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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Beryl) , Major: 323 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 323 (Idalia) Major: 323 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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cieldumort
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: metwannabe]
      #81031 - Wed Jul 30 2008 09:51 PM

Looks like some routine summer flareups, helped along by some old boundaries, upper-level lows, and passing waves, are keeping on and off convection going in the Caribbean.

That area does start to bubble quite a bit during the peak.

So many little impulses between the CONUS and Africa all of a sudden. Upper-level winds aren't yet all that supportive of just about any of them, but just looking at the volume of convective clusters and waves, I think I'll keep a casual eye on the entire Atlantic basin for the next few days. It is almost August, and we have seen a really perky July, as it is, after all.

98L got its act together quicker than model runs could catch up, and has curved so far north, so fast, that it is now over waters even cooler than 24C. For a fledgling cyclone, this is usually an insurmountable challenge, and so to no surprise, just about all of the deep convection is now gone. In this injured state, it could tend to start drifting along on a more westerly course until it encounters a new patch of favorable SSTs and upper-level winds. More probably, it will go the way of the do-- 97L.. but, I'm not willing to write it off completely just yet, given what it did in its first 24 hours offshore.

Next batter up is coming off roughly just north of 10 or 11, and also looking pretty good. If this one doesn't ramp up right out the gate, it might stay just low enough to slowly and steadily work its way to become something more.


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metwannabe
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81036 - Fri Aug 01 2008 09:05 AM

The cloud mass formerly known as 98L appears to be trying to find new life. It appears to still have a low and is moving towards warmer SST. Storms trying to fire also and I guess if it stays in this weakened state it would continue to move westard. Might not be able to right it off completely just yet.

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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metwannabe
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81037 - Fri Aug 01 2008 09:09 AM

No sooner than I finish my post I go back to NHC and they have given this some attention:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY NOT VERY
CONDUCIVE...SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

I really did post that before I read the TWO. lol

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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cieldumort
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81038 - Fri Aug 01 2008 12:24 PM

Well, old Invest 98L is now our new 99L.


Not going to beat a dead horse too much on this one, but if you go through the past 72 hours of loops, "98L" ran a course pretty much just like one of those shorter-lived east pac tropical storms: vigorous tropical wave comes off central America (rather than Africa, in 98L's case), convection really goes up once it hits water, tropical depression forms - often becomes a storm, starts to hook too far to the north too fast and ends up hitting cooler waters right away, convection wanes and what is left is a very well-defined low-level swirl. 98L could have been any of those short-lived east pac TCs of the past, but was just in the wrong basin.

Invest "99L" is just now crossing the 26c isotherm, and slowly increasing SSTs at or above 26.5 lie ahead. These might be a little more helpful. At least 26c-28c will certainly not be hurtful, as was the 23-24c 98L found itself over. What is really holding the low level swirl back from doing anything more right now, is the extremely dry environment it finds itself in, and this does not look to be changing any time soon. Its best hope in the near term would be to have a fortuitous healthy burst of convection that just envelops it some, and offering a little bit of a cocoon in an otherwise hostile world in which to grow again.

Given that in its weakened state it is now on a mostly west heading, the longer it doesn't really ramp up, but just barely holds in there, the greater the risk it pulls off a recovery closer to land, and doesn't recurve in time, if at all.


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doug
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: metwannabe]
      #81039 - Fri Aug 01 2008 12:25 PM

And no sooner did the flare up begin when it subsided.
There is indeed a surface low which has been chugging merrily along due west at about 18N for several days but it is imbedded in DRY air and has no support. The environment ahead of it contains shear from the ULL to the NW of this system...It doesn't look like it will develop until later, if at all. Not much of any immediacy out there.

--------------------
doug


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craigm
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: doug]
      #81040 - Fri Aug 01 2008 04:27 PM Attachment (236 downloads)

I 'm not sure about 99L. It has the strongest microwave foot print I have seen so far with an invest in this stage, it is moving into warmer SST's as 'Sky of death' (Cieldumort) pointed out and what I consider to be moderate shear 20 knots.See attachment above.If 99L were 5 to 10 degrees of latitude further south I'd say it would be more of a concern.

(Comments on model outputs belong in the Forecast Lounge.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Fri Aug 01 2008 05:08 PM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81041 - Fri Aug 01 2008 10:12 PM Attachment (290 downloads)

Next up might be the wave formerly located just east of the westernmost tip of Africa and up around 10-11N.

Presently located around 11N 25W, it now appears to have a developing surface low along its axis. Given its lower latitude, moister environment, and lower shear, this feature could very well become something more before 99L might be able to. I have included a picture of it as an attachment.


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weathernet
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Re: Wave & 90L Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81042 - Sat Aug 02 2008 09:39 AM

Its official; as of this morning we now have 99L and 90L to keep an eye on. Will start up a new thread in the forecast lounge on 90L for my own thoughts and any one else's. :?:

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 02 2008 10:06 AM)


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cieldumort
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81044 - Sat Aug 02 2008 10:49 AM

Getting a look at the new visible images out this morning --

Invest 99L is looking surprisingly healthy this morning, and has even started to rate T numbers again. The most recent out of SAB is a T of 1.0, which really looks like it might be raised again come their next update in a few hours.

So far today 99L (old 98) has chased off any dry air intrusions like a champ. It might have a window of 2-3 days before shear would have a chance to force in gobs more dry air, to ramp up. If it can create an upper-level anticyclone within this window, shear may be reduced a great deal going forward.

NRL already has 99's winds up at 30 knots, and just a little more organized convection could earn 99 a number, and perhaps even a name, in short order.

90L is still gliding through a favorably moist atmosphere with shear generally under 25 knots, to as little as 10-15 knots. It is currently analyzed at about 1009mb.

While not a wave, I'm thinking it's time to mention something a little bit closer to home. An old, decaying frontal boundary that attempted to work up a surface low just south of Louisiana earlier this past week, but went inland before anything could really take, has slid back out over the northern GOM. Upper-level high pressure is expected to have a chance to build over this festering old frontal feature during the next few days, and it could try to pull something off with little notice. This is one of the most favored methods of tropical cyclogenesis in this part of the Atlantic.


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danielwAdministrator
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Northern GOM [Re: cieldumort]
      #81047 - Sat Aug 02 2008 12:52 PM

Beginning to see the low level wind fields supportive of a surface or near-surface Low pressure.
Cyclonic circulation is noted on the NWS wind profiles at New Orleans/ Slidell, Mobile, Eglin AFB and Tallahassee Radars.
Winds speeds are up to at least 30 knots at 15,000 feet at this time, while 1000ft wind speeds are in the 5- 10 knot range at the above stations.

Wind speeds at buoys 42039 and 42040 have been up to 20-25knts but have dropped off a bit in the last two hours.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml


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weathernet
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: cieldumort]
      #81048 - Sat Aug 02 2008 01:15 PM

I agree with regard to the N. Gulf potential cyclogenisis, and N. Fla. radar certainly depicting some rotation ( at some level ). Yet, I would think to truly work its way down to the surface and fully organize, will take a couple days. Am just not yet seeing on vis. satellite all that much evidence of inflow from the east. Granted, a small system need not nearly as much time to develop as a typical tropical wave.

I disagree on 99L and though share your sentiiments on its appearance and obvious circulation. My take however is that we are seeing 99L at its peak and upper level shear may soon start to "de-couple" any existant or developing low level center. Looks to me that the low level is starting to race westward ahead of the convection just a little. I think this may become more evident as time goes on. That all said...., it sure has pulled itself together nicely since yesterday.

90L continues to slowly ( or maybe NOT so slowly ) consolodate, and has a nice overall shape. Hard to see any evidence of circulation yet, but then again its hard to find a decent loop of this critter. If any of the 3 features were to develop further, I believe 90L might be the first to "officially" reach depression ( "officially" because 99L may technically have already crossed that threshold already today ).


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Hurricane29
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: weathernet]
      #81049 - Sat Aug 02 2008 01:57 PM

(The main page has direct links to most of the advisories and reposting them just tends to clutter the site. Your repost is likely to be edited down or graveyarded depending on how much content other than the article/advisory is there.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 02 2008 03:00 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: weathernet]
      #81050 - Sat Aug 02 2008 01:57 PM

well looks like we may get a home grown system in the Northern GOM... in the next day or so... this looks a lot better than last weeks feature that moved across the GOM. Looks to me that the mid level center is about 100 miles south of Pensacola... don't really see any signs of a low level center yet... but i think it may try to organize some tonight... GOM SST's are very warm


Vis Loop

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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xxflcyclonexx
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: ShanaTX]
      #81055 - Sat Aug 02 2008 04:02 PM

Looking at the infrared loop zoomed in on Florida, the GOM disturbance is clearly becoming more organized near the center.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/fires-fl-ir4-loop.html


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Black Pearl
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: xxflcyclonexx]
      #81058 - Sat Aug 02 2008 07:43 PM

NGOM system is 91L
NRL


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Wave Watching [Re: Black Pearl]
      #81059 - Sat Aug 02 2008 08:42 PM

time permitting... this is really cool close up on 91L

91L Vis

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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danielwAdministrator
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GOM 91L [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #81060 - Sat Aug 02 2008 10:18 PM

Late visible, static image of Storm Hunter's post


I'm curious to see what happens to 91L when the MCS moving through MS-AL-GA runs into it at 25kts later tonight.
It could get very interesting. Or not.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: GOM 91L [Re: danielw]
      #81064 - Sun Aug 03 2008 01:06 PM

well we got the official low now... Special Statement was issued just a little bit ago... good thing about recon... they'll have plenty of fuel to burn on this area... so we should have good data for tonights 00Z runs...

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ...............

i was off by about 8-12 hrs... in thinking the low would make it down to the surface... darn

and the image above post dy daniel.. from last night is where the mid level low center made it down to the surface in my opinion.... with pressure's already being low... didn't take much... SST's are very warm in that area... south of PNS. The general thinking on my part... northern TX coast landfall?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 03 2008 01:11 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Administrative Note [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81071 - Sun Aug 03 2008 04:02 PM

Two items to tale note of:
1) 'bets', 'hunches' and model projection posts belong in the Forecast Lounge.

2) In the last few days there has been quite a few one-line posts. Just a reminder that CFHC is not a chat room and that these types of posts are likely to be deleted or sent to the Graveyard. Your help on this is solicited.
ED


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cieldumort
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Re: Gulf of Mexico Watching and Wave Watching [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #81072 - Sun Aug 03 2008 04:03 PM

91L is giving us a run for our money. Looks like recon is very close to closing a center off somewhere in the vicinity of 28N 88W. If they can't close it off, it's not for trying, that's for sure. Pressure may be down around 1007mb, or lower now (based on flight level to surface extrap). Max sustained surface winds outside the coc as measured by SFMR may already be suggesting up to a 35-40 knot range (1-min average). System does not have the best environment for development, sandwiched between too large swaths of hostile wind and/or very dry air, but if it starts to hook more to the west, it could outrun the ULL approaching from its southeast, while also moving along just south of the dry, stable zone to its north. In fact, the ULL to its southeast may stay just far enough away to provide a healthy outflow channel, should 91L organize more.

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