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MikeCAdministrator
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Major Hurricane Gustav Closing in on Louisiana
      #83385 - Sat Aug 30 2008 08:06 AM

8:30PM EDT 31 August Update
Gustav now likely to make landfall in east central Louisiana as a major Catagory III hurricane. Last visisble light satellite imagery showed a significant convective bloom over and southwest of the eye and the recon aircraft reported a central pressure of 952MB. Sustained surface winds have likely increased to at least 120mph and since the forward motion of about 15mph to the northwest has not yet decreased, Gustav should make landfall as a firm Cat III storm. Wind gusts in higher structures within the eyewall at landfall could approach 150mph. The central core of the hurricane appears to be rebuilding. The primary feeder band of the hurricane reached New Orleans at 8PM with wind gusts to 47mph at the airport. Gustav should make landfall in the mid-morning hours on Monday.
ED

8:20AM EDT 31 August Update
Gustav Weakened a bit after crossing Cuba, but remained a Major Hurricane, and has a chance to recover strength today. The storm has picked up forward motion as is Currently Moving Northwest at 16mph which would put the storm at or near landfall tomorrow night around 8 or so CDT.

If you are in Coastal Louisiana or New Orleans now YOU SHOULD NOT BE LOOKING AT THIS PAGE and should be executing evacuation plans now.



Hurricane watches remain in effect from High Island Texas to the border of Alabama and Florida, including the city of New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain. Tropical storm watches also remain in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to Ochlochonee River. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the western end of the Florida Keys, and tropical storm watches are in effect for the eastern keys. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered and are on-going in and around the New Orleans area. All persons in and around the watch area need to rush preparations to protect life and property, to completion.

11:15 pm Saturday Update

Hurricane Gustav now over the waters of the southeastern Gulf (23.1N/83.8W)

Hurricane watches remain in effect from High Island Texas to the border of Alabama and Florida, including the city of New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain. Tropical storm watches also remain in effect from the Alabama/Florida border to Ochlochonee River. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the western end of the Florida Keys, and tropical storm watches are in effect for the eastern keys. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered and are on-going in and around the New Orleans area. All persons in and around the watch area need to rush preparations to protect life and property, to completion.

Gustav took a punch in the belly for his having passed over Cuba. As of 11pm, maximum sustained winds have decreased to 140mph, and the minimum central pressure has risen to 948mb. However, with weak to no shear and rich oceanic heat content along the expect track through the east-central Gulf, the forecast for strengthening to near Category 5 status unfortunately still exists, peaking around 155mph 24 hours from now. This may be conservative. Gustav's interaction with the enormous heat potential of the Loop Current has yet to occur. Re-intensification is already underway, as recent satellite images are showing cooling cloud tops amid the CDO region, and the eye beginning to reappear. The long range radar from Key West, Florida, also shows a very sharply defined eye.

Gustav is forecast to make landfall as a very powerful hurricane, most likely near the Mississippi Delta region, between 36 and 48 hours from now; although it is important to point out that absolute certainty regarding the landfall location still can not be made.

John (typhoon_tip)

5:00 pm Saturday Update

Hurricane watch has been issued from High Island Texas to the border of Alabama and Florida, including the city of New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain. Hurricanes conditions may develop anywhere in this watch area in 36 hours time. Preparations to secure safety and property should be well underway and completed prior to the expected arrival of very dangerous and powerful Hurricane Gustav. Evacuations in New Orleans and surrounding areas have already begun. A tropical storm watch has also been issued from Alabama/Florida border east to the Ochlockonee River.

Gustav continues to strengthen as it approaches western Cuba. As of the 5pm advisory, maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph, placing Gustav a mere 5 mph shy of the Category 4/Category 5 threshold. Minimum pressure is currently 942mb.

The Tropical Prediction Center has maintained their intensity forecast, expecting the maximum sustained winds to reach as high as 140kts (160mph) during and shortly after Gustav tracks bodily across the famed Loop Current (a large eddy of particularly warm waters that also extends to greater depths than normal) in the southeastern Gulf. Currently, Gustav has responded to a weakness in the ridge over the northern Gulf and that is why were are seeing a discerned northwest motion. This is expected to continue until the point of landfall; where precisely that landfall takes place can not yet be pin-pointed, but a landfall in the northern Gulf is of higher confidence.

John (typhoon_tip)

1:30 pm Saturday Update
Gustav has continued to intensify today with peak winds now at 145 mph. Gustav is a strong category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale and further strengthening is possible before it makes landfall in western Cuba this evening.

Original Update
Hurricane Gustav has become a category 3 storm, with 120MPH winds as of 5PM, and recon just recently reported a pressure drop to 955mb which indicates it has grown even stronger.



The forecast track has the 3 day cone with Gustav nearing the coast Tuesday morning in an area from Northeast Texas to Alabama, with Louisiana in the middle. Most of the model guidence takes it to Central Louisiana, and it may slow down forward motion significantly as it nears the coastline or crosses over the coast making extended winds/rain likely in the landfall area.

Those in those areas should pay attention to local media and officials and official weather statements from your area. Those in areas that take a while to evacuate along the Louisiana coastline should start so now. Areas in the expanded cone should continue to watch too, especially after Gustav gets north of Cuba.

Tropical Storm Hanna's center is away from most of the convection, but it's moving generally westward, the forecast keeps it gaining strength slowly, and eventually moving southwest (which is extremely rare for hurricanes and tropical storms in this area). Avila in the 5AM discussion even mentioned Hurricane Betsy (1965) as another storm that did something similar and how today's models would react to that. That said, there appears to be even more uncertainty in the future track than with Gustav.

Also in the eastern Atlantic is a tropical wave (97L) which has the potential to develop over the next few days, and is the first likely candidate this year for a long track system (tropical depression or higher).


Graphic showing elevations of New Orleans

Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Mississippi Emer. Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management
Lousiana Evac Maps

Video/Audio Links/Webcams
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio and Video
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
New Orleans Webcams
French Quarter Cam
Multiple webcams located at the Port of New Orleans
Lake Ponchartrain Causeway
Metarie Webcam
Louisana Instacams
GregLeder Backyard webcam with battery backup
Maroonspoon multiple live coverage of Gustav New Orleans: WGNO, WWL, WDSU, WVUE (Mute individual ones to focus)
New Orleans Police Scanner (Req. Winamp)
Lousiana EM Radio Chatter



Louisiana DOT Traffic Cameras

Television/Radio
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans) HERE
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile

Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans

-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas, please let us know if you have any links/information!


Key West Long Range Radar with hint of Gustav

Storm Surge Risks with Gustav along Louisiana

Google Map Plot of Both Gustav and Hanna

Flhurricane Long Term Recording of Cuban radar mosaic
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes


New Orleans, LA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)
Lake Charles, LA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gustav Event Related Links


float7latest.gif stormplotthumb_7.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=7 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Gustav
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Gustav


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gustav (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gustav (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Gustav

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Gustav
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gustav -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View




Caribbean Islands Weather Reports


Hanna Event Related Links


float8latest.gif stormplotthumb_8.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=8 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Hanna
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Hanna


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Hanna (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Hanna (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Hanna

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Hanna
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Hanna -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



97L Event Related Links


float9latest.gif stormplotthumb_9.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2008&storm=9 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 97L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 31 2008 09:01 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: MikeC]
      #83390 - Sat Aug 30 2008 08:50 AM

Gustav wobbled a bit to the north northwest this morning, so it's currently a little north of the 5AM forecast Track, I think wobbles like this will happen a lot, especially on a forecast track that almost looks like a straight line.

For those in the northern Gulf, this is going to be a long labor day weekend.


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MichaelA
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: MikeC]
      #83395 - Sat Aug 30 2008 09:16 AM

Quote:

Gustav wobbled a bit to the north northwest this morning, so it's currently a little north of the 5AM forecast Track, I think wobbles like this will happen a lot, especially on a forecast track that almost looks like a straight line.

For those in the northern Gulf, this is going to be a long labor day weekend.



A long weekend indeed. I'm watching closely to see if that is a temporary wobble or a trend in Gustav's direction. If it becomes a trend, then all bets are off as to where eventual landfall will be.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: MichaelA]
      #83396 - Sat Aug 30 2008 09:22 AM

Could Gustav be off center and wobbling??
The EYE is displaced to the right of where it should be. With respect to the high cloud tops.
However, the Eye appears to be centered against the main portion of the storm clouds.



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scottsvb
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: MichaelA]
      #83397 - Sat Aug 30 2008 09:26 AM

The overall pattern has been NW, there was a wobble for a hour or so NNW but overall its moving NW and will do so until Landfall. Satellite appearence looks well in 90% of Gustav with a slight SSW shear.

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scottsvb
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: scottsvb]
      #83398 - Sat Aug 30 2008 09:32 AM

Hanna should start really getting organzied tonight into Sunday I feel. The upper low is now a midlevel low and weakening with ridging now building in the upper levels over this. The LLC of Hanna is just SE of there and should start strengthening some this afternoon but especially tonight into Sunday. Hanna could be come a hurricane in the next 24hrs.

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smorse22
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: danielw]
      #83401 - Sat Aug 30 2008 09:54 AM

I believe that it's east of the forecasted path. Doesn't look like a wobble to me. NHC has it going around the body of land where I see it going east of it. We will see. Mentioned this earlier but my message got edited.

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Colleen A.
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: smorse22]
      #83402 - Sat Aug 30 2008 10:13 AM

Here is the WV Loop from Gustav:

WV Loop

If you click on "Forecast Points" on the top of the page, you can see that he is east of the NHC's forecasted track. Remember Fay's "wobbles"...if she hadn't made landfall when she did ... and she started making a turn faster than the NHC expected...she may have ended up making landfall as a Cat 1 further up the west coast of Florida.
The NW direction may still be the "true" direction of Gustav, but we need to pay attention to things like this..because it could affect a lot of people's weather who are not prepared for it. For the record, I've been monitoring local and national TV and they are all mentioning the "wobble".

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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mcgowanmc
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: danielw]
      #83405 - Sat Aug 30 2008 10:27 AM

Quote:

Could Gustav be off center and wobbling??
The EYE is displaced to the right of where it should be. With respect to the high cloud tops.
However, the Eye appears to be centered against the main portion of the storm clouds.






I studied this as bothersome, but couldn't come up with the reason.

but try this:

Isn't the eye supposed to be where Gustav is?

If that's the case, then Gustav is, by default, to the East of the forecast track:






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Colleen A.
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #83407 - Sat Aug 30 2008 10:40 AM

Good graphic...it looks as though it's been to the east of the forecast track..although not by all that much...for a few hours now. However, when you look at the last frame, it appears to be moving closer to that line. We should be getting the 11am update soon...will have to wait and see what the NHC says about it.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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DMFischer
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna [Re: MikeC]
      #83408 - Sat Aug 30 2008 10:41 AM

After reading about Gustav's drunken like wobble to the east, I was watching the WV loop with the forecast points up. I have learned enough from reading here that wobbles and such deviations are not unexpected. Over all the NHC projected path is close enough for me to be as prepared as possible for what is coming. Charlie also taught me that despite man's best efforts, they will sometimes just get screwed. As my kids say, stuff happens.
So I popped over to the same loop but with hanna, to see how she was doing on her anticipated curve southward. I noticed that she is well off track, or seems to be, to the north. I completely see why the curve is suppose to happen, but the delay, could this seriously alter the path of this storm?

--------------------
Survived: Mitch '98-Charley's crossing'04-Frances '04-Jeanne'04 Survived near fatal fear from Floyd's threat.
Nearly grew gills with Fay'08


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B_from_NC
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #83411 - Sat Aug 30 2008 10:51 AM

It will be interesting to see how the NHC reacts to this "wobble" as it has seemed to have persisted now for almost 4 hours. We have the long range radar out of Key West now giving us our first good look at the core.
Key West Long Range Loop

Hopefully everyone is well prepared and have made the appropriate plans.
Hurricanes are given names to distinguish themselves from others, and this will most likely be the only Gus we remember!!!

--------------------
Lived in S. Fla from '90-'07...
Put up and took down way too many hurricane shutters!


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kromdog
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #83412 - Sat Aug 30 2008 10:52 AM

With a storm this size you are going to have some "wobbles" to the left and right of the official track. It looks as those Gustav is ultimately on the NHC predicted course, however everyone in the cone should pay very close attention to this powerful storm.

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Hurikid
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: kromdog]
      #83415 - Sat Aug 30 2008 11:01 AM

I don't know whether you guys found this, but I think recon found(earlier) flight level winds of about 146 mph in NE quad(I followed it on google earth). Does the NHC have it in them to upgrade it to a Cat 4? It's satellite presentation continues to improve and the eye is now very visible. I wish the very best to those in this deadly hurricane's path

Edit: I guess not, still cat 3 at 11 am, with winds of 125mph

Edited by Hurikid (Sat Aug 30 2008 11:04 AM)


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kromdog
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: Hurikid]
      #83416 - Sat Aug 30 2008 11:04 AM

At the 11:00 AM advisory, Gustav appears to be a little stronger with not much change in the track. Hannah however looks be on a more westerly course without that big south to southwest component. If it holds, this storm could also end up in the GOM by the end of next week.

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cmoore
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: kromdog]
      #83418 - Sat Aug 30 2008 11:06 AM

Not to sound like a complete idiot, but can someone please tell me what is keeping Gustav moving NW, vs further N? (in other words having more affect on the Gulf Coast of MISS, Al and Fl) Everything is showing it towards TX - LA border and I would like to breathe a sigh of relief .....(I know I know, I am watching it) but I'm wondering what it is that keeping it on that path, weather wise.....

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Colleen A.
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: kromdog]
      #83419 - Sat Aug 30 2008 11:10 AM

Well, apparantly the NHC has seen the same thing we saw with the wobbles:
THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE IN TAKING GUSTAV INLAND IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS...AND IS
JUST EDGED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...IN PART TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE RECENT RIGHT OF TRACK MOTION. REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS IN THE
TRACK...GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE
LONGER-TERM...WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS.

You can read the entire discussion by clicking on "Current Storms" on the left-hand side of the main page then clicking on "Government Discussion".

Edited by Colleen A. (Sat Aug 30 2008 12:30 PM)


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Colleen A.
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: Hurikid]
      #83420 - Sat Aug 30 2008 11:15 AM

I am not a met, so take this as you will: those winds of 146mph were found at flight level where recon is flying, not at the surface level. That is why they did not upgrade it to a Cat 4. The NHC would never hold back on upgrading a hurricane to a Cat 4.
Hope that answers your question.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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CDMOrlando
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: MikeC]
      #83422 - Sat Aug 30 2008 11:45 AM

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
926 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

...TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS IMPACTING U.S. WEATHER THIS PERIOD...

ALL MODELS DEVELOP STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER ERN CONUS TUES AND WED WITH ITS AXIS SHIFTING EWD
OVER THE MID ATLC STATES REGION AND ADJACENT ATLC. WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN IS SIMILAR THERE ARE ENOUGH DETAIL DIFFERENCES TO IMPACT THE TRACKS OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS GUSTAV AND HANNA MAINLY MID AND LATE PERIOD.

GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT AND IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ITS SW TRACK INTO THE BAHAMAS BY DAY 5. ITS FUTURE DEPENDS MUCH UPON HOW MUCH RIDGING BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID ATLC STATES AND ADJACENT ATLC AS THE RIDGING REPLACES AN EXITING MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE MARITIMES.

CMC/GFS AND ECMWF AND ITS ENS MEAN HOLD ONTO THE RIDGE AND MOVE HANNA AROUND ITS WEST PERIPHERY. BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHERE WILL HANNA BE AS THE MID LEVEL EVOLVES. 00Z/06Z GFS/NOGAPS AND GFS ENS MEAN GAIN THE HIGHEST LATITUDE IN THE BAHAMAS WITH HANNA ALLOWING FOR A FUTURE DAYS 6 AND 7 TRACK MUCH MORE EWD TAKING HANNA INTO
THE SOUTHEAST COAST DAYS 6/7 AS DOES DGEX. CMC AND ECMWF START OUT FROM DAY 5 AT LOWER LATITUDES AND MAKE THE NW AND N TURN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FL OR ERN GLFMEX. UKMET GOES THE FARTHEST SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CUBA BY DAY 5. PREVIOUS YEARS THE UKMET WAS ONE OF THE BETTER MODELS IN THE CARRIBEAN AND WRN ATLC
IF ONE ADJUSTED ITS LATITUDE SEVERAL DEGREES NWD. MAKING THIS ADJUSTMENT WOULD PUT IT INTO THE ECMWF/CMC CAMP. BEGINNING FROM THE TPC DAY 5 POSITION WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GROUPING..

HPC PREFERENCE WOULD BE AN ECMWF ENS MEAN AND PROGS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THIS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7 FRI/SAT. THIS IS WITHIN THE SPREAD ENVELOPE ON THE WEST SIDE TAKING HANNA FROM THE FL STRAITS FRI ALONG THE WEST FL COAST TO NEAR APALACHEE BAY SAT. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SLOWER THAN ALL OP MODELS BUT IN LATITUDINAL AGREEMENT OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ENS MEANS.

SEE TPC FORCASTS/ADVISORIES/DISCUSSION OF HANNA.

The HPC has the hard task of giving 7 day forcasts. They were the first to predict the Fay stall. They are only concerned with the general area that will be impacted (like Florida or southeast) not the precise location of landfall. But, over the years have found their information usefull for longer range planning.


Edited by CDMOrlando (Sat Aug 30 2008 11:53 AM)


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scottsvb
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: CDMOrlando]
      #83423 - Sat Aug 30 2008 11:53 AM

I've gotten PM'S on my thoughts on Gustav's future path. Please go to Gustav lounge on page 2 and top of page 4. My idea on Hanna is up in the air still, a few things can happen still while Gustav is pretty straight-forward still, nothing has changed in 5 days.

Edited by Colleen A. (Sat Aug 30 2008 11:59 AM)


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