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Archives 2000s >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: scottsvb]
      #83425 - Sat Aug 30 2008 12:01 PM

CDMOrlando that is close to my thinking also, but I won't have a good grasp on this yet until the pattern sets up better. Probably Monday I'll have my thoughts on Hanna.

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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Gustav on Radar [Re: scottsvb]
      #83426 - Sat Aug 30 2008 12:26 PM

Key West 248nm radar has a great 'live' pic of Gustav.



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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gustav on Radar [Re: danielw]
      #83427 - Sat Aug 30 2008 12:31 PM

Very nice 248nm scan on Key west radar.. but even better close-up of the eye here. thought i may have seen two small vortices inside the eye... hard to tell, wish they turn rapid scan to the storm...

Smile... its an eye!

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 30 2008 12:36 PM)


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: scottsvb]
      #83428 - Sat Aug 30 2008 12:33 PM

Now Hanna is beginning to make me a little nervous. Some of that is a result of the 12Z GFS which keeps her east of the Florida coastline making land fall in SC. This would normally make me breathe a sigh of relief, but the more reliable guidance seems to have her going over or up the west coast of the Florida peninsula. Chances are the answer lies somewhere in between. GFS intensifies her quite a bit as well, since normally at this resolution it doesn't show cyclones that deep (ex. Gustav). We still have a few days to get a feeling on where she is headed, but I am going to make sure I have my supplies ready, know where they are, and make sure I have enough cash and propane. Now is the time to get prepared. This afternoon's ECM will be interesting. Cheers!

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TheElNino1
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 7
Loc: Orlando
Eyewall Replacement [Re: MikeC]
      #83431 - Sat Aug 30 2008 12:46 PM Attachment (494 downloads)

From the latest IR image it looks like Gustav is going through an eyewall replacement cycle at this time. The image shows the ragged inner eye surrounded by an outer eyewall. It's likely Gustav will not strengthen until the cycle is complete. I remember Katrina expanding it's windfield when this happened prior to becoming a Cat 5 hurricane over the warm Gulf loop.

My mistake, an ERC is not happening with Gustav at this time, though, it definitely has a double eyewall.

Edited by TheElNino1 (Sat Aug 30 2008 01:51 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Eyewall Replacement [Re: TheElNino1]
      #83433 - Sat Aug 30 2008 01:01 PM Attachment (582 downloads)

I am starting to believe that Hanna is going to be a headache for me, the path is starting to become a bit clearer but still hard to track. Gustav is most likely a category 4 storm now with winds of probably 130-140 mph. It's northward movement is putting the Cayman Islands in the eye. I know Gustav will lose a bit of power while crossing Cuba, but I'm really inclined to believe Fox News and it's something that I have been predicting for a few days that Gustav will possibly reach category 5 intensity right after crossing Cuba, then it should start to slowly weaken due to northwesterly shear. I have made my runs last night on both Hanna and Gustav and still sticking to the tracks yet Gustav is a category 3 storm, not a 1 as it says on the attachment. So far it's holding good, but anything can change. Hanna on the other hand, I might have to nudge my track eastward on the 2nd run if the models begin the "eastward" trend. Something tells me I need to go to the store this week to buy some stuff. Please click attachments for my run on Gustav.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Sat Aug 30 2008 01:02 PM)


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: MikeC]
      #83435 - Sat Aug 30 2008 01:04 PM

Recon looks to be about to send out a new Vort with pressure down to around 944mb with flight level winds at 138 knots.

Gustav is likely now a very dangerous and still-intensifying Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Hurricane force winds extend well-away from the eye. Western Cuba will take a bite out of the cyclone, but given its forward rate of speed and the relative flatness of the western half of Cuba, it won't be much of a bite.


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: cieldumort]
      #83436 - Sat Aug 30 2008 01:09 PM

agree.. dropsonde shows 945mb (27.91 inHg) at the surface... with a wind of 4kts at the surface... in the dead center it looks like at or around 21.4N 82.4W and an air temp of 28.0°C (82.4°F) at the surface with a dew point of 27.0°C (80.6°F)

second dropsonde released in the SW side of the eye (dropped in the eyewall) has a 116 knots (133 mph) surface wind and a pressure of 935mb (27.61 inHg)... kind suspect to me... around 21.3N 82.5W.

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Aug 30 2008 01:17 PM)


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: cieldumort]
      #83437 - Sat Aug 30 2008 01:11 PM

I don't believe that western Cuba will take much of a bite out of him, as I understand this region is fairly flat (understandably). I think he should approach cat 5 before weakening prior to landfall as it hits some of the warm eddies in the GOM. Some encouraging news on the Hanna front, the Canadien has shifted east on the 12Z run, which was further west on the 0z. Hopefully the ECM will follow suit. But we will probably see them go back and forth over the next few days.

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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: Steve H1]
      #83438 - Sat Aug 30 2008 01:18 PM

Time:
16:49:00Z
Coordinates:
21.65N 82.1W

Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 138° at 132 knots (From the SE at ~ 151.8 mph)

Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
137 knots (~ 157.5 mph)

Recon reports near the center or at the center... This is getting serious. With Katrina, NO got lucky if you really think about it. Katrina s left (weaker) side of the storm hit the city. Gustav is expected to bring the right (stronger) side to the city which might mean the storm surge "could" be worse then Katrina. Something to think about, my heart and prayer goes out to the people in the path of this extremely dangerous cyclone.
A year after Rita hit in 2005, I toured and helped out with cleaning the damage and fixing homes, it was my church's mission trip. It was completely devastated, the beach was gone. The really dangerous thing about Gustav is that both Rita and Katrina areas will be impacted severely.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5

Edited by allan (Sat Aug 30 2008 01:20 PM)


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: Steve H1]
      #83439 - Sat Aug 30 2008 01:20 PM

It looks to me as if Isle of Youth is going to take a little bit less of a hit than thought before. The center of Gustav keeps jumping back and forth..looks like they are about to get the west side of Gustav on the eastern side of the island. I know the jumps are common, but the difference for them is a big one..a direct hit vs. a brush. Still devastating, though.
sorry...had my islands mixed up! Thanks for pointing that out!

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.

Edited by Colleen A. (Sat Aug 30 2008 02:09 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 377
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: Steve H1]
      #83440 - Sat Aug 30 2008 01:22 PM

Just keep this in mind (and we are already seeing it a LOT this seaso)....the models do NOT do even a fair job on weak TS. Fay was a mess and Hanna is following suit, whereas Gustav as a stronger storm over the past 4 days has not REALLY given the models much problem. Yes, the cone is wide at the end of Gustav's travels, but part of that may be attributed to it being weaker at that point after making landfall. Models have really been unusually consistent on Gustav. Until Hanna gets stronger, I am really not paying attention to the models on her at all as they are just slightly more than worthless.....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #83441 - Sat Aug 30 2008 01:23 PM

Gustav now upto Cat 4 with 145 mph winds... and still he gets stronger...

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Tazmanian93
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 489
Loc: Tampa
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #83443 - Sat Aug 30 2008 01:36 PM

Afternoon all... WOW, incredible rapid deepening. Is it my eyes, or (and I know common) but is Gus moving more N of NW than NW? I was just in NOLA in the winter for business and it was incredible to see the rebuilding that had taken place and now for this to happen. Prayers are out and constant !

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_byx2_anim.gif

--------------------
Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.

Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!

****************

Ed


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pcola
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 344
Loc: pensacola/gulf breeze
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #83444 - Sat Aug 30 2008 01:41 PM

Quote:

It looks to me as if Grand Cayman Island is going to take a little bit less of a hit than thought before. The center of Gustav keeps jumping back and forth..looks like they are about to get the west side of Gustav on the eastern side of the island. I know the jumps are common, but the difference for them is a big one..a direct hit vs. a brush. Still devastating, though.





Sorry for the one liner, but that is not Grand Caymen..Gustav is past bthat...the island Gustav is approaching is the Isle of Youth, part of Cuba

--------------------
Erin 95 , Opal 95, Ivan 04, Dennis 05, and that's enough!!!!


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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2132
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Eyewall Replacement [Re: TheElNino1]
      #83445 - Sat Aug 30 2008 01:42 PM

Quote:

From the latest IR image it looks like Gustav is going through an eyewall replacement cycle at this time. The image shows the ragged inner eye surrounded by an outer eyewall. It's likely Gustav will not strengthen until the cycle is complete. I remember Katrina expanding it's windfield when this happened prior to becoming a Cat 5 hurricane over the warm Gulf loop.





It's often fool's bait to rely on IR images to determine whether or not an ERC is underway.

Stick to the data from recon, and available radar. These do not show any imminent ERC.


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Steve H1
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 309
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #83447 - Sat Aug 30 2008 01:50 PM

Point taken Lamar, she is still a somewhat naked circulation and a lot can change. I agree not a straightforward track at all like Gustav's.

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smorse22
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 17
Loc: North Port, Fl
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: Tazmanian93]
      #83448 - Sat Aug 30 2008 01:54 PM

Quote:

Afternoon all... WOW, incredible rapid deepening. Is it my eyes, or (and I know common) but is Gus moving more N of NW than NW? I was just in NOLA in the winter for business and it was incredible to see the rebuilding that had taken place and now for this to happen. Prayers are out and constant !

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_byx2_anim.gif





I agree. I believe that it's moving more N of NW. Continues to be east of NHC projected path.


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RedingtonBeachGuy
Moderator


Reged: Tue
Posts: 342
Loc: St. Cloud, FL
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: smorse22]
      #83452 - Sat Aug 30 2008 02:37 PM

It appears to my layman view the previous two day track is dead center on the NHC prediction. I wouldn't put any stock on a few hours of wobbles myself.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane, Hanna Moving West [Re: RedingtonBeachGuy]
      #83453 - Sat Aug 30 2008 02:45 PM

Although I agree that we have to see more of a few hours of wobbling before looking for a track change; however, it is important to note that the 5am track had Gus going straight over the Isle of Youth, at 11am they shifted the track back bythismuch to the right because of those wobbles - which has a direct impact on those who are in it's path.
It may not be as important when it's over water, but when it's as close to land as it is right now, it's really important.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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