Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Clean up and rescue operations in the wake of major hurricanes Milton and Helene continue. No new threatening storms on the immediate horizon.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 5 (Milton) , Major: 5 (Milton) Florida - Any: 5 (Milton) Major: 5 (Milton)
 


General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | (show all)
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #115180 - Wed Sep 25 2024 08:46 PM

Looking at the GOES Floater IR water vapor loops, it looks like there is some dry air intruding east of the central core. That may delay the expected intensification. We’ll see what the 11 PM ET advisory contains. P

--------------------
Michael

PWS


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 456
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #115181 - Thu Sep 26 2024 09:34 AM

Am I noticing a jog east on recent satelitte imagery?

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kraig
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 85
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #115182 - Thu Sep 26 2024 09:49 AM

Radar loop on SFWMD page is showing roughly 3/4 of the eye now, and appears to be veering slightly east of the forecast line.

SFWMD Radar Loop


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kraig
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 85
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #115184 - Thu Sep 26 2024 10:06 AM

From the NHC 4am Discussion:
"Helene is sending some mixed structural signals this morning. On
one side, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports
that the central pressure has fallen to near 966 mb, and satellite
imagery shows the eye is trying to clear out. On another side, the
aircraft reported concentric eyewalls of 16 and 32 n mi diameter,
with the maximum flight-level winds, 80 kt at 700 mb, occurring
about 50 n mi southeast of the center likely in relation to the
outer eyewall."


I don't recall any hurricanes 90mph or less with concentric eyewalls or seeming to go through an ERC. I find it quite odd and wonder if it will hinder its top end speed while it loses time going through these physical structure changes. It only is forecasted to have 10 more hours over water....


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 391
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #115185 - Thu Sep 26 2024 10:37 AM

Quote:

Am I noticing a jog east on recent satelitte imagery?




I may be a bit paranoid, but it looks to me to be east of forecast track...Gov DeSantis mentioned an east ward shift in his news conference this morning. Anyone else seeing this?

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2473
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #115186 - Thu Sep 26 2024 10:42 AM

Quote:

Quote:

Am I noticing a jog east on recent satelitte imagery?




I may be a bit paranoid, but it looks to me to be east of forecast track...Gov DeSantis mentioned an east ward shift in his news conference this morning. Anyone else seeing this?




There has definitely been a trend to track to the right of the center line since very late last night.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 391
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #115187 - Thu Sep 26 2024 10:54 AM

I used to have a site where it overlay the forecast track on current radar. Seem to have lost it in the computer change or have forgotten where to go for it. Anyone have that?

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kraig
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 85
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #115188 - Thu Sep 26 2024 10:59 AM

Quote:

I used to have a site where it overlay the forecast track on current radar. Seem to have lost it in the computer change or have forgotten where to go for it. Anyone have that?




SFWMD RADAR I posted it a little bit ago as well......


Definitely well east of track!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 539
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #115189 - Thu Sep 26 2024 11:19 AM

Quote:

I used to have a site where it overlay the forecast track on current radar.




https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap is another good one where you layer the radar and/or satellite images over the forecast track.

Tide in Ft Myers is already 2.73' above predicted: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8725520


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2473
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #115190 - Thu Sep 26 2024 11:31 AM

Granted, some wobbly still going on, but there keeps being more wobbly to the right, than left of center, and smoothed out over time, a clear bias to the right side of the cone this morning.



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2473
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #115191 - Thu Sep 26 2024 11:38 AM



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2473
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #115193 - Thu Sep 26 2024 12:21 PM



OFCL trends cr. Brian Tang

OFCL(Official NHC forecast track) trends over the past few advisories and verification points. Not that far off from forecast overall.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2473
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #115195 - Thu Sep 26 2024 02:30 PM

Winds are now into Category 4 aloft and likely to begin transitioning to the surface. Recon is also finding that the eye is warming and drying considerably, which, baring something unexpected, will support continued intensification this afternoon to a high-end Major heading into landfall.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #115196 - Thu Sep 26 2024 04:08 PM

Quote:



OFCL trends cr. Brian Tang

OFCL(Official NHC forecast track) trends over the past few advisories and verification points. Not that far off from forecast overall.




Oh my FREEKING GOD.

If she stays on track, it could PILE DRIVE Big Bend, parts of upper Tennessee, southern Kentucky, northern Alabama, and possibly south Indiana and Illinois with rain. Up to 20 feet of storm surge in Big Bend area.

If it stalls and spins between states, I'm not sure I've ever seen anything close to like this before, other than similar to Harvey, which was mostly in Texas. A quad or quint states potentially needing federal aid on this scale is pretty terrifying. That's not even considering how slow it could go through Georgia and Tennessee before it stalls out more north

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
FlYankee
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 1
Loc: Rockledge, FL, USA
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #115197 - Thu Sep 26 2024 06:27 PM

Don't overlook the Western Carolinas & Virginia, and perhaps Eastern Kentucky. I have family in Asheville, NC and just outside Greenville, SC, and both have been reporting that flooding had already started for them this morning due to the huge wave of rain pushed over them by Helene. If she keeps sending them rain, there will be some massive flooding in the Smokey Mountains and the Piedmont of the Carolinas. I was in Asheville for Frances (2004) some low areas had 10-20 feet of flood water. We were out shopping (not realizing the amount of rain coming) and had to find an alternate route home because the way we got to the store was under about 6 feet of water in the hour we were in the store! If the numbers on the NHC's estimated rainfall amounts are even close, this will likely be much worse for those areas, too.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JumadukeFL
Registered User


Reged:
Posts: 4
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #115198 - Thu Sep 26 2024 06:33 PM

Well this is positively disconcerting. This is a zoomed-in image from the Wundermap, 6:30pm EST.

Well never mind. I can't insert the image and I can't delete this post. Argh.

Edited by JumadukeFL (Thu Sep 26 2024 06:39 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 359
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: FlYankee]
      #115199 - Thu Sep 26 2024 06:34 PM


Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
620 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
Helene has transitioned to Category 4...

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Helene
recently found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to
130 mph (215 km/h). The minimum central pressure has also decreased
to 947 mb (27.96 inches) based on dropsonde data.

SUMMARY OF 620 PM EDT...2220 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 84.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 237
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #115200 - Thu Sep 26 2024 07:13 PM

There is a slight bit of good news in there. A 948mb storm tends not to hide a ridiculous amount of strengthening so maybe it'll drop back down to a 3 in the shallow waters around Florida. I worked late, so I'm too tired to look up the SSTs.

I remember 2005 though. 2005 was, unfortunately, one of the worst years ever for low-barometer storms. I remember watching storm after stop after storm, dropping to 900 (Katrina and Rita)

But then Wilma showed up and dropped to 870 or 880 MB or something. With Wilma, they supported 185mph/300km/hr winds. In the countries that got hit when she was at her strongest, people had the paint sandblasted off their cars.

Wow, it's been almost two decades since we all lived on the site, watching storm after storm pound the GOM and East Coast. It was almost like a malevolent beast was in control of the weather.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
JMII
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 539
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Helene Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #115201 - Fri Sep 27 2024 08:43 AM

Surge in Ft Myers peaked at 5.44 ft just after midnight. Ian peaked at 7.24 for reference.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 6 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 19026

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center