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W at 21 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 146
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: LoisCane]
      #84043 - Thu Sep 04 2008 11:15 PM

I can't believe that after spending three days under Faye, and dodging the Hanna bullet Florida is now smack in the middle of the 5 day cone for a major hurricane. With the exception of the LBAR which has Ike going southwest, all the other models seem to agree that this time Florida is going to get it.

I guess that there still is a chance we might be spared. The NHC 11PM advisory says: THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE TURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UNTIL IT BECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM. But I still have a bad feeling about this one....

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 377
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #84049 - Fri Sep 05 2008 12:30 AM

All in Florida need to be on the watch for this one....it is giving me a sinking feeling (don't know how to quantify that....a tropical depression). this is one case where I hope the models are NOT as accurate as they were with Gustav. They pegged him hitting central Gulf Coast quite a distance out. As a side note, has anyone noticed the new satellite enhancements that the NHC has included on it's satellite page. We now get Funktop, RGB, rainbow....just a couple of things they never had on that page before. nice of them. OH and that 1926 comparison is scary. My dad always recounted he stories HIS dad told of that hurricane (I am 3rd gen floridian) and how he was part of gangs of men who had to bury the drowned out in what they call "the Glades' around Lake Okeechobee......That whole plot map looks eerily like many of this year's storms. One going across the south end from southeast like Fay, one into Louisiana, couple curling to the east and one that looks suspiciously like what Ike is projected to do. OK...time to test the generator!! Buckle up everyone.....going to be an interesting weekend....and I am NOT talking about football!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #84052 - Fri Sep 05 2008 01:02 AM

Yeah, oh what stories that generation had to tell on the 26 Cane. Yet, they didn't understand hurricanes and always referred to it as the First Storm and the Second Storm in articles. Except real old timers. My great-great-grandparents lived in the Keys, KW... my grandmother was only afraid of Cape Verde storms.. for a good reason. Though they were in Miami by 26 and 35.

Ike has spikes on all sides, bands.. long ones more visible tonight than last night. And, its raining lightly in Miami tonight from Hanna.

See what the models show next... good luck. Heard Jim Cantore talking tonight about the GOM scenario, caught my attention...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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hurricane expert
Really Not an Expert


Reged: Thu
Posts: 105
Loc: florida
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #84055 - Fri Sep 05 2008 01:20 AM

This storm is still five days out but i was also comparing a possibility track that ike might take similar to what hurricane donna once did in 1960. The possibility is there

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Donna_1960_track.png


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Bev
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 132
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL and Abaco, ...
Re: 12Z European shows big westward shift.. [Re: hurricane expert]
      #84056 - Fri Sep 05 2008 01:42 AM

The great Okeechobee Hurricane hit in 1928, killing 2500+ when the dike around the lake failed. The "new" dike is now 70 years old and local news reports from the area are that the army corps of engineers started releasing water from the lake today despite a two year record level drought to "relieve the stress on the 70 year old structure". Faye replenished the lake to normal levels, but apparently they are preparing for a "just in case" scenario.

I too, have heard the stories first hand about that disaster. My grandmother worked for a doctor in Clewiston when it struck. They tagged for a few days, but finally gave up and had large funeral pyres. Incredible to think that wasn't so long ago. She's still living to tell about it.

Okeechobee to Begin Pulse Releases
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/palmbeach/sfl-0903lakeo,0,6765361.story

1928 Okeechobee Hurricane track (it was quite a bit further south at this point than Ike is now)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1928_Okeechobee_hurricane_track.png


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: SeaMule]
      #84058 - Fri Sep 05 2008 01:48 AM

Very good points! And you're right; major hurricanes tend to create and/or modify the environments which they're in. For the moment Ike is a small hurricane, and is likely to be weakened by the shear which is now inhibiting outflow on it's north and west sides. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, Hanna spent a vacation down in the Turks and cooler SSTs should be a given, and God knows after this season why anybody in their right mind would live down there to start with; talk about a few islands with bullseyes painted on them! There are 3 models in the Florida Straits camp and 3 models in the Bahamas camp, and with each successive run the official forecast has been nudged west. Recent satellite loops show Ike now moving just south of due west. There simply isn't enough data at Day 4 plus to know where Ike is going other than there will be a COL between the mid continental ridge and bermuda ridge and Florida and the Florida panhandle in the middle and a shortwave/longwave trough axis to the north. Ike is no doubt certainly to slow down given this type of an environment and time and time again NHC has their track guidance down and I see no reason to question otherwise. Once again, good points! Y'all take care!

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: berrywr]
      #84060 - Fri Sep 05 2008 01:56 AM

agree with ya Bill... from what i am seeing in the model data... by the time Ike gets to the south Florida/Cuba area... steering currents will be weak AGAIN... i'm kinda curious how far west ike will get before he begins his turn north. was thinking it was going to be around the east coast of Florida, but now with the next ridge to set up middle next week may have other plans.... and with a weak trough dropping down to the SE US and swinging by.... GOING to be an interesting weakend for sure! Interesting 00Z GFS tonight

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Fri Sep 05 2008 02:03 AM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #84061 - Fri Sep 05 2008 02:59 AM

Its too early to know forsure, but right now its looking like a good threat to the Florida Keys. This is just south of the GFS but north of the GFDL. The eastern cone looks like Paradise island Bahamas-Freeport Bahamas-Just off the east coast along 80W. The center cone takes it to near or just west of Andros Island-Central and Northern Keys and up the Florida Peninsula. The western outline is now interacting with Cuba-west of Key West- off the west coast of Florida- Towards Biloxi and east to the Florida Panhandle.
This isnt a forecast, just speculation and Ill make my first offical forecast later on Saturday since then it will be 3 days away from a possible landfall. We have plenty of time. We need to see more Data go into the models, which model is running best (GFDL or GFS or Compromise them), also the pattern over the continental U.S. for early next week. If this interacts with Cuba, it will be much weaker and may move more west into the extreme NW carribean (ala GFDL) or the ridge may not be as orientated in the NE-SW and be more E-W and keep IKE more westerly towards Andros Island by late Sunday.


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native
Weather Guru


Reged: Tue
Posts: 148
Loc: SE Florida
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: scottsvb]
      #84064 - Fri Sep 05 2008 06:26 AM

Great, just great. I woke up at 5am on the money to sound of dripping.

I have a small leak in my roof apparently. It has filled the cooler I've placed underneath it up one inch since that time. And it's only coming down in two places one drop at a time...although one right after the other. BOO!

I hope this rain lets up later today so that I can make a run to Home Depot for a few gallons of tar.

Just an FYI....my neighbor came home last night all excited that Home Depot had the metal shutter panels on sale for 60% off. I think maybe I'll get some shutters. Hopefully I won't need them for Ike but atleast I'll have them. Those shutters are the only thing missing from my hurricane preparedness "kit".


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 415
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: native]
      #84065 - Fri Sep 05 2008 06:35 AM

My short term prediction: Like last night, Ike will again be south of the next forecast point, which is 18UTC, This will cause another adjustment to the longer term forecast track to the south. As for the longer term track, it is still up in the air. There are not as many variables in play as was with Hanna and Fay, but it is still to early to tell. All eyes on both coasts of Florida should be watching this guy over the weekend.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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Patrick99
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #84073 - Fri Sep 05 2008 07:38 AM

Wow, this is going to be a close call here in Miami. It would seem that no matter what happens, we are going to get *something*; it's just a question of degrees. The possibility of a 3-4 on a 1926 type track isn't something I really want to contemplate, with my family in the Gables.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 326
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Patrick99]
      #84077 - Fri Sep 05 2008 08:33 AM Attachment (706 downloads)

To all FYI an excerpt from the HPC this morning also attached latest micro pass from around 8:27 AM EDT. IKE is actually showing very strong stucture at the surface on the North side. You can clearly make out the eye below the dense overcast.
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
441 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008

VALID 12Z TUE SEP 09 2008 - 12Z FRI SEP 12 2008

MAJOR HURRICANE IKE IS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY DURING THE MEDIUM
RANGE WEATHER FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN EXPECTED TRACK THROUGH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT MOVES THROUGH AN
ANTICIPATED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK USED WAS
MODIFIED TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM CONTINUITY DUE TO DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN THE ONGOING TPC TRACK AND ONGOING MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUITY.
THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED AGAIN WITH NHC AGAIN AT 16Z...IN TIME FOR
THE AFTERNOON PRESSURES ISSUANCE.

Edited by craigm (Fri Sep 05 2008 09:13 AM)


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Patrick99]
      #84078 - Fri Sep 05 2008 08:37 AM

Current trend on IKE is that it is actually south of the forecast track right now.
That will tend toward a general south and west shift in the cone, but the east side of the cone will still be off shore, IMO. That is because the weakness in between the two high pressure systems steering the system may be relativly more pronounced, especially if Hanna gains strenght today and goes into Cat 1 status for a while. Hanna is performing beyond expectations from yesterday's appearance and the LLC has tucked in beneath the convection, and it looks decidedly tropical rather than extra tropiclal as it was described yesterday, so there is a chance the weakness will be pronounced enough to keep IKE off any land. However, if IKE does not slow down and stays south of the current track the odds on an off. shore solution go down. I ageree with Scott that it will be Saturday p.m. to get any confidence.
One more thing on the confidence...NHC uses all the models and has consensus models...once they lock into the concensus that track is usually pretty tight, especially for 72 hours. I have also noted NHC track is not ever too far from the HRWF or GFS in reaching the concensus.

--------------------
doug


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 423
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: doug]
      #84087 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:24 AM

Agree with the others, Ike is further south of his forecast position so we should see another shift of the cone, the models are trending south as well.

Now once he reaches the islands he'll be in an area of weak steering currents and as we've seen with Fay and Hanna this could cause problems. However if he continues to track south he might hit Cuba sparing us in FL from hurricane force winds. The only thing that worries me is a NW turn will occur at some point... so we're back to the timing issue: a sooner turn brings him into Palm Beach, a later turn puts him into the middle Keys, an even later turn and this becomes a GOM storm! Just keep in mind since he is small storm there would major differences in the effects your local city would feel depending on the local of final landfall.

Currently Ike is an area of some NNW shear so figure on drop down to Cat 2 status and more southerly track today. And as stated before: Monday seems to be the key day to figure out if Ike will effect Florida or not.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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iso
Unregistered




Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: JMII]
      #84090 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:37 AM

Hannah a little over 100 miles due east of my location this morning:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=MLB&loop=yes
I'm observing intermittent moderate to occassionally heavy rain with a steady NNW wind of 18 mph, gusting to 30 in the heavier "squalls". Measured nearly 1" of rain since 5 am this morning, not good for the ongoing flooding in the St. Johns River basin near SR 46/Lake Harney area.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: JMII]
      #84091 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:38 AM

Messy models all in all. Tampa isn't out of it.. no can't say that, neither is the whole Gulf. Really does seem a Florida storm one way or the other.. either a direct hit or we get caught in the northern part of the storm and get a lot of wind and rain.

By the way, Collins Avenue in Miami was flooded driving to work today from non-stop rain from Hanna. This isn't a location comment on my weather as much as a concern that Miami and parts of Florida may not have time to dry out before the rains from Ike hit this region. A real 1 2 3 punch round here it seems.

So... beginning to buy into the bigger dip and the slow sharp NW movement later. Rather not be directly hit by a Cat 3 or 4 but a real possibilty.

Hanna seems to be taking the west side of her cone I think from watching radar imagery not just sat and Ike is a drop south I think which portends a more SW movement I think earlier rather than later but for how long? Maybe her weather mass is more to the left but either way her weather is what's going to cause a mess up and down the Eastern Seaboard.

Where is the trough? It's weak now.. I don't see the real steering mechanism that can lift Ike before landfall or crawl down through the Straits.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_us_loop-12.html

Show me the front that is going to take Ike away before Florida.. I don't see it.

Watching NHC and waiting for their 11 AM ..

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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iso
Unregistered




Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: iso]
      #84094 - Fri Sep 05 2008 09:44 AM

sorry for my last post in this lounge- it should've been in the Hannah conditions section. (got caught up in the moment with heavy rain falling)

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PensacolaWX
Registered User


Reged: Thu
Posts: 3
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: iso]
      #84099 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:00 AM

Well it looks like Ike is already on a WSW track ahead of schedule while looking at the latest satellite passes and will pass well south of the forecasted track. For us gulf coast residents, I don't like that fuzzy feeling I get when it looks like a storm will make it into the Gulf. I hate to wish another beating on the people of Cuba, but it should rip the storm apart if it interacts with Cuba from East to West.

But the latest GFDL model keeps Ike a Cat 2 all the way over a long trek over Cuba. How is that possible???


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Kris
Unregistered




Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: iso]
      #84100 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:00 AM

Hi Folks,
I've been watching this forum for two days now. Hurricane Ike is starting to cause some stress for me and my wife. We live in Tampa FL and are also scheduled to go on a Cruise to the Bahamas on Thursday the 11th. At this point I am hoping this storm misses FL all together but obviously its too early to know for sure. I'd like to pose a question to the experts here. If Ike does come to FL would the thought be more that it's an eastern or western coast threat ?

Thanks


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: intensity forecasts for Ike will be a crap shoot [Re: Kris]
      #84103 - Fri Sep 05 2008 10:08 AM

Ike is way south of the tropical forecasted points right now.. can't wait to see the 11 am.

Check out the wv loop, really about to be pushed sw i think... or wsw

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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