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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing heavy training rain with isolated tornadoes also possible today in S TX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 351 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1405 (Michael) Major: 1405 (Michael)
 


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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Fay Floods North Florida
      #82612 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:13 AM

1 PM 23 August Update
Tropical Storm Fay, now located near Panama City, FL, is producing torrential rains across southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend region this afternoon, with flood warnings up covering an estimated 400,000 people across the region. Rainfall rates of 4-6"/hr are common within its highly efficient rainfall bands, producing running storm total accumulations over 16" in Monticello, FL as of noon today. This activity will slowly slide westward with time, impacting Tallahassee and points further west. As it was in Jacksonville and Melbourne, this is a high impact dangerous flooding situation and travel is not recommended across the region. Stay tuned to your local NWS office, the NHC, and local emergency management agencies for all of the latest, including road closures and evacuations.

9PM 21 August Update
Fay has moved inland, and is still moving generally westward very very slowly, dumping flooding rains on central Florida, it will likely last most of Tomorrow as well for some areas in Central Florida. The center still is over northern Volusia and Flagler Counties.

In other news, a new wave in the east Atlantic, (95L) is also being watched, along with 94L, which will enter a better area for development soon. So there will be more tropical weather to watch after Fay.



Forecast Lounges for Fay, 94l and 95L

Original Update
Tropical Storm Fay remains offshore this morning, stationary, pumping in the rain and wind to East Central Florida.

Incredible amounts of rain in Brevard, steady winds along the coast in Volusia, with more rain coming.

Strength wise it looks like Fay is holding steady at 60MPH/994mb because of the large size of the center, it is unlikely it will gain much if any strength. It will eventually move generally westward. On satellite, Fay looks a bit ragged, but the big story with Fay is the incredible amounts of rainfall.

Stay dry!

We have a few discussion threads going on Fay, if you would like to discuss Fay's possible impact on Florida, check out here, if you want to let people what you think, or have a gut feeling, or want to shoot the breeze on Fay do that in the Fay forecast Lounge Want to let us know about conditions in your area, any closings, notices, or evacuations, let pass it along in this area. This is done to attempt more order during the flood of information (both good and bad) that will come over the next few days. The main comments are usually for discussion of what the storm is doing now, or will likely be short term.

Elsewhere in the tropics a wave in the central Atlantic (94L) may become a depression in the next few days, but it has become less likely.


Please pay attention to local media and officials in your area as the storm approaches. As of 2PM Fay is still a Tropical Storm. For state information, check out the local NWS advisories on the top of the main page and Floridadisaster.org.

HCW Level 3 Radar Recording of Fay

Mark Sudduth over at HurricaneTrack is out in Southwest Florida now, tracking the storm in his vehicle.[/url]

More to come soon...

General Fay Related Links:

Southwest Florida Webcams / hurricanecity


Florida Emergency Management / floridadisaster.org

Cuban Radar Flhurricane Recording of Cuban Mosaic radar

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Melbourne FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Jacksonville FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)


Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Fay plotted on Google Map

Fay Event Related Links


float6latest.gif stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fay
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fay


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fay (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fay (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Fay

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fay
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fay -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Wave 94L Event Related Links


float7latest.gif stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 94L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Wave 95L Event Related Links


float8latest.gif stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 95L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Edited by Clark (Sat Aug 23 2008 01:19 PM)


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #82616 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:28 AM

Is this possible? It looks to me as though she is becoming better organized with a better signature on both satelitte and radar. I still see no movement of any significance. Also. Am I seeing that the "wall" may be trying to tighten up a bit?

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kromdog
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #82617 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:29 AM

I went to bed and looked at the radar. I woke up, hit refresh and guess what? IT LOOKS LIKE THE SAME RADAR AS WHEN I WENT TO BED!!!!!!

I think Fay is going to be with us FOREVER!


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SeaMule
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 64
Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
heading wsw soon [Re: MikeC]
      #82618 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:42 AM

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.gif


You can see from the water vapor loop the high pressure starting to "push" Fay from the NE side of her.

and from Crown Weather...the following:

Based on the overall synoptic pattern, I think Fay will emerge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the day on Friday and then track west or west-northwest across the northern Gulf of Mexico about 60 to 90 miles offshore. So far it seems that the European model has done the best overall with the track of Fay, therefore, I am putting some credence in its forecast. So, ultimately, Fay may make another landfall on the Alabama or Mississippi coastline on Sunday night or early Monday.

The environment is expected to remain favorable for redevelopment over the northern Gulf of Mexico and it is possible for Fay to intensify to at least a moderate to strong tropical storm and possibly a hurricane if Fay tracks across the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. So, folks over the northern GulfCoast should keep close tabs on the track of Fay over the next few days...


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Lklnd_Wtchr
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82619 - Thu Aug 21 2008 10:00 AM

It is getting to look better organized. Per the location she had been in since yesterday evening has not changed at all. With her being stationary in the Atlantic at this time is there anyway she can get up to hurricane strength before hitting FL again. Regardless of the power of the storm she is still a dangerous one.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82620 - Thu Aug 21 2008 10:01 AM

Fay has steering currents that have been subborn to say the least. I no longer expect Fay to be south of Crystal River, The ridge building north of her is just not far enough south and is more less seting up ENE-WNW by tonight. This should cause her to move W-WNW across the state. Due to the ridge building in further north, Fay has wobbled around on a general stop and go nw direction over the past 24hrs and is now about .5dg further north before her W movement.
I really dont know what else to say, but I expected her to be moving inland very soon, my time frame was 9am-12pm around 29.1N, I may only be off by .1-.3 but I still didnt expect a NW movement into a building ridge,especially when she first stalled out around 28.9N (last night). The ridging set up along the lines of the GFS-Ukmet instead of the GFS-ECMWF.
The main issue with Fay is the Rainfall! Period!, Wind is really not much of a factor unless you live near the center of landfall and in the squalls. I do expect some good feeder bands coming in from the gulf once Fay crosses west of 82W and 29.5N later tonight to set up from Tampa Bay north. These bands could produce gusts up to 40-50mph and sparadic tornados, especially from Pasco county north. Exact bands on where they set up is like trying to predict a lake effect snow squall band on who will get 6-10 inches while 5 miles away you get less than 2".


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Addicted2Cane
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82622 - Thu Aug 21 2008 10:44 AM

Does anyone have an idea of what the coastal flood potential might be, if any, along the west FL gulf coast south of where the storm passes. Say in the lower lying areas of the big bend?

Thanks


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Ed in Va
Weather Master


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Posts: 489
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Addicted2Cane]
      #82623 - Thu Aug 21 2008 10:55 AM

Avila in the 11:00 discussion is clearly at wit's end with Fay:

Steering currents have remained very light...consequently Fay has
barely moved since yesterday. Global models insist on the
development of a high pressure system north of Fay. This pattern
should force the cyclone to move slowly toward the west-northwest
or west...a motion we have been forecasting but has not materialized
yet. Nevertheless...the developing steering pattern gives ME no
option but to forecast a turn to the left which should begin soon.
This is consistent with all global models and track guidance.

Fay is starting to remind me of "Twister," an absurd movie with horrible met advice...the tornado remains in the same location all during one night...kind of 'stalled" like Fay.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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wpath
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1
Loc: Clermont, FL
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82624 - Thu Aug 21 2008 10:55 AM

Looking at Melbourne radar, it appears that in the past hour the COC has begun to move WNW slightly. Or is the COC just expanding west from where it has been overnight? Is this the beginning of her move westward?

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WeatherNut
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82626 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:02 AM

I have noticed today that the outflow to the north has become more circular and not as flat on top. Could we end up with more of a North component to future movement?

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: WeatherNut]
      #82627 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:07 AM

Well I'm glad the NHC is along the same mindset as me, I figured it would of turned by now or at least not move NW thru this morning (even though they been saying stationary). NHC says almost the same thing. Puzzled we are by this ridge forcasted and shown to be building N of her. I see the ridge is NNE of FAY and building westward but further north of FAY . If the ridging was further south then she would of turned quicker.

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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 94
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: WeatherNut]
      #82628 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:08 AM

The COC has become so wide if Fay does indeed begin moving W or S of due West then the Western edge of the circulation will be reaching the Gulf coast as the Eastern edge is leaving the Atlantic, crazy! Beginning to remind me of Frances, just a little weaker and a little further north.

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metwannabe
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 92
Loc: NC
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82629 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:33 AM

It's like a soap opera, go away for a few days come back, same characters, same story line!!

According to mods and the NHC track last pm, shouldn't Fay have started moving by now? I see the high is building to the north and she will most likely at some point start moving, but is there any remote possibility that the high fails to move her west?

(BTW...don't know if site was down or if it was my server but I was not able gain access for a couple hours, so glad its back, its like trying to start my day without coffee...)

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: charlottefl]
      #82630 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:39 AM

Her coc expanded 38 miles over the past 2 hours and that is giving us a false sense that shes moving west and north when she is still stationary. I am ready for her to start moving so I will know if and when I will have to board up down here at Gulfshores,AL Good luck to all that are the path of this crazy chick

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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charlottefl
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Mon
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: HCW]
      #82631 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:43 AM

The Training effect is starting to set up with feeder bands moving in off the Gulf here in Ft. Myers. Drainage ditches are all full and my lake at my apt complex is starting to spill over into the grass. Lots of rain.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: charlottefl]
      #82632 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:45 AM

her center of circulation will consolidate when she moves over land....( that dont mean she is getting better organized though) . When she does move inland doing this, she will weaken.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82633 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:53 AM

Fay Making Landfall Just south of near Flagler Beach in the next 10-20min and begining to move more west @ 5mph. 29.4N 81W

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angelswatch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Fri
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Loc: FL
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82634 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:02 PM

It looks like a definite eye is forming on the visible loop link is this correct?

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kromdog
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82637 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:15 PM

I noticed this also. It does appear to be a little more west at this point. But it may be to early to tell if this will maintain.

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scottsvb
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82638 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:21 PM

Fay is like moving @ a turtles pace. Move then stop then move then stop. Its elongated LLC is from the beaches of Flagler-Ormond beach-5 miles offshore. The midlevel circulation is clearly larger on Radar and Visible imagry.

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