MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4490
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Update - Wednesday August 31st, 11PM EDT
With sustained winds of 75mph, Katia is now a hurricane - located over a thousand miles to the east of the Leeward Islands and moving to the west northwest at 20mph. Central pressure is now down to 987MB. The forecast reasoning has not changed and Katia is expected to become a major hurricane in 3 days as the storm continues to move to the WNW. Katia is expected to slow down late in the forecast period and take more of a turn toward the northwest.
Invest 93L in the Gulf has a high chance for additional development into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours as upper air conditions slowly improve and folks along the northern Gulf coast need to closely monitor this potential trouble spot.
ED
Update - Wednesday August 31st, 4PM EDT
The area in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico has been designated as Invest 93L moving to the west northwest at about 15mph. probability for additional development now at 30 percent.
ED
2:30PM Update 30 August 2011
Katia is slowly strengthening in the Atlantic, thoughts on the future track have not changed as of yet.
Also an area in the northwest Caribbean may cross over the Yucatan and form into something later this week. It's important to watch this system in the western Gulf, as things here could happen quite fast. It is not an invest area as of yet. Those in Northern Mexico and the Northwest Gulf may want to watch this system. It currently has a 10% chance to develop over the next 48 hours.
Northeast Gulf Links
Southeast Composite Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery
SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track
Area Forecast Discussions:
New Orleans -
Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola -
Panhandle/Tallahassee -
Tampa/West Central Florida
North Gulf Links
North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
East to West:
Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
New Orleans, LA Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Lake Charles, LA Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery
Area Forecast Discussions:
Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola -
New Orleans, LA -
Lake Charles, LA -
Houston/Galveston, TX
Texas Gulf Coast Links
[http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html Mark Nissenbaum's radar page}
East to West:
Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Corpus Christi, TX Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Brownsville, TX Radar Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery
Area Forecast Discussions:
Houston/Galveston, TX
- Corpus Christi, TX - Browsnville/South Padre Island, TX
7AM Update 30 August 2011
Tropical Storm Katia formed this morning around 5AM, as it continues to move fairly fast to the west northwest. It is forecast to become a major hurricane by Sunday, but is forecast to be well northeast of the Leeward islands in the Caribbean. It is still worth watching in the Caribbean to see if it remains on the left side of the forecast cone, but odds do not favor that happen.
Current long range models have it recurving before the United States, but may bring it near Bermuda, or between Bermuda and the US. Katia is still very far out so trends should be monitored over the next week or so.
The final advisory on Jose was issued yesterday.
11PM Update 29 August 2011
No upgrade to Tropical Storm Katia just yet tonight, but it's really only a matter of time. TWELVE is arguably ever-so-close to being "there," thus likely this conservative stance by will hold just until a little more data comes in, as TD12 is in a favorable environment for further development.
One change worth noting, the future track for TWELVE is looking a little more concerning tonight. Indications are that the expected opening in the ridge to its north may not last, and such a setup could keep TWELVE continuing on a more westerly course than earlier model runs suggested. However, it is far too early to take to the bank anything more than three or four days out on this system. We will have better model runs if and should Recon fly in.
Ciel
9PM Update 29 August 2011
Based on best track data, and T numbers, it appears Tropical Depression 12 will be named Tropical Storm Katia at 11PM tonight.
Thankfully, odds currently favor it recurving out to sea as it is gaining latitude already. Katia is the name that replaced on this year's list. However, this is by no means a sure thing at this time, there will be time to watch this system over the next week.
Original Update
Irene's last advisory was issued at 11pm last night, ending a very long wait and see period with Irene. Irene did cause damage, sometimes severe, but not in the areas that the media was expecting. The surge was very strong in North Carolina, the flooding rains in Vermont, upstate New York, and parts of western Massachusetts and New Hampshire were record levels, the power outages were widespread. Irene for the most part was more a major annoyance than major destruction, which is what was expected after the system's core collapsed shortly after the run through the Bahamas
Intensity forecasting remains weak, but the short-mid range track forecast was very good, and solidified fairly well once Irene passed Hispaniola. Models picked up the shift back west, but not as large as it wound up being (to head up over upstate New York and Vermont)
People with outages will gradually be regaining power over the next week or so.
Jose continues to move out to sea, and is expected to go post tropical fairly soon.
Tropical Depression twelve has formed in the far eastern Atlantic from what was 92L, it is expected to head generally west or west northwest. Although there is some time for it to change, odds favor the system recurving well before the US. The eastern Caribbean will need to watch, but it is likely to stay north of those islands as well.
Power Outage Maps (roughly south to north)
Eastern Carolinas Power outage map
Virginia Power outage map
DelMarva Power outage map
Novec/Northern Virginia Power outage map
Portions Maryland/DC power outage Map
Baltimore area Power outage map
Southern Maryland Power outage map
Southeastern Pennsylvania Outage Map
Atlantic City (Southern New Jersey) Power outage map
Jersey Central Power outage map
Northern New Jersey PSEG outage map
New York City/ConEd Power outage map
Long Island Power outage map
Connecticut Power outage map
Rhode Island/Mass Power outage map
New Hampshire Power outage map
Katia Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2011&storm=12 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Katia
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of Katia
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Katia
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Katia (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of Katia
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Katia
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Katia -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
93L (Gulf Wave) Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2011&storm=13 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 93L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 93L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 93L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 93L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 93L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 93L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 93L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
94L Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2011&storm=14 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 94L
GOES Floater
Animated Model Plot of 94L
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L
(Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)
Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L
Other Model Charts from Clark
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View
Long term Central Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Long term West Atlantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 01 2011 12:25 PM)
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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The disturbed area in the northwest Caribbean is just that for now pressures are not falling and probably will not until it moves into central Gulf in 48 hours or so. Models are fairly aggressive in developing something here, but there seems to be a big lack in steering at that time. Something that will need to be watched by all in Gulf coast end of this week and weekend...
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The area in the NW Caribbean is moving into the Yucatan Channel area.
Current radar from Cuba indicates a low level spin. Only four frames, or so, but the spin is evident.
Buoy pressure dropped to around 29.78 at it's lowest. Or about 1008.5 mb at Buoy 42056.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056&unit=E&tz=STN
This system will need to be watched closely over the next week as the current indicates it may become 'cutoff' from the steering flow and drift in the Northern and Northeastern GOM. Extreme rainfall is forecast at the current time, over the Coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the FL Panhandle and into the Western Florida counties in the next 5 to 7 days.
There are several models taking several different tracks. With the being the most extreme at this point. I'm using the 18Z model for Tuesday August 30th.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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RE: Gulf area - That 18Z run is...interesting. While it is technically possible, I don't see that specific track as likely. Even if it does happen, storms that track back over their own path tend to weaken due to the earlier reduction of the SSTs. It's really too far out for guestimates  still needs watching since anything could really happen given the temperatures in the Gulf right now.
For Katia, the has been consistently showing Katia as a fish spinner, heading north and possibly affecting the Newfoundland. Also too far out for more than guestimates.
Long range from - http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appco...=MODEL+GUIDANCE
Edited by cieldumort (Wed Aug 31 2011 12:57 AM)
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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For Katia track:
There is a ridge north of Katia. There is a weakness forecast in that ridge to move east, allowing Katia through the ridge in around a week, somewhere south to southeast of Bermuda.
As people who watch eastern Atlantic hurricanes know, forecasting of these weaknesses in ridges is often fraught with error: they often develop at different speeds and strengths when forecast this far out. While generally the weaknesses in the ridge do manifest, the exact location is not guaranteed, and whether the tropical cyclone will find the weakness strong enough to allow it to move through is also not guaranteed.
We therefore are in a waiting game for the next several days as models get closer and closer to the event. Once we are 1-2 days away from the weaknesses being near Katia, we should have a much better understanding of how strong the weaknesses will be and whether Katia will likely take it. The question is also as to the exact position of that weaknesses, and thus how close to Bermuda or the Atlantic coast Katia will come when it passes through that break.
A lot of unknowns, and very few knowns, at this early point in watching Katia.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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That weakness is the fairly significant ULL that is digging in around 25N and 55W. That seems to be the uncertainty in the forecast right now. The Discussion noted it was expected to retrograde to the SW. It looks vigorous on the WV and if it does not weaken or move westward it could impede development of Katia and create significant SW'ly shear. This is the weakness that is expected influence the track. The question being posed in some circles is What If: a significant tropical system pops up in the central GOM (alaGFS) in a few days and the affects that may have on the weakness in the ATL?
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doug
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delia6667
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 6
Loc: St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands
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Hi Again.
Sorry, do not know what happened to my post. I shall try again.
I have been watching the guidance models as to Katia's movement/path and that the upper ridge she is moving S of will have a weak area in which most models have seemed to agree, she will, at that point, take a more NW path than her current WNW path.
As someone who lives in St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands, I still feel that I should keep a watchful eye on Katia because there are so many factors that could steer her course. Seems to me that last year Earl was predicted to take similar Path as Katia and we all know St. Thomas got hit pretty well with Earl.
Any thoughts or helpful insights for me?
Thanks,
Cordelia
Edited by delia6667 (Wed Aug 31 2011 01:06 PM)
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papaswamp
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: St.Johns, FL
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The GOM disturbance is now at 30% probability. May throw an interesting curve ball to all the models.
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delia6667
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 6
Loc: St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands
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Hi. What will the GOM probabllity due to the path of Katia, especially in relation to we here in St. Thomas, US VI?
Thanks,
Cordelia
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papaswamp
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: St.Johns, FL
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I'm certainly not the one to ask. The pros will pop-up shortly I'm sure once another model run is done.
It looks like a complex situation to say the least.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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At the present time Katia is Not forecast to pass close to the Virgin Isles or the Lesser Antilles.
Forecasts change, as we all know. Katia appears to be taking the wnw route that will take her out to sea.
The 06Z and other models have the storm passing close to Maine and Nova Scotia, later next week. But that is a long range forecast and subject to change greatly.
Katia is expected to be upgraded to a Category 1 Hurricane later today. Increasing the odds of missing the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Isles.
Please consult your local Weather Service and Advisories on Katia. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/gridded_mar...m=wind#contents
The area of disturbed weather in the NW Caribbean and SE GOM has been upgraded to 93L on the MRY web site.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 31 2011 03:03 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Keep in mind that you are contemplating a situation that is still about five days away - and any GOM system would still need to develop before any interaction between the two systems could even be considered, i.e., right now it would be speculation on a possible event and the Forecast Lounge is better suited to that type of discussion. For now, it is always good advice just to monitor Katia's progress and any changes in the forecast.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Gulf area is now Invest 93L and the first Recon is scheduled for Thursday afternoon .
ED
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- ADDED
1. FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--SUSPECT AREA IN CNTRL GULF
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 01/1630Z
D. 25.0N AND 90.0W
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/ 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4490
Loc: Orlando, FL
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This gulf system is a slow mover, hybrid like, and going to be extremely difficult to forecast. The northern to northwest Gulf seems most likely spot, intensity is hard to say (a bit of shear will probably keep it from gaining too quickly). But likely being a slow mover could bring lots of rain (not necessarily to Texas, though).
Even if this system doesn't develop tropically, it may rain quite a bit (GFS model is projecting around 2FT) along parts of the northern Gulf.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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In the here and now winds aloft are not favorable for development as a strictly tropical system; there is an axis of 30+ knots along a west to east line out ahead of the system. I need a bottle of aspirin to layout all the possibilities of a subtropical system with a long wave trough along the Eastern Seaboard and two upper ridges; unfortunately editing and re-typing my history and ethics classes trumps this system tonight. Katia...is simply too far out to put any faith in the models; however I did note that slight more westward bend to the left right at the end of the 5 day track.
--------------------
Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4490
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Best track puts Katia at a hurricane, probably at 11PM. (Not jumping the gun on that tonight) The gulf system is worrying with a potential sit and spin in the gulf (at least for the rainfall).
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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NHC is giving the western Gulf system a 60% chance of developing within the next two days. Everyone keep an eye on this system.
Just a quick model note on this storm: is keeping this as a significant system (Tropical Storm or better) playing bumper cars with the gulf coast for over 8 days, bouncing it's way from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle, hitting land around once a day, before finally heading inland! I sure hope this model is very wrong! Other models are also showing a bit of bouncing, some sending it west, others east. There is a very large, strong ridge that is forecast to move north of this system about the time it heads to land which is what will keep it mostly offshore.
Edited by Random Chaos (Wed Aug 31 2011 09:16 PM)
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TXEB
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 30
Loc: Lake Jackson, TX
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This out about 80 mins ago from the NWS office in my area:
"HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
655 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ178-179-199-200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-011200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-WALLER-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
655 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2011
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
.DAYS THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY. POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE
EXPECTED TRACK OF THIS WAVE REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN...AND THIS RESULTS
IN A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THAT RANGES FROM A MINIMAL IMPACT ON
OUR AREA TO A POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE COAST...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...COASTAL FLOODING AND
BEACH EROSION. RESIDENTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR MORE
INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED."
This is more warning than we had with Allison in 2001.
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
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Katia is upgraded to a hurricane at 11pm.
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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93L looks to be a real menace for the Gulf coast. I do not see any sign of low level center with it more mid level it appears right now. Buoy data has not shown any kind of drop but instead rising pressures in area. I see this taking about 48 hours or so before we see depression/maybe storm. Models are not very helpful and with no center yet I dont think they can be used. Global models continue to develop as does 0z which deepens to around 990-992mb as it hugs LA coast. 18Z has storm about same strength and hugs North central Gulf coast then crawls east and landfall and races northward from central/eastern FL panhandle. The 12Z stays meanders the TX coast, hugs and meanders the north central Gulf coast. as well. Its hard to say what will come as it seems to get caught in very weak steering for possibly several days.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 31 2011 11:14 PM)
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