WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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Looking at the water vapor imagery and visible satellites, it appears to be the upper-level low to its
north that is at this time shearing 97L apart. Until it can distance itself from the low some more, it will
continue having trouble becoming organized. I think that late tonight/tomorrow will be the time it
begins to develop more.
It does look like a landfall somewhere between Houston and New Orleans is increasing since 97L
will likely remain somewhat weak for the next day or so.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Well, WU's model page now shows that all of those models have shifted.. northward. But, says those are the 06Z models, not the 12Z runs (WU says they're from 8am EDT). They barely take it into the GOM at all. Regardless of strength, I don't see this getting west of Louisiana.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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rgd
Weather Hobbyist
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I'm looking at the visible loop, and 20N 70W looks pretty close to me, but your positioning is plausible too, Mike. Overall, it looks a bit like somethng took a knife to the whole system overnight. says it's still code red, but down to 60%, and I think that's very generous - but then again, I thought 70% last night was too low. Models haven't shifted southward to correspond to a shallower system, though, which is curious. In fact, models (at 2am, I haven't seen the 8am run yet) are in very disturbing agreement, that ultimate landfall will be in the Florida panhandle, near Ft. Walton Beach. That there is so much agreement this far out is alarming.
Edit: Just went to Skeetobyte, which has the 12Z model runs. They all point to the LA/TX border.
You understand it is not even developed yet so the models are really out to dry till it does to say Florida panhandle is insane.In fact the newer ones have it going north more and up the north coast of Florida.
Until it OR IF it becomes a storm the models are really of little use.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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You understand it is not even developed yet so the models are really out to dry till it does to say Florida panhandle is insane.In fact the newer ones have it going north more and up the north coast of Florida.
Until it OR IF it becomes a storm the models are really of little use.
Yeah, um, if you look RIGHT ABOVE YOUR POST you will see where I posted that the newer models show it barely going into the Gulf.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
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Have to agree on the limited benefit that the models provide at this time; at least until a better organized core forms.
No doubt that the upper low to the systems north, is having havoc with the system. Interesting to note however, that satellite presentation of this cold low would seem to indicate that it is warming some. Still, for the time being and in tandum with the inflow to its south being temporarily cut off by Hispanola, conditions for rapid development are just not there. This all said, the system should progress WNW over warmer water and with regeneration of convection over what might at least be a more evident COC north of Hispanola, that a reasonable chance still exists for development into a TS prior to reaching Florida. Good news is that the threat of a worse impact has gone way way down.
Small core systems certainly have the potential to deepen quicker than larger systems especially given high octane fuel ( SST's ). Until we have a developed tropical depression though, that risk becomes that much smaller. Still, plenty of time for things to change for those in the gulf.
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MikeC
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The system appears to have been hindered a bit by the dry air, mountains of Hispaniola, and some shear along with the upper level low. It'll reach better conditions gradually through tomorrow, I still think it may develop tomorrow.
Convection is still off, but the overall structure is improving.
South Florida still is the most likely location where it may go, but at most as a Tropical Storm.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Convection seems to be making a bit of a comeback as the day progresses. We'll have to see if it persists or gets sheared again. If recon hadn't been cancelled today, I think they would have had enough evidence to classify this thing as TD Three. It also appears to have gained a considerable amount of latitude, which may put more of the east coast of Florida in the path.
On the other hand, maybe I'm blind,because the actually DOWNGRADED it at the 2pm , to code orange at 50%.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Wed Jul 21 2010 05:38 PM)
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danielw
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
106 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010
VALID JUL 21/1200 UTC THRU JUL 25/0000 UTC
excerpt~danielw
...TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
THE NAM...UKMET...AND 00Z ALL HANDLE THIS SYSTEM COMPARABLY.
THE IS SLOWER...EXTENDING THE INVERTED TROUGH FARTHER NORTH.
THE MIDDAY MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION WITH TPC RESULTED IN A
FORECAST OF A SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO DAY 3.
?? Northwest corner on Day 3. Should that be NE Corner??~danielw
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
837 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 25 2010 - 12Z WED JUL 28 2010
excerpt
THE PRESSURES STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/06Z
PARALLEL...BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 06Z PARALLEL/00Z
ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE AFTER MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAINTAINS
REASONABLE CONTINUITY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE TO
ENHANCE DEFINITION... AND TO YIELD A COMPROMISE FCST BETWEEN
FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD CONTINUITY VERSUS THE MAJORITY OF LATEST
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. A PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ALOFT ALONG
WITH VERIFICATION OF RECENT FEATURES FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST FAVORED BY POINTS MENTIONED ON THE 16Z
NHC/MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION CALL YESTERDAY...HENCE THE SOUTHWEST
ADJUSTMENT. A PERSISTENT LACK OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS
SYSTEM CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW STRONG OF A FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS DISTURBANCE.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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If I read that the way it's written it sounds like it says the system will head to Texas (NW Gulf) as opposed to "recurving" towards Florida.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I'm beginning to have doubts that this system will develop into anything significant - nothing more than an open wave or, at most, a TD. The 12Z works a weak system crossing FL, 12Z shows only an open wave moving through the FL Straights, and the HWRF seems to be a bit overly aggressive in its 12Z run. The next 24 hours will either confirm my suspicions or something miraculous will happen.
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Michael
PWS
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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the NW part of GOM should be the NW part of GOM... Typo error by HPC.
See attachment done by TPC for 72hr forecast
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Jul 21 2010 06:28 PM)
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Evan Johnson
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anyone notice the flare up @ 70, 22?
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Doombot!
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I'm going againts the grain here, but I'm seeing both a return of a feature with rotation around it. If this trend continues, I would think code red at 8PM and TD at 11PM.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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I don't see a LLC and the mid-level circulation is West of the convection indicating a high shear environment continues to exist over the system. I still don't see this developing in the short term.
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Michael
PWS
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B_from_NC
Verified CFHC User
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Certainly has a LLC. Its just south of the Turks.
1KM Loop
Convection is starting to flare around the LLC but with the shear it will be hard pressed to make it around. Still a waiting game. Has a lot of negative for the next 24 hours or so.
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Lived in S. Fla from '90-'07...
Put up and took down way too many hurricane shutters!
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Evan Johnson
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Certainly has a LLC. Its just south of the Turks.
1KM Loop
Convection is starting to flare around the LLC but with the shear it will be hard pressed to make it around. Still a waiting game. Has a lot of negative for the next 24 hours or so.
yeah there is barely a low level circulation, but its there, well visible in that loop.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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It appears that the ULL is moving out to the WNW a little quicker than 97L is moving WNW. That should permit a anti-cyclonic upper flow to begin to enhance ventilation and potential development. Tomorrow is the key. If there is no closed low tomorrow then the chances of a classified system developing before it closes on South Florida are greatly diminished. That does not mean that storm type conditions would not effect the lower half of the peninsula Friday-
Saturday, however.
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doug
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MikeC
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It appears that the ULL is moving out to the WNW a little quicker than 97L is moving WNW. That should permit a anti-cyclonic upper flow to begin to enhance ventilation and potential development. Tomorrow is the key. If there is no closed low tomorrow then the chances of a classified system developing before it closes on South Florida are greatly diminished. That does not mean that storm type conditions would not effect the lower half of the peninsula Friday-
Saturday, however.
There is still no low level circulation is correct, if one were to form tomorrow it would probably be right near or just south of the Caicos islands in the Caicos Bank. But the make or break will be tomorrow. This area has spawned a few notable storms in the past (including the formation of TD#10 in 2005), but not really in July.
It has on more night of shear (tonight) to survive before conditions improve tomorrow. The upper level low is moving out toward the west now, away from the system.. If it makes it through relatively intact tonight then it has a real shot for development tomorrow. Track wise it's still seems south Florida/straits is the odds favorite, again deepening if it develops tomorrow or not. If it doesn't develop tomorrow, chances drop off greatly it will this side of Florida.
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MikeC
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A new area (98L) Is being tracked in the Bay of Campeche, this was the wave mentioned earlier in the week in the outlook that was in the West Caribbean at the time. 20.0N 92.8W
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Good afternoon! The strong tropical wave as expected has become more disorganized as upper winds are not favorable for development. Surprisingly with the lone exception of San Juan there was no mention of the low...upper level cutoff low and shortwave just to the north and immediate west of the tropical wave. It is this ULL that has resulted in the wave becoming weak. There is considerable subsidence on the back side of the shortwave extending from this ULL.
The 12Z model package all all unanimous in this wave not closing off and it continuing west and west-northwest across FL in 24 to 36 hours and into the GOM tracking west to the TX/KA coast in 72 to 96 hours as the upper ridge over the SE USA stengthens and extends into the Atlantic with east to west flow across the Gulf states and FL.
A purely tropical depression/storm is out of the question for the near term, though one cannot rule out a hybrid.
There continues to remain the possibility that beyond this forecast window and the wave enters the GOM that the upper air will be more conducive for development.
An area I've been looking at is the huge plume of tropical moisture on water vapor satellite over the western GOM extending south to the Yucatan. That said, I haven't looked at that region in depth or pressures at the surface to comment in depth.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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