MikeC
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8PM EDT 28 June 2011 Update
Tropical Storm has formed in the Bay of Campeche. The Government of Mexico has issued Tropical Storm Warnings from Barra de Nautla Northward to Bahia Algodones.
5PM EDT 28 June 2011 Update
Recon was able to find a low level center, however the feels there isn't sufficient organization to warrant an upgrade to tropical depression status at this time. The probability is now rated at 90% likely over the next 48 hours. One small nudge will likely bring our first tropical system for the 2011 Atlantic season.
2PM EDT 28 June 2011 Update
Recon is now out in this system in the Bay of Campeche (95L) and based on early readings the National Hurricane Center has upped the chances for development to 70%. It's most likely time for development is tomorrow morning.
If it does it will have a relatively short time to develop beyond a depression, but it may be enough for Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings to go up for parts of Mexico.
Rain will likely be the biggest issue with this system, those in Mexico and extreme South Texas will want to monitor the situation.
7AM EDT 28 June 2011 Update
The system in the Bay of Campeche is still being disrupted by moderate shear, and no clear low level circulation is apparent yet.
Chances for anything more than a depression remain very low, and development chances still are highest for tomorrow, not too terribly long before it reaches the coast in Mexico. Recon may be called off later today if convection does not increase.
6PM EDT 27 June 2011 Update
The Bay of Campeche system has now been designated invest area 95L, and model runs are beginning. Thoughts haven't changed much from this morning.
1Ie,
1. it's best chance of development is 12-24 hours before landfall.
2. It should make landfall along the southern coast near or south of Tampico.
3. It likely won't get beyond tropical depression stage, but depends on how quickly it can get together.
There is a recon flight scheduled for tomorrow, and the current development chance is at 30% for the next 48 hours.
Alvarado, Mexico Radar
Altamira Mexico Radar
Flhurricane recorded Mexican Radar Loop
Weather at Tampico, Mexico
Weather at Poza Rica, Mexico
Original Update
This morning there is a disturbance moving off the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche that has remained disorganized, although there remains some chance for development (20%). It is likely that this system remains weak due to hostile shear from the west that has increased slightly. These upper level winds are not conductive for development. But they may lighten up tomorrow.
The window for development will be closer to Wednesday and if it does the system likely will be within 12-16 hours of landfall at the time. The area of landfall would be near Tampico in Mexico. If it develops at all, the best chances are for it to remain a tropical depression, but there is a chance it could start to get together a little more right before landfall and be a relatively low end tropical storm.
Right now it is disorganized and It has not been classified as even an investigation area yet, but may be done later today.
In short this disturbance, worth watching if you are in the area, is in all likelihood just a rain maker.
It will be watched this during the week.
Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 28 2011 08:00 PM)
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danielw
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Apparently thinks this may be worth a RECON or two.
And the CYCLONE designation at 29/1200z indicates a named system. That would be 8 AM EDT on Wednesday.
NOUS42 KNHC 271730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT MON 27 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-027
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 28/1515Z
D. 21.0N 94.0W
E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT -- TEAL 71
A. 29/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 29/0930Z
D. 22.0N 96.0W
E. 29/1130Z TO 29/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY
FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
Edited by danielw (Mon Jun 27 2011 03:38 PM)
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MikeC
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Added recording of Mexican radar sites:
Flhurricane recorded Mexican Radar Loop
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
1130 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011 (edited~danielw)
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES CENTER 1006 MB...POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...DEVELOPED AT 19N92W IN BAY OF CAMPECHE DRIFT W-NW AT
5 KT TOWARD TAMPICO TONIGHT AND THU...BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO S CENTRAL AND SW GULF OF MEXICO.
LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE DOMINATE REMAINDER OF GULF
THROUGH SAT.
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W MOVE
INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE...INTO NW CARIBBEAN BY WED. SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACH WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE WED...AND INTO
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU...AND W CARIBBEAN SAT. FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF BASIN THROUGH SAT.
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Robert
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It sure looks like the campeche system has split and a piece is gathering strength in the pacific on the mexican coast line. wondering if this will hammper any signifigant development in the gulf.
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cieldumort
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The system we are tracking is a bit of a duality. As mentioned above, the larger area of disturbed weather consists of one not-very-well-defined, weak cyclone in the southern Bay of Campeche... and a second, smaller and more compact feature clinging to the Gulf of Tehuantepec, over on the Pacific side. But to be clear, the feature on the Pacific side is not Invest 95L. is tracking the Gulf of Tehuantepec thunderstorm complex as a separate entity - not only has it been defined by a loose low level circulation of its own with very persistent thunderstorms within its ill-defined "center," but it is of course in another basin entirely (the Eastern Pacific).
The Invest in the East Pac does look as if has been occasionally hampering the development of the Bay of Campeche low, but there have also been some positive offsets: some occasional enhancements of the upper-level venting of Invest 95L, some increased moisture over Mexico, to name two. Given the ragged nature of Invest 95L, the positive and negative impacts from the East Pac thunderstorm complex have probably been close to a wash, overall.
Recon is now en route to Invest 95L. At last check they were roughly 25N 93W, and they have detected some gusty surface winds out there - up to minimal tropical storm force in fact (in gusts) around 25.1N and 93.77W.
Given that Invest 95L appears to have been traveling fairly slowly - with its approximate "center" possibly reforming from time to time over more and more favorably warm waters (for the past several days much of the center(s) was over land, hindering development), and also given that upper-level winds continue to relax, a window for development into a named tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours seems very possible (NHC giving it a 50% chance of becoming at least a Tropical Depression within the next 48).
Steering currents should continue to take 95L generally west to perhaps west-northwest, but then there are some indications that steering currents could weaken, or even collapse, for a while. This scenario could result in persistent rains over eastern Mexico and/or south Texas.
South Texas will be on the dirty side of the system. While there is a lot of dry air in place over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and a ton of dry air over the entire state of Texas, the large feed of moisture associated with Invest 95L could easily overcome this in a matter of a few days, or less. Residents of south Texas and eastern Mexico should be alert for the distinct possibility of a significant rain event later this week, and potentially into the weekend. Flooding will likely be a key risk from 95L, regardless of whether or not it gets a name.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Recon has fixed a possible center at 20.9N/ 93.2W and is attempting to define a closed low level circulation. It appears they may be flying the delta pattern, which is a zig-zag pattern to locate a closed circulation.
EDit Recon found low level wind speeds below Tropical Depression limits. 10 to 15 mph at the flight level of 1,000 feet.
Edited by danielw (Tue Jun 28 2011 03:11 PM)
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danielw
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Looks like the winds are increasing on the surface.
NDBC/42055 Bay of Campeche
22.203N 94.000W
Weather Conditions
5:50 pm CDT
2250 GMT 06/28/11
Wind: E (90°), 23.3 kt
Gust: 29.1 kt
Seas: 10.8 ft
Peak Period: 9 sec
Pres: 29.69 falling 1005.3 mb
Pressure Tendency : -1.7 mb ( Falling )
Air Temp: 79.9 °F
Water Temp: 83.8 °F
Dew Point: 75.9 °F
Wave Summary
6:00 pm CDT
2300 GMT 06/28/11
Wind Wave: 10.8 ft
Period: 9.1 sec
Direction: ENE
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danielw
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TROPICAL STORM SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL012011
0000 UTC WED JUN 29 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA ALGODONES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO BAHIA ALGODONES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 93.7W AT 29/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
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LoisCane
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Sort of surprised, didn't think it looked that organized and was concerned about the way it looked like part of it was developing in the Pacific... but I wasn't in the planes and do find it interesting that most of the models take it straight west into the Pacific... but guess time will tell...
Officially , go figure.
Good to see the info here...
--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
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Thanks. Kind of caught me a bit off guard. Even though I was looking at the buoy and satellite data.
New Thread is up. Please post there.
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