cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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The broad area of low pressure across the Yucan we have been tracking for a few days is close to entering the Bay of Campeche and is starting to show signs of improvement along with some hints that conditions for the development of a quick TD or perhaps a named system could be rising. In fact, EURO ensemble implied development probabilities are nearing 50-50. As such, we are now starting a Lounge on this disturbance, recently Invest-tagged 91L.
This is primarily an eastern Mexico concern for the potential of some inland flooding and perhaps some challenging boating conditions.
Invest 91L has become TD with today's 4PM Advisory and the title has been updated accordingly.
Now Tropical Storm Barry 6/29/25 10AM CDT
Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Sun Jun 29 2025 11:05 AM)
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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91L continues improving while over the Yucatan and is now starting to enter the BOC as can been seen in the radar image below courtesy CyclonicWx.
Close inspection suggests that as soon as overnight tonight TCG could occur, as water temps are low and at least for now, upper level winds may even become supportive.
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2517
Loc: Austin, Tx
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NOAA Hysplit (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model, looking backwards 120 hours from 03z July 4, suggests an abundance of moisture from both 91E (possibly our future Barry in the Atlantic) and 95E to its south (likely to become Flossie in the eastern Pacific) will wind up in New Mexico.
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