Caribbean)...As advertised, only time will tell. Either way, a very unfortunate flooding situation in Central America is evolving.
RAMSDIS Link to Visable Floater: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp#1-km%20Visible%20and%20Radar (NOTE: Click the link for 1km Visible and Radar)
Edited by dem05 (Wed May 28 2008 10:01 PM)
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cieldumort
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IMHO, at 2244UTC, for all practical intents and purposes Invest 90E, the first eastern Pacific Invest of the 2008 Pacific Hurricane Season, is quite arguably already a tropical depression, whether they give it the bump prior to or perhaps even post landfall, or not.
With the help from this SSMI composite color-enhanced image, you can see how the primary LLC center was still situated just offshore late this afternoon, IVO 10N 86.5W. Deep convective banding W, SW, S, SE, E & NE. Nice cyclone.
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HurricaneKid
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I was browsing the , and I decided to take another look at 90E on satellite:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/vis.jpg
I dont know about you guys, but it looks pretty well organized to me, and you could see the rotation centre very clearly now. Its moving so slow, and in the mountainous areas of Central America....I fear the worst  (prone to landslides etc.)
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dem05
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The center of 90E has slid back off shore of Costa Rica and into the Pacific Waters again. However, it is unlikely that the system will have enough time to develop into more than a tropical depression. Mort has posted a nice image. However, there are some optical illusions in his image and the potential surface center is likely much closer to the cost. Based on the the shortwave images and the RAMSDIS images, any potential surface circulation is probably around 10.0-10.5N and 86W. The system has moved somewhat to the NNW over the last few hours, which has definately given another chance at life as a tropical depression over the east Pacific. Time will tell if that trend continues. Either way, the tropics definately remain interesting in the East Pacific and SW Caribbean.
Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-ir2.html
EDIT: Almost forgot for the new visitors/new weather hobbiest, you may click on the LatLon radio button on top of this image to get a view of the coordinate grids
Edited by dem05 (Thu May 29 2008 12:42 AM)
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cieldumort
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I might disagree some with my good friend Dem, in that if there is much of an optical illusion, it appears to me that this is mostly the result of the cyclone's LLC center jumping around some, with the mlc a touch displaced. The very last frame suggests that the cyclone has skirted the coast with a northbound bias, and is now winding up even more.
Strong banding now enveloping the entire center. Latest AVN-enhanced image really illustrates this case.
Real-time
 .
Wish we had recon in and out of there.
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cieldumort
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Enter the 2008 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season.
Not a lot of room between our newly-upgraded TD and the coast, but there is probably enough time at the rate it is improving to TS within the next 12 hours... especially if it continues to move along just offshore.
The potential for flooding rain is very high.
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Hugh
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One-E certainly has had an interesting day, and I began to wonder if it would survive offshore long enough for to pull the trigger, particularly after reading the that issued an hour before they apparently did pull the triggger. The big question in my mind is what happens with what will become the remnant moisture. Does it get pulled into a low in the W. Caribbean, or does it fall apart over the high mountains? Common sense would say it falls apart quickly over land, but common sense does not always rule the day when it comes to tropical systems.
It's going to be a very long six months, folks.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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dem05
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Not a bad call there what so ever, Mort. He is correct, it looks like the first TD of the East Pac Season is underway. Looks like that NNW change in heading did spirt some new life. If that heading reamins, TD 1 would likely head toward the central Nicaraguan Coast. It's a bad floodmaking machine for Central America and it's definately another kink in the chain, as those suspecting Caribbean development can be rest assured that development in the SW Caribbean can not share similar real estate with TD1. Likewise, TD 1 cannot be considered a candidate for making it to the Gulf or the Carribean either. This may greatly reduce the threat of a Caribbean storm for now. Later, remenant moisture from TD 1plus the wave that storm 7 mentioned yesterday may be something to watch in the western Caribean. To early to know for certain, but the weather remains somewhat complex, as does the model solutions...Stay tuned and happy tracking.
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dem05
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On a side note and in addition...the 18Z model of the shows that TD 1 may never actually affect central america (landfall wise). Instread it may shunt off to the NW then W. Later, something else may possibly get going in the western Caribbean. Looks like the has been trying to make the simplist solution for a complex weather picture in the medium to longer ranges. No true assurances that the next system will develop in the western Caribbean in 4-5 days either.
Link: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_pcp_l_loop.shtml
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HanKFranK
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nhc finally called it. the system is unusually far east in the eastpac and at a low latitude... there are actually some 'atlantic' systems in the track record that have their origins in the same general location, i.e. 1949 and 1965, others.
at the rate this thing is improving, and also due to the fact that it is parallelling the coast.. reckon this will be tropical storm alma tomorrow morning. i know, alma. the eastpac wasn't the most advisable place to use that name, as it could conceivably be a storm affecting central america like the one in 1966 did.
my prog on this thing is that it stays fairly weak.. but it won't have to get very strong to cause a lot of problems. i'd expect that the collection of model solutions that slowly veer it around in a counterclockwise way are right, and that it goes in later tomorrow near the confluence of nicaragua/honduras and el salvador as a weak tropical storm, short of any off-the-wall intensification. proximity to land should keep that in check (though it's no guarantee). even if it does... though the deep layer steering from the strengthening ridge to the north should push it westward... it might just keep wobbling around in the locally weak steering flow and move onshore anyway. all of the disturbed weather to the east, and the asymmetry of the wind field ought to aid that.
future track is very iffy. most of the models take it around in a gyre inland over central america. mountainous terrain, so the chances that it will dissipate over the weekend are significant. on the other hand, it might try to redevelop offshore north of honduras. there is a chance it will show up in the atlantic basin and all, but that should probably be brief.
gfs is still trying to develop something in the northwestern caribbean even after it gets rid of our current system. after it progged this guy to show up from two weeks out (albeit on the wrong side of central america), i would put a tad of stock in it. sees the pattern, wants to take something up towards florida during the first week of june. highly fluid situation, too early to tell how it will unfold on our side of the continent.
HF 0316z29may
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Clark
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A bit of disagreement between the statistical/dynamical models and the global ensembles with TD 1-E, with the former insistent on a track northward into Central America and the latter insistent on a turn westward before reaching land. Given the coarse resolution and depiction of the storm in the ensembles, I'm more inclined to trust the other guidance. Don't get me wrong, the conditions for this to eventually turn west are there with a strong heat ridge over the south-central US and Mexico, but I'm not sold that this thing won't end up inland and dissipated before that occurs.
And, for those interested, my model page is running four times per day with all of the latest guidance. Once we get into Atlantic season and have storms in this basin, they'll be up on the main page too.
Regardless of the track, as HF alluded to, the conditions which led to this development aren't going away in the near future. The Roundy OLR-based scheme implies favorable genesis conditions will slide somewhat west into the E. Pacific, while the suggests they will remain in about the same location. Equal odds on either for now.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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danielw
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Looks like TD 1E is going to be around a while. In one shape or the other. I just looked at the 18Z 850mb Vorticity loop. The system or vortice remnant is forecast to move near or over the FL Penininsula arounf June 6th. Moving from SW to NE exit near Jacksonville and then cross land again near Savannah,Ga / Charleston,S.C.
From there it meaders over to Northern AL, MS and LA before a passing front pushes it south to the GOM near Terrebone Bay,LA on June13th.
Keep in mind this is a forecast (scenario) that is nearing 12 hours old and the system wasn't a tropical disturbance at the time of the data run.
It is interesting that Most of the locations the Vortice remnants were forecast to pass over are the drought stricken area of the above mentioned states. Well, most of them.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/85v_su_loop.shtml
edit: This is the 2008 News Talkback Forum and we are discussiong an Eastern Pacific system due to the persistant Model runs that bring the system northward over the next 10-14 days. Possibly (probably) into the Gulf of Mexico- GOM next week. ~danielw
Edited by danielw (Thu May 29 2008 04:10 AM)
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dem05
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As Clark also reminds us, somewhat similar conditions will remain in the Eastern Pacific and/or Central America for some time being. One additional evolution I will be watching is how this Eastern Pacific Depression injects heat and moisture into the atmosphere. It's unquastionable that as this monsoon trough, which has morphed from into a Tropical Depression, has provided a vast expansion of moisture into the sw and western Caribbean. Likewise, the heat expelled from the affiliated trough, now newly evolving tropical depression has pumped up the ridge into the Caribbean. Prior to this deveolpment, the area was highly unfavorable and loaded with westerlies, now the area is moving into neutral ground (although not totally ideal). If TD 1 does go inland and dissipates, the moisture and the influance may be a development enhancer for any kind of kick that comes along in the Caribbean...Particularly if a cutoff low does evolve in the western GOMex. Once again, to many questions...to few reliable answers to provide based on the complexities. More to know in 48 or so hours.
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scottsvb
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with the blocking high over the GOM...nothing is going to come up for many days. There is a slight opportunity sunday into monday but that wont happen. On our first system...the Ukmet was the winner. The does a very good job up to 3 days out. After that ..every model falls apart. Im partial though to the for days 4-5. Anyways, Florida really can use the rain.
Edited by scottsvb (Thu May 29 2008 04:57 AM)
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cieldumort
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Looks like we could indeed easily have ourselves Alma -at any moment- this morning.
Here are some of the latest intensity estimates.
Given the improved structure.. specifically, the much improved banding, not to mention also the quality and quantity of deep convection, this 48 knot estimate might not be that far off in the future, if not already there.
CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E
Thursday 29may08 Time: 0706 UTC
Latitude: 11.20 Longitude: -86.70
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 26 [1<--->30]
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| Estimated MSLP: 995 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 48 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 5mb +/- 7 kts )
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Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.76
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 0.96
RMW: 111 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1008 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-18
ATCF data for Month: 05 Day: 29 Time (UTC): 0600
And here from the 2AM PDT TD01E Discussion #2
NHC going a little conservative, by their own admission:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012008
200 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR
THE CENTER AND A VIGOROUS BAND WEST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.
ASCAT DATA SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT NEAR 03Z...AND THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF AN INNER WIND CORE. BASED MAINLY ON THE
ASCAT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT...WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY BELOW THE 35 KT ESTIMATES FROM AND SAB.
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punkyg
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Where do you think TD 1E or should I say soon to be TS Alma is gonna make landfall?
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cchsweatherman
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Tropical Depression 1E has now been upgraded to Tropical Storm Alma per the NAVY website. There is a very impressive structure with well-defined center that now has developed an intense , obvious banding features to the south, and the circulation has continued to tighten and deepen, thus lending to further strengthening. Would not be surprised to see a moderate tropical storm when they issue the advisory - that is winds between 50 and 60 mph.
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