MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4541
Loc: Orlando, FL
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1PM Update
Fay's very good mid level organization combined with the wet areas of southern Florida and Lake Okeechobee have actually seen the pressure drop down to 986 mb, and windspeeds increase to 65MPH.
Wind gusts near hurricane force were reported at Moore Haven, FL (Western side of Lake Okeechobee), see Special Weather Statements
11AM Update
Fay is maintaining a rather good structure even over land, if/when it reemerges into the Atlantic it could once again strengthen, so those in Northern/Florida and Georgia may want to be aware of that. Irene of 1999 was a similar setup. Read Ed's Met Blog below for more information.
Original Update
It looks like Fay did not strengthen enough overnight and has made landfall in southwest Florida as a Tropical Storm. It will be rainy and breezy today throughout much of the southern half of Florida, also many short lived weaker tornadoes are possible (and are happening) as the outer bands of Fay move through.
We have a few discussion threads going on Fay, if you would like to discuss Fay's possible impact on Florida, check out here, if you want to let people what you think, or have a gut feeling, or want to shoot the breeze on Fay do that in the Fay forecast Lounge Want to let us know about conditions in your area, any closings, notices, or evacuations, let pass it along in this area. This is done to attempt more order during the flood of information (both good and bad) that will come over the next few days. The main comments are usually for discussion of what the storm is doing now, or will likely be short term.
Elsewhere in the tropics a wave in the central Atlantic (94L) may become a depression in the next few days.
Please pay attention to local media and officials in your area as the storm approaches. As of 2PM Fay is still a Tropical Storm. For state information, check out the local NWS advisories on the top of the main page and Floridadisaster.org.
HCW Level 3 Radar Recording of Fay
Mark Sudduth over at HurricaneTrack is out in Southwest Florida now, tracking the storm in his vehicle.[/url]
More to come soon...
General Fay Related Links:
Southwest Florida Webcams / hurricanecity
Florida Emergency Management / floridadisaster.org
Cuban Radar Flhurricane Recording of Cuban Mosaic radar
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Melbourne FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Full Caribbean Radar Composite
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR NWS Page
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Fay plotted on Google Map
Fay Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fay
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Fay
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fay
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fay (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Fay
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fay
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fay -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Wave 94L Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 94L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 94L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
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Robert
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 363
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Alright there is this weather station near naples. the pressure reports are sporadic but at 4:45am this pressure 29.06 984 milibars came in folowed by 5;00am of 29.26 990 Fay made landfall at 984millibars not 989 like said.
National data bouy center
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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Since midnight we've had about 2" of rain in Delray Beach, plus the 2" we had yesterday. Really no wind to speak of, maybe 15 mph tops so far. There were tornados around 1:30 AM in Wellington; thankfully only minor damage. When a band comes through we get heavy rain for 5-10 minutes then drizzle.
They say lower Palm Beach County will see improving weather this afternoon.
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Tropicbird
Registered User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 8
Loc: near Homestead, FL
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It seems unusual for a storm to drop 14 mb (from 1002 to 988) and not gain in wind strength. Anybody know why this was the case with Fay? The banding on radar looks very organized this morning; I was surprised to wake up and see that she never made it to hurricane status overnight.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
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It is a few hours after landfall and yet Fay looks about as strong as it ever has. Land effects will eventually take their toll, but it should hang together pretty well for awhile considering that it seems to have established an inner core. Fay could be around for several more days... but in exactly what form depends on the amount of time (if any) it ends up back over water. The forecast continues to be unusually difficult.
Anyone to the east of Fay's track should stay alert to the tornado threat, especially if there is any sort of daytime heating to bump up the available instability.
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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 94
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In Ft. Myers here.. we've had a lot of rain, drainage ditches are all full here, also winds have been steady around 30 with gusts in the 50's.. Fay does look as good as she's ever looked , but circulation centers tend to tighten up making landfall, at least temporarily.
Hurricane (Port Charlotte- NE Eyewall)
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Ho Hum.
Another day of completely different Fay forecast models.
But THC is trying to move Fay over Apalachicola.
CMC most accurate model to date.
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Since Fay has come ashore the center has the best presentation yet:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Question: If Fay hangs out over Lake Ockachobee (sp)
can it restrengthen?
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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Quote:
Since Fay has come ashore the center has the best presentation yet:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Question: If Fay hangs out over Lake Ockachobee (sp)
can it restrengthen?
I was wondering the same thing myself. Local Radar shows a very good presentation of Fay. The center is able to be seen. Can she restrengthen>?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Quote:
Question: If Fay hangs out over Lake Ockachobee (sp)
can it restrengthen?
Not a large nor deep enough body of water for that - too much land around it, too.
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Michael
PWS
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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 148
Loc: Manchester, NH
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Okay another question then,
If she goes to the Atlantic, then can she have a chance at regaining strength?
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Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
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This is the best she has "looked" yet.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=mlb&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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mcgowanmc
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 96
Loc: NW ARKANSAS
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Fay will stall around Orlando.
Then turn to the West.
alot of water will be dropped East and north as it does this.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008/clark6latest.png
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Depends how far into the Atlantic and for how long. I wouldn't expect very much restrengthening though.
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Michael
PWS
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
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That depends on how long Fay stays over land before/if she makes it into the Atlantic.
Her presentation on radar is amazing for being over land, I have to agree. Before I was seeing a more east than north movement but in the last hour, I have detected an almost due north movement. What does that mean? It means that more of the northern counties will be affected by Fay. It will be interesting to see the 11am update. The north movement could just be part of her NNE course. Time will tell.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
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Agreed, circulation centers do most times tighten up shortly after landfall for a short time. But you got to admit this storm looks very organized at this point and in fact the last frame on Vis Sat loop almost shows an "eye" trying to form.
Flat lands of FL, the everglades...again systems do not deteriorate there as much as other land masses. Hopefully wil not make it too far out into atlantic, with good inner core, better enviromental conditions would not need to be over water long to see some re-intensification. Time will tell.
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Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Mon
Posts: 66
Loc:
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It does appear that there is a little more move to the north. This was predicted, it may be just a little earlier.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=mlb&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4541
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Fay looks to be doing something similar to what Irene in 1999 did, which was weaken, but maintain its structure (across the state causing problems on the east coast. In fact the 's latest discussion indicates it may restrengthen a bit when it gets over the Atlantic, or stall at or just off the coastline of the East coast before heading back into Land in northern Florida. Fay's strong mid level circulation (which it's had for a while), is probably causing the pressure to even drop a bit.
What it likely means is Central Florida will be dealing with a TON of rain.
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Actually Mike pressure is down 2mlb from 8am
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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I'm looking at the VIS sat and am noticing huge blobs of convection firing off shore due east of lake 'O' (I dont spell well thus abbreviated). Could this tug the center more in that direction? Its an impressive blowup
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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