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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Early October Activity
      #101373 - Thu Oct 01 2020 11:50 AM

4:00PM CDT 06 October 2020 Update
Hurricane Delta is a Category 4 hurricane with 145mph winds in the Northwest Caribbean, expected to landfall in the Northeastern Yucatan (Cozumel and Cancun area) tomorrow morning.

In the Yucatan, the life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Beyond the impacts of the Yucatan it will have time to strengthen, but as it moves further into the Gulf increasing southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed as it gets closer to land, but a significant increase in the size of Delta's wind field while it is over the Gulf of Mexico, which increases the spatial extent of the storm surge and wind threats for the northern Gulf coast. So regardless of Delta's final landfall intensity, the projected large size of the hurricane is likely to result in a very significant storm surge and wind event for portions of the northern Gulf coast later this week. Likely moreso than Sally or Laura.

Those in the areas please listen to local media and officials.

6:40PM CDT 05 October 2020 Update
Recon has found a closed eye. Pressure is down to at least 983mb, and it is just a matter of time before winds catch up to the pressure and structure. As we head into the overnight hours, it is becoming possible that Delta could bomb and become a very dangerous and formidable Major hurricane even sooner rather than later.

Model discussion is now open in the Delta Forecast Lounge .

5:40PM CDT 05 October 2020 Update
Delta continues to rapidly strengthen. The forecast calling for Delta to become a Major once in the GOM may actually be behind the curve, as the forecast has been to this point.

This cyclone is in a very favorable environment for Rapid Intensification over the next day or two at least and as Gamma has continued to weaken, likely helping alter conditions in the Gulf, it remains to be seen what could detrimentally impact Delta prior to landfall in the southern US (location still uncertain, but models are generally focused on Louisiana to W Florida panhandle.

Interests in the Northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico may want to begin preparing for the impact of what could become a fairly stout Major Hurricane.

3:00AM CDT 03 October 2020 Update
Gamma is intensifying tonight, with a recent blowup of very deep convection within the center of circulation. Recon is finding continual pressure drops, and winds are rising. In addition to being a substantial rain and flood threat for locations in the northwest Caribbean, Gamma very well may be making a mad dash to exceed wind and wave intensity forecasts.

Elsewhere, the wave behind Gamma may loop around it next week and could enter the Gulf. Behind that, even yet another approaching wave is up to bat, and is already looking active. Both of these are not yet Invest tagged, but could be over the weekend.

Original Entry
Two areas are being watched for early October, Invest 91L in the West Caribbean with a 70% chance to develop and another area east of the leeward islands with a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

The impacts beyond the short term are unclear for both, but likely should be watched by the Yucatan, Gulf, and Caribbean islands.

Delta Event Related Links

float26latest.gif stormplotthumb_26.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2020&storm=26 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Delta
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Delta

Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Delta (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Delta (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Delta

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Delta
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Delta -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

Delta Forecast Lounge

Cancun Webcam

North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX
Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast Media/Links

WLOX TV 13 (ABC) Biloxi

WXXV TV 25 (Fox)Biloxi

WKRG TV 5 (CBS) Mobile

WPMI TV 15 (NBC) Mobile

WALA TV 10 (Fox) Mobile

WEAR TV 3 (ABC) Pensacola, FL


Mobile Register (Al.com) paper

Biloxi Sun Herald paper

Gulf Live

Radio (some)

News Talk 104.9 Biloxi, MS (Radio)

News talk 106.5 Mobile, AL (Radio)

Power Outage Louisiana power outage map

Mississippi Power Outage Map

Alabama Power Outage Map


    • Lake Charles, LA Area Media and Information
  • kplctv 7 NBC Lake Charles

    Fox 29 Lake Charles

    American Press Newspaper Lake Charles

    Louisiana Information

    Govt/Official Info:

    Louisiana Emergency Management

    Mississippi Emergency Management

    Alabama Emergency Management

    Louisiana Dept. of Transportation - Road Closures, Traffic Cams, etc.

    Mississippi - Road Closures, Traffic Cams, etc

    Alabama Road Conditions and Traffic Cameras

    Media Newspapers/TV/Radio:

    Nola.com New Orleans Times-Picayune

    WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans)

    ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)

    WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)

    Fox 8 (New Orleans)

    WTIX 690 News Radio

    WWL 870 News Radio

    WTOK 11 / Missippii Alabama ABC Affiliate

    WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola

    WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile

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    Loc: Orlando, FL
    Re: Early October Activity [Re: MikeC]
          #101386 - Mon Oct 05 2020 07:14 PM

    Grand Cayman radar http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/portal/nwshome/forecasthome/radar

    Recording of that radar http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?601

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    Re: Early October Activity [Re: MikeC]
          #101390 - Thu Oct 08 2020 08:00 AM

    Recon found pressure at 963mb this morning soon after the 8am advisory went out.

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    Re: Early October Activity [Re: MikeC]
          #101391 - Thu Oct 08 2020 11:31 AM

    Delta looks like it's going into RI mode again.

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    Re: Early October Activity [Re: MikeC]
          #101392 - Thu Oct 08 2020 07:55 PM

    Mobile radar near Lake Charles


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