danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Like Mike said... 
The estimated top and bottom of the radar beam can be estimated using the link below.
At 120nm the bottom of the beam is roughly 10,000 feet or about the 650mb level. And the top is roughly 22,740 feet or near the 400mb level.
http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/misc/beamwidth/beamwidth.html
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 06 2011 10:46 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Emilys circulation died out south of Haiti.. LLV raced out and was north of Cuba Friday evening. A new LLC
is trying to develop just north of Nassau. I think they will find a Closed circulation when recon gets there. I'm
also seeing banding trying to develop on the southwest side of the circulation. I feel this looks better now than
it ever really did... but the pressures are not as low.. say 1009-1010mb. Probably a TD by 5pm at 60% doubt
a TS unless recon can find some winds around 40mph
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Looking at the Floater RGB Loop, again, I don't believe that this system is vertically stacked. I see a LLV just north of Grand Bahama Island with the convection (and probably the MLC) farther south and near Nassau (just north of Andros Island).
EDIT: The latest frames show a westward movement toward Miami/Ft. Lauderdale.
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Michael
PWS
Edited by MichaelA (Sat Aug 06 2011 12:06 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Looking at the Floater RGB Loop, again, I don't believe that this system is vertically stacked. I see a LLV just north of Grand Bahama Island with the convection (and probably the MLC) farther south and near Nassau (just north of Andros Island).
EDIT: The latest frames show a westward movement toward Miami/Ft. Lauderdale.
It might not be vertically stacked, but all of the evidence I'm seeing indicates that it has regained enough organization to justify re-initiating advisories - especially given that Emily is headed right for Miami, and isn't that far away. The MIA radar shows a weak circulation, but a circulation nonetheless, with the majority of the convection in the south and southeast quadrants.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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The recon plane from keesler AFB is on the way, I still don't see anything happening this afternoon at least. Watch it do a cyclonic loop out in the Atlantic next week to drive people watching it too closely crazy.
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Hugh
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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There still seems to be a lot of shear (or, the shear is back), so you're probably right. Every time convection tries to fire up on the other side (north) of the apparent LLC it dies off quickly.
Edit: Up to 80% on the 2pm (which is not very meaningful given that recon in literally enroute). The is sticking by the "out to sea" forecast, even though the system itself is moving due west toward Miami from all indications 
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Sat Aug 06 2011 01:48 PM)
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GuppieGrouper
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Loc: Polk County, Florida
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The radar from Klystron 9, Tampa Bay, shows the moisture from the storm moving towards the U.S. but whatever center there might be appears to be staying put. I am not sure itis the center but maybe just the area outside the radar field.
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God commands. Laymen guess. Scientists record.
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Looking at 24 image loop from long range Miami radar it sure looks to be moving slowly WNW. Would not be shocked to see this Tropical storm at 5pm I think recon will find 40+ mph winds in that convection. Have to say its even pretty apparent in visible loop as well, I'm a little surprised more are not talking about this?
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Looking at 24 image loop from long range Miami radar it sure looks to be moving slowly WNW. Would not be shocked to see this Tropical storm at 5pm I think recon will find 40+ mph winds in that convection. Have to say its even pretty apparent in visible loop as well, I'm a little surprised more are not talking about this?
It's very difficult to determine motion of a developing system on radar, I think - to me, movement looks almost due west at a very slow drift, with the reforming LLC due east of West Palm Beach.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Have to agree Hugh looks to be just south of Freeport in the Bahamas, roughly duee east of Palm Beach. If anything maybe WNW but I have to say I do not see any northwest or north movement, Recon is just now exiting from Floirda peninsula near Palm beach should get some info in an hour. Heres a link to level II radar data from Miami.
http://www.aprsfl.net/radar/index.php?site=KAMX&mode=dz&animated=no
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M.A.
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Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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The storm that never really dies! Reminds me of the movie Christine. Convection continues to blossom. Looks to have a WNW movement. Banding is becoming more pronounced in the SE region. I would expect a upgrade to a depression @ the 5pm advisory. If it does keep this track to the WNW, it will bring some much needed rain to much of the state. This is what we all ask for as a drought buster a depression or minimal TS. Just what the doctor ordered!
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Based upon recon reports of west winds south of Grand Bahama, along with observations I've heard reported elsewhere, it's just a matter of what kind of winds the recon finds, whether it's a depression or a storm again. Of course, until we get an actual vortex report, nothing is certain.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Yes initial obs looking at plane there appears to be low level center along and just south of the central Grand Bahama coast.
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Recon has definitely been finding some sort of LLC, and it has been moving steadily generally northward - now having crossed over Little Abaco Island. Recon is finding that much of the surface wind is still soft, at under 25 mph; however, Station Rocky Bay, Elbow Cay, ABACO, located at roughly 26.5N 77W, has been measuring fairly regular winds of between 30 and 41.4 mph as the center of Emily passed by to its west over the past two hours.
Edit to add that there does still appear to be multiple vortices. Not exactly a very well organized system (as if it ever has been).
Edited by cieldumort (Sat Aug 06 2011 04:23 PM)
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Center appears to be right over Grand Bahama, moving quickly NW and basically shearing itself in the process. I think we are in for a soggy evening from Ft Pierce south to Miami. It just started raining pretty good here in NW Broward (Ft Lauderdale), not an outer band but part of the overall circulation as this rain came in from the N instead the normal W off the Everglades or SE on the ocean breeze.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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And she is back as a 30 mph TD!
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL052011
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011
...EMILY REGENERATES AS A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EXPECTED TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S. COAST SUNDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...26.9N 78.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
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