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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Idalia) , Major: 292 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 292 (Idalia) Major: 292 (Idalia)
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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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msdejesus
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Re: Storm Info [Re: Hugh]
      #83564 - Sun Aug 31 2008 07:49 PM

I too agree that Gustav is making his way a little the East of the NHC track... but I trust they know what they are doing. As far as traffic, I think many people began leaving yesterday. I live in Ft. Walton and tried to cross highway 98 last night (around 12:30am) and it took me about 10 minutes to do so because East bound traffic was so heavy... every plate was a Louisana plate! The only thing I worry about is that they will be evacuating to the path of Hanna. I am glad people are taking heed to warnings this time though.... Be smart and stay safe!

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allan
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane in Gulf, Hanna Moving West [Re: MikeC]
      #83565 - Sun Aug 31 2008 07:49 PM

Gustav is still a very dangerous hurricane, yet a miracle has happened.. Gustav never reached category 5 when it was expected to. It would seem that Cuba weakened the storm but it only weakened it from 155-140 mph. Shear and dry air is doing the rest of the job, it appears that the anticyclone is moving back into Gustav and that might help it get near but I give it a slim chance at regaining category 4 status. There's cool TCHP waters where it's going but the surface temperatures should keep in at major hurricane status. The eye is popping out again, maybe it will regain winds 10-15 mph. over 115 mph. I guess it's a wait and see, it probably won't be worse than Hurricane Katrina, but it will still cause plenty of chaos in the NOLA area.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane in Gulf, Hanna Moving West [Re: MikeC]
      #83568 - Sun Aug 31 2008 08:14 PM

97L is looking pretty good at the moment. This has potential to be our next storm in the next day or so.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Edited by hurricane expert (Sun Aug 31 2008 08:14 PM)


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Rich B
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane in Gulf, Hanna Moving West [Re: allan]
      #83569 - Sun Aug 31 2008 08:14 PM

Central pressure is dropping now as per vortex message, down 3 mb from the 2pm advisory to 957mb from 960mb. Satellite imagery shows the inner core becoming better organised to, with an increase in convection within the eyewall, and the eye becoming better defined too. This is not good news for the Gulf Coast.

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Colleen A.
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane in Gulf, Hanna Moving West [Re: allan]
      #83571 - Sun Aug 31 2008 09:15 PM

I certainly hope for all the people along the Gulf Coast that Gustav does not intensify any more before she makes landfall. With her forward speed now at 17mph, she's going to be there much quicker than previously thought - I hope that gives everyone out in those traffic jams enough time to get to safety.
That being said ... has he hit the warmer waters of the GOM yet?
My thoughts and prayers to all those out there in Gustav's path.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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JulieTampa
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curvature of the earth [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #83572 - Sun Aug 31 2008 09:23 PM

I am a long-time lurker. I have noticed that we novices often think the NHC is wrong by a few degrees one way or another, but then the NHC's track verifies perfectly. For example, Gustav seems to trend to the right, but in fact will probably end up right where the experts predicted days ago. Could that be because the curvature of the Earth fools our eyes? I would be very interested to know.

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mcgowanmc
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane in Gulf, Hanna Moving West [Re: Colleen A.]
      #83573 - Sun Aug 31 2008 09:27 PM

Quote:

I certainly hope for all the people along the Gulf Coast that Gustav does not intensify any more before she makes landfall. With her forward speed now at 17mph, she's going to be there much quicker than previously thought - I hope that gives everyone out in those traffic jams enough time to get to safety.
That being said ... has he hit the warmer waters of the GOM yet?
My thoughts and prayers to all those out there in Gustav's path.




Hi, Colleen,

This is the Pam Hurricane worst case scenario. Whatever you've read about bowls, sinks and New Orleans is true.

The world that America knew is about to change. $5 gas by Friday.

And Gustav slowing to a Cat 1 in 48 hours while moving maybe 200 miles is 20 inches of rainfall.

Edited by mcgowanmc (Sun Aug 31 2008 09:28 PM)


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Colleen A.
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Re: curvature of the earth [Re: JulieTampa]
      #83574 - Sun Aug 31 2008 09:41 PM

Excellent question, Julie. I think it does have something to do with where the satellites are places and that sometimes fools our eyes...I've heard that more than once the last few days. I think a met could answer that question better than I can.
The NHC has been doing an excellent job with these storm tracks the last few years. I think it's because they have better technology. Also, they do not look at every wobble (like we do ) and make track changes until they see a trend in the models. They have also made a huge point in the last two or so years to tell us not to focus on the "black line"..which they do not use anymore. Atmospheric conditions can change and affect a storm .. like Gustav .. and that is why they have that cone.
I, personally, have much more faith now in the NHC track than I did a few years ago.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Raymond
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conflicting signs [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #83576 - Sun Aug 31 2008 09:43 PM

Pressure slightly drops to 956 hPa and cloud tops in parts of the central area are quite cold. But the dry air continues to eat away of the surrounding convection, especially on the eastern side. Also max. flight level wind is down to 97 kt during the last SW to NE center pass, with the SW part only with max. winds below 80 kt.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Gustav a Major Hurricane in Gulf, Hanna Moving West [Re: MikeC]
      #83579 - Sun Aug 31 2008 10:13 PM

Some good news tonight, it seems the dry air coming around from the west is wrapping in, slowing any intensification tonight. But some of the last visible pictures show some restrengthening too. So it's probably just slow restrengthening, not likely for Gustav to rapidly intensify again.


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berrywr
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Re: curvature of the earth [Re: Colleen A.]
      #83582 - Sun Aug 31 2008 11:03 PM

The 11 am discussion today made this very reference; the recon mission into the hurricane reported the center SW of what appeared to be an elliptical eye to the reported center's NE. That "eye" has been there all day with convection to it's west and south with a 20 knot southerly shear and that movement has been a pretty consistent 320 vector all day. I have had the center of this stomr NE of their positions all day today and again as of 5:15 pm ET when I had Gustav at 27.1N 87.1W which is 42 miles further north. I took into account the time of the satellite images, and the RAMDIS Rapidscan which those images are updated once every 7 minutes. The good news is, if the structure of Gustav remains as is, NOLA will be spared the drenching rain given it's lack of it on the east side and by the time it slows down, it will be far enough away it won't matter; that doesn't help W LA and E TX and AR, but who gets spared is always at the expense of who don't.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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bigpapi
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Re: curvature of the earth [Re: berrywr]
      #83586 - Sun Aug 31 2008 11:26 PM

Pressure down 3mb to 953. Eye closed now.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: curvature of the earth [Re: bigpapi]
      #83587 - Sun Aug 31 2008 11:30 PM

A. Time of Center Fix: 31st day of the month at 23:03:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°43'N 87°29'W (26.7167N 87.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 258 miles (415 km) to the S (184°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 953mb (28.14 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,038m (9,967ft)


L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 330° to 150° (NNW to SSE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 97kts (~ 111.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 21:00:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 90kts (~ 103.6mph) in the southeast quadrant at 23:08:20Z

Kermit is about to make a pass.... coming in from the NE side... AF went out to the SE side of the EYE



--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 31 2008 11:35 PM)


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Raymond
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Re: conflicting signs [Re: Raymond]
      #83589 - Sun Aug 31 2008 11:34 PM

Conflicting signs continue: cold cloud tops all around the center, strong bursts of convection in the now closed eyewall, outflow obviously improving, pressure dropping to 953 hpa. At the same time the dry air is now nearly all around the core region. And winds don´t pick up (yet).

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: conflicting signs [Re: Raymond]
      #83590 - Sun Aug 31 2008 11:38 PM

Cold cloud tops around the center, the closed eyewall, and the outflow improving (and certainly the pressure drop) are all BAD signs pointing to intensification. Dry air could prevent major intensification but I don't think it will be much of an issue unfortunately. The signs point toward a high-end Cat 3 or a Cat 4 as it approaches the coast. Hopefully it won't strengthen, but I don't think the dry air will win this battle.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Random Chaos
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Re: conflicting signs [Re: Hugh]
      #83591 - Sun Aug 31 2008 11:44 PM

Spectacular convection now circling the core. Looks like quite a few hot towers on the north side now, which had no convection just two hours ago.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html

RECON HDOB pass picked up 951-952mb pressure just now too.


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Hurikid
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Re: conflicting signs [Re: Hugh]
      #83592 - Sun Aug 31 2008 11:45 PM

Kermit went through the center. Pressure down to 951mb. 127.6 mph flight level winds found in NE eyewall. They seem to be heading back up the north western quad at the moment. We can see that Gustav is trying to get back on his feet. Hopefully the dry air and shear stop him from developing too quickly before he comes ashore.

Edited by Hurikid (Sun Aug 31 2008 11:45 PM)


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Raymond
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Re: conflicting signs [Re: Hurikid]
      #83594 - Sun Aug 31 2008 11:51 PM

By the way, where do you get the data from Kermit? I can´t find it on the NHC website.

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mcgowanmc
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Re: conflicting signs [Re: Random Chaos]
      #83595 - Sun Aug 31 2008 11:52 PM

Quote:

Spectacular convection now circling the core. Looks like quite a few hot towers on the north side now, which had no convection just two hours ago.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ft.html

RECON HDOB pass picked up 951-952mb pressure just now too.




That's right. Eye clearly visible. If Gustav stalls it'll be like a cracked flywheel.
He'll explode just South of Baton Rouge. E BR could flood all the way to L Pontchartrain.
Strengthening all the way in tonite.

"
Last Modified: Saturday, August 30, 2008 at 11:36 p.m.

HOUMA -- Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes can expect 20- to 25-foot wall of water to slam their coasts if Hurricane Gustav remained on what growing consensus of projections said could be a direct hit on the area, a New Orleans meteorologist said late tonight."

Watch the Bonnet Carre Spillway. It will get the highest surge. SLOSH model.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: conflicting signs [Re: mcgowanmc]
      #83596 - Mon Sep 01 2008 12:03 AM

Just a stern caution about 'alarmist' posts - they are not permitted here. Any news item at 11:36PM last night is now very much obsolete.
ED


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