cieldumort
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4AM CDT 20 June 2013 Update
Barry is making landfall on the Mexican state of Veracruz as a 45MPH tropical storm. While the strongest winds are almost all occurring offshore, a few potent gusts can be expected in spots over land.
Of far more concern is the growing risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, as Barry slowly pushes inland over increasingly mountainous terrain. Widespread rainfall totals of 3" to 5" are expected, with localized totals over 10" possible.
Ciel
11AM CDT 19 June 2013 Update
Recon is en route to find out if has become Barry - with an upgrade to named storm very likely sometime today. A Mexican navy meteorological station has already recorded nearly 1-min sustained winds at tropical storm force north of the estimated center.
As for track and timing, recon should help determine if the old surface center still holds, or has been/is being replaced by the vigorous mid-level circulation establishing itself at the surface, which is to the north of the old LLC. High res satellite images suggest the latter, and indeed it is the northernmost circulation that is tracking and forecasting on.
Ciel
Weather Conditions at Veracruz, Mexico
Weather Conditions at Poza Rica de Hidalgo, Mexico
4AM CDT 19 June 2013 Update
The structure of TD2 has continued improving overnight, although a recent ASCAT pass from late last night really highlighted the strained call as a tropical cyclone, as the surface center and mid-level center were still miles and miles apart, with the surface center even still interacting with land. On the other hand, that ASCAT pass also suggested maximum sustained winds at the surface have likely increased to about 35MPH.
Considering the improved banding, increased deep convection within the mid-level center, and that most of the system is now over water, only an easily achievable tiny increase in maximum sustained winds would now make the depression a storm, and so the government of Mexico has chosen to upgrade from watch to warning: A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for a considerable portion of the state of Veracruz, from Punta el Lagarto to Barra de Nautla.
The main threat with will continue to be from heavy rain and potential flooding, whether the cyclone becomes a named storm, or remains a depression.
Ciel
2PM CDT 18 June 2013 Update
What remains of TD2 is rather ill defined today. It appears that there are multiple surface or near surface swirls traveling with what might be an open wave at this point. However, for continuity purposes, and the likelihood that the area of disturbed weather will be back out over open water very soon, has opted to operationally follow this as if it were still intact, but it remains to be seen if what is left of TD2 can sufficiently reorganize once back out over the Bay of Campeche.
The primary swirl associated with Two is presently located near 18.5N 91.8W, and is within hours at the most of at least partially reemerging over very warm water. On its current projected course, which Two or its remnants look to be following well, the low will probably spend a few days over the Bay of Campeche, before moving back inland along extreme southern Mexico.
The primary concern with Two continues to be its potential to cause heavy rains and flooding.
Ciel
Original Update
An early season tropical wave, Invest 93L, has been pulling partially offshore overnight Sunday in the northwest Caribbean, and it appears that some semblance of a surface circulation has been taking shape, at least sporadically, despite so much of the disturbance's core traveling over land.
While 93L is the kind of tropical low pressure area that may very well become a tropical cyclone while riding the coast, its odds of becoming an officiated tropical cyclone would still be much better if it either pulls or re-centers further north, over the warm waters of the northwestern Carib.
Being that 93L is already moving along and/or over so much land, and that Belize and the Yucatan are just up ahead, any further development will be restricted by time. However, regardless of development, very heavy rains with the potential for dangerous inland flooding will occur for some time to come along its path.
By mid-week, it is possible that 93L will track into the Bay of Campeche, and have another shot at significant development. Alternatively, 93L may just rain itself out over southern Mexico, or even pass into the eastern Pacific, and possibly develop over there.
One way or another, 93L looks like it will be around for a while, and so we will likely continue monitoring this feature for several days.
Weather Conditions at Roatan Island, Honduras
Weather Conditions at Belize City, Belize
Weather Conditions at Aeropuertola Aurora , Guatemala
Edited by MikeC (Sat Jul 06 2013 07:57 AM)
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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cieldumort
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As of 4PM CDT Monday, TD2 has maintained sufficient structure as it heads into the Bay of Campeche to warrant continuing advisories. In fact, it still looks possible that the cyclone becomes a tropical storm prior to final landfall along the extreme south coast of Mexico.
Quote:
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL022013
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT
LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA
FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A
PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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RECON is inbound to TD Two and initial wind reports from the NE Quad indicate TD 2 may be upgraded to TS Barry shortly.
1200 foot winds in the NE Quadrant are presently above 28 mph with a max wind, so far, of 41 mph.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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At 19/1734Z, Recon reported a surface wind speed of 33 knots in the main feeder band about 75 miles to the northeast of the satellite indicated center. Visible imagery suggests a low center near 20.1N 94.7W at 19/18Z, or a little to the north northeast of the position but Recon should soon determine a more precise location.
ED
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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RECON making a turn to the NW at/ near 19.6 N/ -94.8 W. Definite change in wind directions at that point, but not like what is usually seen when passing through a storm center.
Winds veered from SE to S to SW while turning toward the NW.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL STORM BARRY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL022013
145 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW TROPICAL
STORM BARRY...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE
SEASON. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEXT REGULAR ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.
SUMMARY OF 145 PM CDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 95.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Remains of Barry are located 60 miles ENE of Mexico City,MX with sustained winds of 25 mph at 1 AM CDT.
First day of Summer is here. Now wait for the Super Moon this weekend. Very close and very large.
System off of the SE US Coast should be watched with one eye this weekend as the is now forecast to move toward the 8 and 1 sectors. Extreme positive near the 4th of July. With the entering sector 8 in 3 to 4 days.
I'm still learning the aspects and forecasts. So bear with me on this.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml
Edited by danielw (Fri Jun 21 2013 03:34 AM)
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