MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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September 10th 11 AM Update
Ike is slowly strengthening, and generally moving west northwest.
The track has not changed much from last night. Ike is now a large storm, hurricane force winds extend 80 miles out from the center.
September 9th 6 PM Update
Hurricane Ike has finally exited Cuba and is in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
The cone has certainly shown its use today, as models this morning were trending south, now they are trending a bit north, and along with them the long term Forecast. This puts the greater risk to the central and northern Texas coasts this evening.
Intensity wise it appears Ike's core is intact enough to allow for strengthening, and it likely will as it enters the warm Gulf, as it nears the western Gulf, however, shear is expected to increase, which would cap how strong Ike gets. Ike has a chance to go over one warm eddy, and that's when I'd look for any rapid strengthening.
The track as it stands tonight (it will likely change again) takes it inland between Corpus Christi and Galveston, sear San Antonio bay. The cone, however reaches into Mexico and north toward Louisiana. The National Hurricane Center notes that some of the dynamic models are north of the current track, and depending on the trends could move a little more in that direction later.
By tomorrow things should start to gel and a general landfall area will become more clear. Areas to just to the north and east of the system's landfall location would see the worst storm surge, and areas where the eyewall impacts would see the worst winds from Ike. Ike is currently forecast to be a Category 3 hurricane upon landfall, but it could be stronger or weaker depending on how much shear affects it later in its lifetime.
Those in the 3 day cone (solid white) should pay attention to local media and officials along with local weather statements for more information.
There is about a 15-20% chance that Ike will become a Category 4 storm again. Watches, warnings or beginnings of Evacuations may be done in certain areas along the Texas coast as early as tomorrow afternoon or Thursday, stay tuned to local sources for more information. Ike is turning into a large storm, and winds will affect a good area of coastline. If you are in the solid white cone of Ike, especially on the right hand side, I would start to prepare and plan tomorrow.
It is currently traveling West Northwest
September 9th 6 AM Update
Hurricane Ike, containing a small eye, is weaker this morning, but still maintains a decent pressure, and is offshore south of Cuba, moving generally westward. It still has not moved into the Gulf, and may make landfall in Cuba near where Gustav made landfall there before. It's generally heading westward, the cone now only includes Central Mexico north to around Galveston/Houston in Texas. With the most likely area north of Brownsville and south of Corpus Christi.
Model projections move it further west, so it could be closer toward the Texas Mexico border or in Mexico, but this is still too early to tell. It does appear that points east are much less likely to see anything at all from Ike, even the Keys were not affected much because Ike stayed generally south of Cuba.
Outside of Ike, there really isn't anything else going on now. Josephine's remnants have for the most part dissipated, and none of the waves off Africa did much, so it looks like there may be a short break for a few days outside of Ike.
Original Update
Hurricane Ike made lanfall in the Las Tunas Province of Cuba overnight and has weakened to a Category 2 hurricane because of land interaction. it is expected to continue moving westward today through Cuba and most likely will stay over land the entire trek, eventually entering the Gulf south and west of Havana. It is forecast to weaken all the way to a Tropical Storm. The storm has moved a little south this morning, so the forecast track may be off some. This may allow it back over the waters of the Caribbean for a bit.
Once back in the Gulf, restrengthening will be determined by just how much Ike was disrupted. The track is expected to move then more northwestward and enter the Central Gulf, beyond three days it's just too soon to tell. Until Ike has cleared Cuba a bit, the entire Gulf Coast, from Mexico to the Florida Panhandle will need to watch Ike. Current guidance trends put Northeast Texas and Louisiana with the highest probability of Ike getting near, but it is mich too soon to tell with any confidence.
Ike Microwave imagery (MIMIC) (More MIMIC)
Texas Emergency Management Reports
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Corpus Christi, TX, Houston/Galveston, Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Brownsville, TX
Emergency Management:
Texas Division of Emergency Management
Links to Texas County Emergency Management
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite
Local Media/Television
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston
Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio
Newspapers
Houston Chronicle
Corpus Christi Caller-Times
Color Sat of Gulf (Animation)
Cuba Mosaic radar recording of Ike Approach
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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It sure looks like the center of Ike is going to make it to the SOUTH coast of Cuba.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
The southern portion of the eye wall is already leaving the coast.
Sure will be interesting to see the actual location of the center at 08/18UTC
If Ike does make it to the South Coast, will be interesting to see if he ramps back up to a Cat. 3
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Not much room for the eye South of Cuban coast. The water will help a bit but The Cuban terrain has mountains that will not be conducive to strengthening. I see a Cat 1 at best entering the Gulf and like Gustav, Ike will have a struggle to regain CAT 3 or 4 intensity.
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wickedwitch
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Would someone direct me to a graphic that would show updated GOM water temperatures? I am new here. I am guessing water temperature would be the primary kick-start for Ike after leaving Cuba?
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Ike looks rather skeletal right now with not much in the way of vigorous convection, but the overall structure of the storm is very healthy. The center has pushed offshore, which will give it an opportunity to at least hold its own if not intensify a little bit. That is not guaranteed, though, as it is still close enough to the coast to suffer adverse effects. It appears to be moving very slightly north of due west, but there is no sign of a definitive turn to the WNW yet.
To answer the question above, the link below has information on SST and TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) for the Gulf:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html
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Tazmanian93
Weather Master
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Loc: Tampa
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Not sure if someone is sending this already; Here you go
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.shtml
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Don't knock the weather; nine-tenths of the people couldn't start a conversation if it didn't change once in a while.
Go Bucs!!!!!!!!!
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Ed
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SM22
Registered User
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Quote:
Ike looks rather skeletal right now with not much in the way of vigorous convection, but the overall structure of the storm is very healthy. The center has pushed offshore, which will give it an opportunity to at least hold its own if not intensify a little bit. That is not guaranteed, though, as it is still close enough to the coast to suffer adverse effects. It appears to be moving very slightly north of due west, but there is no sign of a definitive turn to the WNW yet.
To answer the question above, the link below has information on SST and TCHP (tropical cyclone heat potential) for the Gulf:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html
I agree. Looks like a movement to the NW. Maybe just a wobble.
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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Recon just reached the center of Ike, it looks like. Based on the HDOBs, it looks like the advisory estimate of 85 kts (100 mph) may be considerably too high. Flight-level winds near the center on their approach were not strong at all and the pressure gradient looks like it is pretty flat, indicating that there is no well-defined inner core.
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Loc: Germany
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Yes, central pressure up to around 969 hPa and winds hardly justify a hurricane. Let´s see, if they`ll find some higher winds. So Ike has weakened quite more than expected!
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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If Ike has weakened this much this is extremely good news. Let's hope the hills of Cuba take even more of a toll on this storm so when it emerges into the Gulf that it has difficult time re energizing.
Let's hope the news continues to be good on the deterioration of Ikes winds and pressure.
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Loc: Germany
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But also remember, that there is bad news behind this good news. Ike weakened, because he passed over land and the people there suffered greatly.
Meteorological news: All dynamical modells track Ike to different spots in Texas (12:00 UTC runs). So there is better agreement now between the modells.
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Beach
Weather Guru
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Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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Well Ike might get the big 1 2 sucker punch.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
Sure looks like the center is diving back towards the
inland. Certainly will help out the folks in the keys.
Long run over land should give it a good wack.
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kromdog
Weather Hobbyist
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Quote:
Well Ike might get the big 1 2 sucker punch.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
Sure looks like the center is diving back towards the
inland. Certainly will help out the folks in the keys.
Long run over land should give it a good wack.
This track may weaken the storm, but also may bring it out of Cuba closer to the keys.
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SeaMule
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Loc: Fairhope, Al...on the coast
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Hurricane Frederic in 1979 weakened to a depression after leaving Cuba.....and slammed into Mobile as a cat 3....strong cat 3...
if Ike maintains a cat 1 intensity...once it reaches the gulf...there will be plenty of time for it to ramp up. Since small deviations in the direction now extrapolate to huge distances five days out...look for the "cone" to continually change. The models are in agreement...which makes me somewhat agreeable to the 's forecast. However, as I recall, Hurricane was supposed to slam into Texas...Houston....remember?
it went much East. they tend to go more north..as they get more north...the polar coriolis effect?
Can the high pressure ridges that are in place cause the hurricane to slow it's forward speed? I would look at that too.
no one is out of the woods, from Texas...to the Florida Panhandle...and even the keys...
imho
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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist
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Loc: Oklahoma
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A late-arriving vortex message that was valid about an hour ago had the pressure down to 965 mb from 970 mb, with flight-level winds up to 73 kts. It was still reporting a concentric eyewall structure, but the inner eyewall had shrunk to 10 mi in diameter (from 15) and the outer eyewall had shrunk to 50 mi wide (from 60). The center fix also confirmed a more northerly motion that seems to be evident on recent satellite images. Whether or not this is the start of the expected turn to the WNW remains to be seen.
edit: A subsequent vortex message has the pressure at 967 mb, with the other information the same. I take it the plane is having communications problems, because it stopped sending HDOBs 2 hours ago and the vortex messages have been coming in late.
Edited by Thunderbird12 (Mon Sep 08 2008 05:47 PM)
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Allison
Weather Guru
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Loc: Laredo, Texas
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The last few shots of the visible satellite looks like Ike is headed back over land:
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html
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Allison
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flahurricane
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just as I thought the models were doing a great job moving Ike westward. This will be a Texas storm. Keys probably will get tropical storm conditions.
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Raymond
Weather Guru
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Loc: Germany
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Yes, center fixes, cuban radar and high res visible satellite confirm a WNW-motion, somtimes even wobbling NW. So after some reorganzition and slight restrengthening during the last hours over water the center is now at the coastline and runs into the montains of central Cuba and the center should stay for a longer time more inland again (but relatively close to the coast at the beginning). So there should be some more of weakening and I can hardly imagine a to see a hurricane emerging in the Gulf later on.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
just as I thought the models were doing a great job moving Ike westward. This will be a Texas storm. Keys probably will get tropical storm conditions.
It's still too early to say with certainty that Ike will be a Texas storm. Certainly current models point that way, as does the official forecast... but... Ike appears to have already made its second landfall over Cuba, just a few hours after moving offshore. It's too early to determine if this is a wobble or a definitive change in motion, of course, but it appears that Ike is a considerable distance north of the forecast track.
Edit: Local (WALA FOX 10 in Mobile) weather just said "we could be getting some rain from Ike later in the week"... if Ike were certain to move to Texas, Mobile would not get rain, would it?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Mon Sep 08 2008 07:01 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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This storm has been as steady as I can remember a storm and unlike a few earlier ones this year..
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2008_09L/webManager/displayJavaBy12hr_21.html
just an amazing look at a storm who doesn't give up
they have been forecasting that slow turn to wnw so imagine it will happen as they have been very good with the track from day to day, especially with Ike
definitely north of forecasted point.. almost looks to be moving faster
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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