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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing heavy training rain with isolated tornadoes also possible today in S TX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 336 (Nicholas) , Major: 351 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1405 (Michael) Major: 1405 (Michael)
 


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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Fay Floods North Florida
      #82612 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:13 AM

1 PM 23 August Update
Tropical Storm Fay, now located near Panama City, FL, is producing torrential rains across southwest Georgia and the Florida Big Bend region this afternoon, with flood warnings up covering an estimated 400,000 people across the region. Rainfall rates of 4-6"/hr are common within its highly efficient rainfall bands, producing running storm total accumulations over 16" in Monticello, FL as of noon today. This activity will slowly slide westward with time, impacting Tallahassee and points further west. As it was in Jacksonville and Melbourne, this is a high impact dangerous flooding situation and travel is not recommended across the region. Stay tuned to your local NWS office, the NHC, and local emergency management agencies for all of the latest, including road closures and evacuations.

9PM 21 August Update
Fay has moved inland, and is still moving generally westward very very slowly, dumping flooding rains on central Florida, it will likely last most of Tomorrow as well for some areas in Central Florida. The center still is over northern Volusia and Flagler Counties.

In other news, a new wave in the east Atlantic, (95L) is also being watched, along with 94L, which will enter a better area for development soon. So there will be more tropical weather to watch after Fay.



Forecast Lounges for Fay, 94l and 95L

Original Update
Tropical Storm Fay remains offshore this morning, stationary, pumping in the rain and wind to East Central Florida.

Incredible amounts of rain in Brevard, steady winds along the coast in Volusia, with more rain coming.

Strength wise it looks like Fay is holding steady at 60MPH/994mb because of the large size of the center, it is unlikely it will gain much if any strength. It will eventually move generally westward. On satellite, Fay looks a bit ragged, but the big story with Fay is the incredible amounts of rainfall.

Stay dry!

We have a few discussion threads going on Fay, if you would like to discuss Fay's possible impact on Florida, check out here, if you want to let people what you think, or have a gut feeling, or want to shoot the breeze on Fay do that in the Fay forecast Lounge Want to let us know about conditions in your area, any closings, notices, or evacuations, let pass it along in this area. This is done to attempt more order during the flood of information (both good and bad) that will come over the next few days. The main comments are usually for discussion of what the storm is doing now, or will likely be short term.

Elsewhere in the tropics a wave in the central Atlantic (94L) may become a depression in the next few days, but it has become less likely.


Please pay attention to local media and officials in your area as the storm approaches. As of 2PM Fay is still a Tropical Storm. For state information, check out the local NWS advisories on the top of the main page and Floridadisaster.org.

HCW Level 3 Radar Recording of Fay

Mark Sudduth over at HurricaneTrack is out in Southwest Florida now, tracking the storm in his vehicle.[/url]

More to come soon...

General Fay Related Links:

Southwest Florida Webcams / hurricanecity


Florida Emergency Management / floridadisaster.org

Cuban Radar Flhurricane Recording of Cuban Mosaic radar

Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Miami FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Melbourne FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Jacksonville FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)


Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay


Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar)
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes
Fay plotted on Google Map

Fay Event Related Links


float6latest.gif stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Fay
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Fay


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Fay (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Fay (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Fay

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Fay
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Fay -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Wave 94L Event Related Links


float7latest.gif stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 94L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Wave 95L Event Related Links


float8latest.gif stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 95L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Edited by Clark (Sat Aug 23 2008 01:19 PM)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #82616 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:28 AM

Is this possible? It looks to me as though she is becoming better organized with a better signature on both satelitte and radar. I still see no movement of any significance. Also. Am I seeing that the "wall" may be trying to tighten up a bit?

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kromdog
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #82617 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:29 AM

I went to bed and looked at the radar. I woke up, hit refresh and guess what? IT LOOKS LIKE THE SAME RADAR AS WHEN I WENT TO BED!!!!!!

I think Fay is going to be with us FOREVER!


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SeaMule
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Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
heading wsw soon [Re: MikeC]
      #82618 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:42 AM

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.gif


You can see from the water vapor loop the high pressure starting to "push" Fay from the NE side of her.

and from Crown Weather...the following:

Based on the overall synoptic pattern, I think Fay will emerge into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the day on Friday and then track west or west-northwest across the northern Gulf of Mexico about 60 to 90 miles offshore. So far it seems that the European model has done the best overall with the track of Fay, therefore, I am putting some credence in its forecast. So, ultimately, Fay may make another landfall on the Alabama or Mississippi coastline on Sunday night or early Monday.

The environment is expected to remain favorable for redevelopment over the northern Gulf of Mexico and it is possible for Fay to intensify to at least a moderate to strong tropical storm and possibly a hurricane if Fay tracks across the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. So, folks over the northern GulfCoast should keep close tabs on the track of Fay over the next few days...


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Lklnd_Wtchr
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82619 - Thu Aug 21 2008 10:00 AM

It is getting to look better organized. Per the location she had been in since yesterday evening has not changed at all. With her being stationary in the Atlantic at this time is there anyway she can get up to hurricane strength before hitting FL again. Regardless of the power of the storm she is still a dangerous one.

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scottsvb
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82620 - Thu Aug 21 2008 10:01 AM

Fay has steering currents that have been subborn to say the least. I no longer expect Fay to be south of Crystal River, The ridge building north of her is just not far enough south and is more less seting up ENE-WNW by tonight. This should cause her to move W-WNW across the state. Due to the ridge building in further north, Fay has wobbled around on a general stop and go nw direction over the past 24hrs and is now about .5dg further north before her W movement.
I really dont know what else to say, but I expected her to be moving inland very soon, my time frame was 9am-12pm around 29.1N, I may only be off by .1-.3 but I still didnt expect a NW movement into a building ridge,especially when she first stalled out around 28.9N (last night). The ridging set up along the lines of the GFS-Ukmet instead of the GFS-ECMWF.
The main issue with Fay is the Rainfall! Period!, Wind is really not much of a factor unless you live near the center of landfall and in the squalls. I do expect some good feeder bands coming in from the gulf once Fay crosses west of 82W and 29.5N later tonight to set up from Tampa Bay north. These bands could produce gusts up to 40-50mph and sparadic tornados, especially from Pasco county north. Exact bands on where they set up is like trying to predict a lake effect snow squall band on who will get 6-10 inches while 5 miles away you get less than 2".


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Addicted2Cane
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82622 - Thu Aug 21 2008 10:44 AM

Does anyone have an idea of what the coastal flood potential might be, if any, along the west FL gulf coast south of where the storm passes. Say in the lower lying areas of the big bend?

Thanks


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Ed in Va
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Addicted2Cane]
      #82623 - Thu Aug 21 2008 10:55 AM

Avila in the 11:00 discussion is clearly at wit's end with Fay:

Steering currents have remained very light...consequently Fay has
barely moved since yesterday. Global models insist on the
development of a high pressure system north of Fay. This pattern
should force the cyclone to move slowly toward the west-northwest
or west...a motion we have been forecasting but has not materialized
yet. Nevertheless...the developing steering pattern gives ME no
option but to forecast a turn to the left which should begin soon.
This is consistent with all global models and track guidance.

Fay is starting to remind me of "Twister," an absurd movie with horrible met advice...the tornado remains in the same location all during one night...kind of 'stalled" like Fay.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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wpath
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Loc: Clermont, FL
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82624 - Thu Aug 21 2008 10:55 AM

Looking at Melbourne radar, it appears that in the past hour the COC has begun to move WNW slightly. Or is the COC just expanding west from where it has been overnight? Is this the beginning of her move westward?

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WeatherNut
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82626 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:02 AM

I have noticed today that the outflow to the north has become more circular and not as flat on top. Could we end up with more of a North component to future movement?

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: WeatherNut]
      #82627 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:07 AM

Well I'm glad the NHC is along the same mindset as me, I figured it would of turned by now or at least not move NW thru this morning (even though they been saying stationary). NHC says almost the same thing. Puzzled we are by this ridge forcasted and shown to be building N of her. I see the ridge is NNE of FAY and building westward but further north of FAY . If the ridging was further south then she would of turned quicker.

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charlottefl
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: WeatherNut]
      #82628 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:08 AM

The COC has become so wide if Fay does indeed begin moving W or S of due West then the Western edge of the circulation will be reaching the Gulf coast as the Eastern edge is leaving the Atlantic, crazy! Beginning to remind me of Frances, just a little weaker and a little further north.

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metwannabe
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82629 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:33 AM

It's like a soap opera, go away for a few days come back, same characters, same story line!!

According to mods and the NHC track last pm, shouldn't Fay have started moving by now? I see the high is building to the north and she will most likely at some point start moving, but is there any remote possibility that the high fails to move her west?

(BTW...don't know if site was down or if it was my server but I was not able gain access for a couple hours, so glad its back, its like trying to start my day without coffee...)

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


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HCW
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: charlottefl]
      #82630 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:39 AM

Her coc expanded 38 miles over the past 2 hours and that is giving us a false sense that shes moving west and north when she is still stationary. I am ready for her to start moving so I will know if and when I will have to board up down here at Gulfshores,AL Good luck to all that are the path of this crazy chick

--------------------
Over 4,000 members and now on a new server

http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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charlottefl
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: HCW]
      #82631 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:43 AM

The Training effect is starting to set up with feeder bands moving in off the Gulf here in Ft. Myers. Drainage ditches are all full and my lake at my apt complex is starting to spill over into the grass. Lots of rain.

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scottsvb
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: charlottefl]
      #82632 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:45 AM

her center of circulation will consolidate when she moves over land....( that dont mean she is getting better organized though) . When she does move inland doing this, she will weaken.

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scottsvb
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82633 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:53 AM

Fay Making Landfall Just south of near Flagler Beach in the next 10-20min and begining to move more west @ 5mph. 29.4N 81W

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angelswatch
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82634 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:02 PM

It looks like a definite eye is forming on the visible loop link is this correct?

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kromdog
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82637 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:15 PM

I noticed this also. It does appear to be a little more west at this point. But it may be to early to tell if this will maintain.

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scottsvb
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82638 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:21 PM

Fay is like moving @ a turtles pace. Move then stop then move then stop. Its elongated LLC is from the beaches of Flagler-Ormond beach-5 miles offshore. The midlevel circulation is clearly larger on Radar and Visible imagry.

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Artsy Fartsy
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Loc: Fernandina Beach, Florida
Quick Update from Fernandina [Re: scottsvb]
      #82639 - Thu Aug 21 2008 12:34 PM

Conditions are beginning to really deteriorate here in the extreme northeast area of Florida. The winds are really beginning to blow and the rain is getting heavy. It had been mostly quiet all morning long, just a few wind gusts of about 20-25 mph, now the gust are over 30mph.

Basically I am seeing what I was expecting last evening. Looking at the radar it looks as though this will be the tune for the rest of the day here. I'll update if conditions drastically change.

-Artsy Fartsy


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: scottsvb]
      #82644 - Thu Aug 21 2008 01:33 PM

We just had a feeeder band go through Delray Beach. It lasted 5 minutes, but heavy rain and 15 mph winds.

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pcola
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #82647 - Thu Aug 21 2008 03:18 PM

well it looks like the very center of the circulation just came ashore just north of Daytona..it seems that the center is located there within the large area of non-convection...if the radar image is correct, Fay has begun a trek almost due west...it will be interesting to see if it keeps that heading..which will ceryainly mean heavy rain continuing with the storm towards the panhandle, and unfortunately, the Gulf Coast as most models stall Fay near the AL -MS border Monday...

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Lee-Delray
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: pcola]
      #82648 - Thu Aug 21 2008 03:32 PM

Question: If Fay goes over the Gulf and re-enters Florida is that considred a 4th Florida hit?

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Ed in Va
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: pcola]
      #82650 - Thu Aug 21 2008 03:36 PM

Compare with her recent history, Fay is moving at almost breakneck speed across FL Seems like the reentry into the Gulf might be sooner than expected, which would lead to less weakening over land.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #82651 - Thu Aug 21 2008 03:38 PM

if it has storm status..yes..that would be 4...and amazingly..it could be 5..Fay could reenter the Gulf south of St Marks and hit land at Cape San Blas..then go back to the Gulf before coming ashore in the western panhandle..long shot I know, but would be very interesting...It seems Fay is Taking a vacation in Florida and it going to make sure it visits every county

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Davida G
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #82652 - Thu Aug 21 2008 03:47 PM

It's gone rather quite here in Flaglar Estates just near Hastings FL. We are under the COC and the rain and wind have slacked off. Last night the rain was really steady and the drainage canals and ditches out here are almost full to overflowing so instead of getting stranded at work away from home we elected to hang out here. Flaglar Estates floods for any excuse though I am expecting when the other side of this storm gets here there will be some major flooding in the area. We have a pinetree just off the southern property edge that looks like it is going down soon. It had started to crack about 2 and a half feet up and is listing about 50 to 60 degree angle. But it looks like it will fall in the wooded lot next door. The winds are very erratic here, sometimes from the NE sometimes not. Once the store finally starts moving west and the winds pick up I am expecting it to come down hard.

Edited by Davida G (Thu Aug 21 2008 03:48 PM)


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StrmTrckrMiami
Weather Guru


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Loc: Manchester, NH
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Davida G]
      #82653 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:07 PM

Right now, Fort Myers is getting nailed with Fay's feeder bands. Radar shows heavy bands of rain and lightning, which is what we are currently experiencing. We have the wind and rain here also. Looks as though Fay just does not want to go away. I know now that I don't like tropical storms, and I can only imagine what a Hurricane would do. Fay, if your listening Go AWAY!

--------------------


Tracking Storms Since 2004
Miami, Cocoa, Fort Myers and Jacksonville
Currently Reside in New England


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doug
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: pcola]
      #82654 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:11 PM

Well Fay is definitely on the move. My guess is due west at about 10mph just based on radar comparison over the last 4-5 hours. It is beginning to grab Gulf moisture and develop some feeders: one major feeder is entering over Lee County; a secondary is over Sarasota County and yet another near Tampa. I would not expect loss of storm status due to the transition into the GOM. Unfortunately I can foresee redevelopment of precipitation to the south of the COC and it will drag that large body of rain to its east along with it, so the portions of the peninsula already floating will get more and portions of the state not impacted with too much rain yet may yet some decent rain as Fay moves further to the west. The NHC continues to remind us the environment is favorable for reorganization when it gets into the GOM as long as the land interaction lessens. If the track is more to the due west as I suspect the chances of that increase.

--------------------
doug


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engicedave
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: doug]
      #82655 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:16 PM

My imagination or does she look like she's sagging a bit southward on the JAX radar?

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pcola
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: engicedave]
      #82656 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:28 PM

nobody is in the forecast lounge so I will post here...the ECMWF still has Fay going west southwest and stalling south of Pensacola/Mobile, then heading north as a hurricane....it is just one model but it has not changed for the last 5 runs, and the globals have been shifting south...no matter what she will still be able to tap the Gulf moisture and bring heavy rain..very humid here in Pensacola today so the water is there

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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SeaMule
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Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
actual heading is more wsw.... [Re: engicedave]
      #82657 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:31 PM

Since they started predicting and plotting the track of the hurricane...has anyone notice they have ALWAYS been right of the forecast track? The hurricane is headed WSW...albeit slowly...and on that track and speed....it will have PLENTY of time to strengthen if it stays in that general direction for a coupla days.

I would NOT be a bit suprised if we have a major event on our hands. by the time FAY reaches the GOM....she will have not weakened much...and will be prime for strengthening.

Not sure what the forecast track long term is...but one thing for sure....we will have a hurricane...in the GOM...in August...weak steering currents.....warm waters...perfect climactic conditions...

not good


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RickR
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: pcola]
      #82658 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:32 PM

Does anyone have a good link to accurate rainfall amounts around Central Florida? The mets are obviously talking about the amounts in Brevard but I was wondering what they are elsewhere.

Thanks in advance


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Wxwatcher2
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: pcola]
      #82659 - Thu Aug 21 2008 04:34 PM

I'm in Northern Orange County and at around 4:15pm we had the heaviest band of wind and rain to date come through.
Current conditions are heavy rain and gusts to approximately 40mph.
I'm also noting the movement of the Center of Fay almost due North of my location by about 40miles.

I'm going to check the barometer to see what it's doing. I'm sure it's dropping right now.


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Mpabner
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: engicedave]
      #82661 - Thu Aug 21 2008 05:15 PM

I agree. It does appear that the movement is wsw. May be just an elongation of the COC, though.

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kromdog
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Mpabner]
      #82665 - Thu Aug 21 2008 05:56 PM

It may be a wobble, but it sure does look like wsw to me also.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=jax&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes


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pcola
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82666 - Thu Aug 21 2008 06:02 PM

i do not see a wsw movement..just west....the center is moving very slowly....still very near where it came ashore, almost slowing again...the models will be interesting

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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wxman007
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82667 - Thu Aug 21 2008 06:03 PM

For anyone who might be interested, I am doing a 30 min weather webcast on WJHG.com on Tropical Storm Fay starting at 7pm central...feel free to join us...look for the streaming video link on the upper left hand side.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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kromdog
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: wxman007]
      #82668 - Thu Aug 21 2008 06:07 PM

Thanks Jason!!

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: kromdog]
      #82670 - Thu Aug 21 2008 06:20 PM

We have had a suprising amount of wind and rain here in southwest Seminole county. Schools are closed tomorrow. Does anyone have a feel on just how bad we will be pounded? It looks to me as if she goes more on a westerly course, we will just stay in the main band of wind and rain for quite some time.

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StormHound
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #82671 - Thu Aug 21 2008 07:05 PM

Sorry for the one liner, but after watching streaming video for five minutes sans JK, I thought I'd remind everyone that it is 7pm CENTRAL time.

--------------------
Storm Hound
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LadyStorm
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #82672 - Thu Aug 21 2008 07:18 PM

We 60 MPH this AM. Now we have had sustained winds here at Ormond Beach of 3 MPH According to Ormond Beach Airport radar.

--------------------
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thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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allan
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: LadyStorm]
      #82674 - Thu Aug 21 2008 08:06 PM

Fay sure does love Florida. I have been working today but it was a nice cloudy day, so business was good. The eye came in around 11 a.m. and looks to be moving out and now the worst of Fay has yet to come which is puzzling people here. There were people that told me that the storm is over, what they didn't know was that the eye was large and moving slow. Think they went ahead and canceled schools once again due to rain and wind and possible tornadoes as the eastern part of Fay starts in a few hours. Got my generator ready, had some power flicking on and off last night. Lots of people in Palm Coast and Flagler Beach did in fact lose power, some trees and power lines down, and fences in my area were destroyed. Now I looked at the 8 p.m. advisory and saw that Fays pressure dropped which indicates that it's somehow strengthening, just doesn't want to quit lol. Hopefully it will weaken soon and not strengthen on land like it did in South Florida. I'll keep you all updated on the conditions here as good as I can.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Thu Aug 21 2008 08:11 PM)


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engicedave
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: allan]
      #82675 - Thu Aug 21 2008 08:13 PM

Looking at the JAX radar, I think it stalled again

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: engicedave]
      #82676 - Thu Aug 21 2008 08:16 PM

My eyes are playing tricks. Melbourne radar makes it look like the eye is contracting AND, she jogged east just a tad.

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engicedave
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #82678 - Thu Aug 21 2008 08:27 PM

I cannot disagree, Dan
It looks the same to me.
Earlier it looked as if it was sliding WSW and now it seems to have stalled


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pcola
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #82679 - Thu Aug 21 2008 08:28 PM

the large coc is filling in, which makes the actual true coc more visible..the storm is moving at 2 mph, but the models 18Z run all take Fay along the coast of the panhandle, some as a strong tropical storm, others as a depression....then it stalls...lots of rain no matter what it does

Fay seems to be just due west of Daytona..a west motion will keep it in the gulf longer, and risk intensification

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Thu Aug 21 2008 08:31 PM)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: pcola]
      #82680 - Thu Aug 21 2008 08:51 PM

I see. I think you mean the mid-level CoC is filling in, making the low-level CoC more apparent.

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LoisCane
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: pcola]
      #82682 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:27 PM

seems to be moving faster now, maybe its an illusion
she is hard to get a handle on from watching radar because of her odd shape and wide center feature that changes shape and direction often, the storm moves west but it looks as if it is changing as it opens, shuts, blinks..

seriously, you just have to watch to be sure what will happen next

how fast will it take for her to cross florida at the place she is with an extrapolated track?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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kromdog
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #82683 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:29 PM

Tampa has been "Golden" in all of this. We missed Fay coming in from the south and it looks like she will exit the state to our north. We have not recieved even a half inch of rain to this point. I am sure there are some showers to come but we were lucky again!

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kromdog
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: LoisCane]
      #82684 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:38 PM

I know this sounds crazy, but it looks like the COC is back over Daytona! She does not want to leave the East Coast!

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metwannabe
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #82685 - Thu Aug 21 2008 09:50 PM

You can make out the coc of circulation a little better from the JAX Radar. The Melbourne radar not really picking up coc. It appears the center is just nw of Daytona and just barely sw of palm coast drifting ever so slowly to the west.

(so hard to tell attm, if she has started a drift east, even longer days ahead)

--------------------
Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)


Edited by metwannabe (Thu Aug 21 2008 09:57 PM)


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Davida G
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #82687 - Thu Aug 21 2008 10:56 PM

This has been a deceptively quiet afternoon and evening here in the southwest corner of St. John county. I was just explaining to our roommate that in fact, no the storm is not OVER yet, it just decided to camp out. I swear this is just the storm never wont ends!

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vineyardsaker
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Davida G]
      #82688 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:03 PM

If the COC is over Daytona, then the south end of the eyewall is over New Smyrna. We are getting soaked and there are constant wind gusts. Not that we can complain as Brevard county has been getting this for three days whereas we have been getting it only since this afternoon as we spent the past three days mostly in the middle of the COC. We do now also have flash flood warnings and it does not look like things will be getting better anytime soon.

I am looking at a doppler radar of the rain bands and I am wondering:

Could it be that Fay is getting energy and moisture from the Atlantic AND the Gulf at the same time?!

BTW - I just checked the NHC track forecast: Fay will likely make a 4th landfall in Florida.


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Hugh
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #82689 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:28 PM

Well, I am now under a Tropical Storm Watch, almost... it's hairy, at least. The watch goes to Destin, and I'm almost due north of Destin, although the NWS Mobile site does not mention the watch for my area. The local forecast DOES call for 35mph winds beginning Saturday and into Saturday night, and the official NHC forecast has Fay VERY near me (within .1 degree) at 7pm Saturday (CDT) as a 40mph storm. Obviously if she moves south of the forecast track and strengthens, that could mean more impact (due to a stronger storm) or even less (due to a further south track)... but I expect warnings and watches to continue to be shifted west as Fay moves in this direction.

Trivia question: Assuming Fay does move into the GOM again and head far enough west, it's increasingly likely that the ENTIRE state of Florida will ultimately have been placed under a tropical storm watch or warning (or hurricane watch/warning), for a single storm. Has this ever happened before? I believe as it stands now, the only area that has not already been placed under an alert during Fay's trek is the area west of Destin.. and that will likely change by Saturday.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Mozart
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #82690 - Thu Aug 21 2008 11:30 PM

Quote:



BTW - I just checked the NHC track forecast: Fay will likely make a 4th landfall in Florida.




Actually, if you take a look at the current NHC track, there's the possibility of not just a 4th landfall, but also a 5th. It would have to come in almost exactly where the track is now to make it work, but it's in play.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Mozart]
      #82692 - Fri Aug 22 2008 12:54 AM

Well... going out on a limb.. but i think the much waited movement has started to pick up steam a little... based on what i have looked at... i think Fay has gone somewhere of about 12-15 miles in the last 1-2... (her right side of coc is on the west side of I-95 now... so she's movin.. just slow)

what i am really interested in... my wx stix... haven't really seen the pressure fall in the last two days... sticking around 1011mb here.... in fact it had increased each day for the last three days... as soon as i see a steady drop then i know someone is on the way!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 22 2008 12:58 AM)


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DebbiePSL
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82693 - Fri Aug 22 2008 01:23 AM

I'm not really sure what is going on but here in Camden Co. Georgia over the past hour the winds have gotten worse.

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JoshuaK
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: DebbiePSL]
      #82695 - Fri Aug 22 2008 03:29 AM

2AM Advisory has Fay moving W at 5 mph. Radar images shows the center of the storm squarely in between Ocala and Gainsville, looks like she is about halfway across the state now. Would five landfalls at storm strength be a record?

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berrywr
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Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: JoshuaK]
      #82696 - Fri Aug 22 2008 04:39 AM

Latest track guidance continues to shift southward and westward and upper air continues to build ridge to Fay's north and I think everybody needs to start looking at the real possibility of a new love interest; New Orleans. If this guidance pans out and if Fay can re-develop an inner core we might have her as a hurricane if she stalls in the GOM. I saw nothing in the latest model guidance to believe there's a west-north-west track in her immediate future.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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kromdog
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: berrywr]
      #82698 - Fri Aug 22 2008 05:01 AM

I agree. Entering the GOM further south could be very interesting. If she stalls or slows.......

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Jumaduke
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: kromdog]
      #82699 - Fri Aug 22 2008 07:20 AM

What might be the effects for north central Florida once Fay's center is out over the GOM? We would be on the N/NE side of the storm at that point, which is historically the strongest side of a TS/Hurricane. Can we expect continual rain bands if she strengthens out there, or will a land component under the N/NE side mean that she won't be able to build up again?

--------------------
Go Gators!


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Jumaduke]
      #82701 - Fri Aug 22 2008 07:46 AM

A good bit of the Forecast depends on whether Fay moves over the GOM.
Right now Mobile NWS is forecasting up to 10 inches of rain based on the current inland / coastline forecast track.

A track over water would almost certainly change the amount of rain and possibly the wind speeds.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov


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pcola
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Jumaduke]
      #82702 - Fri Aug 22 2008 07:51 AM

the strongest part of the storm is the front right quadrant...on most hurricanes that is the n/ne side because most storm are heading south to north or close to it...Fay heading due west means areas northwest of the center would be the worst, but this is not a hurricane, and is a somewhat lopsided storm...expect rainbands to continue coming off the gulf as Fay heads west....well after the center passes..............amazingly, if Fay follows the NHC track, she will have made 5 landfalls in Florida.......wow, we may never see that again

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Fri Aug 22 2008 08:25 AM)


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lsutigerfan
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: berrywr]
      #82703 - Fri Aug 22 2008 09:49 AM

Quote:

Latest track guidance continues to shift southward and westward and upper air continues to build ridge to Fay's north and I think everybody needs to start looking at the real possibility of a new love interest; New Orleans. If this guidance pans out and if Fay can re-develop an inner core we might have her as a hurricane if she stalls in the GOM. I saw nothing in the latest model guidance to believe there's a west-north-west track in her immediate future.




I hope Fay does not come near La. Our local mets here are saying that there is only a 10-20% chance that the storm will continue to move due west and visit us. Do any of you see anything that may track this storm due west and come in around La. coastline?


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SeaMule
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: lsutigerfan]
      #82704 - Fri Aug 22 2008 10:01 AM

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/FAY.d1-merge.windzoom.html

The book isn't over on Fay...or should we say nightmare.....

who knows...at this point. But oh yeah...it could go to Lousiana.....


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: lsutigerfan]
      #82705 - Fri Aug 22 2008 10:04 AM

Current track guidance is mostly north of the New Orleans/ Baton Rouge area.
But with this storm who knows.

Here are two links that will update the latest model trends.
However, they are quite cluttered and hard to separate.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/index.htm


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redlevel
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: danielw]
      #82706 - Fri Aug 22 2008 10:20 AM

I live in Crystal River and was just wondering what the back side of fay will bring to our area? can anyone shed a little light on this

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mcgowanmc
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: danielw]
      #82709 - Fri Aug 22 2008 10:51 AM

I love that we'll be able to follow this all the way with nexrad.

Looks like Fay wants to come out in N Dixie County.

Which would then put it S of Pensacola.

Which would stall it in Lake Pontchartrain.

Moving extra tropical into Mississippi.

There. With a cherry on top. ;}


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doug
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: redlevel]
      #82716 - Fri Aug 22 2008 12:21 PM

Noted in recent radar images that Fay is exiting Dixie County. Also the number and intensity of feeders have increased. We had a doozy through here ( Ft. Myers) just a few minutes ago. Is this an indication of intensification? The western rain shield is expanding too it seems along with some fill in of lighter rain south and east. Looks pretty good actually for all its been through.

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: redlevel]
      #82717 - Fri Aug 22 2008 12:32 PM

Re: danielw

Southwesterly winds off the Gulf. Good moisture source and little resistance to the wind. Watch out for strong bands and squalls throughout Saturday. I'm expecting the same here in the Tampa Bay area.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

Edited by MichaelA (Fri Aug 22 2008 12:35 PM)


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SeaMule
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HEADING WSW....HALFWAY OFFSHORE [Re: doug]
      #82718 - Fri Aug 22 2008 12:37 PM

This has excellent convection wrapping around the entire storm. the pressures will drop quickly now that she is getting into the gulf...the forward speed is slow enough to get all the gusto out of the water around it...and the high pressure venting on top of her is uninhibited....

suprising to me that no one is posting that this has an awesome chance of making it to hurricane status...

August...GOM = ??

what inhibits this from developing into a major hurricane? I see nothing.....to block it.....


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vineyardsaker
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: lsutigerfan]
      #82720 - Fri Aug 22 2008 12:43 PM

Quote:

Do any of you see anything that may track this storm due west and come in around La. coastline?




With Fay being so slow AND so large I think you might want toask whether there is any reason for Fay *not* to come in around the Louisiana coastline. Judging by the fact that the latest NHC probability cone is beginning to look more like a circle I get the impression that the folks NHC do not see anything which would prevent Fay from doing just that. You probably should assume that Fay will affect New Orleans and start making preparation ASAP. My 2cts.

Also, most models seem to have Fay coming your way, check here

Good luck!

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #82721 - Fri Aug 22 2008 12:48 PM

The broad structure of fay (It went to this after exiting the eastern Florida coast) should keep Fay from organizing much if it gets back over the Gulf, it may some, but still just a Tropical Storm and rainmaker.

It would have to be over the Gulf an awful long time for it to regenerate a core that would allow rapid intensification, so I don't think that will happen. Even so, Fay should move inland well before New Orleans.



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Ed in Va
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: MikeC]
      #82723 - Fri Aug 22 2008 12:55 PM

You're probably right, but Fay is untested in terms of ability to strengthen. She has most of her life either over land or so close to it that she has never gotten a chance to develop fully. She most likely will still have these problems as she won't get far from land in the Gulf either. If she does and the predicted shear doesn't kill her, could be interesting.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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kromdog
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #82724 - Fri Aug 22 2008 01:11 PM

Duplicate post removed.

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 23 2008 10:52 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Lee-Delray]
      #82732 - Fri Aug 22 2008 02:14 PM

Just impressed at Fays overall cloud pattern. Fay this has been one interesting storm!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Ed in Va
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82733 - Fri Aug 22 2008 02:25 PM

What do you read from that...is the COC very near the coast...is it starting to twist a bit in the last frames?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Fri Aug 22 2008 02:31 PM)


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Tazmanian93
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #82734 - Fri Aug 22 2008 02:37 PM

Tornado warnings popping all over from JAX to Valdosta

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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pcola
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #82735 - Fri Aug 22 2008 02:57 PM

it looks like the forward motion to the west has decreased again...seems to be stuck in northern part of Dixie county with the center near the small area of convection, and hardly moving...with a forward speed of 4 mph, it would take days to reach the fl/al line....this storm has got to be driving the NHC nuts

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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Clark
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: pcola]
      #82736 - Fri Aug 22 2008 03:31 PM

At 3p ET, Fay is located along the Lafayette/Suwanee Co. border between the small towns of Mayo and Branford, moving WNW at about 5 mph. Fay has a bit of an inner core right now, but the primary significant weather is found in a circular ring about 20-30 miles in width extending about 60-75 miles from its center. On the northeast side, on the right side of the storm, a number of tornado warnings have been issued for rotating cells within this band and another to its north.

On its current trajectory, Fay may not make it back to Apalachee Bay, perhaps just skirting its northern shore near St. Marks later tonight. Enough of the circulation envelope will end up over water to perhaps allow the storm to maintain minimal tropical storm intensity through the nighttime hours. The point here, though, is that it does not matter if the storm makes it back over water or not: this is still a significant rainfall event for the southeast/northeastern Gulf coast over the next few days.

--------------------
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Ed in Va
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Clark]
      #82737 - Fri Aug 22 2008 03:48 PM

I'm wondering about the potential rain impact on N.O. A number of the models have the rain going there. I tried to find the Katrina rainfall there, but it's showing as missing. There is a listing for "Abeliene NO", which shows about 12". I realize there were other factors beyond the rain that caused the K. problems, but what would be the impact of a very slow moving, heavy rain producing storm like F?

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!


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pcola
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #82739 - Fri Aug 22 2008 04:06 PM

the coc of Fay is near Keaton Beach, south of Perry, and looks to have a short 60 mile trip across Appalachee Bay, before hitting land again near Carrabelle...if Fay stays on a westward track, she may go back over the water briefly near Panama City, setting up the possibility of a 5th landfall in Florida later in the weekend..the odds of that ever happening again are long.....however, Fay seems to again have slowed her forward motion..the last time she did this she jogged north...if that happens again it could keep Fay over land or at least the immediate coast for the rest of her ride across florida..even though a small storm, I can not remember one that has been this interesting

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Fri Aug 22 2008 07:18 PM)


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Trekman
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Crusadier95]
      #82746 - Fri Aug 22 2008 07:47 PM

Well, I left work early at Tyndall to a light, slightly wind driven drizzle. Five hours later sitting here in Fort Walton Beach, the rain has yet to get here. The rain is certainly taking its time getting here.

--------------------
Went though: Erin ('95), Opal ('95), Danny ('97), Georges ('98), Ivan ('04), Dennis ('05)

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gatorman
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Trekman]
      #82747 - Fri Aug 22 2008 07:55 PM

Finally started to rain here in Panama City, almost 7pm,, wish this would have started earlier, some people are doubting this storm, because its taking so long to get here. winds picked up around 5pm.. hold on lets see what she has got!! ps**** 94L dont forget with all the coverage of FAY, fingers are crossed

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pcola
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Re: Fay Loves Central Florida [Re: Trekman]
      #82748 - Fri Aug 22 2008 07:57 PM

radar imagery shows Fay is not moving much...had Fay entered the Gulf 50 miles south of her present position, she may have had time to strengthen....especially at this pace....

(Post edited to remove Forecast Lounge material.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 23 2008 10:58 PM)


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Clark
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Clark]
      #82753 - Fri Aug 22 2008 09:04 PM

Recon has been consistently finding 50 kt winds south of the center over the Gulf around 29-29.25N, suggesting that Fay held together over land better than anticipated. I expect to see Fay upgraded to a 45-50 kt tropical storm at 11p or, at the very least, to see an explanation for the SFMR and recon winds in the 11p discussion. Note, however, that over land -- and even on the coast -- the strongest winds are closer to the 30-35 mph range with gusts to tropical storm force at times. That is the more important consideration to human interests, not what the storm may be doing over the open waters of Apalachee Bay.

--------------------
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Storm Hunter
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Clark]
      #82755 - Fri Aug 22 2008 09:18 PM

Per Clarks comment:

A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 23:40:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°41'N 83°51'W (29.6833N 83.85W)
B. Center Fix Location: 59 miles (95 km) to the SSE (155°) from Tallahassee, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,384m (4,541ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated


Maximum Flight Level Wind: 52kts (~ 59.8mph) in the southwest quadrant at 23:27:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb

I am coming more alarmed for tomorrows tornado setup that we might have here as Fay passes... there's a lot of breaks in the southern part of Fay right now. and tomorrow with the... sun, shear, flow from GOM...etc.... alot of factors are adding up.. should be a interesting afternoon in my neck of the woods

Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 22 2008 09:23 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82756 - Fri Aug 22 2008 09:29 PM Attachment (440 downloads)

Fay appears to be on track for her 4th and 5th landfall... now appears that she may pass just south of me, here in PCB.... but not by much!

(Post edited to remove Forecast Lounge material.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 23 2008 11:00 PM)


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ricky
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #82757 - Fri Aug 22 2008 09:36 PM

Quote:

I'm wondering about the potential rain impact on N.O. A number of the models have the rain going there. I tried to find the Katrina rainfall there, but it's showing as missing. There is a listing for "Abeliene NO", which shows about 12". I realize there were other factors beyond the rain that caused the K. problems, but what would be the impact of a very slow moving, heavy rain producing storm like F?




I don't think it would be very good there and I am sure would cause local flooding, but hope not to find out as I am heading there next week and just got done dealing with her here in Florida.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: ricky]
      #82758 - Fri Aug 22 2008 09:44 PM

Second Pass:

A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 1:02:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°41'N 83°54'W (29.6833N 83.9W)
B. Center Fix Location: 58 miles (93 km) to the SSE (157°) from Tallahassee, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,395m (4,577ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)

Maximum Flight Level Temp: 18°C (64°F) which was observed 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SE (131°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX OUTBOUND AND FL WIND 57 KT SW QUAD 01:22:00 Z
MAX OUTBOUND AND SFC WIND 53 KT SW QUAD 01:22:30 Z

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Aug 22 2008 09:49 PM)


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #82760 - Fri Aug 22 2008 10:33 PM

Everything that I'm seeing has Fay stalling somewhere just North of New Orleans.

If anything I can't imagine Fay going thru/past the NOGC w/o veering to the North.

The greatest heat engine ever devised. Awesome.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Admin Note [Re: MikeC]
      #82761 - Sat Aug 23 2008 12:40 AM

A reminder that CFHC is not a chat room. There have been a considerable number of one-line posts that contain no useful content in this thread (and others). One-line posts are generally not permitted on the site in any Forum. Please review the site Rules for guidance before you post.
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Storm Hunter
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #82762 - Sat Aug 23 2008 12:41 AM

right before the "4th" landfall... there was a blow-up of convection on the NE side... very close to the center... storms fired up to 25k-35k ft... and they are still showing some storng returns on radar as they are wrapping around to the west and southwest... they are really close to the center...... i have a slight feeling if Fay can hold with her setup... things could get interesting tomorrow as the center re-enters the GOM off Bay/Gulf County... south of Panama City.. Hopefully she will pass close enough to Tyndally AFB... they have wx sticks there that might gives us some good data before she enters the GOM.

**side note.. i think as she hit the coast.. she got bumped around a little... maybe a slight south of west movement? ***

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 23 2008 12:44 AM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82766 - Sat Aug 23 2008 02:29 AM

well i think i was right... heard she may have came ashore near sopchoppy? but the 2am says "AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR JUST
SOUTHWEST OF CARRABELLE FLORIDA. "

so i think with that blow-up of storms near the center earlier, and coming ashore had her wobble/move to the south some... i really think she went down hwy 98 there... which means she should enter the GOM sooner than forecasted?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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Clark
Meteorologist


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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Clark]
      #82767 - Sat Aug 23 2008 02:37 AM

Fay seems to be wobbling a bit here very near Dog Island, FL, just southwest of Carrabelle along the Franklin County coastline. This is likely temporary and the storm should resume a westward movement at 4-7 kt in the next few hours. Peak surface winds are still about in the 20-25 mph range inland with some higher gusts; winds just off the surface about 2000-2500 ft aloft to the east of Tallahassee have consistently been to 60-65 kt on radar this evening. Some of this is making it down to the surface but only in isolated gusts to 35-40 mph. The strongest surface winds remain over water south of the storm in Apalachee Bay.

Fortunately, there is not a lot of dry air intrusion into Fay right now. While it would likely help take care of some of the rainfall, it would also enhance the potential for damaging wind gusts to make it to the surface akin to the severe thunderstorms we see over land. As it maintains a healthy tropical structure, the primary threat remains rain rather than straight-line winds. Isolated tornadoes, particularly well east and northeast of the storm, also remain a concern with the threat region shifting toward I-75 in Georgia and North Florida tomorrow. Any breaks in the clouds well east of the center will help provide the instability needed for storms to rotate in those outer feeder bands. The SPC has this well-highlighted for the next 24-30 hours.

Ultimately, with Fay moving into the panhandle and skirting the northern Gulf, the precipitation shield on its east side is filling in significantly due to a large influx of moist, unstable maritime air. For the past 24-48 hours this inflow has been restricted by the Florida peninsula but now that is no longer the case. The numerical models picked up on this and seem to have been correct in advertising the rainfall threat to ramp up once the storm made it to Apalachee Bay. Torrential rains with avg. rainfall rates over 0.5"/hr in many areas are likely across southern Georgia and the Florida panhandle over the course of the day Saturday. Storm total rainfall figures are already in excess of 4" in many spots across the region and these will likely double tomorrow. Travel on the roads is not recommended due to the potential for flooding, downed trees, and downed power lines in this relatively heavily forested area of the southeast.

--------------------
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Jumaduke
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Clark]
      #82768 - Sat Aug 23 2008 07:26 AM

Fay is just an amazing storm. We dealt with her most of yesterday near Gainesville, with some blustery winds and lots of drizzly rain all day with a few heavier downpours. Now this morning, as she's skirting along the Southern edge of the Panhandle, my weather radio goes off for the first time alerting of a tornado watch until 3 p.m. Radar shows that most of her bands are West of us. Will she really not leave Florida alone?

And, is it official? Has she rained in every Florida county now?

I'm interested to see what she does once she hits Louisiana/Alabama and makes that sharp NE turn towards Birmingham. Could she get absorbed into a front system, come back East, and hit Florida again?

She's the Energizer storm.

--------------------
Go Gators!


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gatorman
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: pcola]
      #82770 - Sat Aug 23 2008 08:56 AM

seems like the eye is over panama city right now,,,unless this thing is REALLY impressive on the back end,, Fay has really been a over hyped small (to this point) rain storm, not much wind, and id guess maybe 2-3 inches of rain

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pcola
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: gatorman]
      #82771 - Sat Aug 23 2008 09:09 AM

the coc of Fay is still due north of Port St Joe and has moved very little for the last hour..it did this last night as well...slowing and then scooting off west again..most of the rain from Fay will be on the back side, with the flow coming out of the Gulf....the flow in front of the coc is from the north and does not have as much moisture....Fay coc will reenter the Gulf at panama City..Fay does not have an eye as a large storm would, and has become a lopsided storm..the heaviest rains from Fay are now over areas the coc went over yesterday afternoon in the Big Bend area....if she stays gets back water the rain maker will be enhanced

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!

Edited by pcola (Sat Aug 23 2008 09:20 AM)


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #82773 - Sat Aug 23 2008 09:36 AM



Every hour is critical now for Fay.

Fay needs to stay at 30 degrees passing South of Pensacola in order to
get into Lake Pontchartrain.


And if FAY stalls and drops 25 inches on Lake P, levees will give way.

And of course New Orleans is not ready.

(Post edited to remove Forecast Lounge material.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Aug 23 2008 10:48 PM)


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charlottefl
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #82774 - Sat Aug 23 2008 09:46 AM

What's really amazing to me is I live in Ft. Myers, FL and we started getting feeder bands as early as Monday night, along with about 5" of rain +/- Tuesday. I would venture to say it's rained close to an inch every day since then. So 6 straight days of rain from the same storm, she may not have been real strong, but she's certainly done a lot of damage for being just a "tropical storm"

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pcola
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: charlottefl]
      #82775 - Sat Aug 23 2008 10:18 AM

I do not see Fay staying over the Gulf to Mississippi...actually the radar presentation makes it look like Fay may never go more than a few miles into the Gulf..if anything the coc has spreadout and possibly even made a jog north...Fay weakened over land thru the night and this trend looks to continue unless it gets a few 10ths of a degree south....

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: charlottefl]
      #82776 - Sat Aug 23 2008 10:25 AM

Yes, and what you've said about Ft Meyers and Fay's landing is important.
Tropical Storms are harbingers of rain.
Look at Texas now. Every day since Dolly/Edouard somewhere in Texas has gotten 10 inches
in a day it seems.

And I think that another important story overlooked is that August is more favorable for
Tropical Storms in the Mobile to Galveston area.
And the Hurricane Center has been treating Fay like it's a Mid September Storm. Ready to break East
or North.

IMHO ;}

Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 23 2008 11:25 AM)


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #82777 - Sat Aug 23 2008 11:55 AM

Finally got over an inch of rain yesterday here near Tampa. That gives up a TOTAL of 1.25 in for the WEEK. This has been VERY wierd as Fay has virtually circled us, pounded places south, east and north of us and yet we have been drier this week that any of the past 6 weeks. We DO have some bands headed out way this morning....and maybe we still get slammed to make up for the previous lack, but so far, Fay has had no impact on us except for a lot of worry and a day off of school.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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MichaelA
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #82778 - Sat Aug 23 2008 12:28 PM

I've had over an inch of rain this morning here in mid-Pinellas County and had the strongest gust we've had all week just ahead of the last shower. The ground is saturated, so there is no soaking in - water is just setting on top. With the wind coming from the SSW off the Gulf, there will be more rain today and into tomorrow for us.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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Beach
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: MichaelA]
      #82780 - Sat Aug 23 2008 12:42 PM

Fay still looks like she is going to be around for awhile.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
If LP gets as much rain as I did in Indialantic Beach (24 inches)
It really could turn into a sad situation.

Now Looking ahead...

Wouldn't surprise me if 95L gets it act together before 94L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html
It is moving a bit fast, but we will see.

94L I bet is still 3 days away of getting it's act together.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


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Clark
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Clark]
      #82784 - Sat Aug 23 2008 01:16 PM

Fay is producing torrential rains across the Florida Big Bend and SW Georgia right now with rainfall rates averaging 1.5"/hr across the region. Rainfall rates to 4-6"/hr have been reported with the heaviest band currently extending from Thomasville, GA to Monticello, FL to Dekle Beach, FL and this will shift westward as Fay slides westward. Daily rainfall records will be broken today across this region, with 10.13" being the 24 hr rainfall record in Tallahassee to date. In some areas monthly record rainfall totals may be approached with storm total accumulations of 15" likely being the norm rather than the exception.

For Tallahassee and points west, the worst is yet to come. The airmass over the Gulf is unstable and very, very moist, resulting in the development and maintenance of intense, highly efficient rain-producing storms. With the Gulf of Mexico wide open to the south and southeast of Fay, this isn't likely to change anytime soon. Three-hourly accumulations near 10" have been observed in some spots and it is quite possible that similar totals are found in Tallahassee and nearby locales starting in just a few hours. An isolated tornado threat exists with these storms as well, although the potential may be a bit higher further to the north.

For those in my part of the world, I urge you to stay inside and do not venture out onto the roads. Many roads have been closed due to downed trees and many others will be closing due to flooding and further downed trees as the day progresses today. If you are out on the roads and come to *any* body of standing or moving water, turn around-don't drown. It only takes a small amount of water to move a car. Already many people have lost their lives in Florida due to this storm -- don't let rushing water or falling trees impact you as well. For those of you to the west, be prepared and do not let this catch you off-guard!

--------------------
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pcola
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Re: Fay's New Love Affair - New Orleans? [Re: Clark]
      #82785 - Sat Aug 23 2008 01:24 PM

It looks like Fay will not be going back into the Gulf..radar shows that the center of circulation is just northwest of Panama City, and north, or even with the northern most part of the gulf...unless she jogs a bit south (not far though) we will not have a 5th landfall

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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