MikeC
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11:15PM EDT Update 19 July 2008
Cristobal has not intensified this evening...in fact, the satellite and radar presentations look rather unhealthy with very limited convection restricted to the southeast quadrant in occasional, non-sustaining bursts. The intensity is being held at 40kts.
Tropical Strom Warning has been discontinued from the Little River inlet southward; all other warnings remain in place.
The forecast philosophy has not changed. Environmental conditions appear favorable for at least modest intensification, despite the system not availing of them. Shear is light, outflow is good, and SST are amply warm enough considering Cristobal's proximity to the Gulf Stream. In about 2 days, the steering field will begin taking on more SW to SSW vectors and Cristobal will likely be accelerated northeastward at those time ranges. The intensity forecast is still taking Cristobal to 55kts, but until we see appreciable improvement in the convective process, this may be generous. The average of the track guidance indicates a general northeast progress in route to the westerlies. This should keep the system close to the Carolina coasts, then passing seawards of the upper Mid Atlantic and southern New England areas. Nonetheless, continued monitoring of Cristobal's progress is still warranted.
John (typhoon_tip)
2:15PM EDT Update 19 July 2008
Recent reconnaissance mission has detected a 44kt flight level wind, which extrapolates to 40mph Tropical Cyclone. Cristobal was named as of 2pm.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect from south of Santee River in SC to the NC border with VA, including Pamlico Sound.
Models continue to be rather weak with development expectations, perhaps do to the proximity with land. However, at least for the next 2 days, warm SSTs combined with weak shear, and decent outflow aloft should allow for some gradual strengthening. Cristobal is moving northeast near 7 mph. Steering field, for the time being, remains rather weak. However, in 2-3 days, a trough amplifying in the Great Lakes and eventually northeastern U.S., will strengthen more SW or SSW flow aloft, and this will most like capture the tropical cyclone.
John (typhoon_tip)
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Original Post
Tropical Depression 3 has formed off of the Carolina Coast, a Tropical Storm Warning is up from the Santee River in South Carolina to the North Carolina / Virginia Border.
94L in the Caribbean will continue to be watched.
More to come later...
Event Related Links
Long Term Radar Recording of TD#3 HCWX Level 3 Radar Recording/TD#3
Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
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metwannabe
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NHC 8:00 am public advisory stated the system had been moving erratically, but it appears to me that the center has tried to redevelop a little further east closer to the deep convection. Is this possible or just one of those sat illusions? Fairly impressive band to the north/northeast about to roll on shore around NC/SC border. 
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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DarleneCane
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Banding on TD 3 looks more consistent with a well organized Tropical Storm. Have seen many tropical storms that looked more like 94 yet kept TS status.
I know there are many parameters for an upgrade. It can seem confusing.
Satellite presentation has improved all day.
Good logical reason given for why the models aren't playing with it as much as 94 that they haven't dropped.
I was surprised they didn't upgrade at 11.
However, I am impressed with the burst of convective energy in 94 currently.
Which system is recon currently in? I am confused on this.
Thanks. Love the energy on this board. Great evaluations of evolving cyclones!
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Scratch my back with a lightning bolt
Thunder rolls like a bass drum note
The sound of the weather is Heaven's ragtime band
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scottsvb
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Correct weathernet... that is a midlevel vort from last nights T-Storms.. and very good post you did. The LLC (from what I can tell) is actually just west of the convection further south near 14.5 N and 79.5W moving west. It may reform further north.. then again it may just never develop. If it does... I do agree with the direction the models take it.. towards the Yucituan. If it doesnt.. its a central american rainmaker!
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craigm
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Recon is finding some 54mph SFC winds around 94L
Please correct me if I'm reading this wrong
Should 94L posts go into the forecast lounge? I'm getting confused .
Time:
16:36:30Z
Coordinates:
16.08N 78.67W
Acft. Static Air Press:
977.6 mb (~ 28.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
278 meters (~ 912 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press:
1009.8 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 79° at 33 knots (From the E at ~ 37.9 mph)
Air Temp:
19.4°C (~ 66.9°F)
Dew Pt:
19.4°C (~ 66.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind:
47 knots (~ 54.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate:
10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
Edited by craigm (Sat Jul 19 2008 01:10 PM)
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
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Just starting to see some high level clouds on the OBX. It's a little hard to tell, but it looks like the center is moving due north at this point.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-vis.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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Brett Addison
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I don't understand why 94l won't develop. What kind of conditions does this storm require (35C water temp, 0 knots of wind shear, 100% humidity levels, 200 kJ cm-2 TCHP, 500m depth for 26C temp). Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for development and if this doesn't develop then something is wrong. I would think TD#3 would have less of a chance for developing then 94l given the conditions it's in. Any thoughts?
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scottsvb
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94L is mostly a midlevel system...it has a weak LLC but it mainly a trough in the midlevel and models keep forecasting this to get better organized. It may or may not before C America. It has till Monday morning.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Just a reminder to all to review the various Forum descriptions before you post. If your post contains dialogue about projections from the various storm models, then your post belongs in the Forecast Lounge (and it will be moved to that Forum - often without explanation if we are busy). You can really assist the site Moderators on this by putting it there in the first place. I'm sure that they would appreciate your help on this 'point of emphasis' for this season.
Thanks,
ED
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cieldumort
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So far, SFMR measurements of the max surface winds within 94L were taken at
16:01:30Z 16.08N 76.42W and were 52 knots (59.8MPH)
94L has been getting battered around by a bit from a few different sources, but the ULL to its northwest that has been imparting quite a bit of shear is showing some indications that it is coalescing a touch more north-northwest of 94.. and may be pulling ahead (to the west) a touch faster now , which could help offer 94L another window to establish a meaningful LLCC, and ultimately a tight-enough closed surface circulation. Should and once this happens, it is almost certain that this invest would go strait to a name, skipping TD classification.
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weatherguy08
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Looks like TD3 is now Cristobal in the 2:00 pm package from the !
"...CRISTOBAL FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN..."
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Yep! we have TS Cristobal... Recon is flying around right now... off of South Carolina... on first pass through center.. pressure was 1007mb and MAX FL WIND 0UTBOUND 45 KT NE QUAD 17:17:30Z... there at 1,500ft flying
Also recon is in 94L right now too... they made a pass through what i think would be the low center... there are now just east of the island of isle de san andres at 1pm cdt...
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Hugh
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Recon seems to be finding T.S. force winds in 94L, but I gather no closed low still?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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yes and no... the 2pm had
"A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS ABOVE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. "
and looks like recon is heading back to the island of St. Croix... (base)
I only see one dropsonde data set... and that makes me wanna say, they couldn't close off a circulation... but will have to see..
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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JoshuaK
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The given position for the low level circulation center was 14N 78W by the Hurricane Hunter plane. I managed to spot the indicated area on satellite imagery, and it seems that since the Hunter had left the system, that there has been a blow up of convection directly over the indicated low level circulation center. I would not be suprised if it was declared a closed circulation now.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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I'm still not seeing a closed circulation there. There may be one trying to form, but we've seen that several times with this one. Tomorrow may tell a different story.
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Michael
PWS
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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agree... don't see a closed center... However a band of convection did fire up over the low... and i think it will take 12hrs or so for it to get going... the shear appears to becoming better with ever hr.... and this wave should slow down some too in movement... tonight i think we will see a big blow up of convection..
Close Up
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
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A note on 94L:
Quickscat isn't picking up circulation yet. Thus I doubt it is a closed low yet. However, the convective flareup on IR is quite good, so we could see the low closing and a TD forming relatively soon, if it can hold a center together.
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cieldumort
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A tip: When checking QuikSCAT, it's helpful to note the time stamp of when the pass was taken. The image linked above is from a pass taken at 7:35 AM EDT, and is no longer applicable to real-time conditions at the surface.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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It is worth noting that the latest shear forecasts reverse the downward trend and again increase northwesterly shear across the entire Caribbean Sea. All other factors would favor a slow intensification, however the shear may continue to hold any significant development of 94L in check for a couple of more days. Unless the movement of the wave should slow down a bit (which is possible), that would put the tropical wave very near or over the Yucatan before the windshear relaxes.
ED
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