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Very quiet now as shear and dry Saharan air cover much of the Atlantic
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 295 (Nicholas) , Major: 311 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1364 (Michael) Major: 1364 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Wave Looking Weaker This Morning [Re: MikeC]
      #88278 - Wed Jul 21 2010 06:38 PM

I just made a comment about that entire area and I like it's chances than the wave north of Hispanola. If that area does develop into something it is only a threat to TX and MX...the ridge over the SE USA will prohibit it from moving anywhere near the northern gulf and points east. I'll know more when the 00Z package comes out tonight and I take an indepth look at the upper air package tonight,

A word of caution....if the wave over Hispanola remains a shallow...these two areas will likely merge at some point beyond 48 hours. It is impossible at this time to say how the two interacting with one another if there is any level of development of either or both.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Watching Two Systems [Re: MikeC]
      #88279 - Wed Jul 21 2010 06:56 PM

As I've commented on the other thread concerning the system over Hispanola...this area bears watching...Mike's right! A quick look...I'll comment more later on this system...it doesn't appear that this particular system will be over water long enough for anything to come of it and models depict the TUTT to the north to move west under the upper ridge which in turn would depict a west movement to this disturbance. This is the third system this season. It should be added that there has been some sort of upper level low, east coast longwave trough over the Western Atlantic for a good part of the season which is right up Ed's alley.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: Watching Two Systems [Re: berrywr]
      #88280 - Wed Jul 21 2010 07:13 PM

97L appears to be organizing once again. It seems to be shaking that pesky upper-low to some extent since the upper-low is outrunning the speed at which 97L is moving. It will be interesting to see what the models show in just
a little while; at this time, I think a landfall between Biloxi, Mississippi and Houston, Texas seems more likely than earlier due to 97L's delayed development.

I don't know just yet, as far as where 98L will go, but I figure North Central Mexico is the most likely place. Of course, with no model runs on 98L yet, my guess could be wrong.


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Watching Two Systems [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88281 - Wed Jul 21 2010 07:20 PM

It (97L) is still not the most organized system I've ever seen, but... if there's no LLC, I'm blind.
Convection is, once again, beginning to build over the "non-existent" LLC, in fact. We'll see what the NHC
says in 30 minutes or so, but I would think it would be bumped back up to code red again. It actually looks very close to depression status right now, but I said the same thing 24 hours ago.

update: 8pm TWO is out, and I'm obviously blind.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Wed Jul 21 2010 07:43 PM)


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allan
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 468
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: Watching Two Systems [Re: Hugh]
      #88282 - Wed Jul 21 2010 07:37 PM

After looking at the CIMMS shear map, shear is already relaxing over 97L (currently 10-20 knots) as the ULL is moving fairly quickly to the west, and away from the invest. The NHC will probably keep percentages at 50%. Though tonight into tomorrow, there will be a battle for the spotlight! 98L will probably start with a code orange 30-40% on the next TWO do to the conditions it's in and the organized feature it is. I won't be surprised to see Bonnie and Colin in the Atlantic tomorrow, this would shut an end to a quite start. Most Julys get up to about B or C for average.

--------------------
Allan Reed - 18,9,5


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Watching Two Systems [Re: allan]
      #88284 - Wed Jul 21 2010 07:45 PM

They put 97L at 40% and 98L at 30% (both code orange). The TWO actually said that 97L was "disorganized"?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
Re: Watching Two Systems [Re: allan]
      #88285 - Wed Jul 21 2010 07:48 PM

I don't see that happening...too much negative influence on all of these systems.

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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: Watching Two Systems [Re: MikeC]
      #88287 - Wed Jul 21 2010 08:47 PM

The early 00Z round of models shows a landfall centered on Louisiana similar to what I mentioned in my previous post. Still awaiting the model runs on 98L... so will update and comment more as soon as they do .

None of the models take 98L near the U.S. coast, so no worries there .

Edited by WesnWylie (Wed Jul 21 2010 09:28 PM)


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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Watching Two Systems [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88288 - Wed Jul 21 2010 09:06 PM

So much for "it's not going to Texas" I guess. Until it forms, models are junk.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
Re: Watching Two Systems [Re: Hugh]
      #88289 - Wed Jul 21 2010 11:57 PM Attachment (352 downloads)

I have attached an infrared satellite image of 97L as of 0340. It looks to me that it is now in the process of trying to close off a low-level circulation. It helps if you play the loop from the link below. I think the NHC will up the chance for development from a code orange to a code red by the 8:00 a.m. EDT update, and that we will have a tropical depression tomorrow. I don't care for the Louisiana/Texas landfall that most of the models are painting, but we do need the rain in our area, just not the wind. Tomorrow will be the decider whether 97L will be something to closely monitor or not.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satellit...ig&itype=ir


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L [Re: MikeC]
      #88290 - Thu Jul 22 2010 01:11 AM

Good evening and early morning! The NHC downgraded from 70 percent to 40 percent the probability of 97L becoming a tropical depression.

Tonight there is an upper level low between 850 and 500 mbs located almost directly over the disturbance and an upper low at 300 and 200 mbs over the Northern Bahamas. NHC sampled extensively the area this evening and reported wind shear and dry air as the primary causes as to why the wave has not developed.

This upper level low is not vertically stacked as depicted at various levels this evening and the overall system has moved very little over the past 12 hours and appears to have deepened as water vapor imagery clearly shows an elongated north to south upper level low.

This ULL has resulted in wind shear aloft between 30 and 40 knots directly to the west of the system and continues to impact the system tonight.

There is strong thunderstorm activity underneath the upper level low but that is not unusual nor is it uncommon for depressions to develop under an upper level low.

I see nothing on tonight's upper level analysis and 21/18Z model run to suggest this system will develop into something serious though the track is through the oil slick and to LA.

The axis of the wave is right along this axis of dry/moisture axis and as long as this persists; 97L will remain a wave.

Conclusion....I cannot rule out this system may become a depression, but it's going to be slow and it's going to be in a hostile environment. It will have a better opportunity to develop once west of FL and the ULL leaves itself of the area.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 98L [Re: berrywr]
      #88291 - Thu Jul 22 2010 01:17 AM

Invest 98L continues to organize and is a better candidate to become a tropical depression. That said, the upper air environment will drive this system directly into the NE MEX coast and is no threat to the United States.

There is an upper ridge directly over Alabama this evening and will continue to build over the Atlantic Ocean with Invest 97L and inverted upper level shortwave/low moving west and west-northwest under the ridge with models depicting LA as "landfall." These two features will force 98L northwest.

The good news...the system won't be over water long enough to become serious.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L [Re: berrywr]
      #88292 - Thu Jul 22 2010 06:33 AM

Very good analysis. That is the same thing I've been seeing with 97L over the last two days. I'm looking forward to some rain and slightly "cooler" weather here this weekend. If 97L is to pull itself together at all, it will be in the GOM.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 915
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: July 22-00Z Model Package - Invest 97L [Re: MichaelA]
      #88306 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:00 AM

Well, I was certainly wrong on that call. We'll see how this progresses from here.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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