shewtinstars
Registered User
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Posts: 2
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I am in Jacksonville, Florida and this hurricane sure has my attention.
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syfr
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 19
Loc: Central NC
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As someone who planned to be in the outer banks on Saturday, I'm keeping a close eye.
Really looks like the most recent tracks show a NNW direction ...a rather marked change from the western heading earlier today.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The position is on or just a little on the north side of the forecasted track now, It's heading more to northwest than west northwest now. (Again, you need to compare satellite--especially visible--vs radar angle for an accurate position, not radar alone). If the trend continues the forecast track probably will shift right or stay the same at 5PM.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Looking at the last couple of frames on the Vis loop, it looks like it has resumed a more WNWesterly direction after a NW wobble to me.
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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San Juan, PR Morning AFD excerpt could explain the reason for the track anomalies.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010/
SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE EARL LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. THEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN...AND CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDSJU&max=61
PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010
PRZ001-004-301900-
PUERTO RICO
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
SAN JUAN LMM LGT RAIN 81 77 89 NW20G33 29.64F FOG
AGUADILLA PTSUNNY 86 79 79 N20G30 29.78F HX 99
$$
PRZ006-007-301900-
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
CHARLOTTE AMA LGT RAIN 82 75 78 NW33G59 29.41F
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... (edited~danielw)
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATA
FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA... SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A
SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...
AND ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Is it me, or has Earl slowed down (forward motion) this afternoon? Also, the convection in 97L has, again been suppressed in the latest vis pics.
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Michael
PWS
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
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Posts: 829
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Earl will need to make the turn real soon,or that projected track will have to change.After a brief wobble more towards the NW,it now is back on a more WNW course.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
233 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010
VALID AUG 30/1200 UTC THRU SEP 03/0000 UTC
...HURRICANE EARL...
PREFERENCE: National Hurricane Center FORECAST
ON WED THROUGH THURS... THE 12Z AND ARE BOTH TRENDING
SLOWER WITH EARL. THE IS SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTH AND WEST
DISPLACEMENT WITH THE TRACK... WHILE THE IS VERY CONSISTENT ON
THE FCST TRACK. THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH
THIS FEATURE... ESPECIALLY THE FORWARD PROGRESSION. HPC HIGHLY
RECOMMENDS FOLLOWING THE LATEST FCST GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING EARL.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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We now have TD 8 according to FNMOC. Possibly may be classified as a TS at time of issuance of advisories from , but certainly not what those in the northern Leewards will want to see.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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GV data from flight earlier today found some TS force winds at surface... but is waiting on a good set of convection... which is the right thing to do. Want take much to get a storm, but i don't see anything that would suggest an upgrade at this moment.
PS: the DC-8 from NASA flew over the EYE.... Can't wait to see the pics!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 30 2010 04:26 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I think that Danny was talking about Earl, not Invest 97L, but in any case, if Fleet Numerical is calling the system 08L (and they are) its probably because has told them that is about to upgrade the system to Tropical Depression status at 5PM EDT - but we'll find out shortly.
ED
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NHC has upped 97L to Tropical Storm Fiona
14.4N/ 48.7W wind 40 mph moving W at 24mph 1007 mb
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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And Earl is now category 4. On the other side, Danielle was downgraded to a Tropical Storm.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 (edited~danielw)
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 116 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND
108 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 1500 UTC. THIS WAS THE
BASIS FOR THE EARLIER INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE
PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DROP AND WAS DOWN TO 955 MB ON THE LAST
DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE AROUND 1700 UTC. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
DEPARTED EARL...THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR AND IS SURROUNDED BY
CLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEGREES CELSIUS OR COLDER. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO JUST ABOVE 6.0 ON THE
SCALE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT...CATEGORY FOUR ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.
948mb That's not good. 1000-948mb = max possible windspeed of 127 mph.
Earl is still Above the pressure-wind relationship curve at 135 mph.
TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010
...TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 48.7W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 30 2010 05:32 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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With the uncertainty of the intensity forecasts, I would not be surprised if Earl reaches Cat5 intensity within the next 24 hours. Tomorrow will likely tell if the forecast NWesterly track verifies and just how far West that begins to occur.
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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New thread, Earl and Fiona, is up. Please post there.
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