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Area off the Southeast US Coast has a 10% to develop, either way will be wet in parts of the Southeast/NC this weekend. Beryl gone but not forgotten in Houston area where power outages still are widespread.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 4 (Beryl) , Major: 317 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 317 (Idalia) Major: 317 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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East Pacific Alma Over Land
      #79920 - Thu May 29 2008 01:28 PM

Sunday the Atlantic Season Starts, and we'll once again focus solely on it.

Normally you would find this information in the Other basins section of the site, but as a lead in to next week...

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Alma formed from Tropical Depression 1-E this morning and appears to rapidly be intensifying. Hurricane Warnings are now up for the western coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. It probably is a category 1 hurricane now.



After landfall the track takes it north and northwest, likely to fizzle out or weaken greatly as it turns northwest over Central America, bringing a good deal of rain.



Flhurricane normally focuses on the Atlantic Basin, and does not have as much information about Eastern Pacific Systems. You can find more information at the National Hurricane Center


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Beach
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Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane [Re: MikeC]
      #79921 - Thu May 29 2008 01:38 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Is it me or does it look like the "perceived" center is moving
in a NNE movement.
I looks like it will be over land before its projection.

Thoughts...


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Storm Hunter
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Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane [Re: Beach]
      #79922 - Thu May 29 2008 02:56 PM

Alma is should be running winds around 80-90 mph winds now (my estimate, not official) ... landfall for the center should be in the next 2-6 hrs if it maintains its slow movement to the north. See there has been another round of intense storms flaring up right on the west side of the eye....about to wrap around to the east side... another short burst in intensification?

Vis Floater
Close up of Costa Rica

**i'm interested in the area of storms near 75w and 15n... in the caribbean.. got a mid level spin to it... south of jamica... is this the tropical wave/area of storms that the GFS is goin to drag to the NW and try to develope? well the epac started off with a bang! i hope the atlantic is not like that, but i have a feeling the GFS is goin to be right down the road with something on the atlantic side flaring up within the next week or so.**

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri May 30 2008 01:43 AM)


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scottsvb
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Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane [Re: Beach]
      #79923 - Thu May 29 2008 02:58 PM

It may have peaked near hurricane strength around noon (est) but I think with land interaction now it has weakened somewhat..I also think its moving inland within the hour. I could be wrong but I say its less than a 25% chance of it making hurricane status at 5pm...by morning it may not even be a T.S. The area near Jamaica is a convergence of winds giving lift and thunderstorms.. ..

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srquirrely
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Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #79924 - Thu May 29 2008 03:31 PM


**i'm interested in the area of storms near 75w and 15n... in the caribbean.. got a mid level spin to it... south of jamica... is this the tropical wave/area of storms that the GFS is goin to drag to the NW and try to develope?

**Me too...

Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu may 29 2008


Tropical wave is along 71w S of 21n moving W 15-20 kt. Wave
signature is obscured by high clouds that cover much of the
Caribbean...however GFS model guidance suggests slight low-level
cyclonic turning which is aiding in producing scattered
showers/isolated thunderstorms across Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola.

...but I think ridging over GOM is going to totally block any movement in this direction.
Sure looks like an active start coming 6/1!


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MichaelA
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Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane [Re: scottsvb]
      #79925 - Thu May 29 2008 04:15 PM

Alma may have peaked at minimal hurricane intensity, but it looks like the center is onshore in the latest sat pics and its demise is imminent.

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Michael

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allan
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Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane [Re: MichaelA]
      #79926 - Thu May 29 2008 04:57 PM

TS Alma has made Landfall, no hurricane status, but it sure looks a heck like one
I still dont see much of a westward component, in fact, Alma is moving exactly where I thought it was gonna go. In time, while the remnants will be soaking Central America, I believe a new problem invades us around Jamaica. Of course time will always tell, can't be TOO CONFIDENT with these things ya know? Mother nature can always surprise us.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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HanKFranK
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alma inland [Re: allan]
      #79928 - Thu May 29 2008 06:18 PM

that's a first. we just had a tropical storm strength system come ashore east of the mexico/guatemala border on the pacific side... not another like it in the record. sure, there was adrian in 2005 that rapidly weakened to a depression before coming in on the narrow coastline of honduras, and barbara NEARLY made it last year around this time (just west of the border). this storm is way east of either, and stronger than both. true that there are a couple of odd storms on the atlantic record that strangely have their origins in pacific waters. those probably reduce the significance of this storm somewhat.
it'll be a couple days before we get an idea just how much mess this thing caused. coastal impact shouldn't be too great.. winds were only around 50kt, only a couple of bays on that side, not really any offshore shallows to run up a surge or the wind to create one. the storm's entire legacy will revolve around how much rain it drops in central america, and what results. it's fairly slow moving and evolved inside a large monsoon trough, so there will probably be some grim news from that part of the world by the weekend.
my prog on it's future.. is just right of the forecast track, just like the storm has trended. maybe it will creep into the gulf of honduras just a bit, maybe into the lower bowl of the bay of campeche.. but there isn't much reason to believe that the storm won't spend much more time on land and eventually dissipate. i think the NHC decay is too fast.. once it clears the mountainous terrain on the western side of central america it's over less rugged terrain and potentially coastal lowlands. expect it will be around at least a couple of more days.
still a highly fluid situation as far as some kind of redevelopment or secondary development, although chances do not appear high at this point. so far the official line on alma hasn't quite hit the mark, so i'm not ready to discount the idea just yet. like some of the others are implying.. the overall pattern would not be unfavorable for something to end up near the yucatan next week; it just isn't clear how that might unfold, at this point.
HF 2318z29may


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dem05
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Re: alma inland [Re: HanKFranK]
      #79929 - Thu May 29 2008 09:36 PM

Alma's trickery was really something today...and the risk of flooding in Central America is nothing we want to see.

Alma may also leave a legacy of development in the Caribbean (Although her circulation will never make it there). As far Alma's core circulation is concerned...Particularly considering that she was a compact cyclone. However, the moisure from Alma has definately bee ejected into the Caribbean, as has been a somewhat more favorable weather patter. Also, Alma's core was small, but she was embeded within a much larger circulation pattern. The broader circulation pattern may allow for new low pressure development and the focus of this broad pattern may be shifting to the carribean side. Granted, it will take time before Alma's small circulation spins down completely (even with the mountains). However, as noted on this shortwave loop. Breakaway action from Alma is already occurring and there may be some subtle hints on a new mid level circulation trying to form in the intense thunderstorms over eastern Nicaragua and Hondoras. Check out this nice shortwave loop...

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-ir2.html

Broader view: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html


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Storm Hunter
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Re: alma inland [Re: dem05]
      #79930 - Fri May 30 2008 01:42 AM

tonights satellite presentation is interesting.... around the center... the storms seem to have gone elongated... from west to east..... center really took a beating on those mountains... whats that over in the caribbean?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-avn.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-ir2.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri May 30 2008 01:42 AM)


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dem05
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Re: alma inland [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #79931 - Fri May 30 2008 02:29 AM

Them, there cloud tops are warming a bit in the western Caribbean, so it may not look as impressive by morning. However, this is a transition period more than likely and these things take time, so not surpprising. The overall circulation envelope has been broad for Alma all along and spread well into the Caribbean (Thanks to the monsoon trough she evolved in). Albiet, she remained small and compact within this envelope. That envelope remained large. On the shortwave tonight, I can see that not only land affected Alma, but so did this Caribbean weather. Alma's remanants on shortwave resemble an elongated trough, which now extends from her old center and off to the NE into the extreme western Caribbean. Even her core convection has been drwn sharptly Eastward this evening. Stay tuned...cause these things take time, but the focus may shift to the Carribean and a freash new system may evolve. TONS of uncertainty as Alma's core circulation spins down and dies a mountainous death, but it is definately possible to see something new in the Caribbean based on this unique environment .

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Maitland, FL
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Re: East Pacific Alma Likely to Become Hurricane [Re: MikeC]
      #79932 - Fri May 30 2008 07:19 AM

Seems Accuweather's Senior Meteorologists is starting to hint at a Caribbean feature as well:

"Tropical Storm Alma formed in the eastern Pacific early Thursday and made landfall along the Nicaraguan coast Thursday afternoon. Alma is tracking to the north and could cross the northwest Caribbean between Honduras and Belize for a brief time before turning more to the northwest and west over the weekend. It will cause life-threatening flooding rains and mudslides across central America through the weekend. Alma formed within a larger trough of low pressure that extended from the eastern Pacific into the southwestern Caribbean and this broad trough of low pressure may spawn another tropical feature in the western Caribbean next week. A zone of high pressure to the north over the Gulf of Mexico would have to break down before any significant northward movement would occur and does not appear likely through early to middle part of next week. Some models suggest that an upper trough dips southward into the northern Gulf of Mexico later next week, perhaps steering a tropical system toward Florida. In the meantime, clusters of showers and thunderstorms will cross the western Caribbean and areas in and near the zone of showers and thunderstorms will endure locally heavy rainfall over a multi-day period."

By Accuweather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski and Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck

Should be interesting next week.


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Beach
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Re: alma inland [Re: HanKFranK]
      #79934 - Fri May 30 2008 07:31 AM

Looking at the WC this morning it sure looks like it wants to get something going:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

Looking at the bouy links in the general area:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

Winds are 15-25knts pressure holding at 29.86
but there isn't a westerly component to the winds.
"yet"



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Hugh
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Re: alma inland [Re: Beach]
      #79935 - Fri May 30 2008 08:01 AM

*IF* it holds together, we will have our first Atlantic invest later today, I think. Not sure why NRL hasn't picked up on it yet, except that it's indirectly an offshoot of the remnants of Alma (I guess). No closed circulation (yet, as you point out) but a good comma-like signature nontheless... and I can remember too many storms forming in that area this time of year (well, in June anyway).
I can just imagine the very first TWO of the 2008 Atlantic season...

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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MichaelA
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Re: alma inland [Re: Hugh]
      #79936 - Fri May 30 2008 10:27 AM

Looking at the most recent vis loop, there seems to be a broad circulation developing over the Gulf of Honduras. If that spins up, we're looking at a very early start on the Atlantic side of things this year.

--------------------
Michael

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doug
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Re: alma inland [Re: MichaelA]
      #79937 - Fri May 30 2008 10:58 AM

If I'm not mistaken the small remaining vortex from Alma is now seen just off the north coast of Honduras.
This could explain the flair up of convection to the NE of that point. I believe the bulk of what is in the Carribean is mid level, and now that a low level is there things may congeal a bit. The forecast for the remnants of Alma is NNW to NW, which would take it back on to land fairly soon so major development, if any at all would be unexpected, I think. But if that is the vortex over water, things will change in the next few hours and some probable solution begin to emerge.

--------------------
doug


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allan
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Re: alma inland [Re: MichaelA]
      #79938 - Fri May 30 2008 10:59 AM

that spin your reffering to is Alma. It never moved west like the models had planned it, it will be interesting. It needs more time to organize after going through some extremely rough terrain. The NOGAPS a few days back showed this sort of scenario, then dropped it. It looks like it may have been right all that time.

('Wishcasting' comments were removed.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri May 30 2008 12:22 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: alma inland [Re: allan]
      #79939 - Fri May 30 2008 11:21 AM

IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...
ASSOCIATED LARGELY WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...PREVAILS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

from the 8am pdt pkg

Can see a small vortex, off the coast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/loop-ir2.html

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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MichaelA
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Re: alma inland [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #79940 - Fri May 30 2008 01:08 PM

The NW movement looks logical after I looked at the WV sat loop. That trough descending southward over the Atlantic coastal waters off GA and FL certainly indicates that scenario.

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Michael

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cieldumort
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Re: East Pacific Alma Over Land [Re: MikeC]
      #79941 - Fri May 30 2008 05:43 PM Attachment (308 downloads)

This is simply almost amazing.. and not just for early and preseason activity.

Some very impressive stats about Alma's landfall, as mentioned in last night's TS Alma Discussion Number 6:

Quote:

ALMA IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM...IN THE AVAILABLE RECORDS...TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

IT ALSO MADE LANDFALL FARTHER EAST THAN ANY PREVIOUS EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE...

AND WAS THE FIRST TO DO SO ON THE PACIFIC COAST
OF NICARAGUA




Most impressive.

As if this wasn't already impressive enough -

(SEE ATTACHMENT)


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