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CoconutCandy
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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Apparent Discrepancy in 92L's 2pm Information ??
      #87544 - Sun Jun 13 2010 03:15 PM

Not sure if anyone else has noticed, but there *appears* to be a discrepancy in the 2pm TWO and the 2pm TWD, or Tropical Weather Discussion.

As mentioned in the main thread, at 2pm the NHC has already increased it's probability to 50% for cyclone development in the next 48 hours. Additionally, they mention ...

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ...

However! In the 2pm Tropical Discussion, the following info appears ...

A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ... FOCUSED ON A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 7N 35W. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SURROUNDING THE LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ... THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA IS HELPING TO VENTILATE CONVECTION AND SUSTAIN LIFT IN THE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW APPEAR NOT TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

What gives? It seems that it's almost certainly a typo, but just the inclusion of the word 'NOT' is in direct opposition with the wording in the TWO.

Question: How does one contact the TPC / NHC and inform them of the situation so they may take corrective action? No big deal here, obviously, but there must be some recourse for the public to contact them, to correct the inadvertent wording of their discussion.

I've never called the NHC directly, so maybe some of you might be able to suggest how best to proceed. Thanks.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Apparent Discrepancy in 92L's 2pm Information ?? [Re: CoconutCandy]
      #87546 - Sun Jun 13 2010 06:19 PM

TPC caught it and corrected at 2:40PM EST. TWD now reads:

"THE UPPER AND
LOWER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW
INDICATE A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."

In the interest of time both the NHC and TPC use a lot of 'cut and paste' (so does your local NWS office) from one bulletin to the next - and sometimes a 'gotcha' gets ya

There were other differences as well: pressure was assigned by NHC as 1010mb and by TPC as 1012mb. As is common with a developing system, the location was relocated (as in shifted) north to 8N 36W - but centerpoint has adjusted a little more to the west as of 13/21Z - about 8.0N and 36.5W as indicated by the last visible imagery.
Cheers,
ED

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