danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Max Flight level wind... this pass through the Eye
05:53:00Z 20.083N 80.467W
985.0 mb(~ 29.09 inHg) -
From 142° at 96 knots(From the SE at ~ 110.4 mph)
Minimum Aircraft pressure... this pass. Not from Dropsonde
05:58:00Z 19.867N 80.650W
969.8 mb(~ 28.64 inHg)
edit-110mph at Flight Level should bring the surface wind speed up to 95 to 100mph. 90% rule gives 99mph at the surface.
Lowest aircraft pressure passing through the Eye... this pass.
06:01:00Z 19.733N 80.767W
966.9 mb(~ 28.55 inHg)
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 30 2008 02:21 AM)
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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist
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and imagine that....10 minutes later Gustav is now a Category 2 hurricane!
210 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100
MPH...155 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
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flahurricane
Weather Hobbyist
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Wow. Now 966.9mb in the center..he is deepening!
Edited by flahurricane (Sat Aug 30 2008 02:20 AM)
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heynow
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: Abbeville, LA
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Yes, New Orleans didn't get a direct hit from and was on what is considered the "good" side of a hurricane. But, New Orleans is different. The worst possible scenario for New Orleans is to get a big, slow, powerful hurricane that lands to right to the east. It pushes water from Lake Pontchartrain into the city from above--if the levees don't hold then it is catastophe (as we all know).
I postulate that New Orleans would fair better from a west side hurricane. Needless to say, New Orleans cannot endure another hurricane right now, whether it is from the "good" side or "bad" side.
For my part, I am facing the worst scenario. I live in Abbeville, LA and a Cat 4 hurricane coming up Vermilion Bay would put 3 feet of water in my house (I am 20 miles from the coast and 17 feet above sea level). I am leaving tomorrow and hoping for the best. Luckily, I have been paying for flood insurance for 5 years (a lesson from Lili).
Sorry for the diatribe, but I am not as smart weatherwise as most of the people here, so I have nothing substantial to add. Just my thanks.
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I've lived through Danny ('85), Juan ('85), Andrew ('92), Lili ('02), Rita ('05) and Gustav ('08).
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I hope the rest of the people in Acadiana will heed your warning and evacuate to higher, safer ground.
Remember... Hide from the Wind, and Run from the Water.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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URNT12 KNHC 300630
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 30/06:01:30Z
B. 19 deg 43 min N
080 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2831 m
D. 75 kt
E. 041 deg 24 nm
F. 147 deg 100 kt
G. 042 deg 028 nm
H. 969 mb
I. 8 C/ 3033 m
J. 15 C/ 3050 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1307A GUSTAV OB 09
MAX FL WIND 100 KT NE QUAD 05:53:20 Z
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Latest recon vortex 815z, has minimum pressure down to 965mb - thats a drop of 4 mb in 2 hours, and shows Gustav is really starting to get his act together. Anticipate that Little Cayman and Cayman Brac have taken quite a lashing, but not as much of a lashing as the Isle of Youth and western Cuba are set to take this afternoon!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Gustav is undergoing rapid intensification tonight. Unsurprising, given that it has finally freed itself of the grips of those mountainous islands in its path...while at the same time hitting a swath of increasingly deep, very warm SSTs...
Outflow is abundant in all quadrants, yet a little bit pinched to the northwest and west.
Gustav will probably be declared a major hurricane by 8AM, and perhaps much sooner. Pressures are falling appreciably tonight. The most recent vort fix has Gustav down to 965mb, and still falling. Chances are high that Gustav crosses western Cuba, or just left of there, at Cat 2 or higher. There is some question tonight as to how much the restricted outflow to its northwest and west may begin hampering or even reversing intensification. Furthermore, in the near-term, there were some earlier hints of a second eyewall trying to form. An eyewall replacement cycle before crossing by/over Cuba could put a temporary, or not so temporary, dent in its intensity.
Of perhaps more concern, the radius of hurricane-force winds has been steadily expanding. Gustav is without doubt in the process of trying to become a large and powerful major hurricane, like was. On an unadjusted basis, Objective Technique also indicates that Gustav is on its way to becoming a Cat 3-4 this morning. Once a major hurricane, provided that northwesterly shear remains contained, Gustav is likely to hold within a range of Cat2 to Cat5 until landfall. A stronger Gustav may make landfall closer to New Orleans, and a somewhat weaker Gustav may tend to make landfall farther west of there.
Barring an unpredictable eyewall replacement cycle or more shear than anticipated, Gustav probably maintains in the 110 to potentially as high as 175 MPH range for the duration of the next 60 hours or so, and a track a little on the northeast side of the current cone, at least for a while, seems more plausible. Towards the end of Day 3 or 4, Gustav may shunt southwestward in response to (the possibility of) a strong blocking high building into the middle of the country. Should this type of scenario verify, the central gulf coast may take many hours of pounding, wind-driven rain and incredible storm surge before Gustav then crawls around either inland, along, or just offshore of the upper-Texas coast. This scenario is a very ugly possibility, and unfortunately, an increasingly possible one.
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LadyStorm
Weather Guru
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Loc: United States
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CNN is reporting that Gustav just became a CAT 3 with winds of 115 mph and could be a CAT 4 by landfall here in the US.
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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rayboat
Registered User
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Posts: 7
Loc: Jupiter Fl.
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Already experiencing wind, rain, thunder, and lightning here in Jupiter Fl. I am in total awe! I feel for the Gulf Coast!
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threw-er-back
Registered User
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Newbie to the site and in no way well versed in weather jargon..I happened upon this site and am impressed with narratives..very informative..... I live in Homosassa, FL On the headwaters of the Homosassa, River and Fay had water within 8" on coming in my back door. brought water in by about an inch.
What if any effect do you all think my neck of the woods will realize??
Do you belive the spagetti models as to landfall? Is there a chance Gus will make a RH turn?
Hanna looks like she's going to run eventually through the FL. Straits..whats the buzz where she'll go from there? Sorry for all the Q's. Hopefully the more I read this site the more educated I'll get... Thanks in advance
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Lurking to learn
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
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Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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Latest vortex message has pressure down to 956mb...thats almost 9mb since the 6am special update. wow. and it isn't done yet either
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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smorse22
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 17
Loc: North Port, Fl
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By looking at this link below it looks like Gustav is moving east of it's projected path. Do you agree?
Satellite (IR/Vis) Loop IR
edit by moderator redingtonbeachguy -- I usually don't put a lot of stock in a few hours in a loop. 
Edited by RedingtonBeachGuy (Sat Aug 30 2008 08:20 AM)
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Daytonaman
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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As a long time Ohioian who has an amateur weather background, I have found an all new appreciation from experiencing Florida weather. This site has really been great with all the discussion and links to great learning tools. Because of this learning I have a rank amateur observation from looking at the many satellite images this morning. It looks as if Hanna is trying either to go north of the ULL ahead of her or to engulf this low. If this is true then it would appear she is north of the track. Any help with this it would be greatly appreciated. Great many thanks to all who maintain this site.
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Bruce
Port Orange, FL
29.14 80.99
Thanks to all who work so hard to teach those of us without the knowledge but the thirst to know.
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ltpat228
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 201
Loc: Port Saint Lucie FL
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Quote:
Already experiencing wind, rain, thunder, and lightning here in Jupiter Fl. I am in total awe! I feel for the Gulf Coast!
Am 2 counties up from you and we're also getting the very outerbands of Gustav.
Below is a link to your weather in Jupiter.
http://www.weather.com/weather/local/334...;from=searchbox
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RedingtonBeachGuy
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Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
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Quote:
Newbie to the site and in no way well versed in weather jargon..
Welcome! As for the weather jargon, heck either am I but I was always able to follow the general drift of conversation to know if I needed to duck or run.
Quote:
I live in Homosassa, FL.. What if any effect do you all think my neck of the woods will realize?? Do you belive the spagetti models as to landfall? Is there a chance Gus will make a RH turn? Hanna looks like she's going to run eventually through the FL. Straits..whats the buzz where she'll go from there? Sorry for all the Q's. Hopefully the more I read this site the more educated I'll get... Thanks in advance
The mets here might be able to give you a better idea but we generally tell folks to watch the National Hurricane Center's three and five-day track cones. And, of course, heed the warnings given for your local area.
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threw-er-back
Registered User
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Thanks I appreciate the welcome!
I normally do follow , etc. But these storms have a morbid facination for me..and I want to learn more...You have a new loyal follower 
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Lurking to learn
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RU12
Registered User
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Quote:
By looking at this link below it looks like Gustav is moving east of it's projected path. Do you agree?
I've made that same observation. I keep thinking that the rapid intensification is guiding the storm to the right a little but it could be just a wobble. We're still inside the cone of error so we're not relaxing just yet. Remember hit further west of the projected path and still caused enough storm surge to top the levees in Nawlins again and also flooded some low lying roads along Mobile Bay. We're wataching both the track and the SIZE of the storm.
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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While most 120mph Hurricanes are symmetrical. There is something strange about Gustav and the location of the Eye.
Perfect circle of high cloud tops but the EYE is located at the 3 o'clock position and not in the center where it should be... like Pac Man with his mouth open.
Also the Eyewall on the eastern side of the Eye is about half to two thirds as high as the rest of the Eyewall.
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kromdog
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Nice breeze picking up out of the east here in Tampa. Definitely "surfs up" here on the west coast of Florida later this holiday weekend.
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