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A few swirls trying to earn an Invest tag in the final days of the 2021 Season. Their environment is not ideal for development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 76 (Nicholas) , Major: 92 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1146 (Michael) Major: 1146 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Question for the lounge.... [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #81350 - Thu Aug 14 2008 01:34 PM

If it looks , walks and quacks like a duck what is it? I'm sorry I'm starting to think this is more a function of not alarming interests along the east coast of the U.S. at the expense of timely warnings for the Northern Leewards. I realize the system is tilted and we need good sound data but, it sure looks like more than an invest to me. Hopefully they are all paying close attention in the islands. Anyone agree with me?

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist


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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
Re: Fay? [Re: craigm]
      #81353 - Thu Aug 14 2008 01:45 PM

Didn't 92L/Fay drive right through Hebert's Box? I know that is "old school" forecasting, but storms that do get my attention here in Florida...

--------------------
Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!


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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser


Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Puerto Morelos,Mx
Re: Question for the lounge.... [Re: craigm]
      #81354 - Thu Aug 14 2008 01:46 PM

For what it's worth.............This thing is in the Hebert Box.

If you don't know what the Hebert Box is,please do a search.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
Loc:
Re: Question for the lounge.... [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #81356 - Thu Aug 14 2008 01:57 PM

Hebert's link:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Thu Aug 14 2008 02:08 PM)


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Fay? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #81359 - Thu Aug 14 2008 02:12 PM

There seems to be some inconsistency here.
From the 2:05 PM TWD:
Quote:

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC/E CARIBBEAN ALONG
61W/62W WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 18N MOVING W
10-15 KT. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WELL EAST OF
THE LOW CENTER AT THIS TIME.




61W;18N is directly under the convection, isn't it?

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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RayRay from La.
Unregistered




Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #81360 - Thu Aug 14 2008 02:21 PM

I was wondering if there is any chance of this depression/storm coming into the Gulf Of Mexico?
I have not seen any information in the last 2 days on this website to support that.
I live in Louisiana and was wondering what would have to happen for this storm to enter the gulf.
If it goes into the gulf do any of you think that there is a chance that it will come near La.?
I know that it is very early to predict, but alittle worried about any storm that gets into the gulf.
Thanks guys and keep up the great work here. I enjoy your website and have learned alot over the years.
Thanks!


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NY Red Crosser
Unregistered




Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: MikeC]
      #81361 - Thu Aug 14 2008 02:21 PM

Yes, "looks" to be a TD by now. Let's hope this one goes the way of the fishes as the long range models suggest.

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Aug 14 2008 11:49 PM)


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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
Re: Fay? [Re: MichaelA]
      #81362 - Thu Aug 14 2008 02:23 PM

Perhaps the "activity" located well east of the LLC is forming it's own LLC...along with the LLC that started 92L to begin with. If there is no LLC below the blowup of convection, then the storm is in it's infancy still...and when that quadrant wraps around the exist LLC that they think is west of the blob...we'll have a huge system. However, it SURE DOES LOOK like the blob has it's own spin to it. I might not be very smart, but i know what a blob is....lol

so to recap...is the LLC under the huge fire up of convection...or east of it..??? or are there going to be two?

who knows. ONe thing for sure...it's growing....


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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
Re: 92L Forecast Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #81363 - Thu Aug 14 2008 02:26 PM

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
115 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

COORDINATION WITH TPC RESULTED IN DIRECTING THE
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM NORTHWARD EAST OF FLORIDA...BUT AGREED
WITH THE SPECIALIST THERE THAT CONFIDENCE IN EITHER THE STRENGTH
OR TRACK OF THIS LOW IS QUITE LOW. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL TAKES THE
SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA...THEN LIFTS IT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS IT NORTHWARD WELL SHORT OF THE
FLORIDA COAST IN A HEAVILY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.


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JFV
Unregistered




Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: MikeC]
      #81367 - Thu Aug 14 2008 02:47 PM

Look at the latest model runs Mickey, and tell me whether that continues to be the present circumstance or not? Just some food for though there for you. Farewell!

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Fay? [Re: MichaelA]
      #81368 - Thu Aug 14 2008 02:49 PM

"Faybe yes and Fabe no". As recon data continues to come in, I saw one extrapolated report of 1004mb ( at 17.7N & 61.5W ). As well, some various wind reports of winds near 40kt. This all said, the strongest west wind I had noticed as of about 10 minutes ago, was about 8mph. Here's my take.....

I believe 92L is a depression by most definitions, yet truly still tilted somewhat. Though what I have seen would seem to close off a low, there is certainly the chance while this system is "on the cusp", for the convection to wane, and perhaps go through yet another cycle perhaps this evening or early tommorrow a.m. to finally get its act together. Still remaining a distinct possibility of this borderline shallow system to track 270 degrees ( westward ) and be disrupted by P.R. In fact, as I type this, the cloud tops have warmed slightly, and it is my own opinion that given a continuity of deep convection, even in close proximity to the westward tilted lower surface pressures, it would have been tagged a depression by 5:00pm. If there is a pause in the deep convection and the cloud tops much less cold than earlier, than it may be borderline enough to delay an upgrade to depression. This all said, slow continued organization may still require such designation tonight. I do not believe "Fay" will be named immediately, IF upgraded later today or evening. If upgraded in the very near term, I believe to a depression. Tommorow a.m could be another thing.

With regards to forecast models, I have a good respect for the GFDL, but moreso AFTER the TC is a fairly established vertical system. All models may be viewed with a little more accuracy when a "true fix" may truly establish actual location and forward speed of motion. This said, I have always looked at the GFS, UK, and Euro as well for motion. NOGAPS as well, though it tends to be very conservative on intensity. Of course one need look at the BAMD layer too ( given a well established TC ). Only caviot is that here too, I find certain models to carry small Trop. Cyclones better, while larger Hurricanes tend to not only be affected by downstream influences, but tend interact and even alter certain upper or mid level impacts.

In looking at the latest 12Z GFDL, it appeared to me that there was a slight ( and I do mean slight ) track adjustment towards the west. Look, all of the models, even if consistant will vary at least a little from run to run. Simple point would seem to be that "if" this system does not get disrupted by land, than the upper air seems conducive for a Tropical Storm or hurricane to be just north of the Greater Antilles for at least a couple days. After that, could recurve - could move westward. There does not yet seem to be too much confidence in the 4-7 day steering flow over the Bahamas / S.E. U.S. yet. This picture may become clear soon, but not quite yet.


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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Fay? [Re: MichaelA]
      #81369 - Thu Aug 14 2008 02:53 PM

They have not flown into that area but keep flying where the former center (or soon to be former) is. Hopefully they will fly into the area we all can see is going to be the center soon if not now. what good is recon if they are not sent to the place where the weather is occurring. Its kind of maddening in a way

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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Gulf a possibility? [Re: RayRay from La.]
      #81370 - Thu Aug 14 2008 03:03 PM

Quote:

I was wondering if there is any chance of this depression/storm coming into the Gulf Of Mexico?
I have not seen any information in the last 2 days on this website to support that.
I live in Louisiana and was wondering what would have to happen for this storm to enter the gulf.
If it goes into the gulf do any of you think that there is a chance that it will come near La.?
I know that it is very early to predict, but alittle worried about any storm that gets into the gulf.
Thanks guys and keep up the great work here. I enjoy your website and have learned alot over the years.
Thanks!




Strictly opinion here, and that based on longer range steering that still may be nebulous. A weaker system that could have treked westward through the Greater Antilles could certainly reach the Gulf. Or, a potentially stronger storm having gone more WNW just north of the Greater Antilles could enter the Gulf as well. What I am seeing downstream appears to be a weakening trough which is bent N.E. / S.W. Looks to me that a big building ridge somewhere over the Southern Plains is moving or bridging eastward in time. Timing is everything here. My guess is that even if a storm were in the E. Gulf, that it would seem to have to be steered more westward in such a set up. That would tend to have the W. or N.W. Gulf more at risk. Again, this is assuming a big northerly retreat of the westerlies with a big mid level high over or near Texas. This would be my guess if this were work its way into the Gulf.

Remember, maps and models change, and its only a "best guess" based on current data that may not prove accurate.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Gulf a possibility? [Re: weathernet]
      #81371 - Thu Aug 14 2008 03:07 PM

Newest GFDL Rides the East coast of Florida, EMCWF brings it through central florida then into the Central Gulf into MS/Alabama area. Looks like a shift back west, still not completely developed though so it remains suspect. But those are some of the latest for those asking. A good rule of thumb is two full runs of models after a storm has actually formed.



Edit, also Dvorak numbers are up to 2.0, so formation of a depression tonight is fairly likely.


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Pensacola WX
Unregistered




Re: Gulf a possibility? [Re: MikeC]
      #81373 - Thu Aug 14 2008 03:26 PM

I sure hope that the gulf is not a possibility. What I want to know is what is the CMC trying to form in the gulf long range?

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mar32366
Unregistered




Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: MikeC]
      #81382 - Thu Aug 14 2008 04:44 PM

I'm seeing the first signs of nw and west winds from the recon Maybe a Depression at 5pm,

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LBJ
Unregistered




Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: mar32366]
      #81384 - Thu Aug 14 2008 04:49 PM

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2008

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...
ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS NOT
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: LBJ]
      #81391 - Thu Aug 14 2008 07:51 PM

i about spit my drink out this morning when i saw the 12Z CMC... perfect conditions for a major cane in the EGOM coming mid next week... ERR!!! i am starting to think though... this may be a GOM threat... i would have expected that 92L be a TD by now... and with the islands now... i think it may take longer for it to get going at the surface. and farth west i would expect the track

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: dvorak shmorak..Fay is on the way.... [Re: SeaMule]
      #81397 - Thu Aug 14 2008 08:37 PM

Really good comments tonight here. Not much I can add.

There is one main area of convection, bright red on IR tonight and its on radar so if they can't find a center soon I don't know when they will. Can a mid level hover just above the surface? I remember a storm several years back that had 3 flights into a wave that looked like it was a strong Tropical Storm before they could find the elusive west wind.

The models have been very good on this so far and so that is good. Down the line it's a very hard forecast for the NHC. IF it does follow the coast of Florida the slightest variation of degrees right can make the difference between landfall at Pt. Everglades, WPB or just clipping the Cape. That's down the road and right now we don't have a designated storm.

NHC makes the call.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Watching the Wave Northeast of the Lesser Antilles [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #81398 - Thu Aug 14 2008 08:41 PM

I cannot get the SJU long-range radar to show for some reason to see what the circulation looks like on radar, but on satellite, it clearly looks like it should have been upgraded to Fay by now.
The new model runs trending toward a EGOM track northward are VERY concerning... hopefully they will shift back to the east away from the east coast of Florida completely.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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