MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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7PM Update 17 August 2008
Fay is continuing to move mostly west and slightly north, remaining south of Cuba, the forecast track has shifted a bit west, but remains at a very odd angle, so unfortunately any position along Florida may be impacted. The watch area needs to begin preparations, and the rest of Florida needs to watch closely.
The relatively weak and broad nature of the system is causing difficulty trying to keep track of the center of circulation, this system is a huge headache for the National Hurricane Center trying to forecast it.
Until the system crosses Cuba, things will be difficult to predict. The National Hurricane Center compares the difficulty of forecasting the track very similar to what happened with (as far as the landfall forecast, NOT the result or intensity) And this means anywhere along the western coast of Florida, up into the Panhandle need to be watching this one closely. Also the system's convection is mostly on the eastern side, so as it nears Florida likely the chances of weak tornadoes will go up along some of the outer rain bands of the system.
11 AM EDT Update:
The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Anna Maria Island. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Ocean Reef to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, and along the Mainland from Card Sound Bridge westward to Anna Maria Island. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Cuba frfom the Provinces of La Habana and Ciudad de la Habana eastward the Sancti Spiritus.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Cuba from the Provinces of La Habana and Ciudad de la Habana eastward to Guantanamo, and the Cayman Islands of Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.
Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southeast Coast of Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Jupiter Inlet, and for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
At 11 AM the Tropical Storm Watch is discontinued for the Central Bahamas.
Previous Update
A Hurricane watch is up for the Keys this morning, actually from card sound bridge, south through all the Keys up to Bonita Beach. Tropical Storm Watches are up north of there along the east coast to Jupiter Inlet. Lake Okeechobee also is under a Tropical Storm Watch.
This means hurricane or tropical storm (Respectively) conditions are possible there in 36 hours.
The latest forecast track focuses in on the Western Coast of Florida, those along the entire Florida peninsula should keep a very close eye on Fay over the next few days, especially those on the West Coast. Pay attention to local media, officials, and more when it comes to your particular area. Read the official statements from the National Hurricane Center (Available at the top of the page here, or at the Hurricane Center's web site) as well as the local hurricane statements put out by the national weather service offices in Florida.
Fay strengthened a hair overnight, but the core remained at or just off the shore of Southern Cuba this morning, indications from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft that sampled the air around the storm indicate that the storm appears to be making the turn more northerly soon, however the Cuban government does not allow US government planes to fly over their territory, so no center vortex messages we able to be taken.
Fay this morning looks still rather disorganized on satellite this morning, which is good news, since this will likely keep it from strengthening much while near Cuba.
The forecast track remains similar to the earlier ones, with the largest issue being how much time Fay will get after it crosses Cuba to strengthen along with how weak will Cuba make it. The current thinking is that it will have time to become a category 1 hurricane before landfall. To add to difficulties some of the models are beginning to spread, making the exact track very difficult. The entire west coast of Florida needs to pay attention.
We have a few discussion threads going on Fay, if you would like to discuss Fay's possible impact on Florida, check out here, if you want to let people what you think, or have a gut feeling, or want to shoot the breeze on Fay do that in the Fay forecast Lounge Want to let us know about conditions in your area, any closings, notices, or evacuations, let pass it along in this area. This is done to attempt more order during the flood of information (both good and bad) that will come over the next few days.
Some of the outer bands are now visible on Key West long range radar,
General Fay Related Links:
Florida Emergency Management / floridadisaster.org
Cuban Radar Flhurricane Recording of Cuban Mosaic radar
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar)
Fay plotted on Google Map
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SteveABoston
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Loc: Boston MA
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I have business in Tampa tomorrow, flying in from Boston MA 7 arrive in Tamp 10:30....leave Tampa 6PM..... other then talking with a Delta rep on the phone that does not know much of anything regarding TS Fay, is their any other means of contacting the air port to find out when they might start to cancel flights or that up to the indiv. airlines? I do not want to get stuck in Tampa...(in a storm, that is)..... I seriously think that Monday would be ok regarding any heavy winds, which should be still south of that area, but you know how the airlines work...
Steve
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Lklnd_Wtchr
Registered User
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I have been watching the weather ever since moving to Florida. This site has really helped me to understand the hurricanes much better. Although I have never posted here, I do have a question. Last night the has predicted at least a Hurricane when it got to Florida and looks like they have downgraded to Tropical Storm. Any idea as it has been gaining slow speed and when it it the GOM those waters are warm? Just wondering if anyone can shed some light on this.
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Lklnd_Wtchr
Registered User
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Quote:
I have business in Tampa tomorrow, flying in from Boston MA 7 arrive in Tamp 10:30....leave Tampa 6PM..... other then talking with a Delta rep on the phone that does not know much of anything regarding TS Fay, is their any other means of contacting the air port to find out when they might start to cancel flights or that up to the indiv. airlines? I do not want to get stuck in Tampa...(in a storm, that is)..... I seriously think that Monday would be ok regarding any heavy winds, which should be still south of that area, but you know how the airlines work...
Steve, hope this helps for you. I am attaching a website with phone number on it where you may be able to get information from.
http://www.tampaairport.com/contact/index.asp
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engicedave
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
I have business in Tampa tomorrow, flying in from Boston MA 7 arrive in Tamp 10:30....leave Tampa 6PM..... other then talking with a Delta rep on the phone that does not know much of anything regarding TS Fay, is their any other means of contacting the air port to find out when they might start to cancel flights or that up to the indiv. airlines? I do not want to get stuck in Tampa...(in a storm, that is)..... I seriously think that Monday would be ok regarding any heavy winds, which should be still south of that area, but you know how the airlines work...
Steve
Just guessing, and you'll need to stay on top of your airlines, but you'll probably be fine other than any usual delays.
If I remember correctly, wind break point is sustained TS force winds
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
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Is anyone able to find the COC on Cuban radar, having no luck here. Looks as though some dry air is being infused into the system.
This storm is definitely a fighter. I'm interested to see what if any changes in intensity take place today. It's got a lot of hurdles to overcome.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
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Loc: Florida
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If, and when, the issues watches/warnings for the Tampa Bay area, the airports will more than likely close shortly thereafter. The best advice I can give you is to keep in touch with your airline, watch the updates and if you don't want to be stuck here, then you can always choose not to come. Not a great answer, I know, but the best one I can give you at the moment.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Fay looks as worse now then she was when exiting Haiti, though that could change tonight. Looks like the mountains of cuba are hampering Fay now. I wouldnt be suprised to see the pressure rise during the midday until night fall.
Edited by scottsvb (Sun Aug 17 2008 10:24 AM)
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Colleen A.
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Loc: Florida
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Hope this helps clear things up; it's from the 5am Discussion:
THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE AND FAY COULD BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS FAY NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. FAY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT
EXPLICITLY SHOW IT.
Right now it appears to just be brushing by the lower eastern part of Cuba, causing disruption to the storm. Watch and wait to see what happens after it clears that area, as that will be crucial to the strength of Fay in the short term future.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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it looks like fay's center jumped wnw a few dozen miles when it passed the santiago area of cuba. looks like it did on cuban radar and on satellite. i'm wondering what implications that will have, because if it did fay just suckerpunched itself again with land effects and wrecked its vertical alignment. on the other hand, if the center weakens and takes a more westward jaunt today, it will get more of a swing out into the southeastern gulf. complicate that with the guidance opening back up by reading more into that shortwave due to pass to the north... it seems like those models may have it initialized too strong, but that's an awful lot of guidance biting on a nne track over florida until the descending high starts blocking it later in the week.
fay is an unusually sadistic storm, from the same school as in 2006. it does have dramatically better atmospheric conditions, yet has the same penchant for scourging itself on the most destructive landscape available, and hugging landmasses too closely to really organize/deepen. if it really has jumped its center, that could result in more vertical alignment problems and an continued inability to capitalize on the impressive outflow it has enjoyed for days. just got to see how far west it can get... that will have more bearing on what florida really ends up dealing with.
HF 1432z17august
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Hmmm I'm having a hard time finding a center fix... this appears tobe a broad low pressure system again. I see a LLC spining off rapidly NW near 20.8 and 79.1 .. If this is the actually old center, then Fay might not be more than a wave crossing Cuba and hurricane chances for florida will be down to almost nothing, even with the SE Gulf waters. Too much land interaction is hurting this system.
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Quote:
Is anyone able to find the COC on Cuban radar, having no luck here.
tracking further north than the forecast track is really knocking it down.
http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/NacComp200Km.gif
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Wxwatcher2
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Waiting to see what the 11am EDT discussion is on Fay. I think the center of circulation is way too close to the Cuban coastline for the system to strengthen too much.
Ref the Tampa Airport, I think you will be fine coming in and out on Monday. Tuesday is when the weather should really be at it's worse in the Tampa area.
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charlottefl
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Ok, this storm is strange. I agree with the last post I believe the center has relocated.( Hard to tell on IR, going back to vis) It appears to be smack in the middle of what was left of the deep convection, directly over the SE tip of Cuba. Cuban radar is not of the best quality, but can someone verify this? Maybe this is an attempt for the storm to reorganize. I believe Hati did a lot more damage to the vertical structure of Fay than it first appeared.
Edited by charlottefl (Sun Aug 17 2008 10:41 AM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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Quote:
It appears to be smack in the middle of what was left of the deep convection, directly over the SE tip of Cuba. Cuban radar is not of the best quality, but can someone verify this?
that semi-circle on the radar I believe is ground/cloud echo or similar phenomena because of proximity to the radar base
-------------------- Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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The storms strength early this morning is the best Fays been. 1003mb. I'm curious on the mb pressure now and also I would "LOVE" to see if recon can get in there.
Ok they update this as 20.5N and 78.6W pressure though @ 1003mb? maybe it is but recon is needed.
Edited by scottsvb (Sun Aug 17 2008 10:47 AM)
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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NHC has moved the track East on the 11 am advisory still waiting for the details
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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It's definately apparent today just how much a beating Fay took when it crossed Haiti, but the whole thing is kind of unusual, since Fay actually formed over land. The LLC never appears to have crossed the coast of Cuba as far as I can tell, yet the LLC is clearly being disrupted and having a very hard time getting reorganized.
Without recon, it's hard to tell exactly what is going on, and with the center so close to Cuba the recon can't go in. Frustrating situation... as far as the track changes go... Tampa has still not moved.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sun Aug 17 2008 10:52 AM)
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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
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FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
-------------------- Matthew '16, Hermine '16, Colin '16, Bonnie '10, Fay '08, Wilma, '05, Katrina '05, Jeanne '04, Frances '04, Charley '04 in FTM (drove behind it), Bertha '96, Bob '91, The Blizzard of '78 in NH
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Loc: Atlanta, GA
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The proximity to land has caused the storm to have inflow coming directly off the land. Thats why it has not strengthened a lot
-------------------- Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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